Conclave to Select a New Pope

[Ista]

A thread to discuss
the Conclave
to select a successor to Pope Francis
May 7, 2025




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[An Ard Ri]

The BBC speculates on possible front runners
Cardinal Pizzaballa -Italy
Cardinal Parolin -Italy
Cardinal Czerny - Canada
Cardinal Tagle - Philippines
Cardinal Ambongo -The Congo
Cardinal Turkson -Ghana
Cardinal Erdo -Hungary
Cardinal Scola -Italy
Cardinal Marx -Germany
Cardinal Ouellet -Canada
Cardinal Prevost -USA
Cardinal Sarah -Guinea
Who will be the next Pope? The top candidates in an unpredictable process

 

[Linda_26]

The BBC speculates on possible front runners
Cardinal Pizzaballa -Italy
Cardinal Parolin -Italy
Cardinal Czerny - Canada
Cardinal Tagle - Philippines
Cardinal Ambongo -The Congo
Cardinal Turkson -Ghana
Cardinal Erdo -Hungary
Cardinal Scola -Italy
Cardinal Marx -Germany
Cardinal Ouellet -Canada
Cardinal Prevost -USA
Cardinal Sarah -Guinea
Who will be the next Pope? The top candidates in an unpredictable process

Another name which has been mentioned is Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, progressive and close to the late Pope Francis (even though Cardinal Zuppi himself has said he doesn't think he will he elected).
Two of the cardinals mentioned here- Scola and Ouellet- are over 80 years old, which means they won't take part in the Conclave.The cardinals electors are all those who had not yet turned 80 the day before the see became vacant (in this case, all those born on or after 21 April 1945).
While their election is not technically impossible, it's extremely unlikely that someone who isn't among the Cardinal electors will become Pope (the last time was in the 14th century).

 

[Hans-Rickard]

I have also seen the names of Cardinal Krajewski from Poland, Cardinal Zuppi from Italy and Cardinal Arborelius from Sweden being mentioned by some..

But Cardinal Arborelius (from my homecity Stockholm) has rebutted this, voicing his opinion that it would feel more natural to him to see a pope coming from Africa or Asia, than another one from Northern Europe.

But it’s really totally unpredictable (at least for us outside of the College of Cardinals) who it will be (and i like that)

 

[Blog Real]

The conclave to elect a new pope will begin on May 7, a Vatican source said today.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/conclave-elect-new-pope-start-may-7-vatican-source-2025-04-28/

 

[An Ard Ri]

No saw Pope Francis as a potential Pontiff in 2013 and was a real surprise to many avid Vatican watchers.
This conclave could be one of the most difficult to predict given how the late Pope Francis created 25 new Cardinals from countries that never had a Cardinal in the past.

 

[Hallo girl]

It is Cardinal Turkson for me, he has the kind gentle face that a Pope should have. Not very scientific on my part, I know.
It will probably be the Cardinal from the Philippines though.

 

[Mbruno]

No saw Pope Francis as a potential Pontiff in 2013 and was a real surprise to many avid Vatican watchers.
This conclave could be one of the most difficult to predict given how the late Pope Francis created 25 new Cardinals from countries that never had a Cardinal in the past.

That is not exactly true. Jorge Bergoglio had been the runner-up in the conclave that elected Pope Benedict XVI in 2005. No one was betting on him in 2013 because they thought he was old news, but he made a comeback.

An equivalent scenario in 2025 would be a comeback by 2013 runner-ups such as Marc Ouellet. That is not impossible. Although Ouellet is no longer an elector at 80, he is still eligible to be elected.

I don't think they will elect someone over 80 this time though. My gut feeling is probably completely wrong, but I will say it anyway:

1. Parolin has little charisma and never ran a diocese. Given the emphasis on pastoral experience nowadays and on being mediatic, I don't think the cardinals will elect him pope.

2. Zuppi is too liberal to reach the majority of two-thirds and Sarah is too conservative (besides, Sarah may be considered too old).

So, I think it will come down to Tagle (supported by the pro-Francis group) versus Pizzaballa (representing the centrists) and Erdo (representing the conservatives, with lower chances than the former). If there is a deadlock, an unexpected compromise candidate will emerge and I will be bold enough to say it would be Robert Francis Prevost (in that deadlocked scenario).

Again, probably the outcome will be completely different from what I think, but anyway that is my opinion.

 

[Hallo girl]

That is not exactly true. Jorge Bergoglio had been the runner-up in the conclave that elected Pope Benedict XVI in 2005. No one was betting on him in 2013 because they thought he was old news, but he made a comeback.

An equivalent scenario in 2025 would be a comeback by 2013 runner-ups such as Marc Ouellet. That is not impossible. Although Ouellet is no longer an elector at 80, he is still eligible to be elected.

