I put down the following example to demonstrate that a new rule to downsize the Royal Family would be almost useless, at least for the next 50 years.
I know that it's very, very long and boring (and a little nonsense), but it took me more than three hours - and now is almost 2 a.m., so I would appreciate very much if someone read it.
Thank you in advance.
THE PRESENT GENERATION (and the next few years)
PEOPLE: 12 (next years: 17 max)
(People in bold are those who perform or will beging to perform royal duties in the next few years.)
The Queen + The Duke of Edinburgh
[Children and granchildren + their consorts]
The Prince of Wales (1st son - heir apparent) +
The Duchess of Cornwall
- -
Prince William of Wales (1st son of the heir - grandson) + future
wife
- -
Prince Henry of Wales (2nd son of the heir - grandson) + future
wife
The Duke of York (2nd son) + future Duchess of York (very unlikely)
- -
Princess Beatrice of York (1st daughter - granddaughter) + future husband
- - Princess Eugenie of York* (2nd daughter - granddaughter) + future husband
The Earl of Wessex (3rd son) +
The Countess of Wessex
- - Lady Louise (daughter - granddaughter)
- - child 2 ?
The Princess Royal (daughter) + Tim Laurence
- - Peter Phillips
- - Zara Phillips
[Cousins + their consorts]
The Duke of Kent (cousin - 1st son) + The Duchess of Kent
Prince Michael of Kent* (cousin - 2nd son) + Princess Michael
Princess Alexandra* (cousin - daughter)
The Duke of Gloucester (cousin) +
The Duchess of Gloucester
This makes
17 people (I don't count the unlikely future Duchess of York), and this is the maximum number possible in the next future.
The present number is
12.
* Princess Eugenie is not entitled to perform royal duties, because she is the second child of a son of the sovereing who is not the the 1st child. Well, it's difficult to explain. She is like Prince Michael and Princess Alexandra: they are the 2nd and the 3rd child of the 4th son of the sovereing. In fact, Prince Michael doesn't perform royal duties. Princess Alexandra does because she was asked to do so in the 1960s.
THE SECOND GENERATION (2020/5 ca)
PEOPLE: 16 (max) - 11 (likely)
(I suggest the "worst" scenario: 3 sons for William and at least one son (first child) for Harry! This implies:
- Harry's son will perform royal duties and so his wife
- the first child of both the second son and the third son of William (sorry!) and the three wives of Will's sons will perform royal duties.
As William and Harry won't have their children tomorrow but, probably, during the next 10-15 years, in 2020 or 2025 ca they will be children or teenagers).
[Father]
The Duke of Edinburgh*
The King (Charles) +
"Princess" Consort
[Children and grandchildren]
The Prince of Wales (William) (1st son) +
The Princess of Wales
son 1 (born 2010)
son 2 (born 2014)
son 3 (born 2019)
The Prince Henry (2nd son) +
Princess Henry
son 1 (born 2013)
child 2 (born 2017)
child 3 (born 2020)
[Siblings, nephews and nieces and their families]
The Duke of York (brother) + Duchess of York (very unlikely)
- -
Princess Beatrice of York (1st daughter) + husband
- - - - children
- - Princess Eugenie of York (2nd daughter) + husband
- - - - children
The Earl of Wessex (brother) +
The Countess of Wessex
- - Lady Louise (daughter) + husband
- - - - child
- - child 2 ?
The Princess Royal (sister) + Tim Laurence
- - Peter Phillips + wife
- - - - children
- - Zara Phillips + husband
- - - - children
[Cousins]
Lord Linley
Lady Sara Chatto
[Queen's cousins]
The Duke of Kent* (cousin - 1st son) + The Duchess of Kent
Prince Michael of Kent (cousin - 2nd son) + Princess Michael
Princess Alexandra* (cousin - daughter)
The Duke of Gloucester* (cousin) +
The Duchess of Gloucester*
* these people are likely to be deceased or retired from royal duties - due to age or other reasons (I didn't put the * next to those who don't perform royal duties)
In this phase we could have a maximum of
16 people (i.e. the previous number with only the present Queen missing.) But the most likely maximum number is
11: the King, his two sons and his three siblings plus the female consorts (but without a Duchess of York) plus Princess Beatrice, who is the only Queen's grandchild performing royal duties.
