The sixth expert hearing on the Imperial Household system is scheduled to take place tomorrow. (
Source) But judging from the information that is available to me at present I have the strong impression that the government is playing for time. First, there is the obvious fact that the last hearing took place on 22 May. (At the beginning of the hearings it had been said that they should take place once or twice every month.) The second reason is the choice of experts for this sixth hearing. Of course, I do not know for sure what they will say. But I can guess rather easily.
Hidetsugu Yagi, Professor at Takasaki City University of Economics, is
the author of a school history textbook critics say whitewashes Japan's wartime past. He was a vocal member of the minority who opposed Koizumi´s plans to change the succession law to enable a woman to take the throne. (That was before Princess Kiko´s third pregnancy became known. At the time, 81% of Japanese adults surveyed
in a poll by the Nihon KezaiShimbun newspaper said they wanted to see the Imperial House Law revised to let Princess Aiko become reigning empress.) During
one of the hearings that took place at the time, Yagi said that succession only along the male line, supposedly dating back 26 centuries, was part of Japan's "irreplaceable culture."
"If Princess Aiko becomes empress and has a child with an outsider, the bloodline will be broken,"
Yagi claimed. „This has never happened in history. Some say (Aiko's child) would lose legitimacy. Could we call such a person emperor?"
According to Yagi, the fact that a huge majority of Japanese were supporting the amendment of the law could be disregarded because, as he said, „capricious public opinion“ was incapable of representing a sufficiently reliable base for the emperor system. Yagi believes the male line must be preserved at all costs, and
he proposed broadening the pool of eligible male successors by reinstating one or more of the collateral houses who lost their status in 1947.
It seems to me that, at least at the time, Yagi had still another idea of how to preserve the male line. He strongly
criticized Princess Masako, accusing her of having "a strong wish to put priority on other duties, such as travelling overseas, rather than giving birth”. According to Yagi, there were “very few people who actually say the words divorce, but they think it” and he
claimed in the beginning of 2006 that Masako´s “withdrawal from the imperial family would certainly solve a lot of problems.” (Yagi did not actually say it, but, obviously, a divorce would have set the crown prince free to find a nice young Fujiwara girl and “try again” for a male heir.)
Isao Tokoro, Professor Emeritus at Kyoto Sangyo University, has conducted extensive research on the imperial family and has spoken before the Prime Minister's Advisory Council on the Imperial Household law in 2005.
On the occasion, he said there is "great significance" in the fact that imperial succession from the male line was practiced for more than 1,000 years. But he added it was "impossible" to continue the succession under such restrictions. Although female monarchs should be allowed, males should be given precedence, because women can be expected to perform other "important roles," including bearing children, Tokoro said. "We are discussing the possible change only because of the need to preserve the imperial family, which is totally isolated from the world in which we live. It's not a women's rights issue," he added. (
Source)
Already in 1999, Tokoro had emphasized the necessity to start discussions on revising the imperial law which was, according to him, hastily drafted as required by the post-war Constitution and left various problems unattended. (
Source) In November 2001, shortly before Princess Aiko was born, Tokoro said, ''Even if the baby is a boy, with only three young male members -- the crown prince, Prince Akishino and the baby -- the imperial succession is not guaranteed.“ (
Source) In 2001,
he had proposed to reinstate some of the former collateral branches and let them carry on the line.
After Hisahito´s birth,
Tokoro suggested Crown Prince Naruhito should formally adopt his little nephew as this would promote a smoother generational transition for the imperial family. In a speech before the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan in Tokyo, Professor Tokoro wondered how Prince Hisahito could prepare for his role as emperor unless he started at a young age. "Unlike Crown Prince Naruhito, who will head the main family, Prince Akishino, who heads a branch, doesn't have a huge staff. It would come in handy if he had enough staff in charge of his son's education. It would help, for example, if he wants to invite someone to lecture to his son,"
Tokoro said.
In my opinion, this last idea of Tokoro´s shows that he is a bit out of sync with modern Japan. It is true that, in the Japanese past, adoption was an important instrument that could help to preserve the family line (not only in the imperial family). But, at the time, imperial children were being raised by foster parents whereas, today, they live with their natural parents. It would be unthinkable to take Hisahito away from Prince and Princess Akishino to be raised by the crown prince and princess. I am sure that everybody concerned would have been rendered very unhappy by the arrangement. And in case that the adoption should actually have been a mere formality and Hisahito should have continued to live with his parents, we would have had the absurd situation of Hisahito not officially belonging to the family he lives with and him ranking above his father and mother.
Summing all things up, it seems rather probable that, tomorrow, Yagi as well as Tokoro will again bring up the idea of the reinstatement of the former collateral branches. Mind you, I do not think that this proposal has a chance of actually being realized, for several reasons. (Just for example, it would open another can o´ worms to determine who should get back royal status and who should stay a commoner. They cannot bring back all of them, for simple monetary reasons.) But the statements of the experts will give the government a good reason to say that there is more controversy than expected and that they need more time to thoroughly discuss the matter.
(Obviously, it is up to the government to decide whom they ask and at what time. They need not, at this moment, have invited two experts whose opinion is so predictably against the planned changes.) Prime Minister Noda will soon step down – and it seems to me that he silently thinks: “Après moi le déluge!”