Prime Ministers, and the constitutional role of the Norwegian Monarch

ROYAL NORWAY · Sep 11, 2017

We have a very tight parliamentary general election in Norway today (and after going through similar threads in the British and Danish forums) I decided to start this thread.

Three possibilities:

1. If the Government which consists of the Conservative Party and the Progress Party with the support of the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party gets a majority in the Storting, then Prime Minister Erna Solberg and her Government will continue, at least for now.

2. If the Labour Party, the Centre Party and the Socialist Left Party gets a majority in the Storting, then Prime Minister Erna Solberg will contact His Majesty the King and inform him that there are a new majority in the Storting and will ask him to contact Labour Leader Jonas Gahr Støre. He will then likely from a government with the parties mentioned above.

The formal resignation of the old government and appointment of the new one each take place at a special session of the Council of State. The new government is officially constituted when the King has signed a Royal Decree to this effect. Jonas Gahr Støre will then be the King's sixth Prime Minister.

3. If neither of the two blocks gets a majority in the Storting, then it will (perhaps) be up to the Green Party who tends to support alternative 2. But they have issued an ultimatum on stopping exploration and development of new oil and gas fields, demanding acceleration of the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Read about the changes of governments here:
Change of government - The Royal House of Norway

And about the King’s constitutional role here:
The King’s constitutional role - The Royal House of Norway

ROYAL NORWAY · Sep 12, 2017

Alternative 1 in my above post happened and there is no need to contact the King.

Muhler · Sep 12, 2017

Will there be a government reshuffle? And if that be the case, what happens?

ROYAL NORWAY · Sep 12, 2017

1. The Conservative Party, the Progress Party, the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party has a majority in the Storting.

2. The 2013-2017 Government (the Høyre Frp Cabinet), which consisted of the Conservative Party and the Progress Party, relied on parliamentary support from the Liberal Party and the Christian Democratic Party through a separate formal agreement giving them influence on policy. That Government will continue, at least for now.

3. The change in this period is that the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party don't want a formal agreement with a Conservative/Progress Government. They want a government with the Conservative Party alone (something they also wanted in the previous Storting period), but the Progress party wont support a government which they are not part of.

4. So what the heck happens now? There are rumors (although very unlikely) that the Liberal Party may join the government, but a government like that wont have a majority either. And most commentators (therefore) think the most likely scenario is that Prime Minister Erna Solberg (leader of the Conservative Party) and Minister of Finance Siv Jensen (leader of the Progress Party) will try to work with the Liberal Party and the Christian Democratic Party without an agreement.

But most importantly since this is a royal forum, If there were any changes in the government, then the King would have to be involved.

ROYAL NORWAY · Oct 20, 2017

The King presides over the Council of State at the Royal Palace today (as usual). The Crown Prince will also be in attendance.

The unusual thing today is that there are changes in the government:

1. Børge Brende quits as Foreign minister to be president of the World Economic Forum. He will be replaced by Defence Minister Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide (she will be the first woman foreign minister).

2. Minister of EEA and EU Affairs Frank Bakke-Jensen will replace Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide as Defence Minister.

3. Marit Berger Røsland replaces Frank Bakke-Jensen as Minister of EEA and EU Affairs.

NRK1 and TV2 News Channel sends live from The Palace Square (as usual on these events), the guard has marched around and the prime minister and her new ministers have come out.

The King also granted The Prime Minister an audience today (that happens once a month). The Crown Prince was also in attendance.

TLLK · Oct 20, 2017

Thank you for sharing this information RoyalNorway.? Congratulations to the PM and her party on their victory.

ROYAL NORWAY · Oct 20, 2017

You're very welcome! :flowers:

BTW, I forgot to mention in post 5 earlier today that the possibility that the Liberal Party enters the government has grown since I wrote post 4, so there may be changes again before Christmas.

ROYAL NORWAY · Dec 13, 2017

A divided Liberal Party (Centre) decided on Dec 9th to launch formal negotiations in January with the Conservative Party (Centre-right) and the Progress Party (Right-wing) to join the government.

Will they join the government? Most experts think so.

What do I think? I would say that there is about 70% chance that they join the government.

What would that mean? Not much.

Why? Because the government would still be ruling in a minority even if the Liberal Party is included, but it will be more difficult for the Christian Democratic Party to not support the government.

What will the Christian Democratic Party (centre/centre-right) do? The chances that they choose to do the same as the Liberal Party have increased.

What will happen now?

1. The formal negotiations with the the Conservative Party, the Progress Party and the Liberal Party will according to VG (newspaper) start on January 2th.

2. The internal plan is that the negotiations should be concluded in week 3, so that a new government, the second led by Erna Solberg, can be appointed on January 19th.

3. How will it happen? Erna Solberg will contact the palace and ask them to inform the King. The appointment of the new government will take place at a ordernary session of the Council of State at the palace on a Friday (January 19th is on a Friday). If it happens on another day, then a special session of the Council of State will take place. The new government is officially constituted when the King has signed a Royal Decree to this effect.