INTERMEDIATE PHASE (2035 ca)
PEOPLE: 13 (max)
Some of William's and Harry's children perform royal duties and the king and his siblings are alive).
The King (Charles) +
"Princess" Consort
[Children and grandhildren]
The Prince of Wales (William) (1st son - heir apparent) +
The Princess of Wales
son 1 (25) +
wife
- - child
son 2 (21)
son 3 (16)
The Prince Henry (2nd son) +
Princess Henry
son 1 (22)
child 2 (18)
child 3 (15)
[Siblings, nephews and nieces and their families]
The Duke of York (brother) + Duchess of York (very unlikely)
- -
Princess Beatrice of York (1st daughter) + husband
- - - - children
- - Princess Eugenie of York (2nd daughter) + husband
- - - - children
The Duke of Edinburgh (brother) +
The Duchess of Edinburgh
- - Lady Louise (daughter) + husband
- - - - child
- - child 2 ?
The Princess Royal (sister) + Tim Laurence
- - Peter Phillips + wife
- - - - children
- - Zara Phillips + husband
- - - - children
[Cousins]
Lord Linley
Lady Sara Chatto
In this phase we have a maximum of
13 people.
THIRD GENERATION (2050 ca) I will be 70!
PEOPLE: 17 (max) - 13-15 (likely)
At this point some of the Queen's children are dead or not performing royal duties.
Always the "worst", with first children who are males and so on.
(Obviously my task is more and more difficult)
The King (William) +
Queen Consort
[Children and grandhildren]
The Prince of Wales (40) (1st son - heir apparent) +
The Princess of Wales
- - son (15)
- - other children
son 2 (36) +
wife
- - son (8)
- - other children
son 3 (31) +
wife
- - son (4)
- - other children
[Brother and family]
The Prince Henry (2nd son of the previous king) +
Princess Henry
son 1 (37) +
wife
- - son (7)
- - other children
child 2 (33) + consort
- - children
child 3 (30) + consort
- - child
[Siblings, nephews and nieces and their families]
The Duke of York* (brother) + Duchess of York (very unlikely)
- -
Princess Beatrice of York (1st daughter) + husband
- - - - children
- - Princess Eugenie of York (2nd daughter) + husband
- - - - children
The Duke of Edinburgh (brother) +
The Duchess of Edinburgh
- - Lady Louise (daughter) + husband
- - - - child
- - child 2 ?
The Princess Royal* (sister) + Tim Laurence
- - Peter Phillips + wife
- - - - children
- - Zara Phillips + husband
- - - - children
[Previous king's cousins]
Lord Linley
Lady Sara Chatto
In this case we could have a maximum of
17 people, including all Charles siblings and their wives. But at this time Anne is 100 and Andrew 90: if they are alive they have probably stopped their duties because they are, after all, the king's uncle and aunt. The Duke and The Duchess of Edinburgh (Edward and Sophie) perhaps are performing or perhaps they aren't (for the above reasons).
Likely number
13-
15.
CONCLUSION
OK, I invented William and Harry's children. I supposed 3 children for each of them, many sons, people who marry young, and so on.
This means that the real numbers will probably be lower, I think around 10.
I made the whole example under the present rules (George V).
Now, look carefully at my example and apply the new proposed rule. Which people are affected by it? Imagine that the rule is applied tomorrow. Providing that the present cousins aren't affected (after all they have performed their dutied for man years) who would be the others?
(Of course I know, but I don't want to tell it!)
THANK YOU VERY MUCH!