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  #1121  
Old 04-26-2019, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
Hmm, that smells like another poor excuse for keeping women away from the throne.

But that problem has been addressed in other monarchies in various ways, so why not in Japan?
After all most monarchies today have only three or four active couples, the rest are left to create their own careers.

I see your point about allowing royals to have private careers, but the necessity of being apolitical and commercially neutral is more urgent in Japan in comparison to other monarchies. And even in comparable monarchies in Europe, where the public is more tolerant of royals' gaffes, the commercial interests of various royals generate headlines on a frequent basis, and not always positive ones.

All in all, I consider the Japanese monarchy to be appropriately cautious by requiring family members to choose between being completely in the Imperial Family or completely out of it.

But the problem of too many branches would be easy to manage with the secession system, which is already set down in the Imperial House Law even if it hasn't needed to be used since 1947.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Prisma View Post
Possible reasons for the disconnect between higher support for female emperor and lower support for female-led branches:
- More imperial branches is daunting. The survey didn't specify who could stay or how many generations. Financially supporting all the male and female-led imperial branches and later their children's branches (no matter how distant from the current emperor) gets expensive.

- Influence of Japan's strict gender roles. Wives join the husband's family registry after marriage. Adult adoption typically happens when a family lacks an suitable heir so a son-in-law joins his wife's family registry.

- Maybe those surveyed are OK with direct inheritance but prefer limitations on branches for siblings or relatives which the survey didn't specify. Outside of princesses leaving the family on marriage, no one has ceded from the Imperial family. The late Prince Tomohito of Mikasa wanted to leave but couldn't.

Japan to consider Imperial succession issue after November: Suga - The Mainichi
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
As for gender roles. Well if you marry an active royal, you marry into the royal family, rather than the other way around. - Another poor excuse IMO.

What would they do if there was only Princess Aiko? Sorry, you marry into your husbands family and as such you have to abdicate, and whoops now we have no empress and no monarchy...
Come on!
That is what I am curious to know. The possible explanation Prisma provided (they would prefer to consider a reigning empress a special exception while other princesses must comply with gender roles, but the option was not available in the survey) is very plausible, but I wonder if there are individuals who would prefer an Empress Aiko to remain single or to abdicate when she marries.
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  #1122  
Old 04-26-2019, 04:55 PM
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The question of being politically neutral also applies in other monarchies.

Surplus royals quietly fade out - some even during their own lifetime. See Madeleine in Sweden or perhaps Joachim in Denmark.
Other opt out, like Märtha in Norway.

What I see is a lot of excuses for not doing anything new.

As for Aiko. We have established earlier in this thread that some conservatives are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to prevent a woman on the throne. Even adopting a male child from a remote branch of the family would IMO be acceptable to some, rather than a female emperor! - Never mind the human aspects.
Cloning would probably also be acceptable for that matter...

The problem is that at present there is only a tragedy, a mental illness, a low sperm count, a "dynastically speaking undesired sexual preference" or a scandal between Aiko and the throne.
Japan is running out of young heirs.

And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand, other surveys have shown that the Japanese public are much more open for a female empress.
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  #1123  
Old 04-26-2019, 05:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
The question of being politically neutral also applies in other monarchies.

Surplus royals quietly fade out - some even during their own lifetime. See Madeleine in Sweden or perhaps Joachim in Denmark.
Other opt out, like Märtha in Norway.
Yes, but before fading out they generate headlines and critical commentary with their and their spouses' business ventures, and even some European monarchies seem to be taking steps toward restricting royal status to those who will play a role in the monarchy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
What I see is a lot of excuses for not doing anything new.
Are you referring to the enthronement? That is the only excuse I can perceive in the government's statement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
As for Aiko. We have established earlier in this thread that some conservatives are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to prevent a woman on the throne. Even adopting a male child from a remote branch of the family would IMO be acceptable to some, rather than a female emperor! - Never mind the human aspects.
Cloning would probably also be acceptable for that matter...

