Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Blog Real]

Spaniards do not see, by far, a problem in the Monarchy, according to the CIS.

The Monarchy is much more ingrained in Spanish society than some want to make believe. Even the last barometer of the CIS recognizes that the Crown is not a problem, not by far, for the Spaniards. Despite the attacks that the Institution is receiving in recent months, including those of some government ministers, and the negative news affecting Don Juan Carlos, only between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of Spaniards consider it a problem.

In particular, the CIS asks respondents what is "the main problem that currently exists in Spain", and in spontaneous response the Monarchy appears at number 31 in a list of 38. Instead, spaniards do consider politicians, the government and politics, who appear in the first places, a problem. In fact, this Barometer reflects that concerns about government management in the coronavirus crisis are growing.

https://www.abc.es/espana/casa-real...ema-monarquia-segun-202006181406_noticia.html

 

[theroyalfly]

This is mindblowing Blog_Real. Thank you for the information!

 

[Frozen Royalist]

Latest Poll Results

July 2020 Electomania Poll: 53.1% for Republic, 2.6% for Don't Know, and 44.4% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 SocioMetrica Poll: 49.3% for Republic, 1.8% for Don't Know, and 48.9% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 Invymark Poll: 39.0% for Republic, 29.3% for Don't Know, and 31.2% for Constitutional Monarchy.

The accusations against the former king have seriously caused a bit of a shake up for support for the royal family. The question is what is King Felipe VI, along with his oldest daughter once she's an adult, going to do in order to make support for the monarchy in the majority again.

In terms of party support, it's roughly even for pro-monarchy and pro-republic parties.

July 20 - 24 Invymark/laSexta poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
21.4% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.0% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
11.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)

July 20 - 24 ElectoPanel/Electomania poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
22.7% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.1% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
9.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)
3.8% for ERC (pro-republic and Catalan independence)
2.0% for Mas Pais (pro-republic)
2.4% for Junts per Catalunya (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
1.4% for EAJ PNV (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic)
1.3% for Eh Bildu (pro-republic and Basque Independence)
0.6% for CUP (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
0.5% for Canarian Coalition (pro-Canarian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.7% for BNG (pro-republic and Galician Independence)
0.4% for NA+ (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.2% for PRC (pro-Cantabrian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)

It should be noted that the constitution should still be taken into consideration where 2/3 of the seats in the Spanish parliament need to be in favor of a referendum on the future of the Spanish Royal Family. According to the latest polls, republicans do not enjoy that kind of support. It should also be noted that some republican parties refuse to work with the current PSOE-Podemos coalition government on grounds of being separatists.

So despite this month's opinion polls, the royal family is safe. But measures are badly needed in order to improve the monarchy's image, otherwise we could very well see a Third Spanish Republic before 2050 in my opinion.

-Frozen Royalist

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I don't think this is in the interest of the political system, without a monarchy the spotlight would be completely on them, no royal family any longer who can be used as a scapegoat etc. I believe that the monarchy will stay but that the professional life of the RF will not become more pleasant with time. Leonor will have a very hard time as Queen, a lot more difficult because she is a woman.

 

[Mbruno]

July 2020 Electomania Poll: 53.1% for Republic, 2.6% for Don't Know, and 44.4% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 SocioMetrica Poll: 49.3% for Republic, 1.8% for Don't Know, and 48.9% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 Invymark Poll: 39.0% for Republic, 29.3% for Don't Know, and 31.2% for Constitutional Monarchy.

The accusations against the former king have seriously caused a bit of a shake up for support for the royal family. The question is what is King Felipe VI, along with his oldest daughter once she's an adult, going to do in order to make support for the monarchy in the majority again.

In terms of party support, it's roughly even for pro-monarchy and pro-republic parties.

July 20 - 24 Invymark/laSexta poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
21.4% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.0% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
11.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)

July 20 - 24 ElectoPanel/Electomania poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
22.7% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.1% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
9.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)
3.8% for ERC (pro-republic and Catalan independence)
2.0% for Mas Pais (pro-republic)
2.4% for Junts per Catalunya (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
1.4% for EAJ PNV (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic)
1.3% for Eh Bildu (pro-republic and Basque Independence)
0.6% for CUP (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
0.5% for Canarian Coalition (pro-Canarian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.7% for BNG (pro-republic and Galician Independence)
0.4% for NA+ (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.2% for PRC (pro-Cantabrian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)

It should be noted that the constitution should still be taken into consideration where 2/3 of the seats in the Spanish parliament need to be in favor of a referendum on the future of the Spanish Royal Family. According to the latest polls, republicans do not enjoy that kind of support. It should also be noted that some republican parties refuse to work with the current PSOE-Podemos coalition government on grounds of being separatists.

