Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy


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This generation, the next or the next after that, sooner or later I dont see any of the european monarchies to remain, Spain might be among the first to go.


This is an ending that has been predicted ever since the end of the First World War; yet a century later all of the monarchies that survived the post-WWI period are still in place, precisely because of their ability to re-invent themselves, and successfully respond to those very tasks which you question they will be able to in the coming generation.. In fact, the peculiar thing about the crisis that European economies and societies are currently undergoing, is that while it has enhanced questioning of the role of politicians elected with popular vote, it has rather led large majorities in the monarchical states to esteem stability in these societies as represented by their monarchies (I was reading a good analysis about this on the web a few weeks ago which unfortunately I can't find right now..) In no monarchical country -other than Spain- in Europe today is the monarchy weeker than what it was 10 years ago -and that includes not only the 'comeback' of the British RF's popularity, but also the way that the Swedish one has come through its own problems, or even the esteem that the institution continues to enjoy in otherwise rapidly-disintegrating Belgium..

As for Spain, I agree it is a whole different case -where the monarchy was restituted while the monarchical culture had eclipsed, and has been solely based ever since on the popularity of its members, rather than on the roots of the institution in Spanish society and history or anything such..
Yet I still don't see what causes such alarm -yes, the King has had a bad year (for most of which he only has himself to blame), but what tangible sign has there been that there is a strong and vibrant republican movement or agenda in Spanish politics at the moment? (In fact I feel that until the hunting affair, they were handling even his son in law's scandal quite descently in the eyes of the public..) Don't mix it with separatism -this has been there for much longer and is not primarily targeting the monarchy, but the Spanish state per se..
Of course I am not from Spain and I have a very selective picture of what is going on here; so I wish to ask those who feel otherwise to substantiate it.
 
Would Spain even survive the turbulence of overthrowing the monarchy? If such drastic changes were to happen would it not be likely that Catalonia and perhaps other provinces would decide to go it alone?
 
The Spiegel article hits it right on the point.

Spaniards are not monarchists in the way Britons or other Northern Europeans are; with Spanish society having entered modernity in the 20th century without the monarchy being part of its institutional structure and culture, the link went amiss. When the monarchy was restored it was not based on legitimacy stemming from historical or cultural past (perhaps ignoring the role that these factors could have on its solidification in modern Spanish society far more than what it should, but that's a different discussion), but on the personality of Juan Carlos, his role in restoring and securing democracy and how well he and his family functioned within it. It seems that the royal house had chosen to embed its role in modern Spanish culture, consciousness and society through that road alone -and possibly, if things had kept the way they were for another 20 or 30 years, this might have been the case. But so far, for the 40 years that have passed since the restoration of democracy, it remained for most part a personal, rather than institutional bond -relying on how well the members of the royal family perfomed their role.

Then the crisis erupted, the whole structure of the Spanish state undergoes questioning and challenges of legitimacy, and the monarchy could not be spared of the climate -at least to some degree, even if just moderate in the beginning. I think most would agree that the popularity of both the institution and the king survived pretty decently both scandals concerning his sons-in-law and his daughters' affairs with them. This proves that they were not teleologically meant to be 'swept' by the crisis..

And then, this comes up -the Botswana affair and all described and intervened since. Enormously sad and even hard to believe as it may be, that this whole bond which had led the Spaniards only a few years ago to vote the King in a popular newspaper as 'the greatest figure of their history' (an obvious emotional exaggeration) would demise so swiftly, it is nonetheless true. As is the fact that they (the royals), and particularly the King, have NO ONE to blame for all this but themselves. The 'incident' last year was more than a mistake -it was utterly stupid. He behaved, while a whole country was raging in a crisis, and in the midst of an era where celebrities find it hard to keep any secret, like a 19th century (or even older) monarch who can lead a life completely irrelevant to that which his subjects know of him, and completely unaccountable for it all.

I guess they have to pay the bill now. This might range from falling from grace in the eyes of a good part of the population for a good period (with politicians probably to follow in questioning the monarchy); the King abdicating in favor of his son -if the latter manages to pull through the storm better than his father-; or even, sadly, abolition.

The only thing that might work in their favor, is that while opposing public sentiment fluctuates, institutions which share some support in their respective societies (ans I hope and believe that the monarchy will retain support among a good portion of Spanish society no matter what) are not so easy to dissolve. The debate and the process is hard, requires commitment from those against them, and is rather divisive for public life. I can't see indeed why Spanish society with all its problems right now would choose to go down that road at this moment in history.

Should they still have a period of grace ahead, they better work a plausible scenario to improve their lot -whether that means passing the ball smoothly and with a good excuse to the next generation, or, somehow, restoring the prestige lost.

If their brains are not fit for responding to such a challenge, or in fact for much more than last year's behavior, then they simply have it coming...
 
