Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy


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Kitty1224 said:
In Spain I disagree that the monarchy is secure. It actually isn’t. No wonder they have to toe the line.
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It would help the discussion if that view was based on something factual, otherwise it's just a statement without much meaning.

I think you confuse 'toeing the line' with being sensitive to regional movements and separatists who will use every move you make to their advantage. That's a delicate balance to walk for a sovereign, but one that His Majesty manages quite well, and is respected for.

Spain is a formal society, and the upper class, with the King at the pinnacle, still speak quite formally and they may seem detached to many. However, faced with the alternative, in a country where most dislike politicians immensely, there is no real worry that a majority would ever want to elect another politician (or reality buffoon) as head of state, instead of keeping the system they know, and that they have known for centuries and centuries.
 
Denville said:
What can you tell about someone from videos.. Interviews, reading books and articles... yes but unless it is a very long video interview, I don't know if you can tell very much....
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Well why does she appear cold and distant?
 
Kitty1224 said:
Well why does she appear cold and distant?
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Since I've never seen a video of her I have no idea.....and I know little about her other than the basics, that she is a divorcee married to the King...
 
LadyRohan said:
It would help the discussion if that view was based on something factual, otherwise it's just a statement without much meaning.

I think you confuse 'toeing the line' with being sensitive to regional movements and separatists who will use every move you make to their advantage. That's a delicate balance to walk for a sovereign, but one that His Majesty manages quite well, and is respected for.

Scenturies.
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Is the Catalan crisis likely to affect the position of the monarchy? It seems as if Felipe has successfully avoided controversy over it....
 
Denville said:
Is the Catalan crisis likely to affect the position of the monarchy? It seems as if Felipe has successfully avoided controversy over it....
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I think it was stated earlier in this thread, but if the Catalan situation in any way affects the monarchy, it's most likely in a positive way. The debate about the future of Catalonia serves to strengthen the position of the King, because he is 1) the only one who can claim a moral mandate to speak for all Spain, in a land where politicians are widely disliked, and 2) should Catalonia be allowed to detach from Spain, the Spanish throne would be the only thing that could effectively insulate the rest of Spain from dissolving, and would serve as a rallying point for every other spaniard wishing to keep their country unified.

If one is awfully cynical, one could say that letting Catalonia go would strengthen the monarchy, by removing the most republican region in Spain from the union, and by the other reasons above, but regardless, the King would not want Catalonia to be lost, Spain would not be the same without Catalonia, and Catalonia would lose far, far more than they would gain by becoming an independent, outsider state in Europe, instead of being a prosperous part of Spain.
 
LadyRohan said:
Hear, hear. Most republics in Europe that function fairly well, such as Germany, Finland and Iceland, have a ceremonial president that has little to do with the daily running of the country, as is the case in constitutional monarchies. There is very little need to replace a hereditary sovereign, who is neutral politically and trained at their job from early years, with someone who must be elected and can never achieve neutrality like a sovereign, just for the sake of doing so. Executive republics, like the U.S and Russia, can never function as well as a parliamentary republic, because too much power is gathered in the hands of one person, and power corrupts, always, so you always end up with a flawed presidency in one way or another.

I totally agree with your comment LR for all the years of reading history and learning here about the different governments and how they operate that a constitutional monarchy is the best way to go. In viewing first hand what my country goes through for many many decades now, that the *Executive Republic* has forgotten about the very people that put them in power. I used to be big in volunteering for a party and then learned and saw what goes on...not anymore! Became very disillusioned quickly and left. It is not just our president and by that I mean *All Presidents* not just the sitting one for it is our entire *Congress* what makes and breaks this country for they are the ones that really yield the power in our government. A group of men and women that do not work together and bicker and fight over every little article that is on the table.

I personally think the Spanish reign of King Felipe is doing a remarkable job in keeping in touch with the people and working on their behalf.
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Kitty1224 said:
I believe the US is doing very well as a republic.
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IN your dreams it is doing very well. It all depends on a person's view of their government how old/young they are, if they have worked or volunteered to work for a party in their government come election time or not, how the elected officials in your area work for the people, and many other factors as to where our government is doing well. Being someone of an much older generation I have seen how much this country as changed. A good book to read on this subject is The Fall of the Roman Empire for it clearly IMHO reminds me of my country, so in time we will see what happens here.

Gads I can not believe some of the things that go on in this country, it just is a nightmare at times...........so we need change here now!
 
