Is the Royal visit off?
With the House of Commons paralysed and a vote on the future of the Paul Martin government promised for no later than next Thursday, the Royal visit to celebrate the Alberta and Saskatchewan centennial is now in some doubt.
The Queen is scheduled to arrive in Regina on Tuesday afternoon, where she will be officially welcomed by Paul Martin. The PM is also hosting a dinner for the Royal visitors the next day, before returning to Ottawa to face a non-confidence vote.
It's precisely the sort of political minefield our absentee monarch is at pains to avoid. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has already suggested the embattled PM wants to use the Queen as a positive photo-op before facing the possibility of an election.
It's not an unreasonable criticism. Basking in the glow of an upbeat Royal visit, with wall-to-wall media coverage, seems like a dandy way to project an image far removed from the Gomery inquiry.
And that's the concern. Several calls to London yesterday confirmed that Canada's developing constitutional crisis has become a major issue for the Queen and her advisers. The phone lines between Ottawa, the Canadian Embassy, and Buckingham Palace are buzzing, and I understand a final decision on the Queen's plans is likely to be made today.
The palace was saying little about the possibility of cancelling next week's visit, only confirming that the Queen will "take the advice of the prime minister" on whether it should go ahead.
But sources in London tell me that a decision "to fish or cut bait" has to be made within the next 24 hours. The Queen, I'm told, is anxious to make what may well be her last visit to Western Canada, but "constitutional considerations loom larger than personal preferences."
Although the Queen is Canada's head of state and our governments and legal system operate in her name, in practice she's an absentee monarch who delegates most of her constitutional power to the Governor General.
For example,
Rideau Hall confirms that even if the Queen is visiting Canada, if the Martin government falls next week the PM would tender his resignation to Adrienne Clarkson. She will be on hand to welcome Her Majesty to Saskatchewan, but, like Martin, the Governor General plans to return to Ottawa on Thursday - just in case.
For our symbolic monarch the problem is the unpredictability of elections, and the possibility that the Royal institution itself could become an issue.
Outside Quebec there would seem to be little discernible republicanism sentiment in Canada. But it would be a mistake to assume there is none.
A few years ago, Jean Chretien's office quietly floated the idea that the millennium might be the time to bring the monarchy to an end. Apparently many in the federal Liberal caucus were horrified, but not deputy prime minister John Manley - an occasionally outspoken republican.
Ottawa legend has it that Manley blocked a plan to have the Queen read the federal government's Throne Speech during her Golden Jubilee visit in 2002. Manley's people denied it at the time, but the story was believed in London.
It's not clear whether republican sentiment still bubbles beneath the surface in the present federal Liberal administration (my guess is that it does), but Buckingham Palace's policy - in Australia and New Zealand as well as in Canada - is to avoid politics like the plague. Hence the doubts now hanging over the centennial visit.
The Klein government has said it will promise to make Alberta an election-free zone for the duration of the Royal visit, but it's not clear how it might enforce that restriction on federal politicians or anyone else who feels inclined to use the visit and the accompanying media mob to promote their pet cause or air their grievance.
In the end it will come down to the advice from the PM, and the Queen's own inclinations as a veteran of the monarchy business. Frankly, I think the Ottawa politicians ought to hope she does come, because a cancellation at this late stage would involve its own political costs.
There are an awful lot of people in Alberta and Saskatchewan looking forward to this visit, and it's not the Queen they're going to be mad at if it doesn't happen.
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Columnists/Edmonton/Paul_Stanway/2005/05/13/1037566.html