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Fresh news about new polls:

Support for the King falls, especially among the young.
The Prince has an aproval rating among citizens well above his father.

article:
Traductor de Google

The poll. This is about colectives and individuals, I mean, Spaniards has been asked to valore (aproved/disaproved) groups such as doctors, Army, University, ONG´s, lawyers, television, the Church, of course gobernment and political parties...and the King and the Prince. They are in a pink colour.
The King, at almost the same level as government, banks and Church :whistling:
http://ep00.epimg.net/politica/imag...65264319_847004_1365275659_sumario_grande.png
 
Another article, with interesting contributions to understand the current crisis situation in Spain at every level, but especially about the Monarchy:

What is in crisis and what keeps Spain.
What keeps society away from going to chaos is the strenght of civil society.

Traductor de Google

PD: I have to apologize. I know Google Translator doesn´t make great translations from Spanish to English. If anybody knows a better online translator, I would be grateful if you meke me know :flowers:
 
And more:
Traductor de Google

About the Monarchy/Republic debate: Traductor de Google

This last article strenghten my personal opinion that, if the Monarchy wants to continue being the political system in Spain, the King must abdicate soon. If things continue like they are they´re now, we´ll see many more articles like this one in the next months.

Things are changing very fast, I think.
 
:previous:

Annie S - thank you for all this info. Is any alternative being proposed to the monarchy? And is it the monarchy or Juan Carlos?
 
:previous:

Annie S - thank you for all this info. Is any alternative being proposed to the monarchy? And is it the monarchy or Juan Carlos?

What do you mean with if is it the Monarchy of Juan Carlos?

If you mean if it is the Monarchy or just King Juan Carlos the problem to the ones that have written those articles, I think it depends of the article (and the writer).

One of them (the last one I´ve mentioned) is clearly favouring a Republic as the neccessary change to the current situation.

The others (the ones that position themshelves) are more in favour of an abdication for now. At least, that´s what they insinuate in their articles.
 
I've said it in another thread, what is the alternative for a monarchy? The parties are not interested in changing the constitution at all because their own shortcomings might be exposed by an elected Head of State. There is so much nepotism going on and it's convenient to have the royals who take the heat or deflect with the nice pictures etc from the parties' problems.

Question is, do the royals want to spend their lives being looked at like zoo animals as cash cows for the media, take the heat for political shortcomings or be bullied or booed at by the public?

In general, I don't see Spain so much as a monarchy but rather as a republic whose Head of State happens to be a monarch.

Spaniards used to be Juancarlists and I dont see where all the Felipistas should be coming from. So its basically a stillstand for the countrie's development, you might end up with a monarch who is more or less tolerated but not popular because the system proves unchangable.

The Spanish weren't even able to change the constitiution in order to have the firstborn as King or Queen, unlike other European countries, very embarrassing in the 21st century, where men and women are supposed to be equal.
 
Spaniards used to be Juancarlists and I dont see where all the Felipistas should be coming from. So its basically a stillstand for the countrie's development, you might end up with a monarch who is more or less tolerated but not popular because the system proves unchangable.

From El Pais:
This credit plummeting citizen now also affects the figure of the King: a novelty as disturbing as untimely. For nearly three decades, King Juan Carlos took systematically in the top listings such citizen evaluation. With case Noos (which came to be added the unfortunate trip to Botswana) the degree of detachment, and even angry citizen, with the head of state has not only grown, especially in the case of younger (including King evaluative balance has now been in a spectacular -42). Are you at risk the monarchy? Rather it seems to be producing a rapid replacement of the hitherto dominant juancarlismo for Felipismo thriving.


Indeed, the wear of image that is hurting the King (which increasingly seems less easily reversible) is presented together with a good basic stability assessment citizen deserves the Prince Philip, who in this wave of Barometer gets a balance +28 (-13 against the King: 41 points away). In addition, seven out of 10 citizens believe that Philip is already sufficiently prepared to exercise fully guaranteed as head of state, and a similar proportion believes that Don Juan Carlos should set a date-not far-to hand it down. All this, of course, while it is recognized and appreciated, by an ample majority formidable mode that King has operated for so many years and so complex. It is an open question whether, at some point and in case of referral, this wear-now controlled by the Crown, may also end up affecting the figure of the Prince.
Objetive points.
 
Fresh news about new polls:

Support for the King falls, especially among the young.
The Prince has an aproval rating among citizens well above his father.

article:
Traductor de Google
And the Prince's approval rating is falling as well, just not as dramatically as his father's and despite the fact that he did not provide any scandals.
This does indeed not look good for the monarchy in Spain.
 
Are there reliable numbers about the percentage of Spaniards supporting the monarchy?

While I have no doubt that Felipe has become more popular than his father, is this in general or only among those people who are pro-monarchy anyway?
 
:previous: The first poll is divided between PP (conservative) voters and PSOE (liberals) voters, also between ages.

The results are very different if you look at each group.
 
And more:
Traductor de Google

About the Monarchy/Republic debate: Traductor de Google

This last article strenghten my personal opinion that, if the Monarchy wants to continue being the political system in Spain, the King must abdicate soon. If things continue like they are they´re now, we´ll see many more articles like this one in the next months.

Things are changing very fast, I think.

Thanks for all your links and updates Annie,I really hope the king and royal family can overcome this very turbulent period and maintain the Spanish Monarchy.

