2009 Identification of the remains found in July 2007

[AGRBear]

I think I have the real deal breaker for all claimants here. Somebody emailed me this last night. It's dated in July, I don't know how we've missed it for that long. This article looks like it answers all the questions.... [ in [part]....

This report has been on my forum for some time and doesn't change anything at this time. It is old news. As AWF noted, Coble's article was released in July. Since then, some kind of information has made the Russians back track which has been revealed to us in press releases after the July press released by Coble and the National Geographic Special.

In the last release of information, the Russians are only confirming the remains found in the mass grave which means just the three grand duchesses are officially recorded as having been found in the mass grave.

From what I understand, there doesn't seem to be an issue with the male remains found in the two pits as it has been agreed that the male is the son of Nicholas II and Alexandra. AND, nothing has changed about the female found in the two pits being a sibling of Alexis, therefore a daughter of Nicholas II and Alexandra.

The latest news on 5 Dec. 2008, the officials have mentioned just three markers and nothing more is said about the fourth marker having been discovered. Maybe the Russians will explain or make such a claim in their next press release.

So, AWF, showing me Coble's article,old news, is just that, old news.

At this time, telling me which grand duchess is not all that important for me, what is important and necessary is the proof showing us not just three but four markers in their next press release.


AGRBear

 

[Anna was Franziska]

This report has been on my forum for some time and doesn't change anything at this time.

Actually it does because it gives us information we were previously unaware of. It may have been around since July, but we're just now hearing about it. This article was much more informative than the recent press releases, and it does answer the questions.

In the last release of information, the Russians are only confirming the remains found in the mass grave which means just the three grand duchesses are officially recorded as having been found in the mass grave.

Bear, nowhere do they say they have officially only recorded the three in the mass grave, where did you get that? I agree the latest Russian reports are brief, vague and incomplete, and could have been worded much better. But the reason they authenticated the remains in the mass grave was to make certain that the ones found in 2007 were really the Romanov children. They have done that. It's a shame they didn't spell that out in so many words, but that was the goal.

Remember this?
http://www.newkerala.com/topstory-fullnews-56801.html
One of the aims of the analysis was to prove the authenticity of bone fragments discovered near Yekaterinburg last year and identified as the remains of Nicholas II's son and heir, Alexis, and daughter Maria.

Since then, some kind of information has made the Russians back track which has been revealed to us in press releases after the July press released by Coble and the National Geographic Special.

Whatever gave you that idea?! They are not 'backtracking' from the results and the July announcements, or saying more testing is needed, in fact, they declare they are finished and they are closing the case!

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13346557&PageNum=0

The outcome of today's conference is historic. The matter has been brought to a close. It has been proved using advanced research methods that the remains belong to the Romanov family," he said. "There is no point in continuing any examinations because the available results are sufficient for 100% identification," Nevolin said.

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13346557&PageNum=0

In summer, 2007 different remains found there were identified as Nicholas’ son and daughter - Prince Alexei and Princess Maria. Genetic tests held at laboratories in Austria, Russia and the United States confirmed that the remains found in 1991 and 2007 belong to the family of the last Russian emperor.

At this time, telling me which grand duchess is not all that important for me, what is important and necessary is the proof showing us not just three but four markers in their next press release.

I hope they do make a more informative annoucement too, but there are four markers, as Coble told us in the article:

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=50507

the lab then looked at the nuclear DNA of the samples. Everyone gets half of their nuclear DNA from each parent. This data showed that the samples were from a male and female who shared some DNA. In fact, the data showed that it was more than 5 million times more likely they were related to each other than not, Coble said. Scientists are typically convinced of relationship with a likelihood ratio greater than 500, he said.

^^THEY HAD TO HAVE PROFILES OF THE TWO FROM THE 2007 GRAVE TO BE ABLE TO DO THIS^^

"Then, to prove that the remains were the missing siblings of the Russian royal family, the lab went back to samples from the larger gravesite and developed DNA profiles of the other siblings and parents."

Note he says OTHER SIBLINGS, meaning they already had profiles for the two found in 2007 (these profiles are shown in the National Geographic special on paper being compared to the profiles of the parents) So when they made profiles for the three girls in the mass grave, that equaled FOUR Grand Duchess profiles, since they already had one from the newly found fragments. This leaves no question at all there are four separate DNA markers, one for each girl! Even if this wasn't spelled out in so many words in recent press releases, the statements from Coble, who did the lab work, are still ample proof.

