Succession
Unlike the heads of other Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Qaboos has not publicly named an heir. This became a particular concern after the sultan spent eight months in Germany for medical treatment of an alleged cancer. Although Sultan Qaboos returned to Oman on 23 March 2015 and state officials as well as the Sultan himself repeatedly assured the population over his health, the question of his succession still generates speculation.[20] Article 6 of the constitution says the royal family should choose a new sultan within three days of the position falling vacant. If the royal family council fails to agree, a letter containing a name penned by Sultan Qaboos should be opened in the presence of a defence council of military and security officials, supreme court chiefs, and heads of the two quasi-parliamentary advisory assemblies.[21] Analysts see the rules as an elaborate means of sultan Qaboos securing his choice for successor without causing controversy by making it public during his lifetime, since it is considered unlikely that the royal family would be able to agree on a successor on its own.[21]
Qaboos has no children; there are other male members of the Omani royal family including several paternal uncles and their families. Using same-generation primogeniture, the successor to Qaboos would appear to be the children of his late uncle, Sayyid Tariq bin Taimur Al Said, Oman's first prime minister before the sultan took over the position himself (and his former father-in-law).[22] Oman watchers believe the top contenders to succeed Qaboos are three of Tariq's sons: Assad bin Tariq Al Said, the personal representative of the Sultan; Shihab bin Tariq, a retired naval commander; and Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the Minister of Heritage and National Culture.[21][23] First Deputy Prime Minister Fahd bin Mahmud al-Said, a distant cousin of the Sultan, and Taimur bin Assad, the son of Assad bin Tariq, are also mentioned as potential candidates.[21] The problem is that none of the above seem to have the necessary capacities to rule Oman, since Sultan Qaboos, differently from the other Persian Gulf countries, has relied more on the business elite than on family members, who have been excluded from key positions, to secure his power over the country. His successor will have to strive to secure the same legitimacy that the current Sultan has managed to gain. Moreover, the question raises whether also the next successor will keep the same absolute power in his hands or whether he will decide to separate State powers, given that although Oman has been largely untouched by the 2011 Arab Spring, unrest has kept on sweeping through the country throughout 2012 and 2013.[20]
