The Future of the British Monarchy 1: 2018 - 2022


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It is obvious that Prince Harry will not accept. That would be to betray his family.

He's already betrayed them. I was being facetious to a degree...... I doubt Harry would go that far, but it doesn't actually matter if he does, because it's clear how he feels about the Monarchy..........and his family.
 
:pigsfly:
You and me both, PetticoatLand, you and me both. I'm going to have to start using an umbrella every time I step outdoors now because we all know flying pigs are worse than pigeons. ;)

Well.. there's one thing that could happen. Should Harry jump on the Republic bandwagon publicly, I guess that the Queen could consider that treason enough to ask Parliament to strip him of his ducal title. Hmmm... food for thought there.
This might be what it takes. But I just don’t think he is going to be quiet. He is behaving in such an appalling way. I agree about the pigs:pigsfly::pigsfly::pigsfly:
 
Posts discussing Harry’s recent interview have been deleted. This thread is about the future of the British monarchy. Please stay on topic.
 
I'm not sure if this is the appropriate forum for this news but Republic is requesting that Prince Harry lead their mission to end the monarchy.



If Republic thinks having Prince Harry who (according to latest YouGov poll on 22nd April) has a -7 favourability rating amongst the British public, as the influencer to end the monarchy, then they are either having a laugh or just deluded. Judging by the poll and current situation, I don't think the UK government under the Conservatives would even consider a referendum, let alone the republic option would win :whistling:

I personally think Graham Smith is completely bitter and frustrated that the Oprah interview did not cause the general British public to "cancel" the royal family. :rolleyes:

Going back to Camilla Tominey's tweet, Robert Jobson actually replied with disappointment that Graham Smith decided to capitalise Prince Harry's mental health.
Robert Jobson @theroyaleditor
Replying to @CamillaTominey and @GrahamSmith_
That’s unlike @GrahamSmith_ to capitalise on somebody’s mental health issues. Prince Harry has said he has struggled with mental health issues for years. I thought Graham was a more sensitive soul. A tad cheap Graham, I’d expect more from an intelligent chap like you.
5:16 AM · May 14, 2021·Twitter for iPhone​
 
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At present Scotland appears to be split down the middle on the independence issue. In the latest election the SNP didn't win a majority & more Scots voted for parties that support the union. Then again not everyone who votes SNP/Green is a nationalist & not everyone who votes Lab/Con/Lib Dem is a unionist. So that's all as clear as mud. What is clear is that there is no great groundswell of massive majority support for leaving the UK as there was in the Irish election of 1918. At least not yet. Whatever happens it's a shame that people have become so divided over this issue in Scotland.

Maybe things look different outside the UK? After all the foreign media, especially if anti British, love to spin tales of doom.

If Scotland ever did become independent then that would be the end of a British monarchy & the reemergence of the 1707 status quo ante. How long Scotland would remain a monarchy however would be an interesting question. I'd wager not long. If only because the Scots would want a resident head of state & the monarchy would be seen as fundamentally English. And moreover southern English to boot.

The status of NI was settled by the Good Friday Agreement. The present status of NI can only alter if there is a majority for change in both NI & the R of I. So I'm not sure what is meant by there being a "need...to form at least some sort of unity". Peace was hard fought for & can too easily be lost. There is a delicate balance that outsiders tamper with at their peril.

What was the result of the elections if you add the votes for the other parties who support independence to the votes for the SNP and compare them to the votes for all the parties that support the union? I read that the pro-independence parties (SNP + Green party) actually did win a majority in the Parliament.

Is there more support for independence among younger voters? I also read that in Northern Ireland, the chances of reunification will grow in the future because the demographics are changing. I wonder if in Scotland it is the same.
 
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What was the result of the elections if you add the votes for the other parties who support independence to the votes for the SNP and compare them to the votes for all the parties that support the union? I read that the pro-independence parties (SNP + Green party) actually did win a majority in the Parliament.

Is there more support for independence among younger voters? I also read that in Northern Ireland, the chances of reunification will grow in the future because the demographics are changing. I wonder if in Scotland it is the same.

This is not really the place to discuss UK internal politics, but there are some who suggest that the next referendum on Scottish independence should take place in the rest of the UK, and let the majority decide whether Scotland should be kept in the union or not!
 
Okay. But if he accepted, he would go against his family and what it represents. Your father and brother are going to be kings. Harry cannot (or should not) join a group that defends a republic.

I imagine Meghan accepting to do that. But Harry didn't .... :whistling:

He can if he wants to....
 