 

[AGRBear]

All they have to do is show us the four markers agreed upon by all concern.

AGRBear

 

[Anna was Franziska]

I am hoping they will be published too, but it's not going to be on the news. They don't put such things out there for laymen like us, because we wouldn't know what we were looking at, anyway. That's why they're only published in scientific journals such as Nature Genetics. If they did put them in a newspaper, would you understand their meaning and know what you were looking for? Would you ever believe it or accept it anyway? Dr. Coble has explained it to us in terms we can understand. I accept his word for it. He has told us the lab made markers for each member of the family, a total of 7. Don't you believe him? Why would he lie? Bear, for ages now, you say you've been seeking the truth, but now that you have it, you are rejecting it. I'm sorry it wasn't what you wanted to hear, but it is valid and it is reality. The entire family is now found and identified.

 

[AGRBear]

I can not reject what I haven't seen?

When the results are published, I'll be more than happy to explain it all to you.

AGRBear

 

[Menarue]

Hey Bear, don´t say that you would have liked to be present and seen it all with your own eyes....I wouldn´t not for anything.

 

[Anna was Franziska]

Here is some valuable information I would like to share. I have had personal contact with Dr. Michael Coble, and he said we can be assured that:

1. They do have FULL forensic DNA profiles for ALL seven members of the family, (including four separate Grand Duchesses) and we can finally put the issue to rest that all of the family died that night 90 years ago. (therefore all claimant stories are now proven beyond any doubt to be false)

2. Alexander III was NOT exhumed for the testing, that was a mistake by the Russian article, or relayed incorrectly in the translation. The 'father and son' mentioned were actually Nicholas and Alexei, not Nicholas and Alexander III as the one article implied. They did indeed test Nicholas's cousin, Andre Romanov, and his Y chromosome also matched Nicholas and Alexei perfectly.

3. The Russians have obtained a full nuclear STR pattern on the bloodstain in the Otsu shirt, and it does match the Nicholas skeleton profile.

4. It is true that we have astronomical evidence in the case. This puts an end to all speculation. Also, the argument that "It's some other family" is no longer viable.


5. He is in the process of writing the final report and scientific publication and should have something in the press soon. All results will soon be published in a scientific journal, and afterward will be posted here by Dr. Coble himself.

This is exciting news. I thank Dr. Michael Coble for his help and this information. You can all look forward to the upcoming publications.

 

[J Kendrick]

Here is some valuable information I would like to share. I have had personal contact with Dr. Michael Coble, and he said we can be assured that:

1. They do have FULL forensic DNA profiles for ALL seven members of the family, (including four separate Grand Duchesses) and we can finally put the issue to rest that all of the family died that night 90 years ago. (therefore all claimant stories are now proven beyond any doubt to be false)

Did Dr. Coble also happen to explain exactly why the Russian investigators are now known to have reason to suspect... and why they are now known to be searching for... a *third* possible burial pit... what Nikolai Nevolin has now described as: "... another small burial site, a hole with the same amount of bones... "?

... and ...

Did he also happen to say whether or not the DNA researchers have actually yet managed to find any genetic evidence at all of that long-suspected faculty Factor VIII gene?

JK

 

[Michael HR]

Whilst confirming the gene would be interesting it actually makes little difference as Alexis is confirmed as being there with one of the Sisters and seems all are accounted for across the two pits. I have argued for some time that they should simply publish all the markers thus showing the exsistance of the IF in total so that we can now lay this sad subject to bed and move on at last.

 

[Anna was Franziska]

As was posted earlier, in Nevolin's latest statement he now declares no more testing is necessary:

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....6557&PageNum=0

The outcome of today's conference is historic. The matter has been brought to a close. It has been proved using advanced research methods that the remains belong to the Romanov family," he said. "There is no point in continuing any examinations because the available results are sufficient for 100% identification," Nevolin said.

There must be a lot of things they could test for now that we have the technology, but they aren't because those things aren't needed, only wanted by some. (how would you like to find out if Paul was the biological son of Peter III, or Catherine's lover?) I do not know if they have already tested for the gene, were unable to due to deterioration of the specimens, or found it unnecessary (and maybe not cost effective) We will have to ask Dr. Coble.

Happy New Year to all!

 

[Warren]

The subject of Queen Victoria and haemophilia (including recent books on the subject) is discussed extensively in an existing thread in the British Royal History subforum: Queen Victoria and Haemophilia. Posts relating to Queen Victoria, her parents and her family have been moved and/or copied over to that thread.

