Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[ANNIE_S]

More opinions, this time against abdication (we can say that Queen Bea has started an lively debate in Spain):

Inocencio Arias (a retired diplomat), in his blog at El Mundo:

"The Prince, the King and the abdication"
Traductor de Google

 

[Bine221]

Iñaki Gabilondo, a well-known and respected Spanish political journalist, has spoken asking the King to abdicate. He has a videoblog in El Pais, so he has spoken there and there is no transcription.
Sorry, but it´s to long to translate, I´ll do it later if I have time. I´ll leave the video for those who speak Spanish, because I find it very interesting.
Iñaki is IMO a very good journalist. I don´t agree with everything what he says, but he states the facts very nicely and coherently, which is appreciated. And the title of the article says it all:

"My Crown, or THE Crown"
O mi corona o la corona >> La voz de Iñaki Gabilondo >> Videoblog Política EL PAÍS

EDIT: I´ve write a summary, because I know that at least An Ard Ri reads them
-"With Revenga´s imputation, and with the trial approaching Infanta Cristina,King´s Juan Carlos´ reign is reeling, and time is not in his favour".
-"In the streets, reproaches growns and society is tired."
-"I have the impression that, depite the very delicate moment we are living, King Juan Carlos will have to choose between his reign and the Monarchy, because his reign has no longer future. Monarchy still can have it, if the chapter is changed at time."
-"Don Juan Carlos will have to do something similar to what his father, Don Juan, did, step aside, for the institution that they defend can have a future"
-"The King shouldn´t make a mistake, he enjoys the affection of most of the people, according to the polls, but that affection can be used to make the relief on a respected way, but it can´t be used to continue, because in my opinion he can´t continue for now on".
-"In my opinion, what the Crown must do righ now is preparing the relief as fast as possible, because time is not in his favour".

Very interesting arguments...... and yes, valuable ones
"My Crown or The Crown" really brings it to the point.
BYe Bine

 

[An Ard Ri]

Iñaki Gabilondo, a well-known and respected Spanish political journalist, has spoken asking the King to abdicate. He has a videoblog in El Pais, so he has spoken there and there is no transcription.
Sorry, but it´s to long to translate, I´ll do it later if I have time. I´ll leave the video for those who speak Spanish, because I find it very interesting.
Iñaki is IMO a very good journalist. I don´t agree with everything what he says, but he states the facts very nicely and coherently, which is appreciated. And the title of the article says it all:

"My Crown, or THE Crown"
O mi corona o la corona >> La voz de Iñaki Gabilondo >> Videoblog Política EL PAÍS


EDIT: I´ve write a summary, because I know that at least An Ard Ri reads them
-"With Revenga´s imputation, and with the trial approaching Infanta Cristina,King´s Juan Carlos´ reign is reeling, and time is not in his favour".
-"In the streets, reproaches growns and society is tired."
-"I have the impression that, depite the very delicate moment we are living, King Juan Carlos will have to choose between his reign and the Monarchy, because his reign has no longer future. Monarchy still can have it, if the chapter is changed at time."
-"Don Juan Carlos will have to do something similar to what his father, Don Juan, did, step aside, for the institution that they defend can have a future"
-"The King shouldn´t make a mistake, he enjoys the affection of most of the people, according to the polls, but that affection can be used to make the relief on a respected way, but it can´t be used to continue, because in my opinion he can´t continue for now on".
-"In my opinion, what the Crown must do righ now is preparing the relief as fast as possible, because time is not in his favour".

Thank You Annie S that was very kind of you to write that summary

 

[ANNIE_S]

You´re very welcome, An Ard Ri

Another interesting article, from Fernando Onega in La Vanguardia.
He doesn´t thhink that the King must abdicate, but the monarchy is heavily damaged and they need to take action in it:

"The illness of the Crown"
Traductor de Google

 

[kathia_sophia]

i agree with "the monarchy is heavily damaged and they need to take action in it", but abdication is no solution and its good that The King stated that he wont abdicate.
see the situation in The Netherlands, an abdication becomes somewhat a "tradition", and if JC abdicated, Felipe would be pressured to abdicate later in his years as a 70s year-old King. thats not positive at all. (though i accept the abdication in the Netherlands as a natural course in that country's history, i see no positive turn in abdication on another countries)

the only thing that JC and the monarchy have to do is to keep away the best as possible from scandals and controversy issues, and give Felipe, Letizia and the little Infantas more "limelight", i mean, make them appear more as the image of the monarchy, since they are the only members of the family that have more popularity and a more "clean" image.