So despite this month's opinion polls, the royal family is safe. But measures are badly needed in order to improve the monarchy's image, otherwise we could very well see a Third Spanish Republic before 2050 in my opinion.

-Frozen Royalist

Although Pedro Sánchez has said that he is personally a republican, a republic is not part of the official PSOE platform (at least not yet). In fact, Sánchez also said that "Felipe VI's monarchy" was an acceptable compromise on a divisive issue. Note that he didn't say "the monarchy" or any type of monarchy, but specifically "Felipe VI's monarchy", which I take to mean not only a limited monarchy under the strict terms of the constitution, but also an even more slimmed-down monarchy than in JC's reign.



Just to put it the context though, a constitutional amendment to end the monarchy requires a 2/3 majority in both houses of Parliament and in two consecutive parliaments, i.e. with a general election in between. And, then, as Frozen Royalist said, the amendment still needs to be confirmed in a popular referendum. Even if PSOE switched to support a republic officially, there wouldn't be a 2/3 majority for it in the current parliament.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

For comparison, are there any other monarchies reigning in democratic countries where a plurality (or majority) of the citizens support a republic?

 

[Mbruno]

For comparison, are there any other monarchies reigning in democratic countries where a plurality (or majority) of the citizens support a republic?

Based on available polls, I don’t think so, at least not in Europe.

Until recently, support for the monarchy in Spain was still around 54 or 55 % . I don’t know what has happened in the past months, but I would imagine it was a mix of JC’s scandals, Catalan separatism and the Covid crisis.

It would be interesting to see how the national numbers would look like if Catalonia were excluded from the poll.

In any case, unless PSOE switches to an openly republican platform, I don’t see a game changer in terms of serious movement in Parliament towards a republic.I still think the Spanish elite and most of the political establishment are behind Felipe VI . Leonor’s position may be less secure depending on how events unfold in the future.

 

[janelarn]

Who is "Electomania"? LOL
Last week there was a survey with more than 70 percent support for the monarchy, and you just have to see the tour they are doing for the country and the support and love they have.
The rest, spare.
Of course, Sánchez is a Republican, with not exactly moderate ideas, but far to the left, but he has a precarious majority and no matter how much they try to make up his polls, he loses followers every day.
*

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Who is "Electomania"? LOL
Last week there was a survey with more than 70 percent support for the monarchy, and you just have to see the tour they are doing for the country and the support and love they have.

Can you provide a link to this survey?

 

[Mbruno]

Link to the Electomania poll including interesting regional breakdowns.


https://electomania.es/epmonar10jul20/

PM Pedro Sánchez seems to rule out any move towards a republic in the current government.


https://elpais.com/espana/2020-07-2...cto-constitucional-ni-a-la-inestabilidad.html


The PM's statement in support of King Felipe VI comes shortly after his deputy, Pablo Iglesias, from the far-left Unidas Podemos bloc said that "the debate about the usefulness of the monarchy is growing in Spain, but admitted that constitutional change is unlikely in the short run.

Iglesias also distanced himself from the statement by the third vice-president of the Congress of Deputies, who called on King Felipe VI to abdicate and on a referendum on the monarchy to be held.

 

[janelarn]

Can you provide a link to this survey?

Not at all. These days there are thousands of accounts, of course telephone numbers in which 300 to 1000 or 1500 people interview, so I ignore absolutely none. I only see people on the street when the kings go on their tour of Spain and I love it!
On the other hand, saying that Sánchez is a REPUBLICAN, he has "kidnapped" the king and he has it, preventing him from going to certain parts and now to places in Spain- Continuously pressuring the king to kick his father out of Spain, but he is a wolf in sheep's clothing: you'll never see him say this in public against the king, because that's why he has his communist voice doing his dirty work.
All of us in Spain know that Sánchez has the king kidnapped, because he cannot bear to have him take center stage. The ego is horrible and in a politician it is FATAL.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Anti Monarchist protesters in Catalonia last week.

