Monarchy and Restoration; Rival Families and Claimants

[BeatrixFan]

Well, surely that would only happen if the restored Royals were practising Orthodox Christians and the Church was given back some kind of political role as well as religious one?

[BorisRom]

Dear Black Cat, BeatrixFan and all participants of discussion of this theme,
I with the big interest and pleasure have read your messages and I agree with the majority of posts. For a long time I am interested in a history of Russia and especially in time of board of Nicholas II (see my posts in other themes of this forum also - “ Nicholas and Alexandra ” and “ OTMAA ’).
__ I think, the Russia really need the hereditary monarchy and I think, that the monarchy in Russia will be restored in 2012-2014.
__ Starting approximately since 2003 in Russian mass-media in increasing frequency there are articles for the benefit of the monarchy. For example, on February, 7, 2004 in the largest newspaper "News (Известия)" the article of the colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs R.Zlotnikov «Monarchy - mother of a prosperity» has been published:

___«Earlier at a word "monarchy" I contemptiously bent lips. People, in the modern world seriously concerned to a monarchy, seemed to me "clowns", such played "old teenagers".
But once I saw the directory with a rating of the United Nations on quality and life expectancy. I with surprise have found out, that seven countries from first ten are the monarchies. I tried to explain it by accidental. Then I have thought, that all these countries first of all are democracies. A monarchy there - only the tradition which is not having any practical value. Is it possible to count Canada or Australia as the monarchic states? In fact where are they, and where are the British queen?! But this question has touched me to the quick, and I started "to dig". And I have come to the conclusions which have struck me.
First, the monarchy is not one of forms of board, but more likely the most successful form of the organization of the nation. I understand under "the nation" not the certain limited ethnos, but all set of peoples, which managed to create a strong and steady state, irrespective of the sizes of this state.
Let's tell, Flamand-Wallon nation in due time has managed to create the Kingdom Belgium, Austria-Hungary-Czeho-Slovakia - mighty Austria-Hungary, and Serbo-Croatian - Yugoslavia.
___ Interesting law: in case of the multinational state an integrity of the country is kept only at safety of a monarchy. And where a monarchy had been lost, there such state had been destroyed.
Today a monarchy is extremely flexible and many-sided system in a range from ancient forms (successfully working in the Arabian states of the Near East), up to a monarchic variant of the democratic state in many European countries.
Russia in Europe has "country - twin" which has passed through the revolution, and through the civil war, and through the variant of totalitarianism. It is Spain. And so, when the monarchy there has revived, in this country there were no steady political parties. Spain hardly left the totalitarian past. Spaniards had the putsch, and the Chechens - Basques. However they have done without execution of parliament and without «antiterrorist operation», and they have managed thus to develop(unwrap) priorities of all society, that it itself (without the help of militarians) has repulsed terrorism. After only ten years Spaniards already had stable economy and have come in members of European Economic Community...
And now compare it what we (Russians) have on 16-th year of "democratic transformations".
___ Thus, a monarchy is not an appendix to a stability and a prosperity, but it is an additional resource allowing more easy to overcome illness, to recover from political and economic defeats more faster».

You can look my article about restoration of a monarchy in Russia (in Russian):
http://www.petroprognoz.spb.ru/prognostic/mistic/art42-Monarhia2014.html

Boris

I’m sorry for my imperfect English

[branchg]

I do not believe the Russian people are prepared to support a restoration of the monarchy any time soon. While there is a monarchist element present in society, the majority of Russians are not interested in visiting the past and most have no point of reference.

It is irrelevant to wider issues in a weak democracy and dictatorship tendencies in the Kremlin.

[Alison20]

Very interesting posting, BorisRom. (And your English is quite intelligible - and light-years better than most of our Russian!).

I always feel that a constitutional monarchy has the advantage of removing politics from the Head of State. This allows everyone to look to the monarchy in its role of representing the nation, its traditions and aspirations. And this is why, as you state, multicultural/multilingual countries can survive with this form of government.