Posts relating to Alexei have been moved to the new Alexei and Haemophilia thread which can be found in the main Russian Forum.

The "New Information on Two Pits" thread is reserved for new information only.
Speculative posts, rhetorical questions, questioning of the scientists' motives and issues that don't relate to new information will be removed at the discretion of the moderators.

Warren
Administrator

 

[AGRBear]

Here is some valuable information I would like to share. I have had personal contact with Dr. Michael Coble, and he said we can be assured that:

1. They do have FULL forensic DNA profiles for ALL seven members of the family.. [ in part].....

AWF.

Did you speak with him on the phone, contact him by mail or did you meet with him?

AGRBear

 

[Anna was Franziska]

Bear, I spoke to him online. Yes, I'm sure it's him. Yes, he has read this forum.

 

[AGRBear]

I hope he finds the time to post here after the official annoucement.

AGRBear

 

[J Kendrick]

Bear, I spoke to him online. Yes, I'm sure it's him. Yes, he has read this forum.

If what you have now claimed here is true...

If any of those same research scientists has been reading these boards, then there must be something that is being said or discussed here about their latest reported test results that is attracting their attention.

There would be no reason for any of those investigating scientists -- including Dr. Coble -- to be even the slightest bit interested in what is now being said about their most recent research on any of the Romanov discussion boards... if they were entirely confident in their results.

JK

 

[Anna was Franziska]

If I were a scientist I'd want to know what was being said about me and my work. If I saw people doubting my word and work, and leaving the impression they believed something was crooked, I would not be pleased. I think it's terrible that these scientists get abused by the accusations and insinuations of those who refuse to accept the reality that the entire Romanov family died in 1918. If there's anything strange going on, it's by those who would stop at nothing to keep their pet theories alive at all costs, even damaging the reputations of those who do the work on the DNA. How many times has Martha Jefferson Hospital been questioned, and all of the scientists involved in all the testing and even those who handle and transport the samples? This is very sad and very wrong to cast doubt on all these people just because their results turned out to be something you didn't want to hear.

I can't even see the purpose of any new conspiracy theories. There is no reason anyone would lie or want to conceal that the children got away, if they had, it would be a very interesting story but they did not and history deserves the truth.

 

[J Kendrick]

If I were a scientist I'd want to know what was being said about me and my work. If I saw people doubting my word and work, and leaving the impression they believed something was crooked, I would not be pleased.

It is not about doubting the work.

It is all about the fact that the work is still incomplete.

... and it will *not* be complete until the time finally comes when they have fully explained why they have now found reason to suspect the existence of a third possible burial pit -- for which there is no previously known evidence whatsoever -- and when they have finally confirmed -- with solid scientific evidence to support it -- whether or not the long suspected faulty factor VIII gene actually does... or does not... exist in the DNA of either Alexandra or her son.

JK

 

[Elspeth]

If what you have now claimed here is true...

If any of those same research scientists has been reading these boards, then there must be something that is being said or discussed here about their latest reported test results that is attracting their attention.

There would be no reason for any of those investigating scientists -- including Dr. Coble -- to be even the slightest bit interested in what is now being said about their most recent research on any of the Romanov discussion boards... if they were entirely confident in their results.

JK

Sure there would. There have been people on this forum casting doubt on the professional and personal integrity of Drs Gill, Stoneking, and Melton for a long time, often based on nothing more than their desire to see these scientists be wrong in what they've published. These sorts of slurs travel pretty fast around the internet regardless of whether there's any truth to them. And even when generated by an alias on a message board, libel is libel. I've seen the same thing happen in creationism-evolution discussions, with creationists often saying that the sheer fact that scientists are concerned about what creationists say about them (you know the sort of thing, that they're deliberately lying about their results in order to undermine Christianity, that they don't know their own field of study well enough to understand what they're doing, that they're conspiring with each other to lie to the government in order to get funds to carry on their fraudulent work and yada yada yada) means that there's truth to the creationist allegations. Well, it turns out that there isn't. It's just ideology and wishful thinking and a pernicious attitude that the end justifies the means.

 

[J Kendrick]

Sure there would. There have been people on this forum casting doubt on the professional and personal integrity of Drs Gill, Stoneking, and Melton for a long time, often based on nothing more than their desire to see these scientists be wrong in what they've published.

I say again...

It is not about doubting the work.

It is all about the fact that the work is still incomplete.

