Succession and Membership Issues


If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
:previous:
Dear mariaantoniapia
Thanks a lot for your very informative posts!:flowers::flowers::flowers: They are indispensable for understanding dynamics of the succession line in the Japanese Imperial family.
 
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I understood your answer perfectly, mariaantoniapia. Thank you for sharing your point of view.
 
Mr Takeda apparently wrote in a Shinto magazine (January 1, 2009) that he knew there was a man who was preparing to drive into the PM's residence in a lorry with 10 tons of gun powder and for this kind of man, Koizumi was worthy target to be assassinated because he was going to make the male imperial line extinct.

I am sorry my translation is not very good but I hope you get a gist of it.

In my opinion, too, Mr Takeda should have been interviewed by the police because he knew of a man was was a potential terrorist. Anyway, this kind of opinion of his gives him and his belief such a discredit because ..., who wants a man who advocate the assassination of a politician (in thiss case then-the PM) to become their emperor ? It gives me a chill and I will have such a great difficulty to respect and admire such an emperor or an emperor who is supported by such a belief.
That is quite understandable. Frankly, I sometimes think that the strict neutrality that the Japanese royals are bound to observe may be a little bit exaggerated. In my opinion, the monarch of a country should not meddle with daily politics or party politics, but he (or she) should have the right to remind the nation of its key values. Obviously, it takes a honorable personality who is worthy of trust and respect to fulfill such a task. But, at present, Japan is so lucky as to have such personalities on the throne and as heir apparent. :flowers:

I think the moral standards for a royal should be higher than for an “ordinary” person. But Takeda does not even meet average standards. I would not want to have such a person as my neighbour, as my working colleague or as the teacher of my children. So I have absolutely no hard time understanding that you do not want him as your emperor. I suppose, few people would. :ermm:

And even if the danger is small, I must say, it would be bad enough to have him as an imperial prince, in a similar position to that of Prince Akishino. I really hope it never happens, and I am confident that it won´t, except in case one of the princesses should take the unfortunate decision to marry him...
 
I personally think it is good if Aiko was allowed to become the Crown Princess in due course because it is only natural for most people in Japan if she succeeded her father Naruhito. There are two opinions in Japan: one is a josei tenno or a female emperor and another is a nyokei tenno or matrilineal emperor. Some people support the possibility of josei tenno but oppose the idea of nyokei tenno. In history of Japan, there were eight women who became Josei Tenno but no nyokei tenno. However, many people are not always sure about the different between the Josei Tenno and Nyokei Tenno.

I support both ideas of the Josei Tenno and the Nyokei Tenno and I would oppose the idea of forcing Aiko or any other princesses to marry a male descendant of an old miyake. It all seems so unnatural.

Thank you for giving your opinion on the succession issue. :) To me, like to the other members here, it is absolutely clear what you want to express. And if I, as a non-native speaker in English, have the right to say this, I would like to add that your English is excellent. :flowers:

I hope, too, that the Imperial Household Law will be changed. But from what I see, I receive the impression that the fact that there are opposing opinions is completely blocking reform and may even lead to a situation where the imperial household will hardly be able to fulfill its functions. I have the impression that the government is constantly minimizing the extent of the reform in order to avoid trouble with the conservative minority and that every step backwards is making the much-needed reform less effective. I am afraid, that in the end, nothing will happen, or at the utmost, the princesses may be allowed to keep their titles but not their status, which would, for sheer practical reasons, be by far not sufficient. :nonono:

Do you have more confidence in the resolution of the government to tackle the issue than I have?
 
ChiaraC said:
And even if the danger is small, I must say, it would be bad enough to have him as an imperial prince, in a similar position to that of Prince Akishino. I really hope it never happens, and I am confident that it won´t, except in case one of the princesses should take the unfortunate decision to marry him...

How old is Takeda? Middle-aged? The oldest of the Emperor's granddaughters is 20 which is a bit too young for him, I think. Hopefully it will never happen.
 
How old is Takeda? Middle-aged? The oldest of the Emperor's granddaughters is 20 which is a bit too young for him, I think. Hopefully it will never happen.
He is 36 years old.
A most unpleasant man, by all accounts.
 
