Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Blog Real]

That was in Catalonia. In other parts of Spain this did not happen.
We all know that a part of the people of Catalonia want independence, so I'm not surprised....

[An Ard Ri]

Originally Posted by Stefan

But what i meant was the belgian RF not the politics which uis a complett different Issue. The belgian King and Queenm are trying to build a positve Image while in Spain the King waited for days and days until he finally held his speech.The spanish King could also follow example of the daniosh RF to spend some Money

How can the Spanish RF do something similar when the queen is under quarantine or do the German tabloids not publish that fact too?

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by An Ard Ri

How can the Spanish RF do something similar when the queen is under quarantine or do the German tabloids not publish that fact too?

As far as i know the King is not in quarantine and the Infantas also not.

And one can also spend money if one is in quarantine or not? Or send out a Message like CP Haakon and MM for example.

[Blog Real]

Originally Posted by Stefan

As far as i know the King is not in quarantine and the Infantas also not.

And one can also spend money if one is in quarantine or not? Or send out a Message like CP Haakon and MM for example.

The King has already helped Spain by using his contacts to arrange half a million COVID-19 masks and screening kits. And the King and Queen are sure to do even more things to help.
The King and Queen are aware of what is going on and will certainly help.

[lula]

Originally Posted by Stefan

But what i meant was the belgian RF not the politics which uis a complett different Issue. The belgian King and Queenm are trying to build a positve Image while in Spain the King waited for days and days until he finally held his speech.The spanish King could also follow example of the daniosh RF to spend some Money

The Spanish Royal Household takes seriously that of being a Parliamentary Monarchy. The king does not speak without prior government approval, and the government only gave it to him once measures had been approved and these had been endorsed by parliament.

Unfortunately, at this time, many actions of the Royal Household are conditioned by the government's desire prominence and confrontations.

[Duke of Marmalade]

Quarantine is no excuse, as we can see doing things online is the thing to do.
My yoga studio does now online classes, no problem.
If the SRF wanted to send a message - apart from the formal Head of State speech - eg as a family including the Queen or the Infantas, they could do without any problem.
But not even their website is functioning properly so it may be too much to ask.

[Blog Real]

Originally Posted by lula

The Spanish Royal Household takes seriously that of being a Parliamentary Monarchy. The king does not speak without prior government approval, and the government only gave it to him once measures had been approved and these had been endorsed by parliament.

Unfortunately, at this time, many actions of the Royal Household are conditioned by the government's desire prominence and confrontations.

Has the President of the Government put the King aside a little?
I think King Philip VI has done a good job and done what he should do.
How do you think the current situation of the monarchy is? Is the monarchy in danger today?

[An Ard Ri]

Originally Posted by Stefan

As far as i know the King is not in quarantine and the Infantas also not.

And one can also spend money if one is in quarantine or not? Or send out a Message like CP Haakon and MM for example.

The Spanish RF are not really that media savvy ,the website is constantly crashing and given the state of emergency in Spain and adhering to the Social Distancing guidelines the Infantas out in public would not be such a good move and irresponsible .

The king could draft in his sister Elena during this crisis while the queen is still under quarantine.

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by An Ard Ri

The Spanish RF are not really that media savvy ,the website is constantly crashing and given the state of emergency in Spain and adhering to the Social Distancing guidelines the Infantas out in public would not be such a good move and irresponsible .

Don't think they should go out and visit Hosptials etc but perhaps they could make a little Video in the Palace Gardens of the King and his daughters and relese that to the Public.

Or give a message on their Instagram if they have one with a pic.

[An Ard Ri]

I don't think they have an Instagram account ,communication was much better and more frequent under the reign of King Juan Carlos.

[Blog Real]

Spaniards do not see, by far, a problem in the Monarchy, according to the CIS.

The Monarchy is much more ingrained in Spanish society than some want to make believe. Even the last barometer of the CIS recognizes that the Crown is not a problem, not by far, for the Spaniards. Despite the attacks that the Institution is receiving in recent months, including those of some government ministers, and the negative news affecting Don Juan Carlos, only between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of Spaniards consider it a problem.