These are very difficult and drak days for the Spanish Borbóns,things are not looking good but I can't see any benefit in swapping a King for a President right now for Spain!
 
Even the Economist raises the question of an abdication:

At a recent royal dinner for international Olympic officials attended by our correspondent, the king, Princess Cristina and her sporting husband (an Olympic handball double-medal winner) were conspicuously absent. Prince Felipe, standing in for his convalescent father, was self-assured and knowledgeable on the day's topic. He is obviously prepared for the job. But will his father stand down?

... conspicuously absent ...

Europe's royal families: Should the Spanish king abdicate too? | The Economist
 
Thanks for "The Economist"´s article, Avicenna ;)
I´m so tired of reading the same old, same old from the Spanish media, but it´s always interesting learning how they´re talking about it in other countries.
 
I would read that as "boring article about some boring officials - how can I spice it up and get some interest?"

as for conspicuously absent - I thought JC was still recovering from his back operation, and (generally speaking) I thought that Inaki and Cristina lived and worked in the US and would not necessarily have been there.

Were they invited, expected and failed to turn up or is this more journalese.
 
I would read that as "boring article about some boring officials - how can I spice it up and get some interest?"

as for conspicuously absent - I thought JC was still recovering from his back operation, and (generally speaking) I thought that Inaki and Cristina lived and worked in the US and would not necessarily have been there.

Were they invited, expected and failed to turn up or is this more journalese.

Cristina & Inaki returned to Spain last summer, because Inaki wanted to prepare for his likely trial / Telefonica wanted him to take a break.
 
Even the Economist raises the question of an abdication:

At a recent royal dinner for international Olympic officials attended by our correspondent, the king, Princess Cristina and her sporting husband (an Olympic handball double-medal winner) were conspicuously absent. Prince Felipe, standing in for his convalescent father, was self-assured and knowledgeable on the day's topic. He is obviously prepared for the job. But will his father stand down?

... conspicuously absent ...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2013/04/europes-royal-families

This is a classic hyperbole by Economist.
Come on, any person who underwent a recent surgery will be absent, and so will be any couple facing court charges.
And when a King is absent, for whatever reason, it will obviously be "conspicuous".
And any Crown Prince standing in for the monarch will obviously be "self-assured and Knowledgable" about that day's topic.
And any heir working full-time for over a decade will obviously be "well-prepared" for the job.
These are the most natural things, which dont even need a specific mention.
But simply highlighting them a lot and then hinting at abdication is just ridiculous..
 
The monarchy doesnt fall because of one demonstration but it is no surprise that it is easier to "blame" the monarchy rather than the politicans or be realistic about the situation they are in.

I'm not very knowledgeable about Spanish politics but from what I have read recently the real risk is that in losing the monarchy, Spain as a single entity could be lost as the regions strive for independence. And all that would mean is that for the sme population there would be even more government costs and no economy of scale.

So I agree with Royalistbert - it doesn't look good for the country


Question - how many people were in that demonstration?
 
Multitudinaria marcha por la III República en Madrid

Nothing to fear ...for the moment.

the april 14 is the annual spanish republican concil. There is the same demonstration every year. It's hardly a spontaneous protest !!
The only thing is that they were a bit more than usual this year.
 
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The monarchy doesnt fall because of one demonstration but it is no surprise that it is easier to "blame" the monarchy rather than the politicans or be realistic about the situation they are in.

I'm not very knowledgeable about Spanish politics but from what I have read recently the real risk is that in losing the monarchy, Spain as a single entity could be lost as the regions strive for independence. And all that would mean is that for the sme population there would be even more government costs and no economy of scale.

So I agree with Royalistbert - it doesn't look good for the country


Question - how many people were in that demonstration?
According to this French news site, more than 8 000 people .
Espagne : des milliers de manifestants demandent une république - Le Point
Spain: thousands of protesters demand a republic - The Point
 
8000 isnt many. We've had demonstrations and marchs in the UK in the past running into 100,000's and governments haven't fallen.

Nico quote: the april 14 is the annual spanish republican concil. There is the same demonstration every year. It's hardly a spontaneous protest..."

These are the "already converted" - its when more people join the republican movement it might get interesting.

Also, the media in the Uk do cover worldwide news and the problems within the SRF regarding the corruption case have been mentioned by the BBC, Times, Telegraph etc. This protest hasnt been mentioned at all. The focus at the moment is Portugal's economic woes and the coach crash in Belgium that killed 5.
 
Nico is right. 14th April is the anniversary of the II Spanish Republic proclamation (the II Republic lasted from 1931 to the Civil War in 1936).

It´s the day that the republican movements do mobilizations. It happens every year. But this year, there are more people than usual (nothing we couldn´t have guessed, on the other hand).
 
As discussed, 8000 isn´t that much.
Given the last 12 months news and scandals, it is not really surprising, whereas I do not see a drama here - yet.
Annus Horribilis for Spain, but things will change as well..... so let´s wait and see, what the next 12 months will bring.
BYe Bine
 
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