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  #1141  
Old 07-27-2019, 02:27 AM
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Order of Imperial succession not likely to change - The Japan News
Quote:
[...]

The government believes that if discussions on the issue of a female emperor or a female-line emperor lead to a review of the order of succession, the Imperial system could be shaken.

The government will set up a panel of experts in the autumn to discuss the issue.

[...]

According to government sources, discussions on the stable succession of the Imperial throne will proceed in two stages. First, the panel will make clear that the three male-line male members will succeed to the throne according to the current order of succession. Then the panel will discuss specific measures for stable succession and measures to maintain the number of Imperial family members.
Urg Why even have the first "discussion"? It's not truly a discussion anyway. Just skip to the second.

Averting a Crisis: How to Preserve Japan's Imperial System of Male Lineage | JAPAN Forward
Quote:
[...]

Preventing Extinction of the Imperial Line

One ray of hope lies in the possible restoration of former imperial branch families that were divested of their imperial status on orders from the general headquarters of the occupation forces after the end of World War II. There are males with the imperial Y chromosome among the members of those branch families.

[...]

At a minimum, the return of branch family males with the imperial Y chromosome should be facilitated to allow continuation of the imperial line. This should happen even if it is practically difficult to return former branch families to imperial status en masse.

[...]
Many of the ex-Imperial branches are already extinct or at risk of extinction. The ex-branches that are currently safe could face the same "no male heir" problem anyway.
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  #1142  
Old 07-27-2019, 03:33 AM
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That is if they even wish to be restored to "imperial status". And how about the public, will they accept someone who is suddenly coming in from the cold as the next heir?
That I think is more eroding for the Imperial Family and their status than the - heaven help us - a female heir!

It's a desperate rearguard action by the ultra-conservatives. Sometimes their fear for women, because that's what it is, is downright comical.
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  #1143  
Old 07-27-2019, 03:38 AM
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This is all just theoretic, as Mr Abe secured a new term as Prime Minister last week, being victorious once again in the General Elections.
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  #1144  
Old 07-27-2019, 04:38 AM
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Imperial succession is not high priority for the people. Over 50% didn't even vote.

More than 50% of voters abstain from voting in Upper House poll: The Asahi Shimbun
Quote:
[...]

“Even if I vote, nothing will change,” said Hikasa, 47, who was walking near Shinbashi Station in Tokyo's Minato Ward.

[...]

Turnout was the second lowest of Japan’s postwar Upper House elections, 48.8 percent, meaning more than half of voters did not go to the polls.

[...]

A 52-year-old company employee who lives in Funabashi, Chiba Prefecture, said he was worried about Japan's falling population and whether the county's pension system will be able to support him when he retires.

But despite expressing displeasure with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration, he wasn't moved to vote for an opposition party or cast a ballot at all.

[...]

A 66-year-old unemployed resident of Kamakura, Kanagawa Prefecture, said he saw no reason to vote.

“The election was only conducted because it was time to hold one," he said. "I can't figure out what it was for."

[...]
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  #1145  
Old 07-27-2019, 04:57 AM
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Pretty worrying. If people stop voting or even caring, only the extremists will benefit.
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  #1146  
Old 07-27-2019, 05:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Prisma View Post
Imperial succession is not high priority for the people. Over 50% didn't even vote.

More than 50% of voters abstain from voting in Upper House poll: The Asahi Shimbun
Thank your making this essential point. A number of people in the West seem to have made the wrong assumption that the majority of Japanese people view male-only succession as important because of the ubiquity of elected officials with those views. As a matter of fact, most voters would accept female succession but cannot be expected to prioritize it over the economy, stable government, etc.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Prisma View Post
Order of Imperial succession not likely to change - The Japan News

Urg Why even have the first "discussion"? It's not truly a discussion anyway. Just skip to the second.

Averting a Crisis: How to Preserve Japan's Imperial System of Male Lineage | JAPAN Forward

Many of the ex-Imperial branches are already extinct or at risk of extinction. The ex-branches that are currently safe could face the same "no male heir" problem anyway.
I agree with you on both counts. The true "ray of hope" for the ultra-traditionalists lies in the invention of fertility treatments and sex selection methods, and in pressuring male heirs and their wives to utilize them if required for the sake of maintaining the male line.



Thank you for posting the Japan Forward article, which states the feelings and position of the ultratraditionalists very well.

Quote:
Why were there so many female emperors in those times?