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How old is Takeda? Middle-aged? The oldest of the Emperor's granddaughters is 20 which is a bit too young for him, I think. Hopefully it will never happen.
As mentioned before, in a Japanese forum I have found a pic of Takeda posted together with that of Princess Akiko of Mikasa. (She is 30, and she seems to sympathize with the idea to preserve the male line at all costs.) From the comments in that forum I got the impression that the two had some sort of relationship. But as mariaantoniapia seems to never have heard of that, maybe it is not true. Hopefully... :ermm:
 
ChiaraC said:
As mentioned before, in a Japanese forum I have found a pic of Takeda posted together with that of Princess Akiko of Mikasa. (She is 30, and she seems to sympathize with the idea to preserve the male line at all costs.) From the comments in that forum I got the impression that the two had some sort of relationship. But as mariaantoniapia seems to never have heard of that, maybe it is not true. Hopefully... :ermm:

Oh, I'd forgotten about Princess Akiko. Much smaller age gap too. Eek.
 
How closely related is Princess Akiko to the emperor though?
 
Originally Posted by Furienna
How closely related is Princess Akiko to the emperor though?
I always find it helpful to take a look at this chart that shows the genealogy of the imperial family. It makes things much clearer, in my opinion. Besides, it gives you an idea regarding how many couples have remained childless in the last two generations...
 
I always find it helpful to take a look at this chart that shows the genealogy of the imperial family. It makes things much clearer, in my opinion. Besides, it gives you an idea regarding how many couples have remained childless in the last two generations...
That's a very good chart! I feel like I have very little knowledge about the Japanese imperial family, so things like that sure can be useful some times.
 
I am glad that it helps. :flowers:

Of course, the married daughters are not mentioned on the chart but there are not many of them. Apart from former Princess Sayako, there are but two daughters of Prince Mikasa, former Princesses Yasuko and Masako, born 1944 and 1951, respectively. (Here is a picture of Prince and Princess Mikasa with members of their family, obviously also including their daughters with their families. In the first row you will recognize the daughters of Prince Tomohito of Mikasa, Princesses Yohko and Akiko (third and fourth from left).)

Besides, there is a rumour about a twin sister of Prince Mikasa. The Japanese journalist Toshiaki Kawahara maintained in an article written for the periodical “Focus” in the eighties that this sister became the abbess of the Enshō-ji Buddhist temple in Nara. Immediately after birth, she was allegedly given to Viscount Sanemochi Yamamoto to be raised as his daughter. The reason for this was, according to Kawahara, that twins were perceived as a bad omen as usually only animals gave birth to more than one baby at the same time.

However that may be, none of the couples that appear to be without children on the chart have a married daughter. They do not just seem childless, they in fact are.
 
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I am glad that it helps. :flowers:

Of course, the married daughters are not mentioned on the chart but there are not many of them. Apart from former Princess Sayako, there are but two daughters of Prince Mikasa, former Princesses Yasuko and Masako, born 1944 and 1951, respectively. (Here is a picture of Prince and Princess Mikasa with members of their family, obviously also including their daughters with their families. In the first row you will recognize the daughters of Prince Tomohito of Mikasa, Princesses Yohko and Akiko (third and fourth from left).)

Besides, there is a rumour about a twin sister of Prince Mikasa. The Japanese journalist Toshiaki Kawahara maintained in an article written for the periodical “Focus” in the eighties that this sister became the abbess of the Enshō-ji Buddhist temple in Nara. Immediately after birth, she was allegedly given to Viscount Sanemochi Yamamoto to be raised as his daughter. The reason for this was, according to Kawahara, that twins were perceived as a bad omen as usually only animals gave birth to more than one baby at the same time.

However that may be, none of the couples that appear to be without children on the chart have a married daughter. They do not just seem childless, they in fact are.

You are very knowledgeable !

Yes, Prince Takamatsu and Prince Chichibu died without any issues. Prince Katsura is unmarried and now disabled without any issues.

I am not sure about the rumour of Prince Mikasa's twin sister who was supposed to have become a nun at the Enshou-ji (d. 1995). Princesses Atsuko and Tomoko (b. 1907) who were born into the House of Fushimi were identical twins but were brought up together as twins. So, if he had a twin sister, then, I don't understand why Prince Mikasa (then the Prince Sumi or Sumi-no-miya)'s sister had to be adopted by the Viscount Yamamoto in Kyoto.

I shall also put a family tree of the Takeda-no-miyake here.