See Post# 197: http://www.theroyalforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=877340&postcount=197

JK

 

[Anna was Franziska]

JK, it is NOT incomplete. Whatever you heard of a 'third burial pit' was obviously an error. In the most recent press release the Russians have stated they are finished and no more investigation is needed:

Interfax-Religion

"There is no point in continuing any examinations because the available results are sufficient for 100% identification," Nevolin said.


This means they are finished with the investigation. There will be no more digging or testing. The article goes onto say the case is to be closed on Jan. 15, and that is next week. We should hear something then.

Apparently, this third burial pit now lives only in your dreams. Do a search for it online, the only thing that comes up is your post on the subject!

About the faulty gene, Dr. Coble has already explained why testing for the gene was not done:

(From his response)

I was asked by the Russians to look into the
possibility of testing for the gene, but in the end, we found this to be
too challenging for several reasons...

We had limited material to work with - only a couple of grams of
bone powder...

..The factor VIII gene is quite large with 26 exons - this would
require a great deal of sequencing of nuclear DNA, and likely consume
the entire sample. Note that we did have samples from the Tsarina -
however, these were in less quantity that the samples from Grave 2 since
those remains are now at rest in St. Petersburg.

Finally, we decided to focus on what we do best: recovering forensic
loci. We felt that if we could develop a complete (or near complete)
profile from the evidence, then the statistics would provide us with a
powerful amount of discrimination. Going from a Likelihood Ratio in the
trillions to a number in the quad- or quintrillions (by trying to find
the Hemophilia gene) seemed like a lot of effort to go from one big
number to another big number - while consuming all of the evidence along
the way.

So you see here in his own words, they couldn't do the test because there wasn't enough specimen to work with and it would have used up the whole sample they needed for the DNA tests.

So we won't know if he had the gene, just as we won't know if it was Anastasia or Maria who was missing. But the end result is, everyone was proven to have died that night, the entire family is now accounted for, regardless of what disease they had or where they were buried. THAT is an end to the story, a mystery solved, and all claimants are now proven to have been false. This is a major historical and scientific event, and that, and all who helped achieve it, should be appreciated.

Dr. Coble is working on the paper for the scientific journal now, and it'll be ready next week! Hopefully, his results being published and the Russians closing the case will finally put an official end to this tragic story.

 

[J Kendrick]

Whatever you heard of a 'third burial pit' was obviously an error.

The direct quote from Nikolai Nevolin, head of forensics for the Sverdlovsk Region, as reported by RIA Novosti: "When the second burial was found, it turned out that the overall weight of fragments was not enough for two people ...another small burial site, a hole with the same amount of bones could exist on the territory." Nevolin then said further that: "...tests would continue in the case of a new discovery."

That same continuing search for "another small burial site" has yet to be completed.

See: RIA Novosti - Russia - Experts suggest another Russian tsar family burial site exists

 

[Anna was Franziska]

I knew it was from a Russian news story, but as I said, the story is no longer valid. That story is dated April 8, 2008, and on Dec. 8, 2008, Nevolin declared the investigation finished, no more info needed, and the case is to be closed next week (Jan. 15, 2009)

Interfax-Religion

"The outcome of today's conference is historic. The matter has been brought to a close. It has been proved using advanced research methods that the remains belong to the Romanov family," he said.

"There is no point in continuing any examinations because the available results are sufficient for 100% identification," Nevolin said.

That is Nevolin's most recent statement, which therefore trumps the older one. It is apparent they feel they are finished with the matter.

As for the 'not enough for two people' statement, that could have been taken out of context, mistranslated, or perhaps they have since discovered through the forensic testing that that his idea of another burial pit was incorrect (note that in the April article he stated 'COULD exist', not that there was any proof or reason to believe this other than a guess) and there is no need to look anymore. He may have said in April 'tests would continue in case of a new discovery', but that is now a mute point since there was no 'new discovery'. They have publically stated no more testing is needed and they are closing the case! It is a shame that some comments are taken in ways never intended when used in grasping at straws desperation by those who refuse to give up belief in claimants.

I never thought there was anything strange about the small amount of fragments found in 2007, in fact, I was surprised they were able to find anything at all. It makes perfect sense that in 90 years of being in an acidic, soggy bog that whatever charred bones were originally put there would naturally deteriorate, dissolve and otherwise decompose. They were actually fortunate to recover as much as they did, and extract enough DNA from it to do the testing.