I don't think they will elect someone over 80 this time though. My gut feeling is probably completely wrong, but I will say it anyway:

1. Parolin has little charisma and never ran a diocese. Given the emphasis on pastoral experience nowadays and on being mediatic, I don't think the cardinals will elect him pope.

2. Zuppi is too liberal to reach the majority of two-thirds and Sarah is too conservative (besides, Sarah may be considered too old).

So, I think it will come down to Tagle (supported by the pro-Francis group) versus Pizzaballa (representing the centrists) and Erdo (representing the conservatives, with lower chances than the former). If there is a deadlock, an unexpected compromise candidate will emerge and I will be bold enough to say it would be Robert Francis Prevost (in that deadlocked scenario).

Again, probably the outcome will be completely different from what I think, but anyway that is my opinion.

You at least have theories and substantial reasons, I just liked Cardinal Turksons face / smile.

 

[An Ard Ri]

I have also seen the names of Cardinal Krajewski from Poland, Cardinal Zuppi from Italy and Cardinal Arborelius from Sweden being mentioned by some..

But Cardinal Arborelius (from my homecity Stockholm) has rebutted this, voicing his opinion that it would feel more natural to him to see a pope coming from Africa or Asia, than another one from Northern Europe.

But it’s really totally unpredictable (at least for us outside of the College of Cardinals) who it will be (and i like that)

I personally don't see any White Smoke for Europe and thinking that the next Pope will be either from the Americas or the Philippines.

 

[Linda_26]

I personally don't see any White Smoke for Europe and thinking that the next Pope will be either from the Americas or the Philippines.

I have a feeling (and I could be very wrong, of course) that the next Pope will either come from outside Europe (Asia or Africa in particular) or it will be another Italian for the first time in almost 47 years (since the untimely death of John Paul I, Albino Luciani, in September 1978 after 33 days of Pontificate), with the former being a bit more likely than the latter.
I've just noticed, by the way, that one of the previously-mentioned candidates, Cardinal Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, was born on 21st April 1965, which means that he turned 60 on the very day Pope Francis died

 

[Kaye1850]

I've just noticed, by the way, that one of the previously-mentioned candidates, Cardinal Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, was born on 21st April 1965, which means that he turned 60 on the very day Pope Francis died

I cannot help smiling at this Cardinal’s name…

 

[Curryong]

I am a non RomanCatholic and know nothing about this at all. However, I just have a feeling that the new Pope may well be from the Philippines, a very devout country.

Cardinal Tagle is in his sixties so not too old, Is reasonably moderate yet quite progressive and, as others have said, he may well have the backing of quite a few fellow Filipino cardinals in the conclave.
Other than that I just hope a Cardinal is appointed who shared some of the late Pope’s views on the Church moving forward. I just wouldn’t like to see a conservative become Pontiff.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Cardinal McElroy ,the Archbishop of Washington DC was mentioned a few times also as one to watch , a firm and loyal supporter of the late Pope Francis.

 

[Stefan]

I cannot help smiling at this Cardinal’s name…

Perhaps we will then get all Pizza.
I guess that it is not so likely that he is the one as he is very young, and that would mean that a long Pontificiat is likely. But then as a protestant i have no and i don't really care.

 

[Hans-Rickard]

I hope they will elect someone who is close to Pope Francis in his core-questions like caring for the poorest and most marginalised, cotinuing to uproot corruption and pedophile-priests, and who is also not afraid of speaking out loud for a changed language and behaviour from the church towards women and lgbtq+ people…

In other words, i do NOT hope for white smoke followed by a proclamation of Cardinal Sarah, Cardinal Burke, Cardinal Erdö or Cardinal Müller…
(or any of the current african cardinals with the exception of Cardinal Turkson)

But there is also the diplomatic side of the harsh world we’re living in… The next pope will also be a leading part of the world that has to handle the war in Ukraine, the wars and conflict zones in the middle east, and the geopolitical tensions with the risk of a World War 3 being around the corner…

That’s why i think it is no longer possible for the church to elect a Dogma-Professor with little or no experience of ”outside-of-europe-diplomacy”…

Cardinal Parolin did very well during his 11 years as Secretary of State in some of the most challenging years for the world since WW2… He knows the curia inside out and his background in the holy see’s diplomatic service makes him well suited as roman pontiff in todays world… Though he lacks diocesan experience wich most popes have had, and is italian wich may not be in his favour nowdays… Some also says he is not enough charismatic but i think he sounds exactly like pope Benedict when he speaks, and he was elected anyway…

Cardinal Tagle is obviously medias favourite… He too has international experience and also diocesan experience… He is entusiastic, easy to understand and speaks english unusually fluently for being an asian Cardinal so i understand why many journalists likes him… Though i wonder if he is really as popular within the vatican ? He was dismissed from Caritas International, and he is accused of interfering in politics in the Phillipines by channeling church funds to political opponents…

3 favourites of mine based on what i have read and heard about them are Cardinal Pizzaballa, Cardinal Krajewski and Cardinal Tolentino de Mendoça.