 

[Blog Real]

The departure from Spain of King Emeritus Juan Carlos has done well for the Monarchy. According to the survey conducted by Sociometric for EL ESPAÑOL, if Spaniards could choose the form of state today, they are more supportive of the current parliamentary monarchy, 54.9 than to exchange it for a republic, an option that supports 40.8. A difference that is close to 15 points.

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/po...PrbsF4O8qRo0Rf0XmKa55XXwRJeMxHax_y0UllfHz50pA

 

[An Ard Ri]

Anti Monarchy protests in Pamplona today.

 

[Mbruno]

Anti Monarchy protests in Pamplona today.

A protest by a crowd of Basque separatists waving Basque and Soviet flags. Hardly surprising.

It is interesting that anti-monarchists are seizing on the article in the constitution that guarantees the inviolability of the King. Don't all kingdoms in Europe (Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden) have basically the same inviolability in their own constitutions? The UK of course doesn't have a written constitution, but I suppose the inviolability of the Queen is also assumed by the British courts.


I understand that the situation in Spain is different because no other European monarch (or former monarch) is under threat of criminal prosecution like JC, but, in any case, the inviolability of the King is hardly something that is unique to Spain or which can be claimed to be a legacy of the Franco regime.

The departure from Spain of King Emeritus Juan Carlos has done well for the Monarchy. According to the survey conducted by Sociometric for EL ESPAÑOL, if Spaniards could choose the form of state today, they are more supportive of the current parliamentary monarchy, 54.9 than to exchange it for a republic, an option that supports 40.8. A difference that is close to 15 points.

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/po...PrbsF4O8qRo0Rf0XmKa55XXwRJeMxHax_y0UllfHz50pA

A surprising surge in support for the monarchy compared to the July poll (less than one month ago). Could it be down to JC's exile only?

 

[Darius1]

A protest by a crowd of Basque separatists waving Basque and Soviet flags. Hardly surprising.

It is interesting that anti-monarchists are seizing on the article in the constitution that guarantees the inviolability of the King. Don't all kingdoms in Europe (Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden) have basically the same inviolability in their own constitutions? The UK of course doesn't have a written constitution, but I suppose the inviolability of the Queen is also assumed by the British courts.
I understand that the situation in Spain is different because no other European monarch (or former monarch) is under threat of criminal prosecution like JC, but, in any case, the inviolability of the King is hardly something that is unique to Spain or which can be claimed to be a legacy of the Franco regime
A surprising surge in support for the monarchy compared to the July poll (less than one month ago). Could it be down to JC's exile only?

In the UK the Sovereign is the fount of justice and the law is made in their name. The Queen could not therefore prosecute herself (Regina vs Regina wouldn't work). Any trial would be by Parliament.

In September the CIS, the Spanish public research institute will conduct another survey into the desire to change the Constitution. The last such poll held in 2018 showed 70% in favour. There is a general feeling that the 1978 Constitution needs overhauled. The role of the King, immunity to prosecution and the state of the autonomous regions are likely to be targets for change.

 

[Blog Real]

54.8 of the respondents are in favour of the Monarchy versus the 38.5 that bets on a republic. Eight out of ten consider Felipe VI to have acted well with his father.

Up to 71.3 of the Spaniards values "good" or "very well" Don Juan Carlos's decision to leave the country.

https://www.larazon.es/espana/20200810/zwegurlyf5dfbpxhx2c73y3mu4.html

 

[Mbruno]

54.8 of the respondents are in favour of the Monarchy versus the 38.5 that bets on a republic. Eight out of ten consider Felipe VI to have acted well with his father.

https://www.larazon.es/espana/20200810/zwegurlyf5dfbpxhx2c73y3mu4.html

If those two latest polls are correct, it seems that JC's exile was an acceptable outcome for most of the Spanish public. Possibly the pressure for taking matters further and indicting the former king will also ease.


It is noteworthy though that, in the 18-34 age bracket, support for the republic is at 62.2 % and, for the monarchy, only 26.9 %. Conversely, in the 55+ age group, 74.6 % support the monarchy and only 19.7 % want a republic.

 

[Blog Real]

Most prefer the present Monarchy over the Republic.