The problem is that at present there is only a tragedy, a mental illness, a low sperm count, a "dynastically speaking undesired sexual preference" or a scandal between Aiko and the throne.
Japan is running out of young heirs.

And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand, other surveys have shown that the Japanese public are much more open for a female empress.
I don't think the nationalist conservatives are burying their heads in the sand at all. It is precisely because they recognize that a tragedy, low sperm count, etc. is a possibility that they are attempting to postpone the discussions indefinitely. Discussions might bring about a female-led branch, which might have the consequence of a sonless Emperor Hisahito being succeeded by his daughter, female cousin, or female-line nephew/niece instead of by a male child from a remote patrilineal branch of the family.
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  #1124  
Old 04-27-2019, 01:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
Yes, but before fading out they generate headlines and critical commentary with their and their spouses' business ventures, and even some European monarchies seem to be taking steps toward restricting royal status to those who will play a role in the monarchy.
Otherwise they would generate headlines and critical commentary for being idle and costing taxpayer money...
Just look at a number of the British royals.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
Are you referring to the enthronement? That is the only excuse I can perceive in the government's statement.
I refer to the very serious question of Japan running out of official heirs.
A question that could be solved by accepting female heirs.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
I don't think the nationalist conservatives are burying their heads in the sand at all. It is precisely because they recognize that a tragedy, low sperm count, etc. is a possibility that they are attempting to postpone the discussions indefinitely. Discussions might bring about a female-led branch, which might have the consequence of a sonless Emperor Hisahito being succeeded by his daughter, female cousin, or female-line nephew/niece instead of by a male child from a remote patrilineal branch of the family.
Well, if you believe that then I've got an Eiffel Tower for sale.
The national-conservatives don't strike me as people who are particularly concerned with the sensibilities of the Imperial Family. On the contrary in fact.
There is a global tendency among ultra-conservatives to be scared witless of females in prominent positions. I don't really understand why and it's usually excused by traditional and/or religious reasons - ergo it should not be done...
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  #1125  
Old 04-27-2019, 02:22 AM
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Who is in line for the throne of Japan if the young Hisahito were to have no children and assuming his father and uncle predecease him?
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  #1126  
Old 04-27-2019, 03:02 AM
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No one. Well, Prince Hitachi is next in line but he's 83 and not likely to succeed

1. Naruhito
2. Fumihito (Prince Akishino)
3. Hisahito
4. Masahito (Prince Hitachi, Emperor Akihito's brother)

Not succession related but a recent Poll finds low expectations for Abe, but don't want change: The Asahi Shimbun
Quote:
Even though a majority of respondents in a survey hold low expectations for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they prefer stability over an upheaval in the political landscape.

[...]

A combined 41 percent of respondents said they held "high" or "somewhat high" expectations for Abe, while 57 percent said they held "low" or "somewhat low" expectations.

Among respondents who said they had no political party affiliation, a combined 76 percent said they had low expectations for Abe.

But that did not translate into a desire for change in the political world.

When asked what they preferred in politics, 60 percent of respondents said "stability," while only 34 percent chose "change."

Even among respondents who said they held low expectations for Abe, 51 percent preferred stability over the 43 percent who wanted change.

[...]

When asked to what extent they trusted what Abe said, a combined 60 percent said they had "no" or "very little" trust. Among those with no party affiliation, 79 percent said they didn't trust what Abe said.

The respondents were generally cautious about the extended period during which the LDP has dominated both chambers of the Diet, with 80 percent of respondents saying the situation was not good.

At the same time, the respondents did not want to see repeated changes in government, with only 40 percent saying they welcomed such a development, and 53 percent saying otherwise.

[...]

Questionnaires were mailed from early March and collected until mid-April. Valid responses were obtained from 2,043 voters.

The poll also showed that respondents who mainly get their news through the Internet or social networking services tended to be more right-leaning.