Kitashirakawa-no-miya Yoshihisa Shinnou
:
Takeda-no-miya Tsunehisa Ou (First Takeda-no-miya)
:
Tsuneyoshi Ou (Second Takeda-no-miya)
:
Tsunetada Ou (1) - Motoko Joou (2) - Noriko Joou (3) - Tsuneharu Ou (4) - Tsunekazu (5)
:
Tsunetaka - Hiroko


Tsunekaru Ou (4)
:
Tsuneaki - Tsunetomo


Tsunekazu (5)
:
Tsuneharu - Tsunetoshi
 
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You are very knowledgeable !
Thank you very much! :flowers:

I am not sure about the rumour of Prince Mikasa's twin sister who was supposed to have become a nun at the Enshou-ji (d. 1995). Princesses Atsuko and Tomoko (b. 1907) who were born into the House of Fushimi were identical twins but were brought up together as twins. So, if he had a twin sister, then, I don't understand why Prince Mikasa (then the Prince Sumi or Sumi-no-miya)'s sister had to be adopted by the Viscount Yamamoto in Kyoto.
I am merely quoting what I have read, and maybe it is not true. But if it should be, maybe it was because at the time, there was still a chance for Prince Mikasa of becoming emperor. From today´s perspective, you would not think it because he had three elder brothers who, as we know now, all reached adulthood, but there was a high mortality rate among children. The Taisho emperor had two elder brothers, too, but they died in infancy. So maybe it was acceptable for a princess of a collateral house to have a twin sister but not for a potential future tenno?

I shall also put a family tree of the Takeda-no-miyake here.


Kitashirakawa-no-miya Yoshihisa Shinnou
:
Takeda-no-miya Tsunehisa Ou (First Takeda-no-miya)
:
Tsuneyoshi Ou (Second Takeda-no-miya)
:
Tsunetada Ou (1) - Motoko Joou (2) - Noriko Joou (3) - Tsuneharu Ou (4) - Tsunekazu (5)
:
Tsunetaka - Hiroko


Tsunekaru Ou (4)
:
Tsuneaki - Tsunetomo


Tsunekazu (5)
:
Tsuneharu - Tsunetoshi

Thank you! :flowers: But, unfortunately, I do not quite understand who is who here. Those:
Tsunetada Ou (1) - Motoko Joou (2) - Noriko Joou (3) - Tsuneharu Ou (4) - Tsunekazu (5)
are obviously the children of the second Takeda-no-miya, but what about the rest?
 
The sixth expert hearing on the Imperial Household system is scheduled to take place tomorrow. (Source) But judging from the information that is available to me at present I have the strong impression that the government is playing for time. First, there is the obvious fact that the last hearing took place on 22 May. (At the beginning of the hearings it had been said that they should take place once or twice every month.) The second reason is the choice of experts for this sixth hearing. Of course, I do not know for sure what they will say. But I can guess rather easily.

Hidetsugu Yagi, Professor at Takasaki City University of Economics, is the author of a school history textbook critics say whitewashes Japan's wartime past. He was a vocal member of the minority who opposed Koizumi´s plans to change the succession law to enable a woman to take the throne. (That was before Princess Kiko´s third pregnancy became known. At the time, 81% of Japanese adults surveyed in a poll by the Nihon KezaiShimbun newspaper said they wanted to see the Imperial House Law revised to let Princess Aiko become reigning empress.) During one of the hearings that took place at the time, Yagi said that succession only along the male line, supposedly dating back 26 centuries, was part of Japan's "irreplaceable culture."

"If Princess Aiko becomes empress and has a child with an outsider, the bloodline will be broken," Yagi claimed. „This has never happened in history. Some say (Aiko's child) would lose legitimacy. Could we call such a person emperor?"

According to Yagi
, the fact that a huge majority of Japanese were supporting the amendment of the law could be disregarded because, as he said, „capricious public opinion“ was incapable of representing a sufficiently reliable base for the emperor system. Yagi believes the male line must be preserved at all costs, and he proposed broadening the pool of eligible male successors by reinstating one or more of the collateral houses who lost their status in 1947.

It seems to me that, at least at the time, Yagi had still another idea of how to preserve the male line. He strongly criticized Princess Masako, accusing her of having "a strong wish to put priority on other duties, such as travelling overseas, rather than giving birth”. According to Yagi, there were “very few people who actually say the words divorce, but they think it” and he claimed in the beginning of 2006 that Masako´s “withdrawal from the imperial family would certainly solve a lot of problems.” (Yagi did not actually say it, but, obviously, a divorce would have set the crown prince free to find a nice young Fujiwara girl and “try again” for a male heir.)

