Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy


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The EU really is looking 'like a rabbit caught in the headlights' over this...

It cannot support illegal referenda in one of its member states, and certainly doesn't want Europe to splinter into 90 odd mini states in the near future [which is likely to happen if Catalonia wins independence]. Others will demand the same, Flanders, Corsica, the Basque Country. The list of potential 'statelets' is ENDLESS.
Equally it is hemorrhaging support amongst those who are anti the 'status-quo' especially Millennials who imagine 'independence' for their region IS Nirvana and that the Nation State is 'Fascist'
The sudden hatred for the EU is very noticeable amongst the Scottish Nationalists...and [given its lack of support for Catalonia] is likely to be replicated amongst secessionists across this Continent.
 
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Hmmm... interesting perspective though it is not uncommon to see comments about the lack of leadership and criticism of the King and Rajoy.

Me as a government person though see the opposite. I was so-so with Rajoy but now see him favorably. Puigdemont wanting to negotiate shows who's winning in all this. You don't negotiate when you are winning. I admire Rajoy's strong stance in the issue and his refusal to negotiate. You simply don't negotiate with people whose core objective is to slice out a chunk of your territory and who choose to do so by marketing Catalonia as an oppressed region.

Same with the King and his speech. I don't know but I see it all as very "Spanish" so nothing about Rajoy's move or the King's speech, or the guardias and policia's actions against the referendum voters and organizers strike me as particularly shocking. You really, really do not mess with Madrid.

We shall see, if the King and Rajoy manage to preserve Spain as it is, then they would have done a great job. We see in recent history the lengths Spain will go to to keep the state in tact.
 
PetticoatLane said:
The lack of leadership on the part of all involved is utterly embarrassing and shameful.

I include in this list the king, whose odd hectoring and schoolmasterish style in telling the Catalans off helped not one iota, and of course the European Union. We have been told time and time again that the whole point of the EU is to ensure this kind of thing doesn't happen. Its record so far on this question is stunning in its utter ineptitude.
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To me poor leadership all around was a foregone conclusion after the crisis happened because it’s the same group of people who allowed things to get to a crisis point in the first place. The announcement of the referendum didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s not like a massive earthquake or a nuclear accident where a period of chaos and official ineptitude is understandable.

There’s no solution as such to the Catalan situation and I guess it’s possible that things are going to have to completely blow up before rebuilding can start but IMO there were plenty of opportunities over the past couple of years for any of the official actors on this stage to rise to the occasion and find a workable way forward. This would involve compromise and hard sells to both sides and no one would come out completely happy but that’s how life works if you’re trying to avoid a catastrophe.
 
First of all, a king doesn't "lead" in a parliamentary monarchy.

Second, Felipe's speech made the case for Spain's position. After Oct 1, Spain's image took a beating abroad and Spanish people were not sure what would happen. His speech rallied support for Spain both internally and abroad. I was taken aback by Felipe's hard stand. But judging from the reaction of my Spaniard friend and reports from Spain, it was well received by Spaniards. Catalans who support independence did not like it but Catalans who want to stay in Spain liked it.

Third, his position wasn't different from his father's in 1981 during the coup: "The Crown stands by the Constitution." He swore to uphold the Constitution twice: Once when he turned 18. Once when he was proclaimed king. Upholding the Constitution and guarding the unity of Spain are his duties according to Spanish Constitution. If he doesn't fulfill them, most Spaniards would start asking what they need him for.
 
camelot23ca said:
To me poor leadership all around was a foregone conclusion after the crisis happened because it’s the same group of people who allowed things to get to a crisis point in the first place. The announcement of the referendum didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s not like a massive earthquake or a nuclear accident where a period of chaos and official ineptitude is understandable.

There’s no solution as such to the Catalan situation and I guess it’s possible that things are going to have to completely blow up before rebuilding can start but IMO there were plenty of opportunities over the past couple of years for any of the official actors on this stage to rise to the occasion and find a workable way forward. This would involve compromise and hard sells to both sides and no one would come out completely happy but that’s how life works if you’re trying to avoid a catastrophe.
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Absolutely agree!!