According to one theory, it had something to do with the fact that the blood lines of many powerful clans, such as Soga and Fujiwara, had flown into the imperial family. Because of power struggles among the influential clans, a decision couldn’t be reached on who should be the next-generation emperor in the male line. Female emperors therefore emerged in the capacity of relay successors, reigning until the next male emperor could be chosen, or so the theory goes.

In addition, there were cases in those days in which an emperor succumbed at a young age. In some such cases a female emperor served as a relay successor when the crown prince — the next in line to the imperial throne — was a child, or a suitable successor could not be identified immediately.
It is interesting that the two sides of the succession issue have such disparate theories on the factors in choosing female emperors during the sixth and seventh centuries. Read an alternative opinion here:

http://www.theroyalforums.com/forums...ml#post1905377


Quote:
Noteworthy in this connection is the hard fact that, although there did exist female emperors, there never existed even a single emperor who descended from the female imperial line.

While there were cases in which females ascended the throne as relay successors, the imperial lineage has been inherited through the male line on a continuous basis. There was no instance of the sex chromosome of Y — which is passed on from the father only to his sons — having been discontinued or altered to another chromosome.
That is right, of course, but it is also noteworthy all of the female emperors who had issue passed on the throne to their children or grandchildren, the imperial Y chromosome being maintained in the sons as their parents were closely related.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair View Post
This is all just theoretic, as Mr Abe secured a new term as Prime Minister last week, being victorious once again in the General Elections.
Mr. Abe theoretically approves of changing the succession law to restore ex-imperial branches, but he is probably too pragmatic to attempt a divisive change.

He secured his third term last autumn with his victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election. Last week's elections concerned seats in the Upper House only, and there was no prospect of the LDP losing its majority there. The question is whether there will be another change in LDP party rules before 2021 to allow him a fourth term.
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  #1147  
Old 07-30-2019, 08:18 AM
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https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...8#.XUA1JugzYuW

Panel planned to discuss shrinking royal family, possible female emperor
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  #1148  
Old 07-30-2019, 08:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke of Marmalade View Post
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...8#.XUA1JugzYuW

Panel planned to discuss shrinking royal family, possible female emperor



Couldn't semi-Salic succession be a pragmatic first step before introducing full male-preference cognatic primogeniture ?
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  #1149  
Old 07-31-2019, 08:52 AM
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Imo, it would be a start to allow married princesses to remain members of the Imperial House, and to continue their work as Imperial Princesses. The decision, if they or their children should be in the line of succession or not, could be easily delayed, according to whether Hisahito will have sons or not. But right now, it must be ensured that the young princesses can get married and have a family of their own, while at the same time they will be there to support Hisahito when his time comes to take over the throne. He will need a few family members of his own generation to share the burden of his position. Right now, it looks like his sisters can't get married, because the Imperial House needs them in their workforce. Now, imho, that's really tough on them.
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  #1150  
Old 08-07-2019, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
That is if they even wish to be restored to "imperial status". And how about the public, will they accept someone who is suddenly coming in from the cold as the next heir?
That I think is more eroding for the Imperial Family and their status than the - heaven help us - a female heir!
As I see it, the heir would be expected to take on princely duties, and get known by the people, before he could take the throne. I don't believe that he would go frim being a private citizen one day, to be an emperor the next day.

Quote:
It's a desperate rearguard action by the ultra-conservatives. Sometimes their fear for women, because that's what it is, is downright comical.
Why would they fear women? It is only that some people in Japan are very traditional, so they will find the male-only succession important.
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  #1151  
Old 08-07-2019, 05:26 PM
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Well, they are only a tragedy away from ending up in that situation. So there may not even be time for the public to get acquainted with a completely new heir.

I believe the efforts of ultra-conservatives to curb women, not only in Japan but worldwide, is deep down based in a fear of being "usurped" by women.

To paraphrase a quote from Mississippi Burning: "If you ain't more than a woman, then what are you?"
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  #1152  
Old 08-12-2019, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
Well, they are only a tragedy away from ending up in that situation. So there may not even be time for the public to get acquainted with a completely new heir.
I agree. They must find a third heir soon, just to make sure that an heir exists and has the right training and public support.

Quote:
I believe the efforts of ultra-conservatives to curb women, not only in Japan but worldwide, is deep down based in a fear of being "usurped" by women.
Well, I'm a bit more optimistic than that.
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  #1153  
Old 08-12-2019, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
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I agree. They must find a third heir soon, just to make sure that an heir exists and has the right training and public support.