[...]
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  #1127  
Old 04-27-2019, 07:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prisma View Post
Not succession related but a recent Poll finds low expectations for Abe, but don't want change: The Asahi Shimbun

Quote:
Even though a majority of respondents in a survey hold low expectations for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they prefer stability over an upheaval in the political landscape.

[...]

A combined 41 percent of respondents said they held "high" or "somewhat high" expectations for Abe, while 57 percent said they held "low" or "somewhat low" expectations.

Among respondents who said they had no political party affiliation, a combined 76 percent said they had low expectations for Abe.

But that did not translate into a desire for change in the political world.

When asked what they preferred in politics, 60 percent of respondents said "stability," while only 34 percent chose "change."

Even among respondents who said they held low expectations for Abe, 51 percent preferred stability over the 43 percent who wanted change.

[...]

When asked to what extent they trusted what Abe said, a combined 60 percent said they had "no" or "very little" trust. Among those with no party affiliation, 79 percent said they didn't trust what Abe said.

The respondents were generally cautious about the extended period during which the LDP has dominated both chambers of the Diet, with 80 percent of respondents saying the situation was not good.

At the same time, the respondents did not want to see repeated changes in government, with only 40 percent saying they welcomed such a development, and 53 percent saying otherwise.

[...]

Questionnaires were mailed from early March and collected until mid-April. Valid responses were obtained from 2,043 voters.

The poll also showed that respondents who mainly get their news through the Internet or social networking services tended to be more right-leaning.

[...]

Thank you for posting this, Prisma. I think it is a helpful addition to this discussion, as it elucidates the mental process of the public and politicians who largely give passive verbal support to female branches/empresses but have made the choice (which is fully understandable within the context of Japanese politics) not to take affirmative steps in pursuit of that change.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
Otherwise they would generate headlines and critical commentary for being idle and costing taxpayer money...
Just look at a number of the British royals.
That's quite true. In my opinion, it is another point in favor of having the Japanese-style binary choice between working full-time for the monarchy (and/or an uncontentious charitable organization) or becoming an entirely private citizen.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
Well, if you believe that then I've got an Eiffel Tower for sale.
The national-conservatives don't strike me as people who are particularly concerned with the sensibilities of the Imperial Family. On the contrary in fact.
There is a global tendency among ultra-conservatives to be scared witless of females in prominent positions. I don't really understand why and it's usually excused by traditional and/or religious reasons - ergo it should not be done...
But I did not say they were concerned with the sensibilities of the imperial family. What I said was that they are not burying their heads in the sand. If anyone is leaving themselves open to the charge of burying their heads in the sand, it is the public, who state their support of change for women in the imperial family but are continuing to back Prime Minister Abe, a staunch opponent (to clarify, I think the public's actions are fully explainable and I am not accusing them of burying their heads in the sand).

The nationalist-conservatives have made their position clear. Were anything to happen to Hisahito, or if he failed to produce a son, they would heartily choose allowing the official line of heirs to run out and promoting a commoner from a remote male branch of the family to the imperial throne, over accepting females as official heirs. Far from burying their heads in the sand, they have recognized the possibilities and they are making a choice accordingly.
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  #1128  
Old 04-27-2019, 11:22 AM
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So to sum up: We pretty much mean the same thing?

Except that I perhaps have a good deal more reservations when it comes to national-conservatism. Some of them have a tendency, over time, to develop a stiff right arm...
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  #1129  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:02 PM
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I sadly don't think Aiko, Mako or Kako will ever reign.
Their children ? Only if Hisahito dies without sons and at least one of them marry a male line descendant of an Emperor and have children so theur children is still in the correct bloodline.

Otherwise, i'm pretty sure we will see an Empress Aiko for a while who will be succeeded by a man from another branch who has been brought up as a commoner and elevsted to royal status late in life. A stable solution for the monarchy ? I don't know. The only thing i know is that it won't happen here in Sweden. And probably in no other european monarchy. But the swedish monarchy is not the Japanese one....