Latest news:
Two Catalan independence leaders taken into custody by Spanish national court

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...leaders-taken-custody-spanish-government/yyyy
 
From 'El Confidencial'

A Deputation of the Grandees of Spain, a group of some 400 noblemen, proclaims its "full loyalty" to the King and his defence of the unity of Spain, "which today is threatened by those who, falsifying the past and belittling the laws, threaten to destroy so much of the life we have in common ".
"Catalonia took the name of Spain before its name as a "Hispanic Brand," and, over the centuries, "together with the other Hispanic territories formed the oldest nation in Europe", emphasized in an institutional declaration that affirms: "From that moment, all the Spaniards, of any origin, have been partners of a same collective History".
 
wyevale said:
From 'El Confidencial'

A Deputation of the Grandees of Spain, a group of some 400 noblemen, proclaims its "full loyalty" to the King and his defence of the unity of Spain, "which today is threatened by those who, falsifying the past and belittling the laws, threaten to destroy so much of the life we have in common ".
"Catalonia took the name of Spain before its name as a "Hispanic Brand," and, over the centuries, "together with the other Hispanic territories formed the oldest nation in Europe", emphasized in an institutional declaration that affirms: "From that moment, all the Spaniards, of any origin, have been partners of a same collective History".
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Oldest nation in Europe? Given that the unification of Spain was ratified as late as 1715 I'd say its one of the younger nation states of Western Europe.
 
This article gives a real in-depth history of Catalonia's independence movement, the parties make up the coalition, why the right wing party and a Marxist party became bed fellows, their motivation, how Madrid/Rajoy mishandled it... It also explains why Madrid justifiably refuses mediation. It's the best articulated and objective article I've read so far on the subject.

https://www.fastcompany.com/4047951...sion-movement-if-you-were-horrified-by-brexit

After knowing all the parties involved, especially CUP, I'm fearing for Catalonia.
 
Tomorrow could well be one of the most important days in the history of Spain, and of its monarchy...
Lets hope it is not one of the most violent...
 
The Spanish constitution works perfectly well, has a process to carry out the withdrawal of autonomous Community management, this is not automatic, and has a time. Initially this history of independence,it had lot of support, but in less of one month, more than 700 companies have left Catalonia, some important, some even with an antiquity of centuries, have left, This has caused that many followers of the independence , have decided to abandon the demonstrations and others, because their jobs is in dangerous
 
BELTRANEJA said:
The Spanish constitution works perfectly well, has a process to carry out the withdrawal of autonomous Community management, this is not automatic, and has a time. Initially this history of independence,it had lot of support, but in less of one month, more than 700 companies have left Catalonia, some important, some even with an antiquity of centuries, have left,
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Which, if true, should be almost as alarming to Madrid as the possibility of Catalonian independence. If Catalonia succeeds in obtaining independence both Catalonia and Spain lose. If Catalonia remains part of Spain but struggles with social unrest and an economic downturn the rest of Spain will suffer as well. I get the impression that some feel the rest of Spain will somehow win if Catalonia loses. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I don’t think we can even begin to quantify yet how damaging these past few weeks have been for Spain - everything from the future of its monarchy to its economic prospects to its image abroad could be affected medium to long term, along with other consequences we can’t even envision yet. It seems to me the government and the Catalonians are engaged in a high stakes game of chicken. I’m sure it feels like the right thing to do at the moment. I’d be interested in hearing their thoughts twenty years from now when they and their children are still picking up the pieces from everything they’ve broken so needlessly.
 
Whilst I appreciate the many articles of the Catalan crisis being put on this thread, I do believe they are off-topic. This thread should, IMO, focus on issues relating to the Future of the Spanish monarchy, and not domestic political matters. Perhaps the moderators can opine.
 
muriel said:
Whilst I appreciate the many articles of the Catalan crisis being put on this thread, I do believe they are off-topic. This thread should, IMO, focus on issues relating to the Future of the Spanish monarchy, and not domestic political matters. Perhaps the moderators can opine.
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Agree, this is more about "the future of Spain" than "the future of the spanish monarchy"
 
Maybe a new thread something like Felipe and the Catalonia crisis? Because whatever happens there, will have an impact on casareal.

Latest news:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/21/spain-prepares-to-seize-powers-from-catalonia

The Spanish government has suspended Catalonia’s autonomy and will
introduce direct rule from next Saturday as the country sinks further into its worst constitutional crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1977.
After an emergency cabinet meeting, and citing the Catalan government’s “conscious and systematic rebellion and disobedience”, Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, said he was invoking article 155 of the constitution to “restore the rule of law, coexistence, the economic recovery and so that elections could be held in normal circumstances”.
Pending senate approval next week, the government of Carles Puigdemont will be stripped of its powers, with its functions assumed by the relevant ministries in Madrid. Early elections would then be held within six months, Rajoy said.
“We are not ending Catalan autonomy, but we are relieving of their duties those who have acted outside the law,” Rajoy said, without detailing which Catalan institutions would come under direct rule. It is expected that the interior ministry, and therefore the police, would be one.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Maybe a new thread something like Felipe and the Catalonia crisis? Because whatever happens there, will have an impact on casareal.