Sturgeon’s SNP did indeed fall short of an absolute majority. However the Greens are allies of the SNP on many issues and more especially on an Independence referendum.

More details...


https://www.dw.com/en/scotland-snp-wins-4th-term-short-of-overall-majority/a-57472899

Thanks. After posting, I looked at the results and it seems that
pro-independence parties won a clear majority in the parliament.
pro-unionist parties won a very small majority of the votes in constituency elections.
pro-independence parties won a very small majority of the votes in the regional elections.

I couldn't find an analysis of votes by age group.


It seems to me that with such a 50/50 division, this question is not going to disappear and I wonder if the end of the current reign will have an effect on the statistics. Will more Scottish people feel less attached to the UK and be more ready to accept independence after Her Majesty's passing?
 
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This is not really the place to discuss UK internal politics, but there are some who suggest that the next referendum on Scottish independence should take place in the rest of the UK, and let the majority decide whether Scotland should be kept in the union or not!

I agree. I am only interested about the question in the context of the future of the monarchy.

I hope those people you mention are 'only' the extremists. If Scottish people voted for independence and English people voted to force them to stay in the UK, it would create a very difficult situation for the monarchy as an institution and the monarch in particular and it would not end well....
 
If Republic thinks having Prince Harry who (according to latest YouGov poll on 22nd April) has a -7 favourability rating amongst the British public, as the influencer to end the monarchy, then they are either having a laugh

I doubt that they think that for one minute. It'd just be huge publicity for them. Even saying it has got their name in the news, whereas normally no-one takes a blind bit of notice of them. Harry is so desperate for any sort of publicity - having claimed that he didn't want publicity - that he's probably thinking about it!! (That's a joke, before anyone takes it seriously.) Both he and they just want their names all over the media.
 
I agree. I am only interested about the question in the context of the future of the monarchy.

I hope those people you mention are 'only' the extremists. If Scottish people voted for independence and English people voted to force them to stay in the UK, it would create a very difficult situation for the monarchy as an institution and the monarch in particular and it would not end well....

I have a feeling the English would be glad to see the back of us.
The SNP claim at the moment that the queen would continue to be the head of state of an Independent Scotland.
Interestingly they refer to the queen not the throne or monarchy .
 
I have a feeling the English would be glad to see the back of us.
The SNP claim at the moment that the queen would continue to be the head of state of an Independent Scotland.
Interestingly they refer to the queen not the throne or monarchy .

but the queen wont be around forever, so if they leave, thats not really a solution. I think they'd be better to go for a republic...
 
but the queen wont be around forever, so if they leave, thats not really a solution. I think they'd be better to go for a republic...

I think Sturgeon's thinking is that she'd loose support for Independent Scotland if she outright said she wanted a republic right now but they'd wait until HM died and she's assuming there will be less enthusiasm with King Charles, like many in Australia assume Australia will become a republic for the same reason.

I doubt Harry's officially going to become a spokesperson for Republic but if he did, he would undoubtedly claim he's only doing it to help his family see the error of their lives.
 
This is not really the place to discuss UK internal politics, but there are some who suggest that the next referendum on Scottish independence should take place in the rest of the UK, and let the majority decide whether Scotland should be kept in the union or not!

That is not how it works. Imagine all Spaniards have to say if Catalonia indeed may leave the kingdom or not, after a victory for the independents in an official and recognized referendum.

It would mean that Galica, Castille, Andalucia, the Baleares, etc. denying what the Catalonians themselves want.

Imagine that a majority of the Scots wants to leave the Union. Then people in Cornwall, Kent or Wales say: "No way!". That is not how it works.

But... Good news for the monarchy: unlike in Catalonia, the Scots have no desire for a republic. As Sturgeon said: we would be proud to welcome Her Majesty The Queen of Scots in her capital of her free and independent Scotland.
 
What was the result of the elections if you add the votes for the other parties who support independence to the votes for the SNP and compare them to the votes for all the parties that support the union? I read that the pro-independence parties (SNP + Green party) actually did win a majority in the Parliament.

Is there more support for independence among younger voters? I also read that in Northern Ireland, the chances of reunification will grow in the future because the demographics are changing. I wonder if in Scotland it is the same.




It depends on how you add the votes. In Scotland, they use an Additional Member System where each voter may cast a constituency vote (in his/her electoral district) and a party list vote.


I don't remember the exact figures, but the pro-independence parties (SNP+Greens+Alba) were slightly below 50 % in the constituency vote and, I guess, about 50.1 % in the list vote (or something like that). Recent opinion polls actually show a majority in favor of the Union again in the specific question on whether Scotland should be independent or not.