Read more about the situation, the changes of governments and the King’s constitutional role in my above posts:

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 9, 2018

King Olav's sixth prime minister Odvar Nordli died this evening at the age of 90.

An NRK article for Scandinavian speakers here:
https://www.nrk.no/norge/odvar-nordli-er-dod-1.13858925

Some facts about him:

Born: 3 November 1927.

Party: Labour.

MP: 1961 to 1985 (english wikipedia says 1981, but thats wrong).

Party Leader: He was never leader of the party, but was parliamentary leader from 1973 to 1976.

Minister of Local Government and Modernisation: 1971 to 1972.

Prime Minister: 1976 to 1981.

Vice President of the Storting: 1981 to 1985.

County Governor of Hedmark: 1981 to 1994.

Member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee: 1985 to 1996.

Reactions to his death this evening: It's all over the news here now.

The main story on the NRK1 23:00 news and on TV2 News Channel.

And the main story on the NRK, VG, Aftenposten and Dagbladet websites.

Labour Party leader Jonas Gahr Støre and Secretary General of NATO (and former labour leader and prime minister) Jens Stoltenberg praises him tonight.

The 89-year-old former Conservative Party leader and prime minister Kåre Willoch who is well-liked by both sides here (including a Labour supporter like me) said to NTB this evening that Nordli was an excellent man and a very talented prime minister. They wrote a book together in 2008.

From me: I was a great admirer of Odvar Nordli, and this couldn't have come at a worse time for the Labour Party. - Why? Because the party is in crisis due to power struggle following the election loss in September and because the deputy leader Trond Giske had to resign (two days ago) due to accusations of sexual harassment of several women.

The polls have shown that the support has gone down since the summer, and after the accusations against Giske came in December (somthing the party leadership handled very badly), the support has fallen even further. The polls now show the lowest support for the Labour Party in almost 100 years.

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 10, 2018

Read yesterday's post to understand what I'm writing about.

The Prime Minister's office announced today that Odvar Nordli would be buried with government honour at state expense.

We don't know the time and place yet, but funerals like this is usually attended by the King (sometimes accompanied by the Queen) and sent live on NRK1 and TV2 News Channel.

Official funerals in Norway:

Funeral with government honour at state expense:

Paid by the state, but no other involvement of the government.

Is usually given to leading statesmen, politicians, soldiers and, in rare cases, cultural workers as writers, actors, composers and athletes.

State Funeral:

Paid by the state and planned by the Royal Court, the Government/State and the Armed Forces.

There have been 4 state funerals since 1905.

The State Funeral of Queen Maud in 1938.

The State Funeral of Crown Princess Märtha in 1954.

The State Funeral of King Haakon VII in 1957.

The State Funeral of King Olav V in 1991.

The funerals of Queen Maud and Crown Princess Märtha was of course on a smaler scale than those of King Haakon VII and King Olav V.

Mbruno · Jan 10, 2018

ROYAL NORWAY said:
A divided Liberal Party (Centre) decided on Dec 9th to launch formal negotiations in January with the Conservative Party (Centre-right) and the Progress Party (Right-wing) to join the government.

Will they join the government? Most experts think so.

What do I think? I would say that there is about 70% chance that they join the government.

What would that mean? Not much.

Why? Because the government would still be ruling in a minority even if the Liberal Party is included, but it will be more difficult for the Christian Democratic Party to not support the government.

What will the Christian Democratic Party (centre/centre-right) do? The chances that they choose to do the same as the Liberal Party have increased.

What will happen now?

1. The formal negotiations with the the Conservative Party, the Progress Party and the Liberal Party will according to VG (newspaper) start on January 2th.

2. The internal plan is that the negotiations should be concluded in week 3, so that a new government, the second led by Erna Solberg, can be appointed on January 19th.

3. How will it happen? Erna Solberg will contact the palace and ask them to inform the King. The appointment of the new government will take place at a ordernary session of the Council of State at the palace on a Friday (January 19th is on a Friday). If it happens on another day, then a special session of the Council of State will take place. The new government is officially constituted when the King has signed a Royal Decree to this effect.

Read more about the situation, the changes of governments and the King’s constitutional role in my above posts:

Who countersigns a royal decree appointing a new prime minister ?

In the Netherlands, the constitution says that royal decrees appointing a prime minister are countersigned by the appointed prime minister himself, which is rather dumb if you ask me,

In Spain, on the other hand, the constitution says that a royal decree appointing a new PM is countersigned by the speaker (president) of the lower House of parliament , which makes more sense,

In Belgium, i was told that they have come up with a pragmatic solution; the outgoing PM countersigns the royal decree appointing a new PM and, then, in the sequel, the incoming PM countersigns the royal decree exonerating the previous one. I on't know what happens if the two above-referenced persons are the same.

Swedes and Brits, for different reasons, don't have to worry about those details, In Sweden, the PM is no longer appointed by royal decree, but rather by the speaker of the parliament directly, who signs the PM's letter of appointment (the King merely witnesses the swearing-in of the cabinet at a special Council of State).

