Future of the Dutch Monarchy

[Somebody]

Originally Posted by Frozen Royalist

So any new polls for the popularity of the House of Orange-Nassau? I still find the sudden dips in popularity after the new king took the throne rather bizarre, I mean I understand the king was a bit of a klutz but the major dip in popularity was a bit much in opinion.

-Frozen Royalist

P.S. You know what, I've honestly found the opinion polls for the Netherlands and Sweden to be rather suspicious, I mean if republicans were that popular wouldn't we've seen major republican demonstrations throughout the two kingdoms reflecting the poll results? I mean I can sort of understand that the polls for Belgium and Spain are at least on point with the rest of the kingdoms with separatist movements and the occasional scandal but I think the dip of support in the Netherlands was rather baseless, I know attitudes change but wouldn't we've seen discussions in the Dutch parliament about a possible referendum?

What dips and polls are you referring to? The last polls were done in April just before the King turned 50 and his interview was well received; so that most likely increased his popularity (at least for a short period of time) - see previous posts.

[Frozen Royalist]

Originally Posted by Somebody

What dips and polls are you referring to? The last polls were done in April just before the King turned 50 and his interview was well received; so that most likely increased his popularity (at least for a short period of time) - see previous posts.

I'm talking about some of the old polls where support of the monarchy was around 50% or so. I understand the latest polls are around 70% and the king having 79% but still. What I was generally getting at was the sudden dip in the past, not recently.

-Frozen Royalist

[Lee-Z]

Originally Posted by Frozen Royalist

So any new polls for the popularity of the House of Orange-Nassau? I still find the sudden dips in popularity after the new king took the throne rather bizarre, I mean I understand the king was a bit of a klutz but the major dip in popularity was a bit much in opinion.

-Frozen Royalist

P.S. You know what, I've honestly found the opinion polls for the Netherlands and Sweden to be rather suspicious, I mean if republicans were that popular wouldn't we've seen major republican demonstrations throughout the two kingdoms reflecting the poll results? I mean I can sort of understand that the polls for Belgium and Spain are at least on point with the rest of the kingdoms with separatist movements and the occasional scandal but I think the dip of support in the Netherlands was rather baseless, I know attitudes change but wouldn't we've seen discussions in the Dutch parliament about a possible referendum?

imo this article from 2016 pretty much sums it up
https://nos.nl/artikel/2102293-de-ko...ie-minder.html
google translated

the king is quite popular (the queen even more) the monarchie itself not so much, but that doesn't mean that it will be overthrown any time soon.

Imo one of the reasons why a republic is not really considered at the moment is because we dutch like a "neutral" head of state and we assume that with a republic one of our politiciams would become head of state and as there are many political parties in the NL that would be a whirlwind alltogether.

I don't think a serious "opinion about becoming a republic" poll was ever held...

[M. Payton]

For those that would ever want a republic then all you have to do is come take a long hard look at the US with all the wild and different everything that goes on here and where nothing gets done, for then you can see *What not to do in your homeland*....there are way to many cooks in the kitchen here and there is never anything on the table for the people, it all goes back to the cooks...

[Duc_et_Pair]

I think that the republic wil start in the Netherlands or in Sweden. People often make the wrong calculation: Victoria is popular, or Máxima is popular, wow the monarchy is safe.

But a personal popularity says little about the opinion of having a system which delivers the head of state by hereditary succession. When asked: "Do you like to elect your own head of state?" I think that the answer on that will shift more and more to a republic.

But again: King Willem-Alexander enjoys popularity. Queen Máxima has always been the most popular member of the Royal House. But that is just "phwwwttt", replacing air. The most popular royal today easily can become the most unpopular royal tomorrow.

As we could see with "modern" things like gender-neutral civil law, same-gender marriages, liberal laws on use of soft drugs, seeing the right on choosing the own death as an ultimate personal and autonomous choice, etc. all these often started in the Benelux- or Scandinavian countries. When ONE country allows a referendum on the monarchy, let us say Sweden, then it is not so strange to expect that there will be pressure to hold similar referendums in Spain, or the Netherlands. And in these days 500.000 signatures are a piece of a cake, via the electronic domain.

No, I make no any illusion. The Netherlands will fall as first. All will be done in a typically neat Dutch way. No revolution. No bloodshed. No exile. All with generous arrangements for the former royal family (and they themselves have a life-insurance in the Crown Domains which have to be returned to them in case of a republic).

[Mbruno]

Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair

I think that the republic wil start in the Netherlands or in Sweden. People often make the wrong calculation: Victoria is popular, or Máxima is popular, wow the monarchy is safe.