Contrary to what many people think in the Continent, Brexit has actually made Scottish independence less likely in my humble opinion. Over 60 % of Scottish trade is with the rest of the UK. Leaving the UK and joining the EU (if Scotland joins the EU) would mean a hard border with the UK due to EU dogmatism (refusal to reach a common standards agreement with the UK for example or a plain attitude to "punish" the UK out of an irrational fear of giving the Brits any competitive advantage). Such hard border would be devastating to the Scottish economy and the lives of most Scottish families.



Scotland also has a very high fiscal deficit, which is financed by the rest of the UK. If it became independent., Scotland would have to endure years of strict fiscal austerity to meet the criteria to join the EU and, when it joined, it would have to join also the Eurozone, which, in the last referendum, the SNP ruled out, forcing them to make a U-turn now.
 
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It depends on how you add the votes. In Scotland, they use an Additional Member System where each voter may cast a constituency vote (in his/her electoral district) and a party list vote.


I don't remember the exact figures, but the pro-independence parties (SNP+Greens+Alba) were slightly below 50 % in the constituency vote and, I guess, about 50.1 % in the list vote (or something like that). Recent opinion polls actually show a majority in favor of the Union again in the specific question on whether Scotland should be independent or not.


Contrary to what many people think in the Continent, Brexit has actually made Scottish independence less likely in my humble opinion. Over 60 % of Scottish trade is with the rest of the UK. Leaving the UK and joining the EU (if Scotland joins the EU) would mean a hard border with the UK due to EU dogmatism (refusal to reach a common standards agreement with the UK for example or a plain attitude to "punish" the UK out of an irrational fear of giving the Brits any competitive advantage). Such hard border would be devastating to the Scottish economy and the lives of most Scottish families.



Scotland also has a very high fiscal deficit, which is financed by the rest of the UK. If it became independent., Scotland would have to endure years of strict fiscal austerity to meet the criteria to join the EU and, when it joined, it would have to join also the Eurozone, which, in the last referendum, the SNP ruled out, forcing them to make a U-turn now.

Thanks for confirming the statistics. That corresponds to what I read.

The rest of the post contains political opinions and is not connected to the monarchy, so I won't reply.
 
Scotland also has a very high fiscal deficit, which is financed by the rest of the UK. If it became independent., Scotland would have to endure years of strict fiscal austerity to meet the criteria to join the EU and, when it joined, it would have to join also the Eurozone, which, in the last referendum, the SNP ruled out, forcing them to make a U-turn now.


But isn't it so that Scotland have some assets they have to share with the rest of the Uk by now (like the North Sea oil) and that a lot of companies which are Scottish have their seats in London and this is where they pay their taxes?


I understand that a lot of Scots want their independance from England, as they only lost it when their king inherited England and went off to the richer side (just like Henri IV. did when he inherited France, Navarre lost it's independance and has no longer been heard off during the Bourbon-reign). And they still struggled for it from 1601 (inheritance of the English throne by King James IV Stuart of Scotland who had Tudor-blood from both is father's and mother's side)



We should not forget that Scotland was actually bankrupted by the failed Darien scheme, a scheme where the Scots had hoped to build a trade alliance with a new colony in Panama. And that the English parliament and the Dutch subjects of king William III had withdrawn their support, leaving the Scots to shoulder the cost of the project all alone. And when it failed, many Scots were ruined and the kingdom itself was on the verge of bankrupcy, only then to be saved by England for the prize of their independance. "Bought and sold for English gold" as Robert Burns described the way formerly opposing Scottish members of parliament were convinced to vote for the unity. Honi soit... or so.


So I actually can understand so many Scots wanting independance and a return to the old system, with the queen (and later the new king) of the UK being souvereigns of the Scots again.
 
That is not how it works. Imagine all Spaniards have to say if Catalonia indeed may leave the kingdom or not, after a victory for the independents in an official and recognized referendum.

It would mean that Galica, Castille, Andalucia, the Baleares, etc. denying what the Catalonians themselves want.

Imagine that a majority of the Scots wants to leave the Union. Then people in Cornwall, Kent or Wales say: "No way!". That is not how it works.


.


As a matter of fact, that is exactly what the Spanish constitutional court said, i.e., that Catalonia could only achieve independence by means of a national referendum where all Spaniards (Castilians, Galicians, Basque, etc.) had a vote. Surprising, isn't it?
 
But isn't it so that Scotland have some assets they have to share with the rest of the Uk by now (like the North Sea oil) and that a lot of companies which are Scottish have their seats in London and this is where they pay their taxes?


