The Future of the Norwegian Monarchy

[Mbruno]

The best possible thing right now would be if the King could convince Martha-Louise to renounce her rights and titles before she gets married without his having to take action against her. It would solve a lot of problems for the royal family, and it would demonstrate to the public how much respect she has for her father and the institution.

I don't think that there is any provision in the Norwegian constitution that allows voluntary renunciation of titles or succession rights. Titles of people in the line of succession are a prerogative of the King under the constitution, so the King (and, in my understanding, only he) can rescind or change those titles at any time. Succession rights, on the other hand, are forefeited when a person in the line of succession marries without the King's consent. In that case, the descendants of the person who married without consent are also excluded from the line of succession.

A different, and often controversial discussion, is whether "the King" in the constitution means the King personally, or, as some scholars argue, "the King in Council", i.e., the government of Norway. King Harald V has said that, when it comes to royal marriages, he sees Art. 36 of the constitution as his personal prerogative, but, in my personal and irrelevant opinion, in a constitutional monarchy, the task of advising the King to consent to a royal marriage or not should fall on the government. That is why I think that different Norwegian governments in my opinion are equally to blame for any alleged "permissiveness" in the approval of certain royal marriages in Norway, including Haakon's marriage to MM, or ML's two marriages to Ari Behn and Durek Verrett.

 

[Royalist.in.NC]

Here is an interesting article:

Norway slims down monarchy after princess weds shaman

Princess Martha Louise and her three children have been named on the ‘other royals’ list, while her husband, Durek Verrett, does not appear at all

www.thetimes.com

 

[Somebody]

I cannot read it as it is behind a paywall but the first sentence is already incorrect (ML's children aren't named on the 'other royals' list and both the three daughter (no picture) as well as her former and current husband (with picture) are mentioned in her biography), so I am not sure the rest of the article will be very informative.

See: Prinsesse Märtha Louise

 

[Royalist.in.NC]

I cannot read it as it is behind a paywall but the first sentence is already incorrect (ML's children aren't named on the 'other royals' list and both the three daughter (no picture) as well as her former and current husband (with picture) are mentioned in her biography), so I am not sure the rest of the article will be very informative.

See: Prinsesse Märtha Louise

I don’t subscribe to the Times so I didn’t realize - sorry. Here is a small excerpt. It’s weird that they got the lead wrong while the article states below:

“On Tuesday that changed. While the members of the “Royal Palace” remain the same, the monarchy has dropped the broader “Royal Family” designation. That means, Princess Martha Louise is now simply listed under “other royals”, while her extended family, including Verrett, are off the list entirely.

A spokeswoman for the palace said that the changes were nothing more than a “clarification” of roles. The palace line is that this has nothing to do with Verrett, but many Norwegians aren’t buying that.

“I’m just laughing,” said Tove Taalesen, the royal correspondent for Norwegian online newspaper Nettavisen and a former palace attendant, “of course this is to do with Durek and Martha Louise.”

 

[LadyFinn]

Haakon was asked in the county visit to clarify whether Märtha Louise and Durek broke the agreement not to use the princess title in commercial contexts, when they sold the rights to their wedding to the Hello! and Netflix.
Haakon said:
- We will have a further conversation about the agreement, and assume that the agreement will be followed. Now we will have an internal process, but it may take some time.

Kronprinsen svarer ikke på om prinsesse Märtha Louise brøt avtalen med kongehuset

– Vi skal ha en intern prosess, sier kronprins Haakon om hvorvidt søsteren Märtha Louise har brutt avtalen om ikke å bruke prinsessetittelen kommersielt.

www.adressa.no

 

[Muhler]

How many conversations have they had so far? I lost count. Is it six or seven?

 

[Somebody]

So far just assuming that the agreement would be followed didn’t work out, so you would hope they come up with a different strategy at some point.

 

[Blog Real]

The association “Norway as a republic” reports an increase in the number of members. Today this association has more than 500 members.
Today, around 62% say they support the monarchy.

Drømmer om en republikk

Foreningen «Norge som republikk» melder om økning i antall medlemmer. Men hvordan hadde en norsk republikk sett ut?

www.nrk.no

 

[Hans-Rickard]

62 % would have been a good and not the slightest alarming number had it been in Sweden, UK or any of the continental european monarchies….

But for Norway, that for much of its independent history has had a monarchy that has scored around 90 %…. it should be a reason for thoughts and reflections…

 

[LadyFinn]

Nettavisen's survey shows that the royal house is facing increasing skepticism among most people.
The vote is informal. Only readers of Nettavisen have been allowed to vote and a selection has not been made, the survey will not be representative.
On Thursday morning, over 30,000 readers had taken part in the survey, and the results give little encouragement to the royalists.
45 % believe that Norway will no longer be a monarchy in ten years' time. While 38 % believe in a continuation of the royal house, 18 % state that they are unsure of what the future holds for the royal institution.
(..)