Isao Tokoro, Professor Emeritus at Kyoto Sangyo University, has conducted extensive research on the imperial family and has spoken before the Prime Minister's Advisory Council on the Imperial Household law in 2005. On the occasion, he said there is "great significance" in the fact that imperial succession from the male line was practiced for more than 1,000 years. But he added it was "impossible" to continue the succession under such restrictions. Although female monarchs should be allowed, males should be given precedence, because women can be expected to perform other "important roles," including bearing children, Tokoro said. "We are discussing the possible change only because of the need to preserve the imperial family, which is totally isolated from the world in which we live. It's not a women's rights issue," he added. (Source)

Already in 1999, Tokoro had emphasized the necessity to start discussions on revising the imperial law which was, according to him, hastily drafted as required by the post-war Constitution and left various problems unattended. (Source) In November 2001, shortly before Princess Aiko was born, Tokoro said, ''Even if the baby is a boy, with only three young male members -- the crown prince, Prince Akishino and the baby -- the imperial succession is not guaranteed.“ (Source) In 2001, he had proposed to reinstate some of the former collateral branches and let them carry on the line.

After Hisahito´s birth, Tokoro suggested Crown Prince Naruhito should formally adopt his little nephew as this would promote a smoother generational transition for the imperial family. In a speech before the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan in Tokyo, Professor Tokoro wondered how Prince Hisahito could prepare for his role as emperor unless he started at a young age. "Unlike Crown Prince Naruhito, who will head the main family, Prince Akishino, who heads a branch, doesn't have a huge staff. It would come in handy if he had enough staff in charge of his son's education. It would help, for example, if he wants to invite someone to lecture to his son," Tokoro said.

In my opinion, this last idea of Tokoro´s shows that he is a bit out of sync with modern Japan. It is true that, in the Japanese past, adoption was an important instrument that could help to preserve the family line (not only in the imperial family). But, at the time, imperial children were being raised by foster parents whereas, today, they live with their natural parents. It would be unthinkable to take Hisahito away from Prince and Princess Akishino to be raised by the crown prince and princess. I am sure that everybody concerned would have been rendered very unhappy by the arrangement. And in case that the adoption should actually have been a mere formality and Hisahito should have continued to live with his parents, we would have had the absurd situation of Hisahito not officially belonging to the family he lives with and him ranking above his father and mother.

Summing all things up, it seems rather probable that, tomorrow, Yagi as well as Tokoro will again bring up the idea of the reinstatement of the former collateral branches. Mind you, I do not think that this proposal has a chance of actually being realized, for several reasons. (Just for example, it would open another can o´ worms to determine who should get back royal status and who should stay a commoner. They cannot bring back all of them, for simple monetary reasons.) But the statements of the experts will give the government a good reason to say that there is more controversy than expected and that they need more time to thoroughly discuss the matter. :rolleyes: (Obviously, it is up to the government to decide whom they ask and at what time. They need not, at this moment, have invited two experts whose opinion is so predictably against the planned changes.) Prime Minister Noda will soon step down – and it seems to me that he silently thinks: “Après moi le déluge!” :whistling:
 
Gov't to make multiple proposals to allow female members to stay in Imperial Household after marriage
The government is set to incorporate multiple proposals to allow female members of the Imperial Family to stay in the Imperial Household after marriage into a rough draft of a bill to revise the Imperial House Law. After listening to opinions from political parties as well as members of the general public, the government will finalize the plan by the end of this year and aim to submit a bill to revise the law to the regular Diet session next year.

Under one proposal, Emperor Akihito's three granddaughters -- Princess Aiko, 10, who is the daughter of Crown Prince Naruhito, and Princess Mako, 20, and Princess Kako, 17, who are the daughters of Prince Akishino -- would be allowed to create their own families within the Imperial Household. Their prospective husbands and offspring would not have the right to ascend to the Imperial Throne. [...] During hearings, it has been said that the scope of female members of the Imperial Family allowed to create their own Imperial families should be small. In response, the government has deemed that only those within a second degree of kinship with the Emperor should be allowed to do so.

Under another proposal, female members of the Imperial Family would be allowed to retain their Imperial titles after marriage, though not allowed to set up their own families within the Imperial Household. [...] The government is considering allowing not only those within a second degree of kinship with the Emperor but also those with a third degree of kinship or more to retain their Imperial titles. This option would not cause any problems involving the right to accede to the Imperial Throne. Since it did not stir up opposition from even conservatives during government hearings, the government is likely to consider adopting this option if it struggles to coordinate opinions on the issue. [...]