But a personal popularity says little about the opinion of having a system which delivers the head of state by hereditary succession. When asked: "Do you like to elect your own head of state?" I think that the answer on that will shift more and more to a republic.

But again: King Willem-Alexander enjoys popularity. Queen Máxima has always been the most popular member of the Royal House. But that is just "phwwwttt", replacing air. The most popular royal today easily can become the most unpopular royal tomorrow.

As we could see with "modern" things like gender-neutral civil law, same-gender marriages, liberal laws on use of soft drugs, seeing the right on choosing the own death as an ultimate personal and autonomous choice, etc. all these often started in the Benelux- or Scandinavian countries. When ONE country allows a referendum on the monarchy, let us say Sweden, then it is not so strange to expect that there will be pressure to hold similar referendums in Spain, or the Netherlands. And in these days 500.000 signatures are a piece of a cake, via the electronic domain.

No, I make no any illusion. The Netherlands will fall as first. All will be done in a typically neat Dutch way. No revolution. No bloodshed. No exile. All with generous arrangements for the former royal family (and they themselves have a life-insurance in the Crown Domains which have to be returned to them in case of a republic).

Polls notwithstanding, the only country where I I see a republican movement with a credible chance of success in a near future is Spain and maybe also in Belgium. In other monarchies, even if support for the monarchy falls to the 50-60 % range, there is no clear desire for a republic to replace it.

[Duc_et_Pair]

Originally Posted by Mbruno

Polls notwithstanding, the only country where I I see a republican movement with a credible chance of success in a near future is Spain and maybe also in Belgium. In other monarchies, even if support for the monarchy falls to the 50-60 % range, there is no clear desire for a republic to replace it.

But that are polls. No one has ever asked the Dutchman, or the Swede, or the Belgian in the street the real question in a real referendum.

And then the wording of question is very important

REFERENDUM
The head of state must be:
A) democratically elected by the people
B) determined by hereditary succession

REFERENDUM
Do you want to have the right to elect the head of state?
A) Yes
B) No

These questions have another "load" than:

REFERENDUM
Since 1403 the House of Orange-Nassau is part of our national history and identity.
Do you want to end this centuries long bond?
A) Yes
B) No

[Michiru-Kaiou]

What I always find funny in these debates - what makes the public so sure they'll get to elect their head-of-state in a republic? I'm German and the public has absolutely no say in who our head-of-state is, even though we are a (federal) republic. We're getting our President basically dumped on our head by the whim of whoever can scramble a majority together.

So - a republic isn't a guarantee you get to actually vote for your head-of-state. Why change it then? From a monarchy, that is.

best wishes Michiru

[Marengo]

I believe that the new cabinet wants to abolish the referendum. So it will soon be impossible to have one about the monarchy. For most political parties it would be political suicide to actively pursue the abolishment of the monarchy at this point.

From left to right there are no parties that even passively want to abolish the monarchy. The -former Maoist- Socialist Party recently changed their position and now claim that:

A monarchy into a democracy is not logical. We believe that any political post holder, including the head of State, should be chosen. However, many Dutch people attach great importance to the Royal House. That is why the monarchy well be fitted into our democracy. The current head of State should have a ceremonial function, as a symbol and representative of Netherlands.

The new extreme right party 'Forum for Democracy' has nothing about the monarchy on their website/programme. But considering they are in favour of direct democracy, directly chosen prime minister, mayors etc. it would be logical that they want their head of state to be chosen too. Geert Wilders and his henchmen seem to have stopped attacking the monarchy, I suppose his objections mainly related to the person of Beatrix.

[Blog Real]

No country gets nothing in becoming a Republic. The monarchy is much better. I think all monarchies are popular.

[Gaudete]

I predict we'll be far more likely to see a restoration in the next decade than an abolition. And from the time I have spent in the Netherlands, I think I'd definitely put the Dutch at the very bottom of the list of nations eager to ditch their King!

[Biri]

Originally Posted by Blog Real

No country gets nothing in becoming a Republic. The monarchy is much better. I think all monarchies are popular.

So why did Italians choose the republic in the referendum after the World War II?

[Blog Real]

Originally Posted by Biri

So why did Italians choose the republic in the referendum after the World War II?

I don't know. But they didn't win anything with the Republic, in my opinion.

[Duc_et_Pair]

Originally Posted by Michiru-Kaiou

What I always find funny in these debates - what makes the public so sure they'll get to elect their head-of-state in a republic? I'm German and the public has absolutely no say in who our head-of-state is, even though we are a (federal) republic. We're getting our President basically dumped on our head by the whim of whoever can scramble a majority together.