 

[Bine221]

it is really great having a "clean and scandal-free" CP couple including some super-sweet little infantas, they are the future of the monarchy - and I think this is it also, what keeps the monarchy "alive"...
BYe Bine

 

[EIIR]

Iñaki Gabilondo, a well-known and respected Spanish political journalist, has spoken asking the King to abdicate. He has a videoblog in El Pais, so he has spoken there and there is no transcription.
Sorry, but it´s to long to translate, I´ll do it later if I have time. I´ll leave the video for those who speak Spanish, because I find it very interesting.
Iñaki is IMO a very good journalist. I don´t agree with everything what he says, but he states the facts very nicely and coherently, which is appreciated. And the title of the article says it all:

"My Crown, or THE Crown"
O mi corona o la corona >> La voz de Iñaki Gabilondo >> Videoblog Política EL PAÍS


EDIT: I´ve write a summary, because I know that at least An Ard Ri reads them
-"With Revenga´s imputation, and with the trial approaching Infanta Cristina,King´s Juan Carlos´ reign is reeling, and time is not in his favour".
-"In the streets, reproaches growns and society is tired."
-"I have the impression that, depite the very delicate moment we are living, King Juan Carlos will have to choose between his reign and the Monarchy, because his reign has no longer future. Monarchy still can have it, if the chapter is changed at time."
-"Don Juan Carlos will have to do something similar to what his father, Don Juan, did, step aside, for the institution that they defend can have a future"
-"The King shouldn´t make a mistake, he enjoys the affection of most of the people, according to the polls, but that affection can be used to make the relief on a respected way, but it can´t be used to continue, because in my opinion he can´t continue for now on".
-"In my opinion, what the Crown must do righ now is preparing the relief as fast as possible, because time is not in his favour".

Thank you for the translation, Annie. It would seem Gabilondo and I are singing from the same hymn sheet. Interesting also that he too uses the example of Don Juan stepping aside for his son to show that it would not be totally unprecedented if JC were to abdicate.

I know that JC has said that he would never abdicate, but that was then and this is now. While he was at the height of his popularity, it meant sense that he would not contemplate abdication. But that's no longer the case. Surely he is mature and self-aware enough to recognise that abdication in favour of Felipe may be the best chance he has of seeing all that he has worked for on a firmer foundation once more.

I don't like abdication, in principle. In this situation, however, it makes sense to me. This constant conveyor-belt of bad news will have to come to a head, sooner or later.

 

[An Ard Ri]

If the King were to suddenly announce his abdication it would be tantamount to saying that he was guilty of something especially with the media circus and trial surrounding Don Inaki .

Abdicating now would destroy the monarchy full stop!

Talk of the king abdicating to me is nonsense,if Queen Beatrix did a cartwheel at the Het Loo would the Spanish media ask the King to do the same

 

[padams2359]

I am sorry Ari, this has nothing to do with QB. I have post from months ago stating this. I really want to like this man. I can trace my family back King Phillip, who also left the country destitute, not really our proudest moments. This is the modern version, Loosing The Armada for a personal quest to destroy Elizabeth at all cost. He failed miserably. I don't like it, but this is how I see it. Give it to the pretty boy, and retire to a villa on the coast, pop up for big events, other than that, lay low for a while.

 

[ANNIE_S]

I think the main problem here is the current situation Spain´s going through.
If things were the different, the country had a healthy economy, and the government and political parties weren´t so disliked, if it was a "stable" situation, an abdication could be proposed.

But the "special thing" about all this is that Spain isn´t surface a Monarchy´s crisis only, it´s a crisis "of everything". IMO, an abdication right now would bring even more inestability, which could be very dangerous for the monarchist system itself (as well as for the country). I don´t think this is the best moment.

But if the things get worse...then I agree with Gabilondo that better taking the risk than waiting until it´s too late.

 

[kathia_sophia]

I know that JC has said that he would never abdicate, but that was then and this is now. While he was at the height of his popularity, it meant sense that he would not contemplate abdication. But that's no longer the case. Surely he is mature and self-aware enough to recognise that abdication in favour of Felipe may be the best chance he has of seeing all that he has worked for on a firmer foundation once more.

i think you miss something there... JC said he wont abdicate in a interview i saw in TV some weeks ago (when we entered 2013), so it was not then!

an abdication for Spain right now, will show that the Monarchy is a fiasco!

and i understand that Queen Beatrix abdication annoucement made a boom in the media about JC abdication, its natural that some would mention it, not only in Spain but in other Monarchies in Europe, so its to be expected...
Felipe will be King one day, no need to rush things, and to be honest as the King is now (sorry, i dont want to hurt or offend someone's feelings), it might not take long for Felipe to be King...(i meant JC health is deteriorating really fast lately)

 

[An Ard Ri]

The King abdicating would solve nothing in my opinion but only set a precedence for future Monarchs who have a rough patch.