Cinversely, in the UK, there isn't actually any official appointment of the PM; the Queen simply summons the leader of the majority party to the Palace and asks him or her to form a government; he or she "kisses hands" and automatically becomes the PM. However, note that the British PM is also technically the First Lord of the Treasury and that particular appointment requires Letters Patent from the sovereign, which, however, do not have to be countersigned by anybody else, I suppose.

How is it done in Norway or in Denmark for that matter ? I have never been able to find that information.

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 11, 2018

1. First, let's go through The Council of State which take place each Friday at 11:00:

The Council of State - The Royal House of Norway

The King presides over the Council of State, Friday at 11.00 hours. The meeting is held in the Council Chamber at the Royal Palace.

Decisions made by the Government as a single body are made in the Council of State. This is presided over by the King, and such decisions are said to be made by “the King in the Council of State”. All acts of legislation and other decisions in the Council of State must be sanctioned (means signed) by the King and countersigned by the Prime Minister before they can take effect.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/the-government/the-government-at-work/the-council-of-state/id270325/

Before matters are presented in the Council of State, they are discussed at the latest at the government conference the preceding day. Therefore there is no discussion of matters in the Council of State, but the King may ask questions.

Each matter is divided into two parts: a presentation, in which the minister provides a written account of the matter in the form of a government memorandum and his or her assessment of it, and a recommendation on behalf of his or her ministry.

In meetings of the Council of State, the King asks each minister in turn whether his or her ministry has any matters for the Council of State. Those who do, present the matter(s). When the King has given his approval, the decision is made. The minutes of each meeting of the Council of State are signed by the King and all the members of government who took part. As a general rule, the King is not familiar with the matters until they are presented to him, but the Prime Minister has monthly meetings with the King on matters of principle.

Why must all acts of legislation and other decisions in the Council of State be countersigned by the Prime Minister (in command matters by the Defense Minister) before they can take effect? There is a simple answer to that. It is done to exonerate the King for personal responsibility for the decisions he formally makes.

That is also the reason to why the minutes (also known as protocols) of each meeting of the Council of State are signed by all the members of government who took part.

2. And now to your answer: Who countersigns a royal decree appointing a new prime minister? Well, now it gets a bit more complicated.

Change of government - The Royal House of Norway

The formal resignation of the old government and appointment of the new one each take place at a special session of the Council of State. The new government is officially constituted when the King has signed a Royal Decree to this effect.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/the-government/the-government-at-work1/change-of-government/id270340/

On the basis of this, a change of government proceeds as follows:

After the Storting (Parliament) has been informed, the Government’s application to resign is submitted in a regular or extraordinary session of the Council of State.

Once the application has been received, the King requests the outgoing Government to continue as a caretaker government until a new government can be formed. The King will then normally ask the outgoing Prime Minister for advice as to who he should approach with regard to forming a new government.

The outgoing Prime Minister will normally advise the King to approach one of the leaders in the Storting – the leader of the largest party or the largest opposition party. The Prime Minister may also advise the King to approach all parliamentary leaders or the President of the Storting. The King will normally follow the Prime Minister’s advice and summon the person(s) concerned to the Royal Palace.

When the person who has been instructed by the King to seek to form a new government, informs him that a government is ready to be appointed, both of the necessary decisions regarding a change of government are made in a session of the Council of State – regular or extraordinary depending on the circumstances. This is the last Council of State session attended by the outgoing Government.

In this session of the Council of State, the King and the outgoing Government appoint the new Government, with effect from a specified point in time. At the same time the King accepts the outgoing Government’s resignation, with effect from the same point in time. This point in time, normally a few hours later, is the exact time for the change of government.

After their last meeting of the Council of State, the members of the outgoing Government return to their ministries for the last time, after having met the general public and the press outside the entrance to the Royal Palace.

At the exact time for the change of government the new Government – already appointed by the King and the outgoing Government - will come to the Royal Palace for their first Council of State session. Their first decisions will be on which minister is to head which ministry.

After their first Council of State session, and after having met the general public and the press outside the entrance to the Royal Palace, the members of the new Government will go to their respective ministries for the first time. There they meet their predecessors, who have now resigned, for a simple handing-over ceremony. The members of the previous government then leave their offices for the last time.

A you can see, the King and the outgoing Government appoint the new Government, while at the same time the King accepts the outgoing Government’s resignation.

How is it done? The King signs a Royal Decree to this effect, which the outgoing prime minister then countersigns.

Why must the outgoing prime minister countersigns the royal decree appointing a new government? Again, It is done to exonerate the King for personal responsibility for the decisions he formally makes.

And what happens when the (already appointed) new Government turns up to their first Council of State? The same as I explained in point 1. The only change now is that the King must sign another decree on which ministry the new ministers are to lead (of course, it is only a formality since it has already been decided in advance). And yes, the new PM (due to the same reasons I mentioned above) must countersigns it. The King will in the same way also appoint new State Secretaries (a kind of deputy minister, but they are not part of the government).

What happens if the sitting government/prime minister is re-elected (that means a majority in the Storting)? Nothing. - But if other parties join the government (which is likely to happen now) then they will turn up to ordinary or a special session of the Council of State where the new ministers is appointed by the King (the media will then call it a new government).