The Parliamentary Monarchy remains the preferred state model of the Spaniards, according to this week's GAD3 survey for ABC. Despite the news published in recent months about The alleged accounts of Don Juan Carlos abroad, his forced departure abroad and the thirteen days later his whereabouts remain unknown, 56.3 per cent of respondents consider that the current Parliamentary Monarchy is the preferred state model for Spain, while 33.5 per cent would prefer the Republic.

In accordance with these results, the Spaniards have made a difference between the monarchical institution and the personal behavior of Don Juan Carlos, in the face of the attempt of the Vice-President of the Government.

https://www.abc.es/espana/casa-real...ia-frente-republica-202008160058_noticia.html

The Spaniards value the Royal Family better today than they did two years ago.

The Spaniards are still very positive today, and even better than two years ago, the Royal Family

The barometer has also been carried out in the midst of a campaign of attacks on the Monarchy, coming for the first time from members of the Government, and at a time of large public presence by the Kings, who this summer have suspended the holidays.

Even in these hostile circumstances, respondents have improved their assessment of the four Kings, since neither the fourteen-year-old Princess of Asturias nor infanta Sofia, thirteen, have been included in the barometer.

https://www.abc.es/espana/casa-real...ilia-real-hace-anos-202008160057_noticia.html

This poll is the highlight of today's ABC newspaper.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GUAeK0Y0...6990_956305448223418_286611733514390485_n.jpg

 

[Mbruno]

Most prefer the present Monarchy over the Republic.

The Parliamentary Monarchy remains the preferred state model of the Spaniards, according to this week's GAD3 survey for ABC. Despite the news published in recent months about The alleged accounts of Don Juan Carlos abroad, his forced departure abroad and the thirteen days later his whereabouts remain unknown, 56.3 per cent of respondents consider that the current Parliamentary Monarchy is the preferred state model for Spain, while 33.5 per cent would prefer the Republic.

In accordance with these results, the Spaniards have made a difference between the monarchical institution and the personal behavior of Don Juan Carlos, in the face of the attempt of the Vice-President of the Government.

https://www.abc.es/espana/casa-real...ia-frente-republica-202008160058_noticia.html

The Spaniards value the Royal Family better today than they did two years ago.

The Spaniards are still very positive today, and even better than two years ago, the Royal Family

The barometer has also been carried out in the midst of a campaign of attacks on the Monarchy, coming for the first time from members of the Government, and at a time of large public presence by the Kings, who this summer have suspended the holidays.

Even in these hostile circumstances, respondents have improved their assessment of the four Kings, since neither the fourteen-year-old Princess of Asturias nor infanta Sofia, thirteen, have been included in the barometer.

https://www.abc.es/espana/casa-real...ilia-real-hace-anos-202008160057_noticia.html

This poll is the highlight of today's ABC newspaper.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GUAeK0Y0...6990_956305448223418_286611733514390485_n.jpg

I am surprised to see that JC's score in the barometer is actually up compared to the last poll. I can't imagine why that would be the case.


The changes are actually small, maybe within the margin of error, but no drop anyway.



It is also interesting that Queen Sofia remains the highest rated Spanish royal. I suppose she is still the embodiment of the royal dignity in many people's minds.


The 56.3/33.5 monarchy/republic breakdown is also the biggest pro-monarchy lead in recent polls and a safe margin. It is indeed good news for the Royal House.

 

[Lipe]

I think King Juan carlos has increased in popularity , because most of us are disappointed with him, but nevertheless, we do not agree with that smear campaign that the Spanish media has launched against him and the Royal family. King Juan Carlos has increased in my opinion of support because the respondents have voted against that smear campaign that exists against him.

His relationship with Corinna has been destructive to his reputation, but that does not mean that his entire legacy as king should go to waste as the press has done with this case.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I am surprised to see that JC's score in the barometer is actually up compared to the last poll. I can't imagine why that would be the case.


The changes are actually small, maybe within the margin of error, but no drop anyway.



It is also interesting that Queen Sofia remains the highest rated Spanish royal. I suppose she is still the embodiment of the royal dignity in many people's minds.


The 56.3/33.5 monarchy/republic breakdown is also the biggest pro-monarchy lead in recent polls and a safe margin. It is indeed good news for the Royal House.

I think Sofia coming out on top reflects the older generation of Spain and their values. It will only become interesting when the old generation has gone, I don't think anyone in their 20s will understand or appreciate Sofia's way of life, stay with a cheating King for duty and service.

The polls also reflect that the young people either don't care (vast majority) or are not in favor.