LadyRohan said:
I think it was stated earlier in this thread, but if If one is awfully cynical, one could say that letting Catalonia go would strengthen the monarchy, by removing the most republican region in Spain from the union, and by the other reasons above, but regardless, the King would not want Catalonia to be lost, Spain would not be the same without Catalonia, and Catalonia would lose far, far more than they would gain by becoming an independent, outsider state in Europe, instead of being a prosperous part of Spain.
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Thanks for explaining it quickly. I don't know much about it, but I wasn't sure if the Govt/Felipe were handling it well... I'm sure he would not want it lost but it could have some positive effects for him as the King... still, to preside over a loss of a region could hardly be beneficial to him or the Govt....
 
My thoughts...governments should be democratic. The details - monarchy, republic, whatever - are secondary and should be based on the will of the people. Because each country has its own history, customs, and traditions, each country will also have its own preferences. One form of democratic government is not necessarily better than other.

The future of the Spanish monarchy should and will be determined by the Spanish people.
 
Well keep in mind polls can be rather screwy at times. According to the polls this was just the opinions of almost 4,000 people in Spain between the ages of 16 to 64. For all we know maybe the most of the 37% are part of the fringe far left, Podemos, Catalan Separatists or just plain trolls who we all know don't like the monarchy. If almost 40% of the nation truly wanted to abolish the monarchy then Podemos would be the largest party in the Spanish parliament right now.

Keep in mind that the Spanish love to complain about almost anything including the monarchy when it comes to money, it costs about 7.8 million euros (About 10 million US dollars or 7 million British pounds) if you're curious.

Plus Podemos, the only republican party that isn't Catalonian, isn't exactly doing well in the polls with it looking like they could actually lose some seats. Also I smell a scandal coming about Pablo Iglesias recently buying a house for about 600,000 Euros, might I say hypocrisy and mismanagement of funding? So who knows maybe they might fall below 10% or maybe even below 1% in the next election which could do some good for the monarchists.

Also I think the Catalonian Separatist movement, one of the main threats against the monarchy at the moment may go south thanks to the new leader. He is a radicle, xenophobe and a staunch nationalist, might I remind you that the entire EU is against this sort of thing and that this could ruin what good will people outside of Spain have for the separatists.

What I'm saying is that yes things are a little rocky but we shouldn't worry too much.

-Frozen Royalist

P.S. On the bright side at least we don't have to worry about Belgium or Canada with the amount of support they have right now.
 
Frozen Royalist said:
Well keep in mind polls can be rather screwy at times. According to the polls this was just the opinions of almost 4,000 people in Spain between the ages of 16 to 64. For all we know maybe the most of the 37% are part of the fringe far left, Podemos, Catalan Separatists or just plain trolls who we all know don't like the monarchy. If almost 40% of the nation truly wanted to abolish the monarchy then Podemos would be the largest party in the Spanish parliament right now.

Keep in mind that the Spanish love to complain about almost anything including the monarchy when it comes to money, it costs about 7.8 million euros (About 10 million US dollars or 7 million British pounds) if you're curious.

Plus Podemos, the only republican party that isn't Catalonian, isn't exactly doing well in the polls with it looking like they could actually lose some seats. Also I smell a scandal coming about Pablo Iglesias recently buying a house for about 600,000 Euros, might I say hypocrisy and mismanagement of funding? So who knows maybe they might fall below 10% or maybe even below 1% in the next election which could do some good for the monarchists.

Also I think the Catalonian Separatist movement, one of the main threats against the monarchy at the moment may go south thanks to the new leader. He is a radicle, xenophobe and a staunch nationalist, might I remind you that the entire EU is against this sort of thing and that this could ruin what good will people outside of Spain have for the separatists.

What I'm saying is that yes things are a little rocky but we shouldn't worry too much.

-Frozen Royalist

P.S. On the bright side at least we don't have to worry about Belgium or Canada with the amount of support they have right now.
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If polls are based on a proper random sample of the national population, then, with a relatively small sample of 2,000 respondents or so, it is possible to accurately estimate the actual support for the republic within the poll's margin of error 95 % of the time. Without any other information to the contrary, I have no reason to doubt the IPSOS poll results.



Having said that, in practice, it would be extremely difficult to abolish the monarchy in Spain. The prerogatives of the Spanish Crown are laid out in Title II of the Spanish constitution. Amendments to Title II require:

  1. A two-third majority vote in each house of parliament on the proposed amendment's principle, followed by a dissolution of both houses and a general election;
  2. Following the general election, a second two-third majority vote in both of the newly elected houses on the actual text of the proposed amendment;
  3. And, last but not least, an automatic national popular referendum to ratify the constitutional amendment.
The biggest obstacle IMHO is not so much the popular referendum (where support for the republic would probably be closer to 40 % than 50 % based on recent polls), but the lack of support in parliament for a republican amendment as three out of the four main national parties (PP, PSOE, and Ciudadanos), at least for now, are publicly in favor of keeping the monarchy.
 