It's easy for us here in Europe to sit and tell how Japan should handle their monarchy, based on how we do and after our western european culture and not after their culture and traditions.
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  #1130  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
So to sum up: We pretty much mean the same thing?

Except that I perhaps have a good deal more reservations when it comes to national-conservatism. Some of them have a tendency, over time, to develop a stiff right arm...

I was under the impression that we weren't having a political discussion (assuredly, I wasn't discussing politics), but debating the motivations behind nationalist-conservatives' ostensible inaction concerning the succession and membership laws.

My response was to your comment "And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand" (in post #1122), because it is a comment which numerous other people, at least in the West, have made.

My aim was to highlight that the reason the nationalist-conservatives are stalling is not that they are burying their heads in the sand – the term would imply they are ignoring the issue. To the contrary, it is because they are active and vigilant on this issue, and they recognize that stalling is the easiest route to achieving their desired outcome.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Hans-Rickard View Post
I sadly don't think Aiko, Mako or Kako will ever reign.
Their children ? Only if Hisahito dies without sons and at least one of them marry a male line descendant of an Emperor and have children so theur children is still in the correct bloodline.

Otherwise, i'm pretty sure we will see an Empress Aiko for a while who will be succeeded by a man from another branch who has been brought up as a commoner and elevsted to royal status late in life. A stable solution for the monarchy ? I don't know. The only thing i know is that it won't happen here in Sweden. And probably in no other european monarchy. But the swedish monarchy is not the Japanese one....

It's easy for us here in Europe to sit and tell how Japan should handle their monarchy, based on how we do and after our western european culture and not after their culture and traditions.
I think the outcome of Hisahito dying without sons would be determined by many influences: the government and public opinion of the day, whether female-led branches have been introduced, the existence of any scandals connected to the suggested candidates for the imperial throne.

It bears remembering that if Emperor Akihito had not asked Fumihito and Kiko to conceive a male child, Japan would almost certainly have a Crown Princess Aiko and Prince Kei (if Mako were allowed to marry her boyfriend in this scenario) in the near future.
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  #1131  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
It bears remembering that if Emperor Akihito had not asked Fumihito and Kiko to conceive a male child, Japan would almost certainly have a Crown Princess Aiko and Prince Kei (if Mako were allowed to marry her boyfriend in this scenario) in the near future.
Do we know for sure it was the emperor who asked his son (and daughter-in-law) to try for more children?
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  #1132  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Somebody View Post
Do we know for sure it was the emperor who asked his son (and daughter-in-law) to try for more children?
The emperor has never made a public statement to that effect. But I agree with ChiaraC's reading of the events and her conclusion that the couple would never have done so, and the IHA official would never have made the public statement asking them to do so in 2003, without support from the emperor.

Correction: The public statement about the Akishinos was made in 2003 (and thus not immediately after Aiko's birth), and on a reread of some of ChiaraC's posts on this forum, it seems she was citing the analysis of two reliable journalists.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiaraC View Post
As Fritz and Kobayashi report it had at this time already become obvious even to some visitors of the princess that there was something seriously wrong with her. One remembered: “The princess tried to hide her psychical fatigue because she did not want to cause worries to anybody. But the dark circles around her eyes could not be overlooked, despite of the make-up she had put on.” A friend of Masako´s told Fritz and Kobayashi that this was one of the princess` characteristics: “It is part of her character that she will try to the last to not show her suffering to others.” Unfortunately though, in a certain respect she was too successful doing this: the medical team surrounding the princess (they are always there, not because she was thought to be ill at the time but just because in her position as the crown princess she would always have medicals watching her) did not take her serious when she described to them her symptoms of sleeplessness, fatigue and her problems to get up in the morning. Their advice simply consisted in: “Take walks and think positive!” And it very probably did not make things easier for Masako that in June 2003 the grand steward of the kunaicho, Toshio Yuasa, said on a press conference that he strongly wanted the couple to have their second child – and that he was not the only one entertaining that wish…