 

[vkrish]

Absolutely, no monarch is perfect. Every monarch has a bumpy patch in his/her reign either through their own actions, or their family or associates.
They have to go through that and again regain their respect and move forward.
Calling for them to abdicate for every small mishap or just because their heirs look much better is silly..

 

[An Ard Ri]

Absolutely, no monarch is perfect. Every monarch has a bumpy patch in his/her reign either through their own actions, or their family or associates.
They have to go through that and again regain their respect and move forward.
Calling for them to abdicate for every small mishap or just because their heirs look much better is silly..

Couldn't agree more vkrish

 

[Nice Nofret]

oh, I'm very much for only young, handsome and intelligent monarchs with cute kidds

The yellow-press and journals would be over the moon with joy - every paper would sell like fresh cut bread (it's a saying in Switzerland.. don't know an english equivalent)

 

[Shelo]

If the King were to suddenly announce his abdication it would be tantamount to saying that he was guilty of something especially with the media circus and trial surrounding Don Inaki .

Abdicating now would destroy the monarchy full stop!

Excellent point. Stepping down now would undoubtedly raise suspicion. The best thing for the Spanish Monarchy is to keep doing their "jobs" as usual. And not go on any hunting trips!

 

[EIIR]

If the King were to suddenly announce his abdication it would be tantamount to saying that he was guilty of something especially with the media circus and trial surrounding Don Inaki

Abdicating now would destroy the monarchy full stop!

JC has the perfect excuse for abdicating - his health. It's clear that his health is deteriorating and his mobility is greatly reduced as a result of his hip problems. Abdication need not be attributed to the ongoing scandal, all he would need to say is that his doctors have advised him to cut down significantly on his work and that, to provide the Spanish with a full-time head of state he is stepping aside for his son. I'm sure some would look at it as an admission of guilt, but his health problems would be just as plausible.

kathia_sophia said:

i think you miss something there... JC said he wont abdicate in a interview i saw in TV some weeks ago (when we entered 2013), so it was not then!

I know he said that just a few weeks ago, but the monarchy's difficulties seem to be worsening by the day. Events seem only to be getting more and more dangerous for the institution. So what does JC do? Stay put while the monarchy's position continues to steadily decline, making a republic more and more likely. Or, take a chance and see if removing himself from the picture in favour of the comparatively less damaged Felipe and Letizia could help revive its popularity?

This is not a "rough patch". If things continue as they are, the King's daughter and son-in-law could well be found to have defrauded taxpayers, at a time when Spain is in financial meltdown. This is more than just a bumpy patch, for the SRF and Spain generally. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

 

[padams2359]

This is not a "rough patch". If things continue as they are, the King's daughter and son-in-law could well be found to have defrauded taxpayers, at a time when Spain is in financial meltdown. This is more than just a bumpy patch, for the SRF and Spain generally. Desperate times call for desperate measures.[/QUOTE]

Over the centuries governments have come and gone. Rome was not built in a day, but it crumbled pretty quickly. The failure of the economy to survive has always been a key component in government failure. There are many cities under the sahara that were places of great wealth and power. .

 

[Tudur rose]

oh, I'm very much for only young, handsome and intelligent monarchs with cute kidds

The yellow-press and journals would be over the moon with joy - every paper would sell like fresh cut bread (it's a saying in Switzerland.. don't know an english equivalent)

In Britain we say "sell like hot cakes "

 

[GracieGiraffe]

This is not a "rough patch". If things continue as they are, the King's daughter and son-in-law could well be found to have defrauded taxpayers, at a time when Spain is in financial meltdown. This is more than just a bumpy patch, for the SRF and Spain generally. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Over the centuries governments have come and gone. Rome was not built in a day, but it crumbled pretty quickly. The failure of the economy to survive has always been a key component in government failure. There are many cities under the sahara that were places of great wealth and power. .[/QUOTE]

Yes, I completely agree. The analogy to Rome was spot on.

As more and more come out about Cristina, and she is saved from accusation, or if Inaki is saved from the same sentence an everyday Spaniard would face for the same acts, it's all over, IMO.

If the accusations prove correct, this money was literally stolen from the taxpayers, people who could well use it these days to do things like, well, EAT. This is catastrophe for the entire house of Bourbon.

And that's a pity. I love some of the members of the SRF.

 

[cepe]

As I said in hte Inaki thread, I'm catching up on this.

What some appear to be suggesting is that the King abdicates before Inaki is even charged with an offence in order to save the monarchy.

Surely if he did that, (1) it would say Inaki is guilty and (2) " I knew about it".