[HRH Kerry]

Originally Posted by branchg

I do not believe the Russian people are prepared to support a restoration of the monarchy any time soon. While there is a monarchist element present in society, the majority of Russians are not interested in visiting the past and most have no point of reference.

It is irrelevant to wider issues in a weak democracy and dictatorship tendencies in the Kremlin.

I agree. The government itself has someways to go as I feel they aren't as stable as they can be but they are getting there. When will they be ready to accept this change?

[BorisRom]

Dears Branchg, Alison20, Kerry and all

1. I’m agree that a restoration of the monarchy in Russia is irrelevant to wider issues in a weak democracy and dictatorship tendencies in the Kremlin. I’m agree that the majority of Russians are not prepared to support a restoration of the monarchy now. Moreover, the majority of Russians badly understand a foundations and many principles of democracy. Alas, we have the democracy (the week democracy) in March-October 1917 and 1991-1996 (may be 2002) only.
2. However, all these statements were true for Spain and Spaniards in 1970th years also - before coming to power of king Juan Carlos I in 1978. As far as I know, the majority of Spaniards those years have rather critically apprehended a restoration of a monarchy and even the person of Juan Carlos too.

By the way, this year Russian radio station «Echo of Moscow» has carried out an interrogation: Would you like, that such person how Juan Carlos, has headed Russia?
( http://www.echo.msk.ru/cgi-bin/v.cgi?mode=result&poll_id=3081 )
Results of voting on the air:
«Yes» = 95 %
«No» = 5 %
You can open Polls’s List:
<http://www.echo.msk.ru/cgi-bin/v.cgi>
and to find there any leader (under the question “Do you want…” (in Russian)) and to click “See a result ” (in Russian).
For example:
Juan CARLOS: +95%/-5%
Jackues CHIRAC +91%/-9%
Hillari CLINTON: +89%-11%
Toni BLAIR: +82%/-18%
Shimon PERES: +76%/-24%
Hugo CHAVES: +55%/-45%
Silvio BERLUSCONI: +42%/-58%
So, the firsts five Leaders have ratings more than Putin (his rating is about 70-73% )


Boris

[Jo of Palatine]

IMHO one real important problem is that there is no male pretender of the direct line. Head of the House of Romanov as accepted by the Rusian government and European royality is a woman whose son is a Prussian prince - a German. While this was okay with Empress Elisabeth and her German nephew Peter II. I don't see public support for a woman with a German son as heir.

[BorisRom]

Jo of Palatine,
You are right. This real important problem is. I don't know its decision.
___ Frederik Forsyte in the novel "Icon" (1996) rather in detail investigated this problem. He has come to a surprising conclusion. Before the citation, I at once shall tell, that his candidate categorically denies any pretensions for Russian Throne and I think that he absolutely sincerely does it.
____ Further I bring quotation from interview of Frederik Forsyte, published in the newspaper "News (Известия)" (on May, 23 1997г.):
____ «Somehow during the next meeting with members of the London genealogic society I have asked to them a question: to what criteria the competent successor of Russian throne should meet (satisfy)? As they said, there are three the main conditions.
___1. The first: the future monarch should be nee prince.
___2. The second: by birth he should be more than on 50 % Romanov.
___3. The third condition is the most difficult and it excludes 95 % of all nowadays known applicants: his mother should be orthodox till a marriage and till a birth of prince.
It is desirable also that the potential candidate was the former officer, not more senior than 60 years, and had the son. To all these criteria there are satisfied two brothers - descendants of George, prince of Kent, and of Marina, princess of Greece. Princess Marina was on three quarters Romanova as her father was Romanov on half, and her mother was 100% Romanova. Her husband, George, duke Kentsky, through queen Victoria was on a quarter Romanov. So these two brothers are Romanovs on 5\8. Their mother was nee princess and was Orthodoxy till a marriage.
___One of two these brothers has more than 60 years though he is the former officer also has the son. But the younger brother, Michael satisfys all necessary conditions. He is 56 years old [66 now - B.R.], he also is the former officer and he has the son too. The most improbable in all it is that he freely speaks Russian... »

So, His Royal Highness Prince Michael of Kent!

