Poor Felipe can't catch a break, the republicans have the keys to unlock a possible coalition. I'm anxious for Leonor, who has to (should) be sworn in in front of the Cortes Generales before the end of the year.
Some details about the process to come, from this article:
https://www.revistavanityfair.es/ar...pe-vi-y-a-leonor-y-su-jura-de-la-constitucion
The Cortes Generales will be constituted on August 17, the same day on which Leonor begins her military training in Zaragoza, and if little more than two months later the Congress has not invested a candidate, they would be dissolved, coinciding with the moment in which the heiress should swear the Constitution.
The tight result of the elections of July 23 and the difficulties that are presented to both the PP and the PSOE to gather enough support to govern opens again the possibility of a blockade and the repetition of the elections, something that Spain already experienced recently and twice, in 2016 and 2019.
It is a situation that, as happened then, conditions the agenda and the constitutional role of King Felipe VI, and this time it could also affect that of his daughter, Princess Leonor, who this autumn reaches the age of majority and therefore will be responsible for swearing the Constitution.
The monarch already awaits a rather atypical and busy August since his official holidays must begin, as is traditional, the first week of that month – coinciding with those of the President of the Government – when he settles in the Marivent palace and his agenda is still quite public, with dinners and receptions, the family photos of rigor and the dispute of the Copa del Rey of sailing. Then he usually reserves a few days for a private vacation with his family in destinations that are never known, but this summer he will have a hard time finding gaps because on August 15 he is scheduled to attend the inauguration of Santiago Peña, the new president of Paraguay, an unavoidable appointment for him and with which he always complies when a new Latin American president is invested.
Only two days later, on August 17, the Congress and the Senate are constituted simultaneously, and the king begins to play one of the most important institutional roles entrusted to him by the Constitution. That same day he must receive in Zarzuela the acting president of the Congress – in this case, Meritxell Batet – who will inform him in person about the composition of the chambers and will deliver the lists. Coincidentally, this also coincides with the day on which Princess Leonor begins her training at the General Military Academy of Zaragoza and it seems very unlikely that her father will not be present on such a fundamental day for her, so it will be necessary to make bobbin lace in the royal agenda (it would be normal for her to go to Zaragoza in the morning while the deputies and senators take possession of their seats and then return to Madrid as soon as possible).
In the following days, the king must convene consultations with "the representatives designated by the political groups with parliamentary representation," according to the Constitution. The purpose of these consultations – all the political forces that have obtained at least one seat are called, although some decline the invitation due to ideology – is to provide the monarch with the necessary information on the party composition of the Congress, in order to be able to propose the candidate with the best chances of being invested in the chamber (usually the one of the most voted party, in this case Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is the first to be given the option). It is a decision of course always agreed with the parties and the king must preserve his institutional neutrality when taking it, but in theory he can even propose a candidate who is not even a deputy.
Reaching an investiture agreement soon seems more than complicated, as happened in 2016 and 2019. The first session of the debate to invest the President of the Government would be held the last week of August or the first of September, and from there a period of exactly two months is opened for Congress to grant its confidence to a candidate (by absolute or simple majority).
If after that period there is still no consensus, the Cortes would be dissolved and elections would be called to be held shortly before the end of the year. That is, this would happen the last week of October or the first week of November, coinciding in the calendar with the most important institutional act for Princess Leonor since she was born: the oath of the Constitution, precisely before a Courts that could be recently dissolved or about to do so.
According to Article 61 of the Constitution, "the Crown Prince, upon reaching the age of majority, and the Regent or Regents upon taking up their functions, shall take the same oath [to keep and ensure the observance of the Constitution and the laws and to respect the rights of citizens and of the Autonomous Communities, which also makes the monarch], as well as that of fidelity to the King."
As is known, Leonor turns 18 on October 31 and, if she follows the precedent of her father, who did so just when he came of age on January 30, 1986, he should take the oath before Congress that same day. However, there is no express legal formulation that requires that this act must necessarily be celebrated coinciding with the birthday of the heiress – something that Pedro Sánchez himself already recalled last year, when the electoral advance was not in his plans and the general elections were still scheduled for the end of 2023. but a delay until 2024 would detract from some of its symbolic value and it would also be questionable to celebrate it before a Cortes that were about to dissolve.