Restoration of the Monarchy in Brazil

[Marengo]

The prince is not a member of the royal house as his father- Prince Eudes- renounced his rights to the throne for himself and his descendants in 1966. We can not blame him for choosing the life & career for himself that he wishes. If his father's marriage would have been approved, the prince would have been the heir to the defunct throne.

According to the translation claims that abortion opens the door to pedophilia and matricide. I never heard of the latter, but it is the killing of your mother. A curious line of thought I suppose. Apart from that he is in favor of the return of the monarchy, free market and non-intervention of the state.

 

[Frozen Royalist]

Let's see here, there has been a new article from The Sun Daily but this was just the usual about a royal thinking that a constitutional monarchy being best for Brazil and all, so whatever.

According to my research, Brazilian monarchism has been on the rise for a while now and especially since the 2014 Football (European soccer) World Cup and the government of Dilma Rouseff, you guys probably know that last part well but its better to keep track of history am I right? Any who, today there are facebook pages and websites like Pró Monarquia that have around 80,000 followers which points to a verge of convergence in the various strands of Brazilian monarchism.

The Imperial Royal Family of Brazil itself is becoming better known, which is a good thing. In 2017 Prince Bertrand was on the largest talk show in the nation and this in turn led to a record break of an audience on the show itself, this shows that people are at least paying attention. Said prince has also been interviewed by various newspapers and journalists, which is also a good thing in my opinion because it helps raise some awareness.

Now even though the latest poll had shown about 11% of the population (roughly around 23 million Brazilians) would support the idea of a restoration there is known the less greater support. I honestly personally suspect the percentage in favor of restoration to be rather larger with somewhere between 15% - 20% of the population to be in favor, you know, silent monarchists.

It's also a good sign that when there are anti-government protests, people do wave around the flag of the old empire, it's obvious that they support the notion of a constitutional monarchy if they were waving the flag around, and there have been multiple people doing it at each protests too so this isn't exactly entirely fringe.

However, some of the main issues facing the restoration include the fact that a lot of people see this as a caricature without seriousness, this needs to change with monarchists using better PR and showing that they are 110% serious about restoration IMO. Also members of the Imperial Royal Family need to distant themselves from "undesirables" if you people catch my drift.

The fact that it has this much attention at least shows that Brazilian monarchism is now at least not entirely fringe and semi-mainstream. As I said before one of the main problems is PR, that and I think the Imperial Royal Family needs to show more unity. It is nice that many members are in favor or restoration, and this is especially great in the face of the restoration movements in Europe, but in the end unity is still an issue plus as I may or may not have said before, Prince Bertrand is way too old for the throne in my opinion.

This concludes my report on Brazilian monarchism.

-Frozen Royalist

 

[JR76]

Let's see here, there has been a new article from The Sun Daily but this was just the usual about a royal thinking that a constitutional monarchy being best for Brazil and all, so whatever.

According to my research, Brazilian monarchism has been on the rise for a while now and especially since the 2014 Football (European soccer) World Cup and the government of Dilma Rouseff, you guys probably know that last part well but its better to keep track of history am I right? Any who, today there are facebook pages and websites like Pró Monarquia that have around 80,000 followers which points to a verge of convergence in the various strands of Brazilian monarchism.

The Imperial Royal Family of Brazil itself is becoming better known, which is a good thing. In 2017 Prince Bertrand was on the largest talk show in the nation and this in turn led to a record break of an audience on the show itself, this shows that people are at least paying attention. Said prince has also been interviewed by various newspapers and journalists, which is also a good thing in my opinion because it helps raise some awareness.

Now even though the latest poll had shown about 11% of the population (roughly around 23 million Brazilians) would support the idea of a restoration there is known the less greater support. I honestly personally suspect the percentage in favor of restoration to be rather larger with somewhere between 15% - 20% of the population to be in favor, you know, silent monarchists.

It's also a good sign that when there are anti-government protests, people do wave around the flag of the old empire, it's obvious that they support the notion of a constitutional monarchy if they were waving the flag around, and there have been multiple people doing it at each protests too so this isn't exactly entirely fringe.

However, some of the main issues facing the restoration include the fact that a lot of people see this as a caricature without seriousness, this needs to change with monarchists using better PR and showing that they are 110% serious about restoration IMO. Also members of the Imperial Royal Family need to distant themselves from "undesirables" if you people catch my drift.