This leaves your 'third pit' story as overruled, pointless and now invalid. The lastest statements by Nevolin make it very clear, "the matter has been brought to a close", they have their historic conclusions, and it's over.

 

[J Kendrick]

I knew it was from a Russian news story, but as I said, the story is no longer valid. That story is dated April 8, 2008,

European dating... day, month, year.

The story is dated the fourth of September, 2008. Your views do not change the facts of Nevolin's statement, which still remain unexplained.

"The overall weight of fragments was not enough for two people ...another small burial site, a hole with the same amount of bones could exist on the territory."

 

[Anna was Franziska]

April or September both predate December. As I tried to explain, clearly, obviously, nothing came of the 'third pit' theory/idea. The story even said 'could' exist, there was never anything definite or official about it. The easy answer is, there was nothing to it and the idea was abandoned and forgotten. Nevolin's last statement lets us know he is now satisfied with the way things have gone and believes no more work is necessary. What part of '"the matter has been brought to a close" do you not understand? He has stated they have all the information they need, no more investigating or testing will be done. That is Nevolin's final word. It's over.

 

[AGRBear]

As much as AWF would like all of us to go away and never ask another question, some of us still have many questions. The missing bones from the mass grave as well as the two pits found July 07 have not been explained. Burning and sulfuric acid could not have been the reason, if we are to believe the eye witnesses as reported to us through the years. The American forensic scientists Dr. Maples and the one recently used and was shown in the National Geographic Special agree.

If indeed the scientists have managed to provide us with four DNA/mtDNA markers for four grand duchesses, there will remain questions, one being the problem with the missing bones from all the graves.

Since the official report hasn't been presented, we still don't know what will be said and what data the Russians will provide us. So, it's not a closed case for all concern. Will all of us be satisfied when the official annoucement occurs? I honestly do not know and cannot know until then.

AGRBear

 

[AnastasiaEvidence]

If indeed the scientists have managed to provide us with four DNA/mtDNA markers for four grand duchesses, there will remain questions, one being the problem with the missing bones from all the graves.

Since the official report hasn't been presented, we still don't know what will be said and what data the Russians will provide us. So, it's not a closed case for all concern. Will all of us be satisfied when the official annoucement occurs? I honestly do not know and cannot know until then.

There is enough information that has already been proven and confirms that those are indeed the remains of Alexei. All the remains have been identified as those of the whole Imperial family. The scientists already explained many things to us about the bones. AWF, already gave out the proof that proves those remains are of the imperial family. She also gave out the name of the scientists that are doing the testings. There are many questions asked, because they are mainly from the people who still want to find some reason to deny the DNA tests, and continue with the survival stories and theories.
Many do continue to deny the DNA tests and make up reasons for the bones not being that of the imperial family. People said that those can be bones of some other unknown people.

 

[Warren]

Posts dealing with the thwarted criminal investigation into the murder of the Imperial Family have been moved to the Nicholas and Alexandra thread.
Posts discussing the stance of Grand Duchess Maria and the Orthodox Church have been moved to the Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna thread.

 

[J Kendrick]

New Information published this week... Please see:

Researchers publish DNA identification of czar's children
http://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing...mains-russian-royals-killed-during-revolution
DNA analysis confirms Russian czar's entire family was murdered in 1918

But this still does not tell us why they are now searching for yet "another small hole with a similar amount of bones" ... whether or not they have yet found any genetic evidence at all of a suspected blood disorder... or why they are now said to be planning yet another conference meeting in March.

JK

 

[Anna was Franziska]

New Information published this week... Please see:

Researchers publish DNA identification of czar's children
DNA Tests Confirm Remains of Russian Royals Killed During Revolution | GenomeWeb Daily News | Sequencing | GenomeWeb
DNA analysis confirms Russian czar's entire family was murdered in 1918

Thank you!

But this still does not tell us why they are now searching for yet "another small hole with a similar amount of bones" ...

That was only one article several months ago.I don't believe it's an issue, or that anyone is going to do this. The officials have now stated no more investigation is needed.

whether or not they have yet found any genetic evidence at all of a suspected blood disorder...

We know that they haven't, because they have already told us that they did not have enough usable sample to test for both DNA and the disease, so they had to choose the DNA, of course.

or why they are now said to be planning yet another conference meeting in March.

JK

Perhaps they are waiting until all of the scientists' results are published so they can have one final conference on all the published results, and put an end to the whole thing at once.

 

[Warren]

As the subject of Alexei and haemophilia has its own thread, posts continuing the argument here have been removed.