Conservatives, who insist only male members of the Imperial Family of the male line should be allowed to accede to the Imperial Throne, are opposed to allowing female members to create families within the Imperial Household because it could open the way for a female-line emperor. Therefore, the government has decided to incorporate multiple proposals, including these two options, in a rough draft of a bill to revise the Imperial House Law to avoid a split in public opinion on the issue. The government will also try to avoid political friction over the issue by soliciting opinions from the public and both ruling and opposition parties.

However, since the offspring of female members of the Imperial Family would not be able to gain Imperial titles under the proposals, there is a high possibility that the number of Imperial Family members will sharply decrease again in the future.

Moreover, if the House of Representatives is dissolved for a snap general election, the ongoing discussions could be suspended, forcing the government to postpone a decision on the issue.
July 07, 2012(Mainichi Japan)

Originally, it had been planned to present the rough draft to an extraordinary session this autumn...
 
Imperial women face poll on 'branches'
Amid concerns over the dwindling number of male heirs, the government will ask female members of the Imperial Family for their opinion on establishing Imperial branches so they can retain their royal status even after marriage, government sources said Saturday.

The move is part of preparations to draft an amendment to the Imperial Household Law, which states that only male heirs who have emperors on their father's side are allowed to ascend the throne. It also requires female members to relinquish their Imperial status if they marry commoners.
Gov't to seek princesses' opinions on creating imperial branches
The government has interviewed 12 experts on the issue at hearings so far. Although their views were split on the creation of female branches, the experts largely agreed female family members should continue to be involved in imperial family activities even after marriage.

There are now eight unmarried female members, including Princess Aiko, 10, the only child of Crown Prince Naruhito and Crown Princess Masako, and the daughters of Prince Akishino -- Princess Mako, 20, and Princess Kako, 17. Meanwhile, there are only three male heirs on the emperor's side among the 23 current family members.

The government plans to make public the main parts of the experts' views as early as in September and later accept public comments on the matter.

Japan considers allowing female Imperial Family members keep royalty after marriage

While responses have been split over the issue, there is a general agreement female members should be allowed to continue their involvement in the Imperial Family even after they marry. [...]
This is certainly a step in the right direction of bringing Japan’s Imperial Family system into the ideals of the modern era. Now they just need to work on that rule that only allows males to ascend to the throne, and then they’ll be just as progressive as England’s royal family.
 
It seems the royal family of Japan has difficulty reproducing offspring. Even Princess Nori, who became a commoner at marriage, did not have a child during her childbearing years. Even introduction of commoners as spouses of male heirs has not made the problem easier. Why is this? Is the line close to extinct because of too many intermarriages in the past? Sometimes the genetic problems caused by intermarriages persists after the practice stops.

It would be a step backward, genetically, to allow collateral members into the prospective gene pool.

There is a child male heir at this time, but only one! There is no "spare" as in the British family and most other royal families. It seems that if they cannot accept Princess Aiko as an heir to the throne (perhaps following her cousin, who is male) then the family seems genetically doomed to dwindle. This may not be due to any identifiable ailment, as has occurred in other inbreeding families. It may be due to genes just too worn out (although scientifically I don't now what that would mean). It is called Pedigree extinction in some writings.

The other princesses, Kako and Mako, also should be urged to reproduce heirs--yes, try for boys, but if that does not work, consider the opinion of their Creator on this? I gather they ARE a religious family, with ex-princess Nori even now performing her new role as a priestess.
 
The other princesses, Kako and Mako, also should be urged to reproduce heirs

It is even worse than you seem to think. Kako and Mako cannot produce heirs to the throne, as little as Aiko. An heir to the Japanese throne has to be male and he has to be male-line. If Hisahito does not produce a son, then that is it. :ermm:

Concerning the rest of your post, I have a similiar suspicion as you have. And I think it possible that it is the very "male line" that might be the big problem. Defenders of the male line use to contend that it is the fact that the same y chromosome has (allegedly) been passed down for more than 1000 years that makes the Japanese monarchy so special. But if that should actually have been the case (in fact, it is one of the main plot points of one of the most famous classical Japanese novels that the heir to the throne is produced in an adulterous affair), that also means that this sacred y chromosome has had more than 1000 years of time to mutate and degenerate - ample opportunity, so to speak...