In other news: The formal negotiations with the the Conservative Party, the Progress Party and the Liberal Party started on January 2th. The internal plan is that the negotiations should be concluded in week 3, so that a ''new government, the second led by Erna Solberg, can be appointed'' (as the media says it) on January 19th (there are rumors in some of the papers that it could happen before). Read posts 1, 4, 7 and 8 for more information on the political situation and the King’s constitutional role.

The situation now: The Prime Minister had to take a break from the talks with the Minister of Finance Siv Jensen (Leader of the Progress Party) and Trine Skei Grande (Leader of the Liberal Party) on Tuesday when she traveled to the US where she met Trump yesterday. She is already back in Norway today to continue the negotiations.

Siv Jensen has also been distracted by other things after a central politician and MP for the Progress Party admitted yesterday that he had sent porn to young party members (including a 14-year-old).

And the crisis in the Labour Party (which I mentioned in post 9 where I wrote about the death of former Prime Minister Odvar Nordli) continues.

There is also been several accusations about sexual harassment against the leader of the Norwegian Young Conservatives Kristian Tonning Riise (he retired from that position last night). He is also an MP for the Conservative Party.

From me: As one said on twitter yesterday: Really glad we have a unifying and popular apolitical monarch as head of state now.

Parts of this post was also a response to another poster who sent me a PM and asked about some constitutional stuff. - And thanks to those who uses the thanks button.

Mbruno · Jan 11, 2018

ROYAL NORWAY said:
1. First, let's go through The Council of State which take place each Friday at 11:00:

The Council of State - The Royal House of Norway

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/the-government/the-government-at-work/the-council-of-state/id270325/

Why must all acts of legislation and other decisions in the Council of State be countersigned by the Prime Minister (in command matters by the Defense Minister) before they can take effect? There is a simple answer to that. It is done to exonerate the King for personal responsibility for the decisions he formally makes.

That is also the reason to why the minutes (also known as protocols) of each meeting of the Council of State are signed by all the members of government who took part.

2. And now to your answer: Who countersigns a royal decree appointing a new prime minister? Well, now it gets a bit more complicated.

Change of government - The Royal House of Norway

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/the-government/the-government-at-work1/change-of-government/id270340/

A you can see, the King and the outgoing Government appoint the new Government, while at the same time the King accepts the outgoing Government’s resignation.

How is it done? The King signs a Royal Decree to this effect, which the outgoing prime minister then countersigns.

Why must the outgoing prime minister countersigns the royal decree appointing a new government? Again, It is done to exonerate the King for personal responsibility for the decisions he formally makes.

And what happens when the (already appointed) new Government turns up to their first Council of State? The same as I explained in point 1. The only change now is that the King must sign another decree on which ministry the new ministers are to lead (of course, it is only a formality since it has already been decided in advance). And yes, the new PM (due to the same reasons I mentioned above) must countersigns it. The King will in the same way also appoint new State Secretaries (a kind of deputy minister, but they are not part of the government).

What happens if the sitting government/prime minister is re-elected (that means a majority in the Storting)? Nothing. - But if other parties join the government (which is likely to happen now) then they will turn up to ordinary or a special session of the Council of State where the new ministers is appointed by the King (the media will then call it a new government).

In other news: The formal negotiations with the the Conservative Party, the Progress Party and the Liberal Party started on January 2th. The internal plan is that the negotiations should be concluded in week 3, so that a ''new government, the second led by Erna Solberg, can be appointed'' (as the media says it) on January 19th (there are rumors in some of the papers that it could happen before). Read posts 1, 4, 7 and 8 for more information on the political situation and the King’s constitutional role.

The situation now: The Prime Minister had to take a break from the talks with the Minister of Finance Siv Jensen (Leader of the Progress Party) and Trine Skei Grande (Leader of the Liberal Party) on Tuesday when she traveled to the US where she met Trump yesterday. She is already back in Norway today to continue the negotiations.

Siv Jensen has also been distracted by other things after a central politician and MP for the Progress Party admitted yesterday that he had sent porn to young party members (including a 14-year-old).

And the crisis in the Labour Party (which I mentioned in post 9 where I wrote about the death of former Prime Minister Odvar Nordli) continues.

There is also been several accusations about sexual harassment against the leader of the Norwegian Young Conservatives Kristian Tonning Riise (he retired from that position last night). He is also an MP for the Conservative Party.

From me: As one said on twitter yesterday: Really glad we have a unifying and popular apolitical monarch as head of state now.

Parts of this post was also a response to another poster who sent me a PM and asked about some constitutional stuff. - And thanks to those who uses the thanks button.

.

Thanks, Royal Norway ! That pretty much answered my question,

My problem with the Norwegian way of handling a government transition, which is similar to the Belgian practice, is that, in theory, the outgoing PM could block the appointment of a new government by refusing to countersign it, I know that doesn't happen because all Norwegian poltical parties are supposed to be ultimately loyal to parliamentary democracy, but, still, a better solution would have been for the appointment of a new PM to be countersigned by a neutral third party such as the Speaker of the Parliament as it is the case for example in the Soanish constitution. I also know, however, that the Norwegian constitution does not allow that.