___ Frederik Forsyte has not mentioned (may be, he did not know) that just his ancestor, prince George on April, 29, 1891 has rescued the life of successor Nicholas in Japan!
___ As far as I know, Prince Michael of Kent repeatedly refused to discuss a theme of restoration of a monarchy in Russia, especially - from the participation in this fantastic prospect.

Boris

[HRH Kerry]

The mother should be Russian Orthodox but what about the "candidate"? Does Prince Michael practice catholism or is it just his wife?

[Alison20]

Prince Michael is Church of England. His wife is Catholic. Both his children were brought up Church of England. However, the Church of England is in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

[BorisRom]

Kerry,
I think, any "candidate" should accept Orthodoxy together with the wife.
On the other hand, the modern religious situation in Russia very much differs from the situation in Imperial Russia (till 1917). Till 1917 Orthodoxy was «the state religion». Now 4 traditional faiths formally are equal in Russia: Orthodoxy, Moslem, Buddhism and Judaic faith. On the other hand, till 1917 the overwhelming majority of the population were the truly faithful (believers). Now about 80 % of the population count themselves as orthodox, but only 4 % of "orthodox people" on a regular basis attend Church.
Whether it is possible to imagine a monarchy (in Russia), which is not basing on Orthodoxy or even on christianity in general? Whether it is probably to elect a Tzar without an intronaton, - without a blessing by Russian Orthodox Church?
Or, on the contrary, whether it is possible to present, that all 4 religions will bless on reign of the monarch elected by people? First there should be an election (national elections by a Zemsky cathedral, by analogy to 1612 ?) and after that there should be a blessing by all four religions.
I think, just the last variant is represented unique true. In this case an acceptance of Orthodoxy by the candidate and his wife is desirable, but not obligatory.
Probably, the majority of Russians will be satisfied by "Forsyte's three principles" and will not demand an accepting by the candidate of Orthodoxy.

Boris

[HRH Kerry]

I would think that the religion does matter. As you've stated that 80% of the population is orthodox. Religion is a very touchy subject. Even though there hasn't been a monarchy in quite sometime, I would think that not being an orthodox monarch would be asking too much of the people of Russia. To change that tradition of religion to one less popular in the country would IMO lead to political unrest. Russia has come along way so I wouldn't want to see it go backwards.

[BorisRom]

I think, the nearest four-five years will be rather complex(difficult) and heavy for the Kremlin independent of who will president of Russia. The Kremlin after 2003 has made too many critical mistakes in internal and foreign policy (in economy also). The situation for Russia will be even catastrophic if the prices for oil will go down twice (or even less, on 30-40 %). In any case, in five-six years I predict for Russia very large and cardinal changes in a state system.
Boris

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by kerry

I would think that the religion does matter. As you've stated that 80% of the population is orthodox. Religion is a very touchy subject...

Kerry,
I agree with you. However, moslems and Judaic people of Russia can do not agree with us. 20 % of the population of Russia are moslems. The religious question in Russia is certainly important, but is not the major.
In any case you are right and an acceptance of Orthodoxy by the candidate and by his wife is very desirable.
Boris

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by Alison20

Prince Michael is Church of England. His wife is Catholic. Both his children were brought up Church of England. However, the Church of England is in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Alison20,
thank you for the information.
Regards
Boris

[HRH Kerry]

Originally Posted by Alison20

Prince Michael is Church of England. His wife is Catholic. Both his children were brought up Church of England. However, the Church of England is in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Thanks, Alison20. I wasn't sure what faith Prince Michael was. I only knew that Princess Michael was Catholic.

[Jo of Palatine]

Originally Posted by BorisRom

Jo of Palatine,
You are right. This real important problem is. I don't know its decision.
___ Frederik Forsyte in the novel "Icon" (1996) rather in detail investigated this problem. He has come to a surprising conclusion.
snip

So, His Royal Highness Prince Michael of Kent!
snip


___ As far as I know, Prince Michael of Kent repeatedly refused to discuss a theme of restoration of a monarchy in Russia, especially - from the participation in this fantastic prospect.