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an article in elmundo.es on felipe's 4 years of 'struggles and stress'

Felipe VI, cuatro años de pruebas y estrés | España

they mention felipe having had a bad 4 years of challenges, namely the corruption case surrounding inaki and cristina, the catalan crisis and his intervention on 3rd October and the bad relationships between key members of the royal family (as evidenced between sofia and letizia in easter).
 
Well other then the nitwits in Catalonia and the arrest of the King's brother in law, I don't really see too many threats to the monarchy. Yeah sure there is the Far Left Podemos and the Catalan Separatists right now but things have been rather decent otherwize in my opinion for the monarchy.

Mark My Wards Friends, things will improve, I am certain about it.

Besides we haven't really been seeing too many protests against the monarchy in Spain lately now have we? That and Podemos is just being Podemos in the end so whatever, they're not going to win the election anyway.

Abolishing the monarchy would be very, and I mean very difficult to do in the great nation of Spain. *Sigh* I really do wish Spain was a major power again, it is one of my favorite nations after all.

Maybe the Kingdom should also become a federation/confederation to help solve some of the issues, that ought to improve things for the monarchy significantly.

-Frozen Royalist
 
I think that monarchy might survive at least few decades to future. Felipe VI has restored much belief to monarchy after his ascension. But Spain has always been politically bit unpredictable and difficult. Much depends too how government handle Catalonia issue. Best solution would be federalisation of the kingdom or at least bigger autonomy to Catalonia. But this might be bit difficult. Rajoy made some idiotic mistakes with the issue so hopefully new PM is able fix things.
 
Kitty1224 said:
I hope the monarchy will be okay
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Why? Its just a form of government.. It may last in Spain or it may have had its day. I think it did help to ease the country from the old world to a more modern lifestyle and to get over the transition from Francoism.. but who can say if it will last>
 
Denville said:
Why? Its just a form of government.. It may last in Spain or it may have had its day. I think it did help to ease the country from the old world to a more modern lifestyle and to get over the transition from Francoism.. but who can say if it will last>
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I think the republican parties like Podemos were very clever to tie the republic vs monarchy debate to the national unity issue. If they can persuade the Spanish society that a federal republic is the only alternative to keep the country together, then they might be able to build a political and popular consensus for regime change.

Rephrasing it in a different way: if Spaniards had to make a choice between keeping the Royal Family, or keeping Catalonia as part of Spain, what would they choose ? Of course, the problem is that this "choice" may be a false one, created by Podemos, not least because there is no indication that Catalan separatistst would drop their demand for independence even if the monarchy fell.

One thing seems clear to me though. Contrary to the opinion of the monarchists on this forum, it was a big mistake for the Rajoy government to involve Felipe VI in the Catalan debate, forcing him to make his now infamous televised speech. It is hardly surprising that Podemos is now taking advantage of that mistake.
 
:previous:
The Spanish monarchy was restored because General Franco allowed it. The agreements made in the past can be void now. You are right pointing out that there can be a choice between Federal Republic of Spain or split. It is not tragic.

One would expect a democratic western country to show a proper democratic process even if it meant regime changes.
 
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Mbruno, millions of Spaniards think otherwise... the King has constitutional obligations and did what he had to do ... another thing is that others try to manipulate the situation and take advantage of it... but for millions of Spaniards it would have been worse if he had not said anything.

With the fall of the government of Rajoy, both the pro-independence and Podemos need a new enemy, someone to attack and that will allow them to remain the focus of attention ... and the new target is the king. The King is their easy target, because he does not have the capacity to respond or to refute all the nonsense they say.

The independentists hope that somehow the new government will save them, but at the same time they need to maintain the "war" with the State.

Pablo Iglesias is a true hypocrite, his new house of thousands of euros has put all his contradictions on the table. With the PSOE in power making social policies and in the media focus, Podemos is out of focus, is losing and will lose more voters who are going to return to the PSOE ... so they sell a more radical and demagogic discourse to see if it works

Last week in Tarragona King Felipe was applauded and cheered by the stadium ... the Catalan president booed ... Next week the Princess of Girona Awards will be held under the threat of radical protests from the independentists ... but they have not been able to prevent the awards from being held in Girona, or that Pau Gasol attends the event or the Roca cooks lend the foundation a space to celebrate the awards. The king goes to Catalonia, presides over events there, there are people who support him and also famous internationally known Catalans ... and the behavior of the independentists is increasingly radical and ridiculous... and the more normal the king acts, the more it will be.