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 14, 2018

5 points about today's happenings:

1. The Conservative Party, the Progress Party and the Liberal Party have today agreed to form a government.

2. Erna Solberg has contacted the Royal Court and asked them to inform HM the King.

3. The three parties will use the coming week to discuss ministerial posts.

4. The internal plan was that a ''new government, the second led by Erna Solberg, could be appointed'' (as the media says it) in a ordinary session of The Council of State on Friday January 19th. That will not happen. - Why? Becauce the King and the Prime Minister will on that day attend the funeral of former Prime Minister Odvar Nordli at Tangen Church in Stange.

5. So when will it happen? Most likely in the days before (perhaps on January 18th) or a few days after in a special session of The Council of State.

BTW: See photos/articles of a very happy King enjoying himself at the Norwegian Skiing Championships at Gåsbu in Hamar municipality, 13 - 14 January, in these two posts:
http://www.theroyalforums.com/forum...t-2-february-2015-a-38180-11.html#post2062928

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 16, 2018

A special session of The Council of State will take place at the palace tomorrow, where the new ministers will be appointed by HM the King.

BTW: As one can read in posts 9 and 12, the Norwegian political elite is in crisis after the MeToo campaign.

And it goes from worse to worse, even Trine Skei Grande (the Leader of the Liberal Party and from tomorrow, the Minister of Culture) is being caught up in it. She said to Aftenposten today: ''I'm not an abuser.''

So one can safely say that there is a ''political Ragnarök'' here, and I think we should be very glad that we are a constitutional monarchy with a beloved and unifying monarch.

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 17, 2018

The special session of The Council of State will take place at the palace at 14:00 today, where the new ministers will be appointed by the King. The Crown Prince will also be in attendance.

NRK1 will send live from The Palace Square from 13:50 to 16:00.

TV2 News Channel is allready live from the Square with their political analyst/reporter Kjetil Løset (one of my favourite journalists BTW).

Here are two videos from The Council of State in 2013 when we had a change of government:

The Labour-led majority government of Jens Stoltenberg resignes:

The Conservative-led minority government of Erna Solberg is appointed:

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 17, 2018

Today's events:

1. The new (or extended) government has now been appointed.

2. The television stations and photographers were not allowed into The Council Chamber. - Why not? Because this is only allowed when there is a change of government (see the videos from The Council of State from 2013 in the post I wrote earlier today).

3. The Liberal Party got 3 ministers and several state secretaries (which meant that some of the sitting ministers were forced to resign).

4. There was also other changes in the government. - Read more here:
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/changes-in-the-government/id2586129/

See my above posts for more information.

ROYAL NORWAY · Jan 19, 2018

ROYAL NORWAY · Mar 18, 2018

Well, it's time with a post again, I think.

Read about the King’s constitutional role, the changes of governments and the positions of the parties and stuff in my above posts.

The situation regarding the President of the Storting (parliament):
Olemic Thommessen resigned as president on March 15 after The Christian Democratic Party decided (on March 8th) to not support him anymore due to the construction scandal at the Storting building.
The position of the President of the Storting is considered very important here - and was therefore covered by the media with hours-long broadcasts on TV2 News Channel and NRK (and with a bunch of articles).

Read about it in this informative article from Norway Today:
Olemic Thommessen withdraws as President - Norway Today

The Christian Democratic Party (Support Party to the Government) pointed out that they still wanted a president from the Conservative Party (the largest party in the government and on the non-socialist side).
The Conservatives then chose Tone Wilhelmsen Trøen - she was elected by the MPs on March 15th and became the second female President of the Storting.

Read about it here:
All Hail President Trøen - Norway Today.

From me: The King has no role when it comes to the resignation/election of the president, but he was kept informed by the Presidium of the Storting.

The situation regarding the government:
Well, Norway is in its biggest political crisis since 2000 when Kjell Magne Bondevik had to resign as prime minister.

I don't want to go into politics here, but to explain it short:

1. Sylvi Listhaug (the controversial Minister of Justice, Public Security and Immigration from the Right-winged Progress Party) angered almost all the other parties (especially the Labour Party) with some things she wrote on facebook on March 10th.

2. Erna Solberg (Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party) and Siv Jensen (Minister of Finance and leader of the Progress Party) wanted her to delete the facebook post, but she refused.

3. She deleted it after a few days, but the damage had already been done, and she had to apologize several times in the Storting Chamber.

4. That didn't help - and the Labour Party, Socialist Left Part, Centre Party, Green Party now supports a motion of no confidence against her (put forward by the Red Party).

So what the heck happens now?

1. Well, if the Christian Democratic Party supports the motion on Tuesday (they will decide tomorrow), then the prime minister and her minority government (which consists of the Conservative Party, the Progress Party and the Liberal Party) has no other choice than to resign.

2. She can remove Listhaug or give her another post in the government - because the other parties have said they will accept that, but the Progress Party refuses.
They want Listhaug (who is very important to them and their voters) where she is.

Will The Christian Democratic Party support the motion?

The commentators/experts: They are quite divided in that question right now.

