Originally Posted by Marengo
The few remaining monarchists in European republics will often be ultra-conservative and thus support the most conservative option available.
That is true, but I strongly suspect the timing of the defections from the Savoy senior line has more to do with what was happening in a very public way with VE in the 3-4 years leading up to 2007. He was exposed once again as a thoroughly shady character to the extent that even his son distanced himself from his father at the time.
The sudden leak of documentary proof of Umberto's intent to disinherit his son should he marry Marina provided a perfect traditionalist / legitimist cover for the Italian monarchists' defections. That crowd did not wish to lose what little social credibility they enjoyed by rallying around a dirty and corrupt character. I suspect Umberto's dynastic disinheritance of his son was an open secret among that crowd and that the documentation was kept aside as an insurance policy should VE's supporters ever need to jettison him in the event he proved to be hopelessly toxic as a figurehead.
Note I have repeatedly used the words “I suspect” as this is a personal opinion
arrived at after reviewing the chronology of events.