At the moment, the strategy is not working very well, everyone knows that it is an easy strategy, a theater to be the center of attention ... and people start to be very bored.
 
janelarn said:
I can tell you about numerous properties that other monarchs have ... or royal families that benefit from favors from businessmen or businesses that they do without seeming corruption.
In Spain, that is UNADMISSIBLE.
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How can you claim that it is unadmissible in Spain (in contrary to unnamed countries) to have numerous properties and receive favors of business men while your emeritus king did just that on a large scale and has not been prosecuted for it?!

Apart from the Head of State, the king is the Captain General of the army, and his role, although constitutional, has much greater weight than in any other parliamentary monarchy. It's obvious.
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No, it's not. As it's obvious to you, I am sure you can explain it further so all of us might be able to understand where you are coming from. For example, how is his role carrying more weight than that of the head of state (or now his regent) in the constitutional/parliamentary monarchy of Liechtenstein?! Felipe should to be a puppet of the government in the Catalunya crisis.

Precisely because of these scandals, that perhaps in other monarchies would not have been considered scandals, Juan Carlos had to abdicate. Do not you know that the king is Felipe VI and that he never gave a scandal?
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Dating an underwear model and marrying a divorced republican who from the start seemed to have a rather tense relationship with the rest of the family... not sure that he is completely scandal-free and always made the best choices. I do agree that Felipe in general is doing a great job (except for the Catalunya crisis imo - but I know people differ on that as well) just like his colleagues that ascended the throne in the last several years.

And what scandals exactly do you think would be overlooked in which specific monarchies that make the Spanish monarchy superior in your eyes?

It was very funny to see how the king's hunt turned into a scandal ... when all the royal families participate in this kind of affairs. If I remember correctly Harry and Meghan made a trip for a safari, come to Spain, to the estate of the Duke of Wellington for hunting ... etc ... The Danish royal family and their annual hunting of cubs ... The lovers ... if it were for lovers, there would not be a single king.
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So, which member of another European royal family hunted elephants with their lover?

And please enlighten me on all the lovers of the current and former grand duke of Luxembourg; the lovers of queen Beatrix; those of king Felipe and king Willem-Alexander; just to name a few?

He surely is not the only one (king Carl Gustaf is another example) but to pretend that he is just doing what ALL of them are doing is far beside the truth. And it's clearly not as acceptable any more as it apparently previously was; times change and Juan Carlos didn't change with it but continues to think that he has the right to all kinds of privileges that others don't have as he is the (emeritus) king.

The problem has been a rude daughter, like Cristina and a son-in-law delinquent in jail ... but it is in unpredictable and can happen to any family
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I don't think Juan Carlos is that innocent compared to his son-in-law. It seems that Iñaki copied his father-in-laws behavior and got caught as he isn't a 'blood member' of the family. It's quite hypocrite to pretend it was just Iñaki. It is part of a system within the royal family. Felipe was smart enough to see the risk it brought to the Casa Real and cut them off - although I am not convinced that he didn't know about any of the shady dealings earlier on.
 
Blog Real said:
The King has achieved in its first four years of reign the best valuation of the Monarchy since its restoration, according to the survey conducted by GAD3 for ABC, which gives it a 75.3 percent popularity.

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-logr...-desde-restauracion-201808052317_noticia.html
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It is interesting that Queen Sofía has a 76.2 % approval rating, which is actually marginally higher than King Felipe's. Meanwhile, Queen Letizia's approval rating is only 58.1 %, which is slightly better than King Juan Carlos (54.7 %).
 
Mbruno said:
It is interesting that Queen Sofía has a 76.2 % approval rating, which is actually marginally higher than King Felipe's. Meanwhile, Queen Letizia's approval rating is only 58.1 %, which is slightly better than King Juan Carlos (54.7 %).
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The evaluation of the emeritus Sofía is not at all relevant, since she has nothing to say or do at present. It is a past figure and so the Spaniards see it.
JC is important, because he could drag his son ... but still he keeps
The important thing is the evaluation of the only character that matters! EL REY FELIPE VI! ... The juancarlistas would never think that he would be more popular than JC ... and that is that Felipe is an honest, honest, good man ... and that is More solid than being nice. In addition, Felipe is perceived as a great statesman who leaves our name, that of Spain very high nationally and internationally
 
Our beloved King Philip VI, reaches in a recent account, a 75.3 percent popularity ... the highest ever of a king since the survey, obviously.
 
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