Prognosis for Restoration in Nepal
What do you think about a restoration in Nepal?
I've been watching events in Nepal unfold for the past several years now, and I do consider that there is a fair chance for a restoration. Monarchists only need to worry if this misbegotten "Republic" starts showing signs of durability or functionality. To date, it has shown neither.
I realize that these boards tend to eschew in-depth political discussions [part of the reason I've elected to "lurk" until now...], so I won't clutter this post with too much of my own analysis of what's going on in Nepal. I have, however, posted a few lengthy threads on this subject on another royalty forum, which I shall link for anyone interested in catching up on events.
This thread was started April 10 last year, when the Constituent Assembly election took place and the King's fate seemed sealed:
CA Elections in Nepal - Monarchy Forum
This thread was started August 24 last year [when Prachanda took office], and continues to the present:
Nepal's New Order - Monarchy Forum
Essentially, my contention is that the Maoists' upset victory in the '08 polls is actually a
good thing for the King's long-term political prospects. The main parties in the SPA [Seven Party Alliance] had already reached an internal agreement back in December '07 to scrap the monarchy at the first sitting of the CA. The CA poll wasn't going to result in a monarchist vote on 5/28, no matter which party came in first.
But the SPA parties had entered into their tactical alliance with the Maoists on the understanding that there was no earthly way the Maoists could possibly win the April '08 polls. The SPA assumed the Nepalese people would obediently re-elect them, and the Maoists would fade into political irrelevance. Naive, yes, but this fatuous assumption seems to have been shared by India and the U.S.
Instead, the Maoists' unexpected clout in the CA completely scuttled the internal dynamics of the SPA/Maoist "cartel" and forced the SPA into a survival posture. Earlier this year, the SPA parties supported the Chief of Army Staff in a row with the Maoist cabinet, so as to maintain the Army's political independence and the SPA's own political survival. That row collapsed the Prachanda cabinet and brought a new, shaky coalition government into power in May.
If political moderates want to take back political initiative from the Maobadis, they need to patch over the deep fissures in their own ranks and re-fortify their alliance with the [still-Royalist] Army. The best path to this end, I am convinced, lies through the institution of the Crown.
I am glad that King Gyanendra has steadfastly refused to leave Nepal. There are certainly political developments to be exploited as the situation in that country unravels, and HM still has a sporting chance.
--- John K.