So - a republic isn't a guarantee you get to actually vote for your head-of-state. Why change it then? From a monarchy, that is.

best wishes Michiru

The Germans have voted for the Bundestag. The Germans have voted for the Parliaments of the Bundesländer. These parliamentarians, assembled in the Bundesversammlung, vote for the Bundespräsident.

The Dutch find themselves with a head of state, whom happens to be born from a German-German Prinzessin (Beatrix, from a Zur Lippe-Biesterfeld & Von Mecklenburg-Schwerin union) and a German-German Junker (Claus, from a Von Amsberg & Von dem Bussche-Haddenhausen union).

In that perspective, the election of the German Bundespräsident is an example of democratic exellence: their Dutch neighbours have never been asked anything.

[Gaudete]

Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair

The Germans have voted for the Bundestag. The Germans have voted for the Parliaments of the Bundesländer. These parliamentarians, assembled in the Bundesversammlung, vote for the Bundespräsident.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the same German President would be elected if he relied on an ordinary public vote of course. From a UK perspective where the Speaker of the House of Commons is elected in the same way to the German President, I very much doubt Mr Bercow would be elected to the same office if it were upto the every day man on the street.

[Duc_et_Pair]

Originally Posted by Marengo

I believe that the new cabinet wants to abolish the referendum. So it will soon be impossible to have one about the monarchy. For most political parties it would be political suicide to actively pursue the abolishment of the monarchy at this point.

From left to right there are no parties that even passively want to abolish the monarchy. The -former Maoist- Socialist Party recently changed their position and now claim that:



The new extreme right party 'Forum for Democracy' has nothing about the monarchy on their website/programme. But considering they are in favour of direct democracy, directly chosen prime minister, mayors etc. it would be logical that they want their head of state to be chosen too. Geert Wilders and his henchmen seem to have stopped attacking the monarchy, I suppose his objections mainly related to the person of Beatrix.

Geert Wilders was even received by the King at Noordeinde Palace (picture) and was very complimentary afterwards in Twitter:

Geert Wilders ✔ @geertwilderspvv
Zojuist op bezoek geweest bij de Koning. Het was een aangenaam en openhartig gesprek. Veel respect voor hem! Ik had een fles Hongaarse palinka voor hem en Koningin Máxima meegenomen. Zal hopelijk goed smaken!

(Just recently visited the King. It was a pleasant and frank conversation. Lots of respect for him! I had brought a bottle of Hungarian palinka for him and Queen Máxima. Hopefully it will taste good!)

Also during the Investiture of the King Geert Wilders, as maverick and provoking he can be, subjected himself totally to the ceremonial and protocol, dressed in jacquet (picture). That was a surprise indeed. Since the accession of King Willem-Alexander the PVV has been completely silent about the monarchy.

[Duc_et_Pair]

Originally Posted by Gaudete

This doesn't necessarily mean that the same German President would be elected if he relied on an ordinary public vote of course. From a UK perspective where the Speaker of the House of Commons is elected in the same way to the German President, I very much doubt Mr Bercow would be elected to the same office if it were upto the every day man on the street.

That is true, but that is the same as in the United States where Secretary Clinton won the electoral vote but Mr Trump was elected President by the Electoral College. But no one will claim that Trump, Obama, Bush, Clinton and all their predecessors were undemocratically elected: these are the rules for the election of a president: via the members of the Electoral College.

The German Bundespräsidenten all were elected according the rules for the election of that office. By the members of the Bundesversammlung. At least the democratically elected politicians, from the federation as well the states, together representing the German people, had a say.

Originally Posted by Gaudete

I predict we'll be far more likely to see a restoration in the next decade than an abolition. And from the time I have spent in the Netherlands, I think I'd definitely put the Dutch at the very bottom of the list of nations eager to ditch their King!

I live in the Netherlands and I have never spontaneously heard any praise for the monarchy. Yes, individuals inside the royal family are well-liked: Máxima, the King, but there are also individuals inside the royal family a lot lesser liked: Prince Bernhard with his 590 real estate properties in the Netherlands (349 in Amsterdam alone).

The biggest mistake here is to take the individual popularity of a Máxima and translate it in popularity for the monarchy as an institution, as a form of state. I can assure you there is really a lot of nagging about the monarchy but in the "bucket list of the Dutch" the monarchy does not make the top of the "to do"-list. The Dutch more or less tolerate this expensive historic anomaly in their constitution.

[Gaudete]

In that way I imagine it's the same as in the UK. We don't go about shouting God Save the Queen but their popularity is there and we just have too much to do to really think about it. Then again, the alternative is enough to put anybody off asking about it too much anyway!