The fact that it has this much attention at least shows that Brazilian monarchism is now at least not entirely fringe and semi-mainstream. As I said before one of the main problems is PR, that and I think the Imperial Royal Family needs to show more unity. It is nice that many members are in favor or restoration, and this is especially great in the face of the restoration movements in Europe, but in the end unity is still an issue plus as I may or may not have said before, Prince Bertrand is way too old for the throne in my opinion.

This concludes my report on Brazilian monarchism.

-Frozen Royalist

Don't you think that the very conservative outlook of the current leadership of the Imperial family could be a hindrance to them achieving a big popular support? I know that Brazilians in general aren't as liberal in their lifestyle as we Europeans tend to think but there's still a big divide between them and the Imperial House which seems almost Carlist in their views.

 

[Mbruno]

Don't you think that the very conservative outlook of the current leadership of the Imperial family could be a hindrance to them achieving a big popular support? I know that Brazilians in general aren't as liberal in their lifestyle as we Europeans tend to think but there's still a big divide between them and the Imperial House which seems almost Carlist in their views.

It is difficult to define Brazilians as far as their political position is concerned. Most Brazilians favor a strong government and state intervention in the economy, which means that the Anglo-Saxon philosophy of free markets and small government is actually not very popular down there, neither on the left nor on the right. On the other hand, many Brazilians are very nationalistic and surprisingly right- wing in the sense of being anti-communist and socially conservative. More so than a restoration of the monarchy, I think the country is very susceptible now to the rise of right-wing populism as we are seeing today with presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro for example.

As far as imperial flags being seen on anti-government protests recently, I tend to agree with what other posters said. It is a notorious fact that, in some countries including Brazil ( but also in France, Portugal, etc.), there are monarchist groups which are openly reactionary and advocate a type of monarchy that is sharply different from the way modern constitutional monarchies now operate in Northern Europe or in Spain ( the only Southern European country where the monarchy has been successfully restored). The 2014–15 protests against the Rousseff government, without questioning whether they were justified or not, attracted nonetheless several right-wing or even far right-wing groups ,including monarchists , who were then disproportionately represented. In a way then , we are talking about a biased sample here.

 

[Blog Real]

With the new government in Brazil is there more chance of restoring the monarchy?

 

[Frozen Royalist]

With the new government in Brazil is there more chance of restoring the monarchy?

Well, President Jair Bolsonaro is a member of the Brazilian nationalist Social Liberal Party which has some monarchism within the organization but from what I've researched about the party, monarchism is a minor ideology compared to its major ideologies such as Nationalism, Conservativism, Militarism, Anti-Communism, and the Christian Right. I suppose if it suits the Social Liberal Party they would press for it but I think the chances of restoration under the new government is unlikely, to be Frank here.

IMO, Bolsonaro is probably going to turn out to be a combination of Donald Trump and a typical Latin American dictator where you see an increase of authoritarianism with a big cult personality. I just don't see this guy willingly handing the executive seat, whether ceremonial or not, to somebody else while he is in power. I suppose there is the chance this might increase the chance for restoration but at the moment only around 10-15% of the population would really support it and the rest either aren't sure or consider the pretenders and their supporters to be clowns, jokes, etc.

But, maybe I'll be proven wrong and we'll see a restored Empire of Brazil, though I doubt it. Thus this concludes my two cents on the matter.

-Frozen Royalist

 

[Troy Thompson]

My estimation is that the odds of the restoration of the Brazilian monarchy are going to be exceptionally low probably until the pretense is inherited by Prince Rafael. Until that point... Luiz and Bertrand represent many positions that are extremely out of step with the realities of contemporary Brazilian culture and aspirations. The values dissonance between the Brazilian people Luiz as their hypothetical Emperor would be irreconcilable.

But, if the Brazilian moanrchy is ever to be restored, it would probably have to be under the Vassouras branch, as the Petrópolis branch maintains its claim from descent through someone who surrendered all claim to the throne for himself and his descendants, and the current Petrópolis pretender is a confirmed republican (and consequently would probably not accept the crown if it were offered to him).

 

[lucien]

My estimation is that the odds of the restoration of the Brazilian monarchy are going to be exceptionally low probably until the pretense is inherited by Prince Rafael. Until that point... Luiz and Bertrand represent many positions that are extremely out of step with the realities of contemporary Brazilian culture and aspirations. The values dissonance between the Brazilian people Luiz as their hypothetical Emperor would be irreconcilable.