Cardinal Pizzaballa (could you possibly have a more italian name ? ) the latin patriarch of Jerusalem who has lived in Israel for most of his adult life, for his brave stance in the Gaza-conflict and his selfless offering of himself in exchange for the hostages…

Cardinal Krajewski who is from Poland has gone from being one of the Master of Ceremonies, to a Cardinal with the perhaps most emotionally difficult assignment in the curia, and has done it incredibly well… Francis appointed him as Papal Almoner in 2013 with the words ”you can sell your desk because you won’t need it anymore. You have to get up and get out and actively search and look for those who really needs you because they won’t come to your office”… Since then Cardinal Krajewski has been instrumental in promoting Francis vision of caring for those without a home, children without parents, migrants, sexworkers, refugee’s etc out on the field and not in an office… And he has visited Ukraine several times since the war-outbreak and delivered aid personally, often with a great risk for his own life…

Cardinal Tolentino de Mendoça is a highly educated university professor but also prefect of the dicastery for culture and education, and a popular poet and writer in his homecountry Portugal… He would bring both a deep understanding of the religions, and art and culture to the forefront wich is always a good thing…

But Pizzaballa and Tolentino are 60 this year and Krajewski 62 so they may have their age against them in a papal election…

But there is really nothing more unpredictable than a papal conclave… And we should have learned from the conclaves in 2005 and 2013 that there is nothing that is called ”too old to be elected”

 

[An Ard Ri]

Just looking at the country of origin of some of the past 266 Popes
217 have been from the Italian Peninsula
16 were from France (Kingdom of France)
1 Pope from England
1 Pope from the Netherlands
1 Pope from Poland
1 Pope from Germany
1 Pope from Argentina
2 Popes were from Spain
6 Popes from the Holy Roman Empire
The Rest were from various parts of the Roman Empire

 

[Biri]

I hope they will elect someone who is close to Pope Francis in his core-questions like caring for the poorest and most marginalised, cotinuing to uproot corruption and pedophile-priests, and who is also not afraid of speaking out loud for a changed language and behaviour from the church towards women and lgbtq+ people…

In other words, i do NOT hope for white smoke followed by a proclamation of Cardinal Sarah, Cardinal Burke, Cardinal Erdö or Cardinal Müller…
(or any of the current african cardinals with the exception of Cardinal Turkson)

But there is also the diplomatic side of the harsh world we’re living in… The next pope will also be a leading part of the world that has to handle the war in Ukraine, the wars and conflict zones in the middle east, and the geopolitical tensions with the risk of a World War 3 being around the corner…

That’s why i think it is no longer possible for the church to elect a Dogma-Professor with little or no experience of ”outside-of-europe-diplomacy”…

Cardinal Parolin did very well during his 11 years as Secretary of State in some of the most challenging years for the world since WW2… He knows the curia inside out and his background in the holy see’s diplomatic service makes him well suited as roman pontiff in todays world… Though he lacks diocesan experience wich most popes have had, and is italian wich may not be in his favour nowdays… Some also says he is not enough charismatic but i think he sounds exactly like pope Benedict when he speaks, and he was elected anyway…

Cardinal Tagle is obviously medias favourite… He too has international experience and also diocesan experience… He is entusiastic, easy to understand and speaks english unusually fluently for being an asian Cardinal so i understand why many journalists likes him… Though i wonder if he is really as popular within the vatican ? He was dismissed from Caritas International, and he is accused of interfering in politics in the Phillipines by channeling church funds to political opponents…

3 favourites of mine based on what i have read and heard about them are Cardinal Pizzaballa, Cardinal Krajewski and Cardinal Tolentino de Mendoça.

Cardinal Pizzaballa (could you possibly have a more italian name ? ) the latin patriarch of Jerusalem who has lived in Israel for most of his adult life, for his brave stance in the Gaza-conflict and his selfless offering of himself in exchange for the hostages…

Cardinal Krajewski who is from Poland has gone from being one of the Master of Ceremonies, to a Cardinal with the perhaps most emotionally difficult assignment in the curia, and has done it incredibly well… Francis appointed him as Papal Almoner in 2013 with the words ”you can sell your desk because you won’t need it anymore. You have to get up and get out and actively search and look for those who really needs you because they won’t come to your office”… Since then Cardinal Krajewski has been instrumental in promoting Francis vision of caring for those without a home, children without parents, migrants, sexworkers, refugee’s etc out on the field and not in an office… And he has visited Ukraine several times since the war-outbreak and delivered aid personally, often with a great risk for his own life…