[Duc_et_Pair]

For the moment the King and the Royal House are safe - for the moment.

The NOS (the Dutch equivalent of the BBC) made an analysis.

(Picture: the King and the Prime Ministers - both the same age - both Leyden University - both studied History)

With this coalition on the pluche, the King sits on velvet

How the flag really hangs for King Willem-Alexander after the elections and the formation of this new Cabinet, will soon become clear when the Chapter One of the State Budget ("The King") is on the parliamentary agenda.

Apart from the most important critic of the King in recent years (the left-liberal D66), the Cabinet with VVD (right-liberal), CDA and ChristenUnie (both Christian-Democrat parties) consists of loyal Orange supporters. It is not obvious that a Cabinet which cherishes national symbols such as the Wilhelmus and De Nachtwacht, will start tinkering with the monarchy.

Alexander Pechtold, the leader of D66, who always made pleas for an "austere and modern kingship" now is a leader of a party in the coalition and he has to take this into account. The King sits on velvet.

King Willem-Alexander also has little to fear from the opposition in the Second Chamber, provided that he remains constitutionally solid and can prevent (financial) scandals. The written preparation for the parliamentary reading of the Budget indicates this.

Orange pennant (picture)
The Second Chamber will not immediately provide the national flag that now hangs in the assembly hall with an orange pennant. But parties with a republican preference lack the required majority to advance, after the removal of the King from the formation of a new Cabinet, towards a strictly ceremonial monarchy.

Tax exemptions
Yet there is a catch. At the end of this month, the deferred report of a committee will be published, commissioned by the Cabinet, for archival research into an assumed secret tax deal concluded with the royal family in the 1970s. This assumed deal was meant as a compensation for taxes that the Orange-Nassaus would have to pay (for the first time) about their private assets.

It is conceivable that through this report the tax exemptions enjoyed by the Royal House will -again- be discussed. In the wake of this, the discussion can also flare up again about the height of the incomes the State pays to members of the Royal House

Time-consuming
The case concerns tax exemptions for King Willem-Alexander, Queen Máxima, Princess Beatrix and for Princess Amalia as soon as she turns 18. As members of the Royal House who are entitled to a State income, they do not have to pay tax on the income they receive from the State Treasury and also no tax on the parts of their assets that are important for the execution of the royal dignity.

In addition, King Willem-Alexander and Princess Amalia are also exempted from inheritance tax. Because this so-called "tax exemption" is anchored in constitutional article 40, it is difficult and time-consuming for Parliament to draw attention to it, because a two-thirds majority is required in two different Parliaments.

Populism
Even though it is difficult to change the tax exemptions of the Royal House, there is another way to achieve the same goal: a lower royal income. For a parliamentary majority, it is possible to reduce the annual payments to King Willem-Alexander, Queen Máxima and Princess Beatrix. The amount of this is not regulated in the Constitution, but in the Financial Statute of the Royal House.

Last year Prime Minister Rutte got the Chamber on his side with his plea to leave the royal arrangements as they are. D66 leader Pechtold then talked about the "pocket money" of 1, 5 million Euro that Princess Amalia gets when she turns eighteen, but Rutte denounced this as "populism", because the whole Chamber had -with almost unanimity- agreed to this in 2008.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2203528-met-d...p-fluweel.html

[Duc_et_Pair]

The Republican Society has started a crowd fund action to finance a lawsuit against the State of the Netherlands. Reason: according to them the trias politica (the separation of powers) is not respected in the person of the King.

The King is formally part of the Government (executive power), Justice is formally spoken in the name of the King (judiciary power), the King is formally president of the Raad van State (Council of State) which has legislative and a judiciary powers.

For an example Justices, ministers, ambassadors, mayors, etc. are appointed by the King (kroonbenoeming / appointment by the Crown). Which could -in theory- lead to the royal family starting a lawsuit (against a boulevard press magazine, for example) and then a Judge "appointed by the King" and "speaking in name of the King" is then presiding the lawsuit. Still any subpoena has a stamp on it In naam van de Koning! ("In name of the King!"). No matter the pure formality or ceremoniality of it, the Republican Society finds this an infringement in their civil rights.

The Republican Society knows very well that the role of the King is completely limited by the ministerial responsibility. He can not appoint mayors, judges, ambassadors without a ministerial contraseign. But they -of course- want to obstruct the monarchy as much as possible, trying to get the King out any possible action (making him completely meaningless), and -if in vain- at least enjoy publicity for their republican dream. They want to extend the lawsuit to the very last stage (the European Court of Justice).