Masako still carried on a bit but on the 2nd December 2003, only one day after her daughter´s second birthday, she broke down with physical symptoms that the doctors finally HAD to take serious. She was diagnosed with herpes zoster. Herpes zoster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia A famous dermatologist from a big private hospital was called in at once who prescribed a treatment combined of antibiotics and injections. Although this eased Masako´s pain the doctor decided to have her brought to the palace hospital where she remained until the 8th December. But the princess was still not well. So, the celebrations on occasion of her 40th birthday had to be cancelled. The head of the togu household, at the time that was Hideki Hayashida, declared that the princess would not be able to perform any official duties before spring 2004. As a reason he said that Masako was suffering from exhaustion because of the double burden of official duties and the education of her child.

It was at the same time that Masako was publicly informed that she had finally been given up as hopeless to bear an heir. Toshio Yuasa, grand steward of the kunaicho, told the press that for the interest of the monarchy the Akishinos were desired to have their third child. And he added that this should be done quickly in order to not further increase the big gap (in age) already existing between this new child and its elder sisters. Fritz and Kobayashi comment that for an executive, even if he was the grand steward of the kunaicho, it would have been impertinent and by far exceeding his authority to bring public shame on the crown princess in such a way. And they say that as he nevertheless dared to act like this it is to be supposed that he was not speaking for himself but had been ordered to do so by a higher power…

In January 2004, the princess herself gave a comment on her state (in written form). It said: “Since my wedding, approximately 10 years ago, I have tried to give my best in an unfamiliar environment under enormous pressure. But I feel that my illness is owing to the fact that my psychical and physical exhaustion has been accumulating during that time. Since Aiko´s birth I have taken pains to do justice equally to my official duties and to the taking care of my child. But since last year´s spring I feel bad.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiaraC View Post
I really think its contents are worth sharing because the authors are trying to give an explanation for the conflicts in the imperial family that to me seems very interesting and convincing. As you can already suppose from the title (Prinzessin Masako – Der gefangene Schmetterling: Princess Masako – The encaged butterfly, from 2005) they are very compassionate upon Masako. They say that they got a lot of information from friends of Masako and Naruhito who did not get the couple´s official permission to talk to journalists but who are so concerned and worried about the situation that they decided to give them anonymously the information they have. That the authors really got their information from these friends, of course, is something that they cannot prove under the circumstances, we have to believe it (or not). From my point of view, I can say that neither the style of the book nor the contents give the impression of yellow press. One of the authors, Martin Fritz, is a German journalist who lives in Tokio and works for a German public TV station, ARD, and they are usually supposed to be "serious" and to not invent things to make a story. (Of course there are many differences but to give you an idea: they have a reputation a bit like BBC.) They definitely have a reputation to lose if one of them tells nonsense. So I really suppose he should be creditable. The other author, Yoko Kobayashi, works as a free journalist in Tokio.
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  #1133  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
I was under the impression that we weren't having a political discussion (assuredly, I wasn't discussing politics), but debating the motivations behind nationalist-conservatives' ostensible inaction concerning the succession and membership laws.

My response was to your comment "And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand" (in post #1122), because it is a comment which numerous other people, at least in the West, have made.

My aim was to highlight that the reason the nationalist-conservatives are stalling is not that they are burying their heads in the sand – the term would imply they are ignoring the issue. To the contrary, it is because they are active and vigilant on this issue, and they recognize that stalling is the easiest route to achieving their desired outcome.
(Shortened by me.)

Alas, we cannot separate politics from the succession issue, especially not when it comes to the national-conservatives.