Cardinal Tolentino de Mendoça is a highly educated university professor but also prefect of the dicastery for culture and education, and a popular poet and writer in his homecountry Portugal… He would bring both a deep understanding of the religions, and art and culture to the forefront wich is always a good thing…

But Pizzaballa and Tolentino are 60 this year and Krajewski 62 so they may have their age against them in a papal election…

But there is really nothing more unpredictable than a papal conclave… And we should have learned from the conclaves in 2005 and 2013 that there is nothing that is called ”too old to be elected”

Cardinal Karol Wojtyła was 58 when he was elected.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Perhaps they will break with tradition and and elect a younger Pope?
(By that I mean late 50's /early 60's)

From CBS on the upcoming Papal Conclave

39% of the Cardinal Electors are European Cardinals
11.85% are in North America
12.5% are in South America
13.3% are in Africa
17% are in Asia

 

[Hans-Rickard]

Cardinal Karol Wojtyła was 58 when he was elected.

I know that very well… But he was followed by a 78 year old and then a 76 year old..

Apart from him and Pope Pius IX (pope 1846-1878) who was 54 when elected, no pope in modern time have been below 60 when elected… Not saying it can’t happen again but it would be a big surprise.

 

[Stefan]

Cardinal Karol Wojtyła was 58 when he was elected.

and he had the second longest Pontificat ever. From what one hears most of the Cardinals are not so keen to have a Pope who remains in office for so long, and as the usually remain for live that could well be the case if someone around 60 or even younge is choosen

 

[Somebody]

A young pope would increase the likelihood of a long papal reign by said pope. For those that might be interested in the top job themselves, that isn’t a favorable idea. Hopefully, they are wise enough not to let personal ambitions get in the way of picking the right pope for these times.

 

[Linda_26]

Apart from him and Pope Pius IX (pope 1846-1878) who was 54 when elected, no pope in modern time have been below 60 when elected… Not saying it can’t happen again but it would be a big surprise.

Yes, I'd say that under 60 is unlikely, but I hope he will be under 70 this time.
It's also interesting to wonder what might be the name the new Pope will choose for himself.
I must say I would like a John XXIV, or, why not, a Francis II.

 

[sophie25]

I don't like the words conservative or progressive when talking about popes. The World shouldn't dictate Church teaching. Other churches who have let the tail wag thd dog have badly suffered because of it.

 

[Hans-Rickard]

Yes, I'd say that under 60 is unlikely, but I hope he will be under 70 this time.
It's also interesting to wonder what might be the name the new Pope will choose for himself.
I must say I would like a John XXIV, or, why not, a Francis II.

I remember last time when i heard the Cardinal-Protodeacon say Georgium Marium Sanctae Romanae Ecclesiae Cardinalem Bergoglio… I knew who he was and that he was a jesuit so i immediately thought he would take Ignatius as a papal name (after Saint Ignatius of Loyola, the founder of the jesuit order)

Then the Cardinal-Protodeacon says qui sibi nomen imposuit ”Franciscum”… It was really surprising

All the journalists was expecting traditional papal names like John, Paul, Leo or Pius so they didn’t even understood what the cardinal had said at first… One american journalist was really confused and proclaimed ”Pope Fransesko”

I don’t know if i dare to guess about future papal names… There is so many possibilities… I would like to see a papal name that have been used before but not used in a long time…

 

[Sancia]

I hope they will elect someone who is close to Pope Francis in his core-questions like caring for the poorest and most marginalised, cotinuing to uproot corruption and pedophile-priests, and who is also not afraid of speaking out loud for a changed language and behaviour from the church towards women and lgbtq+ people…

Cardinal Sarah will turn 80 in a few months. Here in France the most conservative (not to say anything else) part is strongly supporting him, but he has done a lot of political errors and even from a very conservative point of view, he could be a diplomatic nightmare.

I like cardinal Turkson and I would be delighted with him but he was said to very tired at the end of his term as Dicastery Prefect. His mission was quite exhausting.

 

[Mirabel]

A young pope would increase the likelihood of a long papal reign by said pope. For those that might be interested in the top job themselves, that isn’t a favorable idea. Hopefully, they are wise enough not to let personal ambitions get in the way of picking the right pope for these times.

I've read that the cardinals would prefer NOT to have a long papacy. I've heard that the ideal candidate would not be any younger than about 75.

 

[Somebody]

I've read that the cardinals would prefer NOT to have a long papacy. I've heard that the ideal candidate would not be any younger than about 75.

Exactly, that was the point I made. However, I hope that age will not be their main consideration. I doubt the church is best served with electing older popes (out of personal ambitions).

 

[Somebody]

While there is no requirement to be a cardinal to be elected pope, it is much more likely that a cardinal will be chosen instead of a divisive auxiliary bishop.

 

[duke of poliganc]

How long did previous conclaves lasted for?