What do I think:

No (60%). - Why?
They was in a minority government with the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party from 2001 to 2005.
They went to elections with the same goal in 2009, 2013 and 2017.
They performed poorly in the 2017 election and lost most voters to non-socialists parties.
Erna Solberg is very popular in their party (also among their voters).
The Liberal Party joined the government in January (see the above posts), and most commentators thought that they (the Christian Democratic Party) were about to do the same in coming months.

Yes (40%). - Why?
They are pretty fed up with the Progress Party (especially with Sylvi Listhaug).
They agree with the socialist parties in some important issues.

What happens if the PM resigns:

1. She must go to the King and ask him to contact the leader of the largest party in the Storting (that will be Jonas Gahr Støre - Leader of the Labour Party) or the leader of another party - especially if that party is supported by a coalition with the greatest support in the Storting (that will be herself).

2. Will she have enough support in the Storting to form a new government? It will be difficult for her (especially to gain the support of the Progress Party - who wont support a government which they are not part of).

Read about the situation here:
Listhaug’s ”Canossagang”, bends the knee - Norway today
Decisive Days for Listhaug & Government - Norway Today
Will not accept Listhaug to be pushed around - Norway Today
Resigns if KrF supports vote of no confidence - Norway Today
Not even close to cigar, says Willoch - Norway Today

Tatiana Maria · Mar 19, 2018

Royal Norway: Thank you for sustaining this stimulating thread.

The continuation of scandals within these last months has plainly become tumultous and embarrassing for the political parties. But granted that no larger crisis than outrage against abrasive Facebook posts has occurred since 18 years ago, Norwegian politics are clearly kept in immaculate condition.

If the Prime Minister resigns, whom would the parties and the Norwegian people be expecting her to ask the King to contact?

ROYAL NORWAY · Mar 19, 2018

Well, to understand this, people have to read post 19 from last night.

The Christian Democratic Party has this afternoon decided to support that a motion of no confidence will be put forward tomorrow (at 10:00).

A government crisis due to a facebook post? Yes, that is Norway for you (and we Norwegians can be pretty dramatic).

What happens now?

1. The Christian Democratic Party's decision will forse PM Erna Solberg to the Storting Chamber where she most likely wil put forward a kabinettspørsmål (vote of confidence).

2. If The Christian Democratic Party then voted against it, then the PM and her government will resign.

Two main questions:

But will The Christian Democratic Party vote against a prime minister who is generally well-liked (also among their own voters)?

Or is The Christian Democratic Party only doing this to set an example - and say that they are fed up with that Sylvi Listhaug woman?

Well, most commentators (and I agree) would say about 50% to both questions (so everything can happen).

What will happen if the PM and her government resigns?

Tatiana Maria said:
Royal Norway: Thank you for sustaining this stimulating thread.

The continuation of scandals within these last months has plainly become tumultous and embarrassing for the political parties. But granted that no larger crisis than outrage against abrasive Facebook posts has occurred since 18 years ago, Norwegian politics are clearly kept in immaculate condition.

If the Prime Minister resigns, whom would the parties and the Norwegian people be expecting her to ask the King to contact?

You're very welcome! ?

She must go to the King and ask him to contact the leader of the largest party in the Storting (that will be Jonas Gahr Støre - Leader of The Labour Party):

1. He can then try to form a minority government which only consist of the Labour party, or he can try to form a minority government with The Centre Party and The Socialist Left Party.

2. Both alternatives will be difficult since it is a non-socialist majority in the Storting.

She can also ask the King to contact the leader of another party (that wil mean the leader of the largest non-socialist party in the storting) - especially if that party is supported by a coalition with the greatest support in the Storting (that will be herself as the leader of The Conservative Party):

1. She can then try to form a minority government which only consist of The Conservative Party, or she can try to form a minority government with The Liberal Party and Christian Democratic Party (or a minority government with the Progress Part).

2. These three alternatives will be very difficult since The Progress Party wont support a government which they are not part of - and The Christian Democratic Party wont support a government which consist of The Progress Party.

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Confidence in politicians in Norway:

Well, after various sex scandals and the construction scandal at the Storting building, the trust in politicians, and political parties (which is usually quite high here), is now at a low point.

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The CP Couple:

As people can read in post 123 in the ''Norway: Republic or monarchy?'' thread, the CP couple have their problems - but as someone said it on facebook last week, they are far better than the alternative.

So I think we can say that this political soap opera (which has lasted since December last year) has actually been quite good for Haakon and MM.

Muhler · Mar 19, 2018

Couldn't a government reshuffle be a palatable alternative?
Or is the opposition determined on outing Sylvi Listhaugh?

Why is the statement on Facebook so controversial that it merits a vote of no confidence?
Or is it more a case of seizing on an opportunity of annoying the government as much as possible?
Is there a public interest in the opposition taking over now? After all that is the ultimate outcome.

ROYAL NORWAY · Mar 19, 2018

Question 1: No, as I wrote in post 19, the Progress Party refuses to move Listhaug (who is very important to them and their voters).

Question 2: Everyone is determined on outing Sylvi Listhaug, including the two other government parties, but The Progress Party refuses.

