Here is an article I found quite interesting, about the Succession Law in Japan, and its future.
http://japantoday.com/e/?content=comment&id=788 (link coming from Archivesgotha)
Reigning empress just a matter of time
Shinya Ajima and Miya Tanaka
The Japanese public knows little about what the government panel on imperial succession is discussing. But the people, whether interested or not, will witness a historic change in the world's oldest hereditary monarchy when the panel releases a key report in a few months.
The panel, established in January, has been tasked with discussing whether to allow a female to ascend the throne in light of the fact that no male child has been born to the imperial family in the past 40 years.
At the center of the 10-member panel's discussion is whether to revise the Imperial House Law, which stipulates that only male heirs can succeed to the Imperial Throne.
Analysts believe the panel reaching a decision in favor of revising the law is a foregone conclusion. They add Japan having a female monarch is simply a matter of time.
The panel meets only once or twice in month despite its mission of compiling a proposal for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, possibly in several months. In addition, it includes only a few experts on imperial household affairs.
This has spawned speculation that the panel is just playing for time while floating a trial balloon to assess public sentiment on the sensitive issue of whether to enable female imperial family members to ascend the throne.
"We are discussing the issue from perspectives of Japanese citizens," said Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, a former president of the University of Tokyo, who heads the panel.
"We will focus on ways to ensure a stable imperial succession," Yoshikawa, also a specialist of robotics, said after the panel first met in January.
Japan's imperial system dates back to the fifth century and has been perpetuated in a male line of descent, with eight female monarchs between the sixth and 18th centuries among Japan's 125 emperors including legendary ones.
But the eight women, two of whom reigned twice under different names, existed before the law went into force in 1947. The law mandates that only male heirs who have emperors on their father's side can succeed to the throne.
Historians say most of those reigning empresses have emperors on their father's side, and that their ascensions resulted from emergency situations, such as when a crown prince was too young to reign or was forced to postpone enthronement for political reasons.
The scarcity of male successors in the current imperial family has increasingly exposed 3-year-old Princess Aiko, the only child of Crown Prince Naruhito, 45, and Crown Princess Masako, 41, to intense public attention as a possible future reigning empress.
If the Imperial House Law is revised and Princess Aiko gives birth to a child whose father is a commoner, the child may become the first monarch in Japan who has no emperors on his or her father's side for more than a thousand years, in what historians see as having a critical impact on Japan's history.
"We are firmly resolved to make history," Yoshikawa said in a news conference in January.
In February, speculation that the panel is set to propose a revision to the law intensified as a government source said Princess Aiko will be second in line to the Imperial Throne after her father.
The source said the focus of panel debate is whether Princess Aiko's future children, be they male or female, should be allowed to ascend the throne.
Having such children ascend the throne would have significant impact on the history of the imperial family because that would mean a departure from the tradition of allowing only heirs who have emperors on their father's side to succeed to the throne.
After the comments were disclosed to the general public by news media the following day, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda said nothing has been determined on Princess Akio's future status, adding all options are open.
At the third meeting of the panel in March, its members agreed that the male-dominant imperial succession being favored historically cannot be backed by any particular documents.
"There are no proper historical documents that clearly explain why the male line has been favored," Yoshikawa said.
In May, panel members acknowledged they are studying the feasibility of five options being presented by the government as models of a new imperial succession system.
Four of the five proposed allowing a female to ascend the throne under certain conditions while the fifth option calls for the current system of preserving a male line to be maintained.
The revision to the Imperial House Law would allow the Imperial Household Agency, which is responsible for the personal, ceremonial and official affairs of the imperial family, to start educating Princess Aiko to prepare her for becoming a monarch.
Analysts say the princess is not too young to start receiving such education.
One of the four options in support of female monarchs is designed to give precedence in imperial succession to the emperor's firstborn regardless of sex.
In the remaining three options, however, males are given precedence over females in ascending the throne, which spawned speculation that the government is still looking for ways to preserve the male-dominant line in the event that the crown prince and princess eventually have a son, analysts say.
Despite the perceived efforts being made by the government to preserve a male line, analysts believe the panel is likely to reach a decision to revise the law.
"We can easily guess how the panel will conclude its discussion," said Yasuhiro Okudaira, a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, who specializes in the Constitution.
But he is critical of the recent developments surrounding imperial succession, saying the general public would be wrong if they blindly opt to enable females to succeed to the throne just to maintain the imperial system.
"People should discuss the question of whether the imperial system itself should be kept intact before they discuss if a female monarch is to be allowed," Okudaira said.
Some people in Japan are strongly opposed to the continued maintenance of the imperial system, saying it was responsible for Japanese militarism during World War II.
An opinion poll released in March showed 81% of the general public supports revising the law to allow a female successor to ascend the throne against 5% who want to see the male-dominant line sustained.
The finding represented a remarkable shift from a similar survey in 1975, which found 54% were against a reigning empress, while 31% supported gender equality.
Hidehiko Kasahara, a professor at Keio University, suggested the panel most fears its conclusion deviating from the sentiment of the general public.
"The panel is on a course to reaching a conclusion which is not far away from the average public opinion," said Kasahara, who teaches Japanese political history.
"In addition there is no doubt they cannot help but think of, first of all, allowing a female monarch due to lack of male heirs," he said.
In the last two sessions May 31 and June 8, the panel invited a total of eight experts on imperial household affairs to hear their opinions on the succession issue.
Some of the experts proposed the government maintain the current male-dominant system by arguing, for example, that Japanese tradition needs to be protected, the majority insisted reigning empresses be allowed for the sake of the imperial family's survival.
Hiroshi Takahashi, a professor at Shizuoka University of Welfare, who was invited to express his views, said before joining the panel that the general public may think the panel is hastily reaching a foregone conclusion.
"But I actually don't know whether the panel could win support from the public for a conclusion without process," said Takahashi, who argued for successions by firstborns. (Kyodo News)
June 11, 2005