I have never really noticed these earrings, but you are right that they would be good on Victoria.
The Connaught tiara is one of the tiaras frequently worn by the Queen and she rarely lends it to the other ladies. Over the last years it was only at the biggest events, the three royal weddings, that her daughters and Princess Birgitta were allowed to wear it. So I don't think that Sophia will start out with this one and at a regular Nobel Awards. Maybe for a bigger event like the King's 70th birthday, but even then she'll probably start out with one of the more often shared tiaras, like the buttons or the amethyst.
You might be right. Now that all three children of the King are married the next tiara gala after the 70th BD will probably be the King's 80th BD in 2026. That's a long time
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