Well, I'm a bit more optimistic than that.
There isn't a third heir to find according to the current rules, and there won't be one unless Hisahito grows up, finds a woman who is willing to put up with a highly restricted life governed by the IHA, and starts popping out male heirs. I have my doubts about both of those last two points considering both Michiko and Masako's experiences within the Imperial family.

And there's not much doubt that in Japan at least, there is a definite level of discomfort among certain sectors of the population with the increasing level of autonomy women have acquired by working outside the home, so I think Muhler has a point.
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  #1154  
Old 08-17-2019, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Ista View Post
There isn't a third heir to find according to the current rules, and there won't be one unless Hisahito grows up, finds a woman who is willing to put up with a highly restricted life governed by the IHA, and starts popping out male heirs. I have my doubts about both of those last two points considering both Michiko and Masako's experiences within the Imperial family.

And there's not much doubt that in Japan at least, there is a definite level of discomfort among certain sectors of the population with the increasing level of autonomy women have acquired by working outside the home, so I think Muhler has a point.
I know, and what I meant was that the rules must be changed. They have to put the princesses in the line of succession, or introduce a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir.
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  #1155  
Old 08-17-2019, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Furienna View Post
I know, and what I meant was that the rules must be changed. They have to put the princesses in the line of succession, or introduce a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir.
There's no use to find a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir because if there is (using the current succession laws) they would have found one.

It's either they consider married princesses as a legit household and allow women in the succession or they put back the Kazoku.
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  #1156  
Old 08-17-2019, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Furienna View Post
I know, and what I meant was that the rules must be changed. They have to put the princesses in the line of succession, or introduce a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir.
That is the main reason why the rules have not been changed: There is no universal consensus among voters or political leaders on which change should be adopted, and so the safest course for any politician is to remain passive and offend nobody.

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Originally Posted by theroyalfly View Post
There's no use to find a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir because if there is (using the current succession laws) they would have found one.

It's either they consider married princesses as a legit household and allow women in the succession or they put back the Kazoku.
Furienna is proposing to change the current laws, which would also be necessary if married princesses were to be allowed to form imperial households or be in the line of succession. The nobility (Kazoku) did not have a place in the imperial succession, and its restoration hasn't been considered.
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  #1157  
Old 08-17-2019, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
Furienna is proposing to change the current succession laws, which would also be necessary if married princesses were to be allowed to form imperial households or be in the line of succession. The nobility (Kazoku) did not have a place in the imperial succession, and its restoration hasn't been considered.
Considering married princesses' to form imperial households or to be in line of succession is the most plausible answer.

I did not say the Kazoku was in line of imperial succession but some of these families lineage are from the imperial line of Emperors and Imperial Princes. Just an option.
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  #1158  
Old 08-17-2019, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by theroyalfly View Post
Considering married princesses' to form imperial households or to be in line of succession is the most plausible answer.

I did not say the Kazoku was in line of imperial succession but some of these families lineage are from the imperial line of Emperors and Imperial Princes. Just an option.
I see your meaning now. For whatever reason, when the option is raised in Japan, the proposal always relates to families from the lines which remained royal until 1947. I suppose they believe the public would be more welcoming to someone with a fairly recent imperial lineage.

On a side note, I have edited my post as changes to the law would be necessary even to allow princesses to form households without being in the line of succession.
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  #1159  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:11 AM
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Urg... I'm all happy about the enthronement and then I see THIS article (published on October 23)

Japan lawmakers eye restoration of ex-imperial members for succession - Kyodo News
Quote:
A conservative group within Japan's major ruling party on Wednesday finalized proposals to allow men from now-abolished collateral branches of the imperial family to rejoin it, as part of measures to ensure stable succession.

The proposals, to be submitted to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, were crafted as the number of successors to the Chrysanthemum Throne continues to dwindle.

[...]

To sustain the imperial family, the group within the Liberal Democratic Party came up with ideas such as having unmarried male members of the former branches join the imperial family through adoption or marriage, if they want to. The group has suggested the creation of a law to enable this as an emergency measure, instead of revising the Imperial House Law.

[...]
Well, who wants to return? How will this "potential successor" be vetted? What's the adoption process? Who exactly adopts him? Naruhito? Akishino? The IHA as a group?

If by marriage... well, forced marriage is against the law. Which princess is he willing to marry or vice versa?

If no one wants to return, then the National Diet wasted everyone's time and effort because the succession issue continues...

ETA: Or maybe the conservatives have found a willing candidate and the "if" doesn't mean anything?
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  #1160  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:34 AM
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An act of desperation.

And even if they have found someone, how about the public opinion?
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