Question 3: What she said was very hurtful to Labour supporters (especially to the victims of the utøya attacks in 2011).

Read this article to see what she said (also posted in post 19):
Listhaug’s ”Canossagang”, bends the knee - Norway today

Question 4: No, Erna Solberg is quite popular with the Christian Democratic Party (and its leadership).

Question 5: The answer to that is a big NO.

The Labour party is dogged by sex scandals, unpopular politicians and low poll numbers.
Yes, I'm an Labour Supporter, but I have no trouble admitting the truth.

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I will come back with more information tomorrow, especially about the King's constitutional role in all of this, because he will be heavily involved if the PM resigns.

Muhler · Mar 19, 2018

Thanks.

As a matter of fact I read about the government crisis on TV2 (DK) tonight. The first time I read about it actually, because it hasn't reached the prime time news yet here in DK.

Yes, I understand the reaction by the labor party. However my next questions may be brutal and controversial, so please forgive me for that.

So, if the PM decides to resign and call for a general election (I assume it's the PM who calls a general election, not the King.), the major government parties are almost certain to win, and as such form a new government.
How about the progress party? What are the opinion polls saying about them? Will they go back or forward?
Would the rest of the government coalition prefer to govern without the Progress Party? In which case a general election will be a not undesirable option. Or is the influence of the Progress Party too important? (I noticed you mentioned that the Progress Party will not support the government without being in the government. - But not doing so, means little or no direct influence.)

It sounds to me like the Progress Party refuses to back down, because:
A) They are too stubborn and won't be able to back down without losing face. - Which to me sounds pretty unlikely.
B) They are looking for a way to get out of the government coalition while at the same time being seen as standing up for their views in the eyes of their voters.
C) Their involvement in the government have cost them too many votes and this is a way to reclaim some of their voters. I.e by standing up for their core values, even to the point of risking the government.
D) And this leads me to my next question: In the eyes of the general public, does the Progress Party have a point? I.e. is the opposition, here in particular the Labor Party, being seen as being too soft on immigration, integration and cracking down on crime perpetrated by immigrants?
In which case the refusal of the Progress Party to back down makes perfect sense.

I suspect that a vote of no confidence, which the opposition is almost forced to call for, may very well backfire, because if a general election is called now, the main topic may very well be immigration?
A soft point of the opposition, I imagine, and right up the alley for the Progress Party.
- Or is my analyses completely off the mark?

Muhler · Mar 20, 2018

Follow up.

I see that the Minister of Justice has resigned, so no need for the government to resign or call a general election.

Now what? Will the new Justice Minister also be one from the Progress Party?
Or will there be a reshuffle?

And for you, Royal Norway. You may find this comment from the Danish Minister for Integration interesting. https://politiken.dk/indland/politi...arer-Listhaug-Norsk-debat-har-været-hysterisk

ROYAL NORWAY · Mar 20, 2018

Today's happenings:

1. Sylvi Listhaug has resigned as Minister of Justice, Public Security and Immigration.

2. The Progress Party (Right-wing) was prepared to leve the government to support her, and PM Erna Solberg, Leader of the Conservative Party (Centre-right), was prepered to put forward a kabinettspørsmål (vote of confidence).

3. According to reliable sources in the media both the PM and Siv Jensen (Minister of Finance and leader of the Progress Party) was surprised over Listhaug's decision.

What happens now:

1. The Royal Court has been asked by the Prime Minister's office to inform the King about Listhaug's decision.

2. His Majesty The King grants The Prime Minister an extraordinary audience at 11:45. The Crown Prince will also be in attendance (audiences with the PM usually happens one Friday every month).

3. His Majesty the King presides over an extraordinary Council of State at the Royal Palace at 12:00. The Crown Prince will also be in attendance (ordinary Councils of State are held every Friday).
Listhaug will officially resign and Per Sandberg (Minister of Fisheries from the Progress Party) will temporary take over.
The King will then sign a Royal Decree to this effect.

And to Muhler's two posts:

General elections in Norway:
1. According to the Norwegian constitution, parliamentary elections must be held every four years. Rather uniquely, the Norwegian parliament may not be dissolved before such a parliamentary four-year term has ended, which in practice makes snap elections impossible to hold without breaking the constitutional electoral law of the country.

2. All general elections in Norway since 1945 have occurred every four years (every third year from 1815 to 1945).

3. The next general election will take place in September 2021 (motions/votes of no confidence or resignations of PMs/governments doesn't changes that at all).

4. If a PM/government is forced to resign, then she/he must go to the king and ask him to contact the leader of the largest party in the Storting or the leader of another party - especially if that party is supported by a coalition with the greatest support in the Storting (that could mean the sitting PM).
The new or sitting PM must then try to form a majority/minority government.

I won't go into politics here, but I can say this:
No, the Progress Party are not looking for a way to get out of the government - but if Listhaug had not resigned voluntarily, then they would have gone with her.
Why? Because she is (as I said in the previous posts) very important for them and their voters.

The Progress Party's poll numbeers since the 2017 general election: 10 to 16% (10% is pretty bad - 16% is very good).