I´d like to quote what I said concerning this issue in another thread:

It is to be supposed that there will be even more progress concerning "reproductive technology". But even if there should be I doubt that this will mean that, in the future, literally EVERY couple will be enabled to have a child of their own. Wikipedia quotes a French study in which it is said that 40% of patients succeeded in having a child during the IVF treatment at the center. Even if the success rate should raise to 60 or 70%, considering the number of childless couples in the imperial family, I would not bet that Hisahito and his future wife could be absolutely sure of being among these 60 or 70%. [...]

Modern medicine can accomplish a lot but they have to have something to work with. For example, they may be able to save lives that would have been past hope fifty years ago. But they cannot revive the dead, and I doubt that they will ever be able to do that. Regarding the imperial family, I think there is reason to doubt that the "material" they´d have to work with gives anything that would come close to a guarantee of success.
The more I think about the whole matter, the more I would really, really like to get the opinion of a genetics specialist on the situation with the Japanese imperial family.

According to Wikipedia, the human Y chromosome is particularly exposed to high mutation rates (a risk of mutation 4.8 times greater than the rest of the genome), on the other hand there is a reduced possibility for selection as the Y chromosome does not recombine during meiosis. In other words, the Y chromosome is exposed to a far higher risk of degeneration than the rest of the genome. I suppose that usually an Y chromosome “beyond repair” would, at some point, simply not get to be passed down to the next generation, either because its “holder”, due to his defective Y chromosome, would prove unable to have any offspring at all or else, have merely female offspring. Maybe this obsession with the male line has, through the help of lots of concubines, so far kept the natural genetic selection from taking its course with the imperial family, thereby preserving a completely degenerated Y chromosome that under different, "normal" circumstances would have been weeded out of the gene pool a long time ago already.

It strikes me as remarkable that already for quite some time before Hirohito´s father, the Taisho emperor, there was but one son in every generation who survived infancy (and inherited the throne) - in spite of the efforts of all those concubines... :whistling: It seems to me that even by then there were more princesses born than princes. Of course, there could be a whole lot of reasons for why this was so (at the time many children died early, boys as well as girls), but imo it would be very interesting to investigate this whole matter more closely. It would also be very interesting to take a look at the number of miscarriages in past generations and to know their gender. (Michiko as well as Masako suffered miscarriages.) Of course, it would be very difficult to find out details about imperial miscarriages from Western sources because except in spectacular cases like with Masako they will hardly ever get much public attention if they are at all made public in the first place.

What I am trying to say is that I think it is absolutely possible that male offspring of the imperial family may have less chances to (1) be conceived in the first place, then (2) to be born healthily and last (3) to survive childhood, due to a defect of the Y chromosome involved. Besides, I think it is also possible that the general sperm quality of male IF members may be rather low, due to the same defect. The first would explain why imperial offspring is usually female, the second why some members do not have any offspring at all. Of course, as they all share the same Y chromosome, one would have to explain why in some cases this results in infertility, in other cases just in an inability to father male children. (Regarding Hisahito, I for one am convinced that the sperm got some "friendly medical support", so it is possible that under “natural circumstances” Akishino might never have been able to father a son, either.)

It is possible, of course, that Hisahito will have one or more male children, with or without the help of modern medicine. But, imo, there is really no guarantee for that, not at all.

yes, try for boys, but if that does not work, consider the opinion of their Creator on this? I gather they ARE a religious family, with ex-princess Nori even now performing her new role as a priestess.
You will probably be surprised to hear it but the imperial family actually claims descent from a goddess...;)
 
There is only one problem with the idea that the Imperial family is dying out because the y chromosome is 1000 years old and therefore has had lots of oppurtunities to mutate. Well two actually. First the Imperial families y chromosome would be a lot older than 1000 years. And every male alive today has a y chromosome many hundreds of thousands of years old. (I'm not sure when the Y chromosome Adam lived).
 
1) Well, according to history (not myth, history), the imperial family dates back 1500 years, approximately. But even if the myth were true (which it cannot possibly be because historians nowadays agree that Japan, in the sense of an unified country, did not exist before around the fourth century) and it were 2600 years as ultranationalists falsely claim, this would clearly serve to make matters only worse.

2) Obviously, there are parents to every child. But, and that is the point here, it does not work the other way round: not every person gets to have children.