As you know most of the mainstream press in Japan is either controlled or under heavy influence of the current government and/or the more ultra national conservative segments of the public and political spectrum.
(In other threads we have discussed for the foreign political aspects of that. Which is a major irritant to quite a few of Japan's neighbors!
And also the hushing up of certain things regarding the nuclear plant that was flooded after the tsunami.)
In the press a number of trial-balloons have gone up in regards to the succession issues, not least in regards to proposing a number of solutions to how having a female on the throne is (read should be) unnecessary.
I need not mention the suggestion of using an official (and fertile) concubine, do I? Of course suggested while adding that as a last resort-absolutely-last-unavidable-necessary step a female could (at least temporarily) sit on the throne.
And while we outside Japan, may roll our eyes way back in our heads or even chuckle at these suggestion, the political realities in Japan is that the current national-conservative government needs the support of the ultra-nationals. So the albeit limited (but very influential) political resistance to females on the throne is to be taken very seriously!
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  #1134  
Old 06-22-2019, 02:53 AM
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Key opposition party favors opening way for female, maternal-line emperors - The Mainichi
Quote:
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) has declared that it is in favor of opening the way for female members of the Imperial Family in the male line and male members in the female line to ascend to the Imperial Throne.

[...]

In the meantime, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), another key opposition party, said it agrees with allowing female members of the Imperial Family in the male line to accede to the throne as it unveiled a summary of its proposal to revise the Imperial House Law. However, it stopped short of supporting the idea of allowing those in the female line to ascend to the throne.

[...]

The CDP and the DPFP released their respective views in apparent bids to take the initiative in discussions on Imperial succession, an issue that has drawn particular attention from the public, and urge the government to take action.

There are no prospects that a consensus can be formed on whether to allow Imperial Family members in the female line to ascend to the Chrysanthemum Throne, which the CDP advocates.

[....]

In contrast, the DPFP is poised to submit a bill to revise the Imperial House Law to the Diet during the ongoing regular session at the earliest and incorporate the proposal in its campaign pledge. The party believes there is room for compromise on its proposal to allow female members of the Imperial Family in the male line to accede to the throne because even conservatives within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party accept the idea.

Another opposition Japanese Communist Party (JCP) earlier this month declared that it is also in favor of allowing female members of the Imperial Family and male members in the female line to ascend to the Imperial Throne. [...]
On June 20th, ultranationalist association Nippon Kaigi rejected female emperors, female-line emperors, and female-led Imperial branches at a plenary session within the National Assembly. They will propose measures to secure male-only succession. [Sankei]
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  #1135  
Old 06-22-2019, 03:00 AM
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An interesting suggestion.
That should annoy the government since it's a palatable compromise as well as sound and therefore difficult to reject.

It depends of course on how dependent the government is on the ultra-nationalists. And how important the ultra-nationalists find this.
I think this proposal is half genuinely sincere and half designed to create a split within the government coalition.
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  #1136  
Old 06-24-2019, 07:46 PM
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I wonder why the CDP and DPFP opted against embracing a more wholehearted stance. The polling evidence is that anti-maternal-line emperor voters are overwhelmingly anti-female emperor as well, and considering the preponderance of ultranationalists among them, I'm skeptical about the winnability of these voters for the CDP and DPFP.

The Communist Party's suggestion to open the imperial throne to non-imperial family members is odd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prisma View Post
On June 20th, ultranationalist association Nippon Kaigi rejected female emperors, female-line emperors, and female-led Imperial branches at a plenary session within the National Assembly. They will propose measures to secure male-only succession. [Sankei]
Nippon Kaigi has made their views clear enough with or without a plenary session...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
An interesting suggestion.
That should annoy the government since it's a palatable compromise as well as sound and therefore difficult to reject.
Unfortunately, the government is under no obligation to reject it. They need only to reiterate their promises to discuss the suggestions - on a date to be announced later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
Alas, we cannot separate politics from the succession issue, especially not when it comes to the national-conservatives.
Yes, but you seemingly thought that I was discussing my own positions on politics, and I wished to emphasize that I was not.
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  #1137  
Old 07-03-2019, 03:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria View Post
I wonder why the CDP and DPFP opted against embracing a more wholehearted stance. The polling evidence is that anti-maternal-line emperor voters are overwhelmingly anti-female emperor as well, and considering the preponderance of ultranationalists among them, I'm skeptical about the winnability of these voters for the CDP and DPFP.
The gap between LDP and other parties is huge.