Knusende: 30.000 har gitt sin spådom om monarkiet

Over 30.000 mennesker har talt.

www.nettavisen.no

 

[Healthy Sceptic]

I was wondering how the current polls look, those numbers have to be very concerning to the royal court.
I have a feeling public opinion is going to get worse the more that comes out, especially if MM is implicated in any way.

 

[BJB]

Nettavisen's survey shows that the royal house is facing increasing skepticism among most people.
The vote is informal. Only readers of Nettavisen have been allowed to vote and a selection has not been made, the survey will not be representative.
On Thursday morning, over 30,000 readers had taken part in the survey, and the results give little encouragement to the royalists.
45 % believe that Norway will no longer be a monarchy in ten years' time. While 38 % believe in a continuation of the royal house, 18 % state that they are unsure of what the future holds for the royal institution.
(..)

Knusende: 30.000 har gitt sin spådom om monarkiet

Over 30.000 mennesker har talt.

www.nettavisen.no

The core issue with such "votes" is that (due to how it is done) they come a lot down on the wording and people being against something tend to vote much more.

 

[Muhler]

Nettavisen's survey shows that the royal house is facing increasing skepticism among most people.
The vote is informal. Only readers of Nettavisen have been allowed to vote and a selection has not been made, the survey will not be representative.
On Thursday morning, over 30,000 readers had taken part in the survey, and the results give little encouragement to the royalists.
45 % believe that Norway will no longer be a monarchy in ten years' time. While 38 % believe in a continuation of the royal house, 18 % state that they are unsure of what the future holds for the royal institution.
(..)

Knusende: 30.000 har gitt sin spådom om monarkiet

Over 30.000 mennesker har talt.

www.nettavisen.no

I would take that with not a grain of salt, but a whole bag.
How representative of the Norwegian population are the readers of Nettavisen.no? Who are they? What age groups? Political leanings?
So while I'm in little doubt that any real survey conducted now would be very unpleasant reading for the NRF it is still too uncertain.

Give me two polls conducted at around the same time by professionals and lets look at the average of these two and then lets see.

IMO the monarchy in Norway is in a serious risk, but not yet in direct danger. It depends so very much on what emerges from now on and how the NRF handles it.
No matter what, Haakon may have to take some very brutal decisions at the beginning of his reign.

 

[pkl]

I would take that with not a grain of salt, but a whole bag.
How representative of the Norwegian population are the readers of Nettavisen.no? Who are they? What age groups? Political leanings?
So while I'm in little doubt that any real survey conducted now would be very unpleasant reading for the NRF it is still too uncertain.

Give me two polls conducted at around the same time by professionals and lets look at the average of these two and then lets see.

IMO the monarchy in Norway is in a serious risk, but not yet in direct danger. It depends so very much on what emerges from now on and how the NRF handles it.
No matter what, Haakon may have to take some very brutal decisions at the beginning of his reign.

To be honest, Nettavisen is known as a very unserious internet-magazine rather than a serious newspaper. And the readers there in general, alot of them, have very negative opinions on almost every matter where it is possible to be negative. You can just read all the comment fields in it, and they are normally negative - in every matter. But every person I know, that was positive to the monarchy, now are negative. They have a big PR-problem. The Crown Prince couple should go out with either a TV sent interview or an official statement is what many people say to me.

 

[Hans-Rickard]

Every ”opinion poll” should be taken with a grain of salt right now.. Especially if it’s conducted by a newspaper…

If there is a common thing in most crises, it is that people during an ongoing crisis wants quick action and someone who they can quickly point at to be held responsible - and when crises begins to calm down that the same people also have short memories and are quick to forgive, because people wants to forgive…

The stepson of the norwegian Crown Prince won’t alone bring down the norwegian monarchy… A possible tipping point could be if a court can establish that the Crown Prince and in worst case also the King, has regularly interfered and obstructed to keep Marius away from the judiciary system, or the judiciary system away from Marius…. We are NOT there yet as this is not even a court case yet..

 

[Blog Real]

At this moment the hope of the Norwegian monarchy is in King Harald V, Queen Sonja, Haakon, Ingrid Alexandra and also in Sverre Magnus.
At this moment, the NRF has to overcome this difficult phase and regain the trust of its people.

 

[LadyFinn]

Could the uproar around Marius, Märtha Louise and Durek mean the end of the monarchy?
Nettavisen organizes a live debate at Carls in the evening. The debate is streamed live on Nettavisen.
In the panel:

• Ulf André Andersen, editor-in-chief of Se og Hør
• Kai Thomas Ryen Larsen (Skrellex)
• Tove Taalesen, author, presenter and Nettavisen's royal house expert

Nettavisen live: Kan oppstyret rundt Marius, Märtha og Durek bety slutten på monarkiet?

Nettavisen arrangerer live-debatt på Carls mandag 25. november.

www.nettavisen.no

 

[Alondra]

Marius crimes, horrendous as they are, won't bring down the monarchy in Norway. It's extraordinarily difficult to change constitutional systems in European countries unless there is a revolution or a war. I have no idea if Norway's has a written Constitution with a parliamentary monarchy voted in by people's referendum. If it does, it means having another referendum to choose a different political system, when more than likely, the majority of parties (centre right and centre left) will refuse it.

