Some time back I expressed concern that Marius might pretty much get away with all this. Unfortunately I believe there is reason to still be very much concerned.
First of all: The police will not investigate, question and even arrest someone like Marius if they didn't believe there was a case. That simply won't happen.
So if we look at it with ice-cold eyes.
Marius is officially a first time offender. That's important to keep in mind.
He is charged with domestic abuse of three women, Snekkestad, Haugland and the Frogner woman.
Okay, unless there is physical evidence or witnesses the cases involving Snekkestad and Haugland are pretty weak. On the contrary Marius accuse Snekkestad of abusing him. Which the court has to take serious.
The Frogner woman is more solid: Police report, knife in wall, text messages from Marius admitting to at least some sort of abuse and threatening behavior. Witnesses seeing Marius verbally abusing his girlfriend. But she is reluctant to press charges - and when the time comes probably also in testifying against Marius. No wonder Marius has been so eager to contact her!
So that third case could end up with being a fairly minor domestic disturbance, while Marius was under influence and he is sooo sorry, and he still loves her, blah, blah... - He could get away with a suspended sentence.
Then there is a threat against an unknown man. There is solid evidence for that in the form of a recording. But Marius was under influence, distraught, whatever - and of course he would never harm anyone and he is sooo sorry... - At worst a suspended sentence.
Then there are three counts of sexual assaults. With pretty solid evidence in the form of Marius filming himself.
The drug rape of a woman in the spring this year. The woman apparently just want to leave that experience behind her. Who can blame her? She is likely to be ripped into by Marius defense in court. But this IMO is the most serious threat to Marius of all the charges. Yet, unless it can be proven that she really was out cold and there was no way this was not consensual or could be mistaken for consensual, Marius could get away with basically violating her privacy. That could lead to a major fine and Marius paying compensation to the victim - or at least someone paying compensation - and perhaps a suspended sentence.
In September Marius seemingly drug-raped a second woman and filmed it. The Skaugum woman. But she is not at all interested in pressing charges, in fact she might have been out cold, but she was fine with Marius doing what he did, and she doesn't want any restraining order against Marius as she and Marius are still good friends. So fat chance of her testifying against Marius in court. - He's likely to be acquitted.
Not long ago a female friend of this Skaugum woman was subjected to some kind of sexual offense by Marius at Skaugum, with the Skaugum woman present there as well. We don't know what kind of offense and what else went on, but I think it's safe to say that the Skaugum woman will not testify against Marius or at least play down what happened. And anyway Marius was under influence, he was a bit fresh, the whole thing was a misunderstanding and he is sooo sorry. - So a warning seems likely for a first time offender.
Marius has under several occasions broken the restriction order, but he was concerned, apologetic, in love, distraught and sooo sorry. - I don't know what sentence he might get but my guess is at worst three or four weeks in jail. Keep in mind that the Frogner woman is not particularly keen to witness against Marius either.
Even when you put all that together, Marius as an official first time offender who is having some personal issues, might well get away with a longer suspended sentence or a couple of months in prison at worst.
Rape and abuse are notoriously difficult to prove.
So sometime next year it is not unlikely that Marius will leave court with a big grin on his face.
The consequences of such images for the NRF, especially if his very protective mother Mette Marit is at his side, smiling as well, are to put it mildly interesting to speculate about!
(BTW even with a minor prison sentence Marius is likely to be send home to await the call up for him to go to prison up to some months later.)
In my own country there is no question that the royal family would be crucified! Marius would also be in jail until the trial, no doubt about that as well! But I can't really gauge the Norwegian public opinion on this, to be honest. Only Norwegian members here would be able to do that I believe.