http://https://www.japantimes.co.jp/...an-poll-shows/

Quote:
In a two-day telephone poll conducted from Wednesday, 28.8 percent said they would vote for the LDP when casting their ballots under proportional representation. The ruling party was followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan with 9.0 percent.Komeito, which forms the ruling bloc with the LDP, garnered 5.6 percent, while the Japanese Communist Party had 3.4 percent followed by Nippon Ishin no Kai at 3.2 percent, the Democratic Party for the People at 1.6 percent and the Social Democratic Party at 1.2 percent.
Tsumura Keisuke from DPFP and Yasushi Adachi from JRP are promoting Aiko to be the Crown Princess. The proposal content is to allow female inheritance with the priority given to the direct descendant then to the paternal line with the following succession order :
1. Princess Aiko
2. Prince Akishino
3. Prince Hisahito
4. Princess Mako
5. Princess Kako
6. Prince Hitachi

Tsumura keisuke claimed that his party haven't decide anything to allow female-line / maternal-line succession. He said with this succession order he insisted on "giving priority to the male-line". As for the female miyake that is for the future generations of the citizens to decide.

So far with this proposal DPFP don't lose or gain supports significantly despite the survey for Crown Princess Aiko is about 70 to 80 percent in favor.
While the JRP is currently on crisis. They are usually regarded as voters alternative for LDP. But now some voters are sceptical ever since the CP Aiko proposal and another proposal avout birthplace information elimination from koseki and other identity documents.

The statement about Japan's media being controlled by ultra-nationalist conservative right-wing is not true. In Heisei era there's a new conservative generations that have different characteristic than their older counterparts the uyoku dantai. This new generation is called Netouyo. Literally means internet right-wing. Netouyo was a phenomenon in those days because they deviate from mainstream media's opinion. Netouyo in its conception was started as an insult and the mainstream media liked to "study" them and their mindset on tv programs in a condecending way. The internet is their turf and matome websites are their nests. This Netouyo also more friendly towards USA than the uyoku dantai.
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  #1138  
Old 07-08-2019, 05:19 AM
Heir Presumptive
 
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Location: St Thomas, U.S. Minor Outlying Islands
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Welcome, and thank you for your perceptive posts!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiwa View Post
The gap between LDP and other parties is huge.

http://https://www.japantimes.co.jp/...an-poll-shows/

Quote:
In a two-day telephone poll conducted from Wednesday, 28.8 percent said they would vote for the LDP when casting their ballots under proportional representation. The ruling party was followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan with 9.0 percent.Komeito, which forms the ruling bloc with the LDP, garnered 5.6 percent, while the Japanese Communist Party had 3.4 percent followed by Nippon Ishin no Kai at 3.2 percent, the Democratic Party for the People at 1.6 percent and the Social Democratic Party at 1.2 percent.
Indeed, I'm surprised the leaders of the small parties (is the JRP the JIP?), who presumably have an understanding of their numbers, are concerned enough about disappointing voters on this issue to attempt to straddle the divide. I have a strong feeling that the parliamentary arithmetic is not going to change depending on the minor parties' positions on the Imperial House Law.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiwa View Post
Tsumura Keisuke from DPFP and Yasushi Adachi from JRP are promoting Aiko to be the Crown Princess. The proposal content is to allow female inheritance with the priority given to the direct descendant then to the paternal line with the following succession order :
1. Princess Aiko
2. Prince Akishino
3. Prince Hisahito
4. Princess Mako
5. Princess Kako
6. Prince Hitachi