Is this crisis good or bad for them? Well, most commentators will say (and I agree) that its good for them.

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BTV, I answered the question about the new Justice Minister above in this post.

Muhler · Mar 20, 2018

Thanks Royal Norway. ?

I learned something today.

Here is a most interesting portrait of Sylvi Listhauge, for your reading pleasure.
https://politiken.dk/video/udland/art6390486/Sylvi-Listhaug-bliver-en-martyr
The DK paper Politiken has a political stance that is directly opposite of that of the Norwegian Progress Party, hence why the portrait is interesting.

ROYAL NORWAY · Mar 21, 2018

You're welcome, Muhler.

And thanks for the two articles! ?

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These have been some very good days for the Progress Party (just as I thought it would be). A Kantar TNS poll for TV2 has them at 20% (up 10% from March 7) - their highest numbers in 7 years.
Will it last? Probably not (since they always does well under pressure).
Another poll has them at 15% (more usual numbers for them).
The Kantar TNS poll for TV2 also show that 84% think it was right of Listhaug to resign.

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Well, the Christian Democratic Party is now rid of its biggest political enemy (Listhaug), which makes it much easier for them to join the government (as the Liberal Party did back in January).
And both Erna Solberg and Siv Jensen stated yesterday that the dor is still open for them (despite the fact that they nearly forced the government to resign).
Will they do it (join the government, I mean)? Yes, I think they will - but not before in September or October.
What happens then? The same that happened when the Liberal Party became part of the government in January (see posts 14, 15, 16 and 17).
HM The King will again be heavily involved.
And most importantly, Erna Solberg's dream about a majority government comes true.

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If the PM had resigned yesterday, and Labour Leader Jonas Gahr Støre had been asked by the King to form a government? Well, then we had ended up with a prime minister who has a personal friendship with the CP couple (to the annoyance of the Conservative Party and the Progress Party).
And if the King (God forbid) had died within the next 4 years, then we had in fact ended up with a monarch who has a personal friendship with his prime minister.
Do I need to say more?

Muhler · Mar 21, 2018

Thanks, Royal Norway, as usual a great reply. ?

Why wait until the autumn to join the government? Because they will have the whole of the summer to work out a new basis for a majority government before joining?

I'm sure the CP-couple are professional enough not to be influenced too much politically should the opposition be in power. - But it will of course lead to criticism.

I read an interesting political analyses today.
The 68 generation, especially the men are now in considerable numbers joining parties like the Progress Party, and their equivalents all over Europe. That is nationalist parties who are in position where they either have joined a government coalition or excersize direct political influence.
Interesting because the 68 generation typically started out as very left wing.
- I have long had the feeling that certainly Haakon would have felt very much at home in the academic milieus back around 1968.

ROYAL NORWAY · Mar 28, 2018

Thanks Muhler! ?

Well, for the Christian Democratic Party to join a government that the Progress Party is a part of, is a VERY BIG step for them to take, so they need time to debate it.
But I don't think they have that much choice. - Why?
1. If they continue to stand outside the government, they will be squeezed from both sides, which has been the case since the election in 2017 - and that have cost them some voters.
2. If they switch side politically, they will most likely be voted out of the Storting in 2021, since they are essentially losing voters to non-socialist parties (the government parties).

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Yes, the CP couple are professional enough not to be influenced too much politically should the opposition be in power, but that is not the problem, I think.
The problem is as I have written in other threads (and as you mentioned above), that they will be criticised by both the non-socialist parties and the media.
Per Sandberg (MP from 1997 to 2017, first deputy leader of the Progress Party from 2006, Minister of Fisheries from 2015 and temporary Minister of Justice, Public Security and Immigration from 2018) accused Haakon in 2014 of being a Labour Party supporter and for interfering in politics.

BTW, Sandberg is known for his bad temper and controversial comments.
In 1997, a court slapped him with a 3,000 kroner (around 400 euros) fine for hitting an asylum seeker from the former Yugoslavia at a late-night party at his home.
He has also been in several conflicts with the Christian Democratic Party, but unlike Sylvi Listhaug, he has been more careful after he joined the government in 2015 (and has been praised for that by the leader of the Christian Democratic Party Knut Arild Hareide).
Will he get the job (of Justice Minister) permanently? Yes, the job is his if he wants it, and he is currently thinking about it until to after easter.
He thanked no to two heavy ministerial posts in 2013 (because he didn't want the pressure). - And last week he said he was afraid that his past comments and actions could create problems for the prime minister and his family if he thanked yes to such a heavy ministerial post.

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And then to your third point:

I will describe Haakon as a politically interested intellectual who belongs in the Centre-left category (just like me), and there is nothing wrong with that, but in his role as a future apolitical constitutional monarch, he must learn two very important things:

1. To not make friends with politicians.

2. To keep his mouth shut when it comes to political matters (especially those that can be perceived as party political).

And after seeing most of the King's speeches and interviews, I can almost certainly say that HM belongs in the same category, but he is much more careful in the way he speaks - and he doesn't befriends politicians.

Prime Ministers, and the constitutional role of the Norwegian Monarch

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