Latest news:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/21/spain-prepares-to-seize-powers-from-catalonia

The Spanish government has suspended Catalonia’s autonomy and will
introduce direct rule from next Saturday as the country sinks further into its worst constitutional crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1977... [snipped]
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Given the situation in the international arena, the Catalan referendum was ill-times and ill-executed. Nether Russia nor China can support the referendum. The Brussels obkom can not allow fragmentation of any EU country at this point in time. A lot depends on what EU will look like in 10-20 years ( I mean the concept "two speed Europe") and how fast the aforementioned concept will get into gear.

Casareal will not be affected by the situation. King Felipe has to follow the government's line. It remains to be seen whether or not Spain will use General Franco's methods to quell the unrest.
 
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What a mess ! What will the Catalan civil servants, including the Catalan police, do now ? Will they follow orders from the self-proclaimed Catalan republic or from the national government of Spain which is about to impose direct rule from Madrid ?

There are also two different proposals for elections, one by the separatists to elect a National Assemby to draft a new constitution for the Catalan republic, and another by the Spanish government to elect a new regional parliament of Catalonia under the Spanish constitution. I don't see how to reconcilie those two positions and hold any kind of election in this climate.
 
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I can see no resolution ahead, the two parties being ABSOLUTELY opposed to one another, with irreconcilable differences.
What will the EU do ? Will any EU states recognise this 'rogue state'. Will Russia, will the US, will the UN ?
 
I wonder will we have another empty week of activities next week from the Royal House,such a terrible mess.
 
wyevale said:
I can see no resolution ahead, the two parties being ABSOLUTELY opposed to one another, with irreconcilable differences.
What will the EU do ? Will any EU states recognise this 'rogue state'. Will Russia, will the US, will the UN ?
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There is no way the EU will recognize Catalonia. Partly because no one wants to antagonize the Spanish government and partly because EU has enough problems with Brexit as it is, but first and foremost because that will only embolden other separatist movements.

Russian has no interests in Catalonia, even though it, like the rest of Spain is a popular tourist destination for Russians.
Russia has no interest in antagonizing Spain, there is nothing to be gained from that.
USA will not support Catalonia. USA has no interest in weakening a NATO country like Spain.
China then? Forget it! China has problems with separatists out west, no need to encourage anyone. Not to mention Taiwan. China can hardly support Catalonia and still consider Taiwan a Chinese province.

So Catalonia has no friends, no support and hardly any international sympathy.
The sympathy the separatist movement got after the pretty heavy handed way the Spanish government handed the referendum has been squandered away, simply because the separatists have no long term policy. They only thought one move (the referendum) ahead. And now they simply don't know what to do and say. - And that does not impress anyone in power!
Even the foreign public view has shifted, after the foreign media actually got around to investigate the facts and now the separatists are left standing like bumbling amateurs.

- The best thing the Spanish government can do now, it to quietly take control and be as restrained as possible. The ball is now on the field of the separatists, if they overreact they lose the little foreign sympathy they have left. If they keep fumbling around they will stop being taken remotely serious.
The best card the Spanish government has is the separatist leadership.
 
The United Kingdom, and France [I believe] have already said the same as the Russian Federation, and will not recognise Catalonia as an independent entity.

Ms Nicola Sturgeon [First Minister of the devolved Government of Scotland, and a Scottish Nationalist] certainly WILL. But since her govt has NO jurisdiction on external and foreign affairs, such 'recognition' is utterly meaningless...
 
Catalonia crisis: Donald Tusk says 'nothing changes' for EU over 'independence'
 
And now what will happen? I'm worried and I think this could have consequences. We're going to have to wait and see what happens.
 
The difference with the Scottish situation is that in Spain the nation, the people and the territories of the kingdom are one and indivisible according the01978 Constitution. A minority in Catalonia wants to break away, one-sided, from the unitary state.|

Scotland at the other side is no part of an unitary state but one of the parts of the United Kingdom ánd the Referendum was democratically approved by the national Parliament in Westminster in which representants of the whole Union approved the Referendum Bill.

From a legalistic view, the actions of the Catalonian Government borders that of a coup d'état in a part of Spain, withdrawing it from the authority of the national state and then the legal Government can do little else than to impose their authority once again.
 
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The US State Departments view -
 

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Muhler said:
... [snipped]
Russian has no interests in Catalonia, even though it, like the rest of Spain is a popular tourist destination for Russians.
Russia has no interest in antagonizing Spain, there is nothing to be gained from that. ...
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Antagonise is a strong word. Spain has no warm/friendly feelings towards Russian Federation. It does like money brought by Russian tourists and rich Russians. Russia has no particular compassion for Madrid. On a different note, Spain has its own personal Kosovo. It was one of the countries that opened "Pandora's box" in 2008.
 
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Apparently, the Scottish government has issued a statement saying it " respects and understands" the decision of the Catalan parliament, but did not explicitly recognize the Catalan republic , Recognition in this case would have been moot anyway as Scotland is not a sovereign state in international law.
 
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