Tsumura keisuke claimed that his party haven't decide anything to allow female-line / maternal-line succession. He said with this succession order he insisted on "giving priority to the male-line". As for the female miyake that is for the future generations of the citizens to decide.
A confusing claim. I don't understand how an order of succession in which Aiko is number one and Hisahito is number three could be considered to "give priority to the male line", or how female succession could be sustainable if female-line succession and branches are not instituted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiwa View Post
So far with this proposal DPFP don't lose or gain supports significantly despite the survey for Crown Princess Aiko is about 70 to 80 percent in favor.
While the JRP is currently on crisis. They are usually regarded as voters alternative for LDP. But now some voters are sceptical ever since the CP Aiko proposal and another proposal avout birthplace information elimination from koseki and other identity documents.
Do you have the survey, and does it refer to female succession, or to making Aiko in particular the Crown Princess? I would think the latter would receive more criticism since it would remove Fumihito and Hisahito from their position as future monarchs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiwa View Post
The statement about Japan's media being controlled by ultra-nationalist conservative right-wing is not true. In Heisei era there's a new conservative generations that have different characteristic than their older counterparts the uyoku dantai. This new generation is called Netouyo. Literally means internet right-wing. Netouyo was a phenomenon in those days because they deviate from mainstream media's opinion. Netouyo in its conception was started as an insult and the mainstream media liked to "study" them and their mindset on tv programs in a condecending way. The internet is their turf and matome websites are their nests. This Netouyo also more friendly towards USA than the uyoku dantai.
Thank you for the clarification. Do you think there is a demographic divide between the Netouyo and the nationalist establishment on imperial issues?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Prisma View Post
I wish solo activities for Imperial women were considered years ago, especially for Masako. Imagine if she had been allowed patronages or something.
Agreed. I hope that all the members of the imperial family, including the Akishino sisters, the Mikasas and the Takamados, will be able to develop their independent contributions during this reign.
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  #1139  
Old 07-16-2019, 07:24 PM
Ista's Avatar
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Join Date: Feb 2018
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More opinions on the succession issues:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XS5cRy2ZM6V

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XS5c2i2ZM6U
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  #1140  
Old 07-17-2019, 07:46 PM
Heir Presumptive
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: St Thomas, U.S. Minor Outlying Islands
Posts: 2,718
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ista View Post
While the professors' analyses of the Constitution are interesting, I would not expect their arguments to have any political value. The cases of Japan's Supreme Court striking down a law as unconstitutional are remarkably rare, happening only in cases of blatant violation of the Constitution. Moreover, neither side's constitutional argument is seriously compelling, in my personal opinion.

The Constitution indeed forbids gender discrimination in Article 14, but the same Article 14 also forbids hereditary privileges. If the monarchy should not be "above the law", as Professor Yokota says, the same principle could be used to argue that the monarchy itself is unconstitutional.

On the other hand, Professor Yagi's argument that in 1946, the wording "hereditary" in Article 2 was supposed to mean exclusively male heirs runs counter to history. The Diet in 1946 already saw debate over whether the gender equality clause in the Constitution allowed male-only succession.

Quote:
The then Imperial Household Ministry offered the view that Imperial succession only by male-line males would not run counter to gender equality guaranteed under the Constitution because the Imperial Family was an exception. However, in the then Imperial Diet, many legislators pointed out the inconsistency between male-only Imperial succession and the supreme law.

"When I read the Imperial House Act, I can't help feeling that the Imperial Family stands out from the people," said Ito Niizuma, a legislator of the Social Democratic Party of Japan, during a House of Representatives session in December 1946. Niizuma was elected to the Diet in April that year -- the year when Japanese women were franchised in national politics. Citing gender equality under the postwar Constitution, Niizuma continued, "As women appear to have become equal to human beings, I wonder if they can somehow eliminate the 'male-line male' rule."

[…]

In response, then Minister of State Tokujiro Kanamori said, "We have no choice but to recognize the legitimacy of the conventional system that has been in place for many years and to keep carrying it out." His reply was an apparent attempt to sidestep in-depth debate over the compatibility of the male-only succession rule with the new Constitution. "It is almost the Japanese people's conviction that the Imperial Throne must be succeeded by male-line males," he added.
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