Did the U.S. Encourage Hassan's Ouster?
The Wall Street Journal (Europe)
By David Wurmser
January 25, 1999
One might question the wisdom of the Clinton administration's ongoing attempts to secure Yasser Arafat a Palestinian state in the territory occupied by Israel after the 1967 war. But any policy that emboldens those who wish to strengthen Mr. Arafat's hand in neighboring Jordan as well must be regarded as madness. Yet, if recent reports coming out of the Arab world have any basis, this is precisely what U.S. officials appear to be doing by sowing uncertainty over who will rule Jordan after King Hussein.
King Hussein returned home last Tuesday from a half-year stay in the United States for cancer treatment amid rumors that his brother, Crown Prince Hassan bin Talal, would no longer be heir to his throne. This weekend those rumors were confirmed by the palace, which said the king was preparing to name one of his sons -- likely Hamza or Abdullah -- as crown prince.
For years, there have been many in Jordan who opposed Prince Hassan's eventual enthronement. These opponents include supporters of Syria, Saddam Hussein, and particularly the PLO -- all three of which identify Prince Hassan with policies they fear. In addition, numerous elements in the royal family itself, for self-interested reasons, see their own fortunes tied to the crowning of other candidates.
The prince's opponents also apparently include officials in the Clinton administration. As early as August, Arab papers reported that American officials were quite anxious about Prince Hassan's regency and eventual succession. They believed that since his designation as crown prince in 1965 he has led a "hard line" camp against the Palestinians, who form the majority of Jordanian citizens. They feared that Prince Hassan's lack of harmony with the kingdom's "demographic realities" could lead either to internal unrest or to Palestinian capital flight. Much of Jordan's financial structure is controlled by a few Palestinian families tied to Mr. Arafat. They also feared that in his attempts to survive, Prince Hassan would have to rely on Islamic fundamentalists. The Clinton administration communicated its fears to the Israelis. According to Israeli papers, in an Oct. 14 meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon and Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Bill Clinton "expressed grave concern" over Jordan's stability after the prince took over -- so much so that Mr. Clinton had asked to receive daily updates on King Hussein's health.
According to articles in the Arab press, before Christmas an American National Security Council official traveled to King Hussein's hospital bed in the United States to suggest that Prince Hamzah, the king's son with Queen Nur, rather than Prince Hassan, be crown prince. They tried to reassure King Hussein that the problem of Prince Hamzah's youth could be overcome through American security assistance and financial aid to the Kingdom. According to some reports, American officials were encouraged by the American-born Queen to press her husband. Other articles in Arab papers report that others within Jordan have been agitating for a similar change. And now newspapers in Amman draw attention to the symbolic significance of allowing only the powerful chief of Jordanian general intelligence, Samih al-Batikhi, to attend the meeting between King Hussein and Mr. Clinton on the eve of King Hussein's return. Mr. Batikhi is not among Prince Hassan's supporters.
This Jan. 5 meeting appears to have been the turning point. Just days before in an interview, King Hussein emphatically and quickly dismissed rumors that he had any intention of removing his brother as heir. And, according to Arab papers, during his pre-Christmas meeting, he bristled at the NSC official's suggestion to oust Prince Hassan and crown Hamzah -- at which point Queen Nur intervened and asked him to defer his decision to retain Prince Hassan. The tone changed dramatically after the Jan. 5 Clinton-Hussein meeting. By Jan. 8, detailed articles appeared in Arab papers explaining not only that King Hussein had changed his mind, but explaining the circumstances that led to the change and the sequence of events that would follow.
It is important to understand the agenda of Prince Hassan's opponents. Despite American skepticism, the prince is known for his concern for Palestinians and his eagerness to escort foreign dignitaries around abysmal refugee camps in the hopes of securing assistance for them. But Prince Hassan is also known to suspect Arafat personally and the PLO more broadly -- skepticism born of the bitter experiences of Black September 1970, when he and his family were targets of Arafat's murderous organization. American concerns that Prince Hassan cannot come to terms with Jordan's Palestinians, which blur the distinction in the prince's attitudes toward the PLO and Palestinians, suggest a tendency to see all Palestinian politics uncritically through the PLO's narrow lens.
The hopes of those opposing the prince have been bolstered recently by the involvement of American public relations advisor Frank Anderson, engaged by Prince Talal bin Muhammad on behalf of Queen Nur, according to knowledgeable sources. In an interview to an Israeli newspaper, Mr. Anderson admitted his long ties to the PLO as a former CIA official in Beirut in the 1970s and eventually as the head of the Near East division's operations branch. Mr. Anderson still speaks nostalgically and proudly of his ties with one of the deadliest terrorists of the 1960s and 1970s, Hassan Salame, the "Red Prince," killed by Israel in January 1979 for his role in the Munich Olympic massacre. In an interview with the Israeli newspaper Haaretz in November, Mr. Anderson said of Salame, "he was almost an American." Mr. Anderson recalls that during the fighting in Black September 1970, Salame headed Bureau 17, the elite PLO unit conducting the most dangerous and deadly missions during the fighting against Jordan's Hashemite ruling family. Mr. Anderson's long-time ties to the PLO, and his current affiliation with the anti-Hassan camp, contrast with Prince Hassan's history with the PLO.
America's Iraq policy would also be affected by the change in the Jordan's line of succession. Prince Hassan has openly challenged Saddam Hussein and strongly supports the Iraqi opposition. During a televised speech to a parliamentary meeting in late December, he lashed out at Saddam's regime, prompting Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz to single Prince Hassan out for personal condemnation. In contrast, Mr. Anderson has been one of the leading opponents of the Iraqi opposition, appearing last year on U.S. television to lambaste plans for a popular insurgency against Saddam, preferring a military coup instead. And Mr. Batikhi, the chief of intelligence, is known to have been deeply involved in helping the CIA's ill-fated military coup attempt in Iraq in 1996 (which was reported widely in the American press) against which the Iraqi opposition movements and Prince Hassan strongly warned as ill-conceived and infiltrated.
Other powerful forces in Jordan dislike Prince Hassan's support for the Iraqi opposition because they are either sympathetic to Saddam, or at least believe Jordan must maintain good relations with its neighbor regardless of its leader. And the small group of Palestinians, including Sabih al-Masri, who run the bulk of Jordan's financial structure, are also tied to Iraqi interests and oppose Prince Hassan.
Jordan has reached a watershed. Though small, its politics can influence the course of Arab politics by example. The country rests on a firmer political foundation than the fashionable European ideas of fascism and totalitarianism that have corrupted the region's other states. King Hussein asks little of his people and rarely demands sacrifices -- as have Mr. Assad, Mr. Arafat and Saddam -- to pursue personal ideas or grandeur. And its constitutional monarchy is developing into the Arab world's first genuine democracy. Great care should be taken in protecting and preserving that monarchy and encouraging its evolution.
Jordan needs a strong leader to navigate through trying times as it deals with democratization and faces a resurgent Saddam, an emerging PLO entity, and a regional climate as uncertain as any in decades. It would be a grave misstep if the reports emerging from the Arab world are true and some in the Clinton administration have allowed the United States to be entangled in the succession process in Jordan and have helped derail a clean, unambiguous succession to Prince Hassan. In fact, it opens the door for dangerous games in Amman -- a circumstance that could lead to the collapse of Jordan as we know it.