It remains to be seen if this new generation becomes Felipists (as the old generation were Juancarlists) or even more importantly Leonoristas (or however you will call this).

 

[Mbruno]

I think Sofia coming out on top reflects the older generation of Spain and their values. It will only become interesting when the old generation has gone, I don't think anyone in their 20s will understand or appreciate Sofia's way of life, stay with a cheating King for duty and service.

The polls also reflect that the young people either don't care (vast majority) or are not in favor.

It remains to be seen if this new generation becomes Felipists (as the old generation were Juancarlists) or even more importantly Leonoristas (or however you will call this).

I learned to be cautious about arguments such as " X, Y or Z don't have any future in the long run because their support is too low among 20 year olds", basically because 20 year olds, as they grow older, actually may change their opinions, even politically (I certainly did myself).



Having said that, I agree Leonor has a job to do to build a base of suppport for herself. I think Felipe has already done it for himself by projecting the image of a diligent, professional and austere king. He may have antagonized the far left and the separatists, who would never be monarchists anyway, but he shored up his support among other sections of the population at the same time.


When Leonor and Sofia enter their late teen and young adult years, they will be in that "bonus phase" that any RF has in terms of young, attractive family members. It is a good time to build up their popularity among a younger crowd, but I don't know how that will necessarily boost support for the monarchy as a system of government, which, as Duc et Pair likes to say here in TRF, is a separate matter. It won't hurt though as long as the girls do their job right and are adequately coached.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I learned to be cautious about arguments such as " X, Y or Z don't have any future in the long run because their support is too low among 20 year olds", basically because 20 year olds, as they grow older, actually may change their opinions, even politically (I certainly did myself).



Having said that, I agree Leonor has a job to do to build a base of suppport for herself. I think Felipe has already done it for himself by projecting the image of a diligent, professional and austere king. He may have antagonized the far left and the separatists, who would never be monarchists anyway, but he shored up his support among other sections of the population at the same time.

Yes absolutely. The vast majority who does not care today, younger people, will certainly have an opinion later in life, either in favor or not. And it will be Leonor's job to influence this to favor.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Queen Sofia has been the most popular Spanish Royal for decades and the kings mother is an underused asset to the Monarchy.

 

[Blog Real]

I think Leonor will be popular, she will have the good influence of the parents who are giving everything for the monarchy.
Felipe VI is a very popular king and Queen Letizia also begins to be more popular.
Leonor will have a job ahead of her, but if she can be close to people and follow Felipe's advice, that could be a big help for her.
It will be very interesting to see Leonor's journey when she starts adulthood, but even now it is already interesting.
I have no doubt that she is being well prepared by the king and queen and the entire team at the royal house.

 

[tommy100]

Interesting reading. No wonder Sofia is remaining in residence, clearly she has the support and respect of the people. I didn’t realise how popular she was, puts alot into perspective

 

[An Ard Ri]

I thought the king might be more popular than his mother,but hopefully those advising the king at Zarzuela will take note of this.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I think Leonor will be popular, she will have the good influence of the parents who are giving everything for the monarchy.
Felipe VI is a very popular king and Queen Letizia also begins to be more popular.
Leonor will have a job ahead of her, but if she can be close to people and follow Felipe's advice, that could be a big help for her.
It will be very interesting to see Leonor's journey when she starts adulthood, but even now it is already interesting.
I have no doubt that she is being well prepared by the king and queen and the entire team at the royal house.

Leonor has been born into this life, that should help. To me, Felipe is absolutely genuine, the way his parents have groomed him to be King, both absolutely committed to keep the throne.

I think Sofia is different to Letizia, she was born royal herself, her brother lost a throne, and she only knows life that is sacrificed for duty, starting with her marriage.

Letizia spent half her life as a private and free person, and while she is publicly totally committed, I think some of her comments show how frustrated she must be at times, because she has no other choice but to pull through but knows a different, more carefree life that Felipe doesn't.

To publicly say that Leonor will do what she has to do, not what she wants to do, I don't think Sofia would have said the same thing about Felipe. Same goes for some comments about the media or the famous Mallorca comment, do you think this is vacation?

 

[Denville]

From the little I've seen of Q Sofia, she's pretty right wing and rather pushy, like that time she was insisting on her grandchildren having their pics taken with her... I thought that was rather odd and pushy behaviour...