There are always individuals who do not succeed in passing their genetic information to the next generation, for a great variety of reasons depending on the circumstances, but the bad quality of their genome can definitely be one of them. Usually, this is not a problem because if this specific individual does not produce offspring, another will. Of course, there will always be parts of the genome that are, even in their present form, very old, sometimes it also happens that they mutate "for the better" etc. If you just want humanity to procreate, you do not have a problem because of the variety of genetic information that exists and because of the fact that the effect of "detrimental" mutation is counterbalanced by "good" mutation if you are dealing with a sufficiently high number of potential "procreators". Quantity is the key here.

If, in contrast, you refuse to rely on this counterbalancing effect of quantity but instead insist on a specific genetic material to be passed on for centuries, you may get a real problem because that is not how things normally work. Undoubtedly, there are always lots of y chromosomes that make it, changed by mutation or not, to the next generation, and the next and the next etc. But there are also quite a few that do not make it. If you humanly insist on deciding which should be which, if you claim to determine that a certain genetic material should "survive" for centuries and should absolutely get to be passed on, it is very probable that you will, in the long run, be forced to admit your impotence. It is nature that makes this choice, not man.

And, according to my impression, there is sufficient reason to suspect that, in this case, nature may have decided against the imperial family - at least as far as its male line is concerned.
 
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1) Well, according to history (not myth, history), the imperial family dates back 1500 years, approximately. But even if the myth were true (which it cannot possibly be because historians nowadays agree that Japan, in the sense of an unified country, did not exist before around the fourth century) and it were 2600 years as ultranationalists falsely claim, this would clearly serve to make matters only worse..
It doesnt matter how far back recorded history goes, the Emperors Y chromosome goes back to the original 'Adam' that all current y chromes descend from. And yes you are right in that some Y chrome lines die out, it happens all the time as you say. But I bet that there are men, somewhere in Japan, that share the same Y chrome as the Emperor, through an line that might have split off from the Emperors many centuries or millenia ago.
However there does seem to be something at work against the Imperial families male line. Do you know much about the female lines. Are there many families descended from daughters that are doing better? Or have daughters also been irregular breeders?
 
It doesnt matter how far back recorded history goes, the Emperors Y chromosome goes back to the original 'Adam' that all current y chromes descend from. And yes you are right in that some Y chrome lines die out, it happens all the time as you say. But I bet that there are men, somewhere in Japan, that share the same Y chrome as the Emperor, through an line that might have split off from the Emperors many centuries or millenia ago.
Yes, you are certainly right in that. Not every prince born into the imperial families would be allowed to keep his status and have a family of his own, at the same time. „Spare“ princes had two career options. They could “descend” to subject status with a noble title or enter the Buddhist priesthood as the head of a temple. That means that quite a few noble families should have an „imperial“ Y chromosome, and the same goes even for commoners: also in noble families non-successor sons could choose between becoming a monk and setting up their own house independently, in which case they had to give up their noble status and become a commoner. To my knowledge, it has never once happened that such men were restored to the imperial rank of their forefathers or were considered as imperial heirs. (If there was a need for an heir, the collateral princely houses would provide it.) But as far as genetics are concerned, those nobles and commoners are related to the imperial family alright. However, there have been no such cases of “descent” during the last two centuries because imperial male offspring was rather scarce during that the time. For quite some time, there was always but one surviving imperial son who would follow his father on the throne when the time came.

But the fact that commoners can boast imperial ancestors and are genetically related to them does not necessarily mean that they have still the identical y chromosome that was passed on to them from an emperor of the fourteenth century (or whenever). As I said, the human Y chromosome is particularly exposed to high mutation rates. So, it is actually quite possible that the Y chromosome of the imperial line is today rather different than in the fourteenth century, and this not because of a concubine´s “drunken moment”, but because of mutation. The “origin” of the Y chromosome of the commoner of today and of the imperial family of today may be the same fourteenth century emperor. But it is possible that time has considerably changed the shape of both of them. This need not necessarily have been for worse. Maybe the commoner descendant is producing a dozen sons alright (well, admittedly improbable in today´s Japan but just for the sake of the argument...;)) And, theoretically, it would, of course, have been also possible that the “shape” that the Y chromosome took in the imperial family could have been for the better (in terms of fertility/procreation). The point is just that present evidence seems to hint at the fact that although it could have, it actually has not.