Boris

Yes, I read Icon but of course in the book a political situation in Russia is presented that points to an avalanche of change in the system. While the bad "icon" tries to use this situation to get to power his British counterparts use this situation to establish their prince with the help of the orthodox church - I don't see this happen nowadays, there is no vaccuum of power in Russia. Si IMHO only one pretender who comes out of the system could have a chance at all.

As for prince Michael - yes, he has a son. But do you really think that Lord Freddie is the right one as heir apparent of the throne, of any throne? It would be better if a kind of Spanish situation would arise: the powerful head of state selects, educates and guides a young prince who takes over the power after his "godfather"'s demise. But I don't see Putin or a potential successor turn towards that Prussian prince - does he even speaks Russian? Or has an romantic interest in marrying a princess who is willing to give up her western chances to become an potential empress in a country like Russia?

IMHO there is noone there who might have a chance. Unfortunately. But it's a problem other ex-dynasties have as well. Just think Habsburg - who will want Karl Habsburg with his unhappy hand in political affairs as the next emperor-in-waiting? Maybe his brother Georg has a better chance in Hungary but he is the spare, not the heir...

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by Jo of Palatine

Si IMHO only one pretender who comes out of the system could have a chance at all. ...

Kremlin has constructed strategically impractical (unable-live) system of «rigid vertical of authority» and has made many mistakes for last three years. This system is loosened from within by struggle of several clans. This system («authority of security officers») can unexpectedly collapse within several months (even weeks) similarly that the authority of communists has collapsed after August, 1991.
Boris

Originally Posted by Jo of Palatine

...IMHO there is noone there who might have a chance. Unfortunately. ...

I think, you are right: there is noone there who might have a chance on Russian throne. Now. But in 5-6 years the situation can change. Unknown now pretenders can declare themselves.
Boris

[HRH Kerry]

Jo of Palatine,
I have never really familiarized myself with Lord Freddie, son of Prince Michael. He seems to be quite a character. I have to agree that he isn't heir apparent material.

Boris,
There seems to be a number of claimants to the throne. Do you think any of these have a chance if this scenario comes to fruition? Which claimant has the most support?

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by kerry

Boris, There seems to be a number of claimants to the throne. Do you think any of these have a chance if this scenario comes to fruition? Which claimant has the most support?

Kerry
As far as I know, any sociological interrogations about pretenders were not carried out. Votings on radio «Echo of Moscow» determined only preferences of their hearers concerning working foreign leaders.
As far as I know, Russian monarchic organizations have no common opinion. I am not a member of any monarchist party. I'm a writer, historian and prognosist (foreteller ). Many of my forecasts till now came true. I published the forecasts about restoration of a monarchy in Russia for 2012-2014 since 1999. Starting approximately since 2003 in Russian mass-media in increasing frequency there are articles for the benefit of the monarchy.
I think now it is very difficult to define(determine) a circle (some) of the real pretenders. In 1613 dynasty Rurickovichs was replaced by Romanov's by dynasty at will of "Greatest Zemsky cathedral (Duma)" (elected by people; analogue of the constitutional assembly). In 1613 the Romanov's sort (stock) was not a favorite among applicants from the very beginning. It is impossible to exclude that in 2012-2014 a new dynasty will be chosen. Nevertheless, I think, that pretenders from Romanov's or\and Rurickovich's will have good chances.
Besides, two-three persons in Russia name themselves the son of tsarevitch Alexey who has been ostensibly rescued on July, 17, 1918.

The monk foreteller Avel (1757-1841) wrote, that the name of the new monarch will be the third name in a history of Russia. To this prophecy can correspond :

1. Nicholas III;
2. Michael III;
3. Alexey III, - cesarevitch Alexey was lost (whether was lost?) on July, 17, 1918 several minutes after violent death of Nicholas II.
If to consider Rurickovichs also, after prince Oleg and princess Olga:
4. Oleg III

Boris