On the basis of being fair and given the King's statement that none are above the law, I think that he should do nothing until the legal process has been gone through - keeping well away from it and by no action on his part letting people think he knows the outcome. He needs to be as distant from it as possible (might be difficult but he needs to try).

If his son-in-law is found guilty then he takes the consequences and his daughter stays in the US.

Harsh but if "sacrificing" his daughter is necessary, then he should do so.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

JC has the perfect excuse for abdicating - his health. It's clear that his health is deteriorating and his mobility is greatly reduced as a result of his hip problems. Abdication need not be attributed to the ongoing scandal, all he would need to say is that his doctors have advised him to cut down significantly on his work and that, to provide the Spanish with a full-time head of state he is stepping aside for his son. I'm sure some would look at it as an admission of guilt, but his health problems would be just as plausible.

His health - the part that matters, the mental part - is perfectly fine. For somebody who understands this role as for life, the decline of physical health doesnt matter. Like in Britain - I can imagine QEII going towards her mother's age record and Charles standing in for her for the things she is too frail to do. She would never abdicate because of physical decline.

Abdication would be the worst option for JC and the monarchy as an institution at this time.

 

[Artemisia]

I have to agree; abdicating is the worst thing Juan Carlos can do right. In a way, it'd be like a captain abandoning his sinking ship before anyone else. The King has to steer the Monarchy clear of this storm and only then, if he wants it, think of an abdication.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Abdication only works out of a very, very stable position or by tradition, like in the Netherlands. In a similar timespan people will be expecting WA to hand over to Amalia. But in case of trouble and major republican movement, its a dangerous thing to do, even in case of the Netherlands (should the climate change in the next decades), where at present the monarchy is very popular, not at least because the heir married a woman who perfectly fitted into the dutch idea of how the future queen should be.

Spain has its own problems, unlike the other monarchies. Despite having a perfectly groomed heir, he or the SRF in general were unable over the years to really convince or wow the public in favour of the institution to remain. Its not so much about Felipe himself but about the system in general. JC brought democracy by monarchy (in the beginning, he held political power that he inherited from Franco, which helped to tackle the most urgent issues, that he only gave up with the renewal of the constitution), what would it be needed for now?

Other countries will face other problems, after parent generation has gone: Heirs or consorts not being up to the task or their offspring unwilling to live a royal life under scrutiny without a real purpose. I wonder how royal parents feel to put such a weight on the heir/esses shoulders.

This generation, the next or the next after that, sooner or later I dont see any of the european monarchies to remain, Spain might be among the first to go.

 

[cepe]

This may take some pressure off in the short term. The public hate corrupt politicians more than anyone else. Spanish PM accused of corruption

BBC News - Spain PM Mariano Rajoy denies 'false' slush fund claim

 

[cepe]

Latest from the BBC on the problems facing the Spanish PM. The reason for putting it in here is to highlight that the problems raised re corruption and the future of the monarchy are spreading in terms of government

BBC News - Spanish protests after PM Rajoy denies slush fund claim

 

[ANNIE_S]

From El Mundo:

From "juancarlists" to "Felipists".
Is is the time of the Prince?
-The King´s surgery is a political event of the first order.
- Politicians have been unable to regulate something as fundamental as the succession.
(*)

Traductor de Google

Original: ¿Es la hora del Príncipe? | Op-Blogs | elmundo.es

(*) Javier Castro-Villacañas is a journalist. He has just published the book: "The failure of the Monarchy".

 

[An Ard Ri]

From El Mundo:

From "juancarlists" to "Felipists".
Is is the time of the Prince?
-The King´s surgery is a political event of the first order.
- Politicians have been unable to regulate something as fundamental as the succession.
(*)

Traductor de Google

Original: ¿Es la hora del Príncipe? | Op-Blogs | elmundo.es

(*) Javier Castro-Villacañas is a journalist. He has just published the book: "The failure of the Monarchy".

Somehow I think there are more "Juan Carlists" over "Felipists" ,Felipe I'm sure will make a great King but I wouldn't like the assocation of the NOOS scandal going into a new reign.

 

[EIIR]

I think perhaps they're suggesting that those who are supportive of the monarchy generally may now see Felipe as the best chance of seeing the institution into the future, as opposed to being passionate believers in Felipe personally. Juan Carlos is no longer the 'jewel in the crown' that he was previously, in fact he's potentially part of the problem.

 

[lula]

It does not say that, it is more a reflection of a legal problem, which is negative for Prince Felipe.

Spain lacks a statute of the Royal Family with the laws concerning the Royal Family. The abdication, waivers or even obligations and rights of the Crown Prince, are not regulated by law.

The situation of the royal family in recent months shows that the regulation is required, but the current political and institutional situation makes very difficult to do it now.