However there does seem to be something at work against the Imperial families male line. Do you know much about the female lines. Are there many families descended from daughters that are doing better? Or have daughters also been irregular breeders?

The four surviving daughters of Emperor Meiji (1852 – 1912), the great grandfather of the present emperor, had all 2-4 children, respectively, among them at least one son. Two of the four surviving daughters of the Shōwa Emperor Hirohito (1901 - 1989) did not have any children, one had one son, the fourth had 5 children. Of the two daughters of Prince Mikasa, a cousin of the present emperor, one has one son, the other has two sons and a daughter. This is admittedly scarce material to base an opinion about the state of the genes of the female members of the imperial family upon. But for the time before the Meiji emperor, frankly, I do not know. The daughters had never any succession rights, unlike in European monarchies, so it was irrelevant for the monarchy if they produced any offspring. Of course, it would be theoretically possible to get more information on this subject but I think you would have to have access to Japanese sources to find out details.

However, for the sake of completeness, I would also like to mention that, for centuries it had been the custom that imperial princesses married a member of the Fujiwara clan, if possible. Also, until the marriage of the Emperor Shōwa to Princess Nagako Kuni, the principal consorts of emperors had always come from the Fujiwara clan. It is interesting that for several generations before Hirohito the mother of the heir had not been the principal consort of the emperor, but a concubine. I think it is possible that this was the result of this inbreeding, of imperial princesses marrying Fujiwaras and emperors marrying Fujiwara girls. (But, of course, this part of the story should be irrelevant to the state of things today.)
 
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Struck me as weird to require that Princesses who marry outside the family lose their status and membership of the Imperial family. Fair enough if there is a large extended family to choose from but the situation of the modern Imperial family means that they are forced to choose between a loss of status or marrying a close cousin.
 
I agree with you. That rule must have made sense at some point, but with only three heirs to the throne, something has to be changed.
 
There was a time when it was common enough for members of the Imperial family to have 5 children or more: just to keep on going until there was an heir and a spare, I suppose.

Taisho and Teimei had 4 children, all boys. Hirohito had 7 children, with 2 boys.
 
Well, Taisho did not have any brothers, so he had to produce sons if he did not want the throne to go to a collateral branch that was but remotely related to the main family.

But even in Hirohito´s generation not everybody had a bunch of children. In fact, two of his three brothers, although married, did not have any offspring at all (for whatever reason). That means that it is not absolutely correct to say that today the young princesses “are forced to choose between a loss of status or marrying a close cousin“ - because there are no close cousins. The only bachelor belonging to the imperial family is Emperor Akihito´s cousin Prince Katsura (born in 1948), who has been paralyzed from the waist down since suffering a series of strokes in May 1988 and uses a wheelchair. That´s it. Under the current law, the princesses have to remain single if they want to keep their status. (I would presume that marrying Hisahito is for none of them an option.)
 
The Imperial House Law 1889, Article XLIV, states that:

A female member of the Imperial Family, who is married to a subject, shall be excluded from membership in the Imperial Family. However, she may be allowed, by special grace of the Emperor to retain her title of naishinnô or nyoô, as the case may be.​

The 1889 law was replaced by the Imperial House Law 1947. Article 12 states that:

In case a female of the Imperial Family marries a person other than the Emperor or the members of the Imperial Family, she shall lose the status of the Imperial Family member.​

So there does not appear to be a major historical reason to deprive princesses of their membership of the Imperial House.
 
No, basically, there is not. But things have changed in so far as in former times imperial princesses would marry members from the collateral branches or at least someone from the nobility, often a prince from the powerful Fujiwara clan. To my knowledge, in the past there has never been an example of a princess marrying a mere commoner. But after World War II, everybody was reduced to commoner status except the emperor and the members of his immediate family. That means that the “gap” between imperial princesses and whoever they marry has become immense today, in terms of status.

This being said, you are completely right. In fact, the rule you quote has also been referred to during the ongoing discussions about the status of the princesses, and has been used to justify the proposal to let them retain their titles but not their status.

Still, if this should come to pass it would by far not solve all problems. First, it would not help the succession issue at all. And second, if it were but the princesses who could keep their titles or maybe their status, but their husbands and, in particular, their children would still be commoners, the same problem they have now: the decrease of imperial family members, would be sure to appear again in the next generation. Even if the princesses should be allowed to keep their titles, in the generation after Hisahito the imperial family would solely consist of whatever children he produces. If he produces any...
 
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