Choosing a republic opens up another can of worms. Does the president have more or less powers than the government elected when a republican president is elected as well? Who is likely to be elected as president? Another politician? A person backed by multinationals to look after their own interests? A billionaire looking after their own?

Marius is still a peripheral person in the NRF even if the scandal is hitting them like a run away train. But he's not in the direct line to the throne, and if Ingrid Alexandra keeps doing what she does, the NRF will ride out this scandal.

 

[An Ard Ri]

In have no doubt that the popularity of the Monarchy will bounce back ,the king and queen have done a wonderful job and kept the ship steady.

 

[taogg]

Yes, the voters participating in this Norwegian internet magazine’s poll might be biased and unrepresentative of the broader Norwegian public. Yes, the questionnaire design could be flawed (I don’t read Norwegian, so this is just an assumption). And yes, changing the constitution is a difficult process.

However, we should not underestimate how seemingly a "small incident" (certainly the Marius scandal is not small) can snowball into significant consequences. Few in June 1914 could have imagined that an assassination in Sarajevo would spark a full-scale European war within a month.

A poll like this does more than reflect the opinions of a specific group; it can also influence others, even those who are not regular readers of this internet magazine.

I partially agree with Muhler that Haakon may have to make some very brutal decisions at the beginning of his reign because I believe it would be better for Harald to make brutal decisions during his reign rather than leaving them to the next generation. I applaud the late Queen Elizabeth’s proactive approach in appealing to the public for "granting" Camilla the title of Queen. (I understand this title doesn’t require public approval and the late Queen wasn't actually "appealing".) It would be embarrassing for a new king to have to tackle such sensitive matters immediately upon ascending the throne—especially since the Marius scandal is far more serious than Camilla’s title issue.

Given the severity of the Marius scandal, I also don’t think the Norwegian monarchy should wait until a new king to address this issue. A week is a long time in politics

 

[polyesco]

The Marius case will leave a dent in the NRF, but more importantly how it is handled by the NRF will be huge moving forward.
If it is shown that the Crown Princess did obstruct justice and got rid of evidence, this will leave a bigger dent. Is the Crown Prince Couple above the law?

Do Martha Louise and the Shaman keep commercializing her title? is the NRF for sale?

 

[Muhler]

I don't think Marius will bring down the monarchy in Norway, that would take active involvement by both MM and Haakon in somehow covering up for Marius to go to this level.
Nor will ML and her shaman bring down the monarchy. Not even combined with Marius.

But it could be the beginning of the end of the monarchy.
Because Marius is not going away, even if he lands in prison. At some point he will be released and the odds of him doing something stupid in the future is a very real thing and there will always be focus on him. And each time there is focus on him, that will reflect on the NRF, Unless they totally cut him off both officially and for real. And to be honest, I doubt that will happen until he reoffends. Because I think he is now so far out that rehabilitation is out the door. I doubt Marius would even be interested in rehabilitation, because at the end of the road is a boring normal life, where you get up every day, go to work, go home and go to bed. Can you imagine Marius being interested in that life? If so, your imagination is better than mine!
But Marius will be around well into the reign of Ingrid. So it's not only Haakon, who will have to deal with him, so will Ingrid.

ML and her Durek will continue pushing boundaries and cause problems. I can't see the two of them changing their ways. Why should they?
So while Marius is (hopefully) away for a few years ML and her Durak will take center stage again-again. And they are gonna be a problem for most if not all of Haakon's reign. And you can rest assured the Norwegian press will be very vigilant! So unless Haakon cuts off ML and the shaman, for real as well as publicly, they too will erode the reputation of the NRF.

And all these constant irritants may cause more and more resentment against the individual members of the NRF and finally the monarchy. And at some point there may be a real debate: If the NRF has turned into an embarrassing soap-opera, is there an alternative? And how do we set up such an alternative? Such a debate may take years, even a couple of decades, but once the ball is rolling downhill, it's quite a problem stopping it and rolling it uphill again. When the approval ratings drops below 50 % that's when the monarchy is in danger!
So the most important task in the long run for the NRF is to prevent the monarchy ending up at this stage.

The unpleasant question is: Is Haakon the man to prevent this?

 

[LadyFinn]

A survey conducted by Infact for Dagbladet.
"Has the criminal case against Marius Borg Høiby affected your trust in the royal house?"
The respondents answered:

1. Significantly weakened: 18.2 %
2. Somewhat weakened: 26.5 %
3. Unchanged: 47.9 %
4. Somewhat strengthened: 2.1 %
5. Significantly strengthened: 2.0 %
6. Don't know: 3.3 %

Historian and author Trond Norén Isaksen: "It is serious that almost half of them state that their trust in the royal family has been weakened. They live at the mercy of the people and are completely dependent on trust".

Tilliten stuper

Straffesaken mot Marius Borg Høiby (27) svekker folkets tillit til kongehuset, viser ny undersøkelse. Ikke overraskende og alvorlig, mener eksperter.

www.dagbladet.no