I understand that a lot of Scots want their independance from England, as they only lost it when their king inherited England and went off to the richer side (just like Henri IV. did when he inherited France, Navarre lost it's independance and has no longer been heard off during the Bourbon-reign). And they still struggled for it from 1601 (inheritance of the English throne by King James IV Stuart of Scotland who had Tudor-blood from both is father's and mother's side)



We should not forget that Scotland was actually bankrupted by the failed Darien scheme, a scheme where the Scots had hoped to build a trade alliance with a new colony in Panama. And that the English parliament and the Dutch subjects of king William III had withdrawn their support, leaving the Scots to shoulder the cost of the project all alone. And when it failed, many Scots were ruined and the kingdom itself was on the verge of bankrupcy, only then to be saved by England for the prize of their independance. "Bought and sold for English gold" as Robert Burns described the way formerly opposing Scottish members of parliament were convinced to vote for the unity. Honi soit... or so.


So I actually can understand so many Scots wanting independance and a return to the old system, with the queen (and later the new king) of the UK being souvereigns of the Scots again.

Let's be clear, in the 2014 referendum where it was yes or no, over 90% of People came out to vote. The answer was 45%..55%.

The recent Scottish election it was just over 60% voted and yes SNP won the most seats by a mile but the breakdown of the vote as it would be in a referendum a 2 way race in fact the SNP only got 50% of the vote.
So 60% of voters and the vote was split 50/50.
There is no vote on sovereignty as part of a referendum but if they gain independence they will drop the monarchy regardless of what they say just now.

PS. James v1 of Scotland did have Tudor blood but the monarchy became the House of Stuart when he ascended the English throne and became James 1 of England.
 
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There is no vote on sovereignty as part of a referendum but if they gain independence they will drop the monarchy regardless of what they say just now.


Yes I agree . This is what I wrote upthread.

SNP + Green had a majority in the previous Scottish Parliament so their majority in this one is not some sort of radical change. The Greens moreover did not go into the 2021 election campaigning for a second referendum in their manifesto. According to the latest polls only a minority of Green constituency voters want independence anyway. Politics as ever is nuanced.

All the independence question does is divide people. Like it did in Quebec & like it does in Catalonia. The possibility that the UK might break up seems to be reported almost with glee in some foreign media. I wonder why.:whistling:

I’ve not seen any evidence that suggests the next monarch would affect support for independence either way but it's an interesting question.
 
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The Good Friday agreement has already been changed for Brexit as it was meant to be an agreement of "partners in the EU" - which the Uk is no longer. As both parts of the UK and the Republic of Ireland inhabit the same island, it is difficult to organize a good solution for Northern Ireland and the Uk in the situation enforced by Brexit. A lot of the agreements in the Good Friday agreement was only possible because both the Uk and Ireland shared their outer frontiers, so in fact the Republic, Northern Ireland and the Uk were "as one" based on the EU regulations. Now they are not and there's a frontier right through Ireland again, which could (and probably will) lead to new violence. They need a solution here and it can't be complete seperation, I'm afraid.

The Good Friday Agreement could have been signed if one or neither of the two had been in the EU. Moreover a solution can be found so long as there are people of goodwill on all sides but talk of "some sort of unity" is intensely provocative to one section of the population.

That part of the population remains deeply loyal to the crown.
 
I understand that a lot of Scots want their independance from England

This makes no sense. It sounds as if Scotland is being run by England. Or is a colony of England. Is this how a complex issue is being reported in Germany? If so it's very worrying.
 
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I'm not sure what any of this has to do with the future of the British monarchy. I don't think anyone in Barcelona's worrying about the British monarchy. The French monarchs used the title King of Navarre as a subsidiary title, but that doesn't exactly have anything to do with the British monarchy. And the Darien Scheme was over 300 years ago, and not even Nicola Sturgeon's tried bringing it up.
 
As a matter of fact, that is exactly what the Spanish constitutional court said, i.e., that Catalonia could only achieve independence by means of a national referendum where all Spaniards (Castilians, Galicians, Basque, etc.) had a vote. Surprising, isn't it?

Well that's kind of what the Americans siad too, when the southern states wanted to secede from the Union...
 
I'm not sure what any of this has to do with the future of the British monarchy. I don't think anyone in Barcelona's worrying about the British monarchy. The French monarchs used the title King of Navarre as a subsidiary title, but that doesn't exactly have anything to do with the British monarchy. And the Darien Scheme was over 300 years ago, and not even Nicola Sturgeon's tried bringing it up.

Please do not give Nicola any ideas....
 
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