But, if the Brazilian moanrchy is ever to be restored, it would probably have to be under the Vassouras branch, as the Petrópolis branch maintains its claim from descent through someone who surrendered all claim to the throne for himself and his descendants, and the current Petrópolis pretender is a confirmed republican (and consequently would probably not accept the crown if it were offered to him).

Nothing will come of it...

 

[eya]

Prince Bertrand about the return of the Monarchy in Brazil

https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-n...s-insists-prince-bertrand-orleans-e-braganca/

 

[Frozen Royalist]

Well, here's a bit of a New Years present for us. On December 14th, 2019 there was a poll done about the possibility of a restoration of the monarchy in Brazil in which 32%, one out of three Brazilians were in favor of the reestablishment of the Empire of Brazil. There was a 98% confidence with a marginal error of 1 to 2%.The poll was also carried out in six different states in Brazil with a total of 188 people by the O Círculo Monárquico Brasileiro.

Say what you will, I honestly see this as good news for the movement with the previous poll at around 13% or 14% if I recall correctly. Maybe the poll is an indication of increased support in monarchism or maybe not. Shouldn't we take all the news we can get with a glass half full? Who knows, maybe there will be another referendum within a few decades, we can never know so let's be positive everybody

-Frozen Royalist

Happy New Year by the way.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:70a01065-d135-46bf-a04a-589820ee0e69

 

[Iluvbertie]

188 people out of 209 million is not statistically significant at all. 188,000 maybe but not 188.

 

[Denville]

Good lord, that is not at all likely to be any indication of true feeling. I did not know how many people ther are in Brazile but if its over 200 million, yes 188 people is nothing.. if a third of188 people, want the monarchy restored.. it means nothing.

 

[Mbruno]

Well, here's a bit of a New Years present for us. On December 14th, 2019 there was a poll done about the possibility of a restoration of the monarchy in Brazil in which 32%, one out of three Brazilians were in favor of the reestablishment of the Empire of Brazil. There was a 98% confidence with a marginal error of 1 to 2%.The poll was also carried out in six different states in Brazil with a total of 188 people by the O Círculo Monárquico Brasileiro.

Say what you will, I honestly see this as good news for the movement with the previous poll at around 13% or 14% if I recall correctly. Maybe the poll is an indication of increased support in monarchism or maybe not. Shouldn't we take all the news we can get with a glass half full? Who knows, maybe there will be another referendum within a few decades, we can never know so let's be positive everybody

-Frozen Royalist

Happy New Year by the way.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:70a01065-d135-46bf-a04a-589820ee0e69

That is obviously not a serious scientific poll.



Without getting too technical, each respondent's answer is what is called a Bernoulli random variable, which takes the value 1 if the respondent says he/she supports the restoration of the monarchy and value zero otherwise. If you have a sufficiently large number of respondents , the sum of those N Bernoulli rv's (which equals the total number of respondents who support the restoration) converges in distribution to a Gaussian (more commonly known as Normal) probability distribution. That is because of a result known in mathematics as the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and it allows you to derive an analytic expression (in lay terms, a formula) for the computation of the margin of error assuming a desired confidence interval.


Assuming N=188 is big enough for the CLT to hold (which I don't know) and assuming that uniform random sampling was used to select the respondents (also doubtful), a sample of 188 people would give a maximum margin of error of approximately plus or minus 7.14 under a 95 % confidence interval.

 

[eya]

Present among his supporters, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro put on his head a cap marked with this formula "make Brazil empire again", marking his support for the monarchy.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=644487419705722

 

[Marengo]

With friends like that I suppose the monarchic cause does not need any enemies.

 

[Friedrich Karl II]

With friends like that I suppose the monarchic cause does not need any enemies.

True. Bolsonaro is not best possible PR person.

 

[Blog Real]

Does Bolsonaro support the monarchy? I would like to see the restoration of the monarchy in Brazil.

 

[Friedrich Karl II]

Does Bolsonaro support the monarchy? I would like to see the restoration of the monarchy in Brazil.

I don't know about if Bolsonaro actually supports restoration of monarchy but he is not so great man to do that. The man is not called as "Trump of South America" without reason.

 

[CyrilVladisla]

Who would be Emperor of Brazil today?