Ella Kay
Courtier , Royal Blogger
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I don't see a marriage before the London Olympics and partly because of the costs of the Olympics on top of everything else but also mainly because I don't see William wanting to marry at all until he finishes his full time military service and that I think takes him to about 2012 - Olympic and Jubilee Year so a royal marriage is out that year.
If he's going to marry Kate, I doubt they will wait that long.
My guess is still summer 2010. He will be finished with his SAR training right about then, and that would put both of them at 28. He'll have a short interim period in summer 2010, and then he'll begin his full-time SAR job. I think they'll marry in that interim and then move together to live as a married couple on whatever military base William's posted to.
I think the wedding will be quite a bit smaller than '81 -- but I wonder if a slightly scaled-down '86 isn't actually something more like what we'll see. A wedding at Westminster Abbey means the drive back to Buckingham Palace would be much shorter and would require less security. The Abbey is more than grand enough for the wedding of the second-in-line to the throne, but it's not as massive as St. Paul's. They could economize in little ways along the way -- with the opulence of the dress, the music, the flowers, etc.
Anyway, that's what I see reflected in my magical crystal ball. I think 2010 will be like 2004 -- a double royal-wedding summer.