In particular, the CIS asks respondents what is "the main problem that currently exists in Spain", and in spontaneous response the Monarchy appears at number 31 in a list of 38. Instead, spaniards do consider politicians, the government and politics, who appear in the first places, a problem. In fact, this Barometer reflects that concerns about government management in the coronavirus crisis are growing.

https://www.abc.es/espana/casa-real/...6_noticia.html

[theroyalfly]

This is mindblowing Blog_Real. Thank you for the information!

[Frozen Royalist]

July 2020 Electomania Poll: 53.1% for Republic, 2.6% for Don't Know, and 44.4% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 SocioMetrica Poll: 49.3% for Republic, 1.8% for Don't Know, and 48.9% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 Invymark Poll: 39.0% for Republic, 29.3% for Don't Know, and 31.2% for Constitutional Monarchy.

The accusations against the former king have seriously caused a bit of a shake up for support for the royal family. The question is what is King Felipe VI, along with his oldest daughter once she's an adult, going to do in order to make support for the monarchy in the majority again.

In terms of party support, it's roughly even for pro-monarchy and pro-republic parties.

July 20 - 24 Invymark/laSexta poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
21.4% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.0% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
11.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)

July 20 - 24 ElectoPanel/Electomania poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
22.7% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.1% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
9.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)
3.8% for ERC (pro-republic and Catalan independence)
2.0% for Mas Pais (pro-republic)
2.4% for Junts per Catalunya (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
1.4% for EAJ PNV (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic)
1.3% for Eh Bildu (pro-republic and Basque Independence)
0.6% for CUP (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
0.5% for Canarian Coalition (pro-Canarian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.7% for BNG (pro-republic and Galician Independence)
0.4% for NA+ (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.2% for PRC (pro-Cantabrian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)

It should be noted that the constitution should still be taken into consideration where 2/3 of the seats in the Spanish parliament need to be in favor of a referendum on the future of the Spanish Royal Family. According to the latest polls, republicans do not enjoy that kind of support. It should also be noted that some republican parties refuse to work with the current PSOE-Podemos coalition government on grounds of being separatists.

So despite this month's opinion polls, the royal family is safe. But measures are badly needed in order to improve the monarchy's image, otherwise we could very well see a Third Spanish Republic before 2050 in my opinion.

-Frozen Royalist

[Duke of Marmalade]

I don't think this is in the interest of the political system, without a monarchy the spotlight would be completely on them, no royal family any longer who can be used as a scapegoat etc. I believe that the monarchy will stay but that the professional life of the RF will not become more pleasant with time. Leonor will have a very hard time as Queen, a lot more difficult because she is a woman.

[Mbruno]

Originally Posted by Frozen Royalist

July 2020 Electomania Poll: 53.1% for Republic, 2.6% for Don't Know, and 44.4% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 SocioMetrica Poll: 49.3% for Republic, 1.8% for Don't Know, and 48.9% for Constitutional Monarchy.

July 2020 Invymark Poll: 39.0% for Republic, 29.3% for Don't Know, and 31.2% for Constitutional Monarchy.

The accusations against the former king have seriously caused a bit of a shake up for support for the royal family. The question is what is King Felipe VI, along with his oldest daughter once she's an adult, going to do in order to make support for the monarchy in the majority again.

In terms of party support, it's roughly even for pro-monarchy and pro-republic parties.

July 20 - 24 Invymark/laSexta poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
21.4% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.0% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
11.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)

July 20 - 24 ElectoPanel/Electomania poll result:
29.1% for PSOE (party of the prime minister who is a republican)
22.7% for People's Party (pro-monarchy)
14.1% for Vox (pro-monarchy)
9.9% for Podemos (pro-republic)
7.9% for Citizens (pro-monarchy)
3.8% for ERC (pro-republic and Catalan independence)
2.0% for Mas Pais (pro-republic)
2.4% for Junts per Catalunya (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
1.4% for EAJ PNV (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic)
1.3% for Eh Bildu (pro-republic and Basque Independence)
0.6% for CUP (pro-republic and Catalan Independence)
0.5% for Canarian Coalition (pro-Canarian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.7% for BNG (pro-republic and Galician Independence)
0.4% for NA+ (pro-Basque Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)
0.2% for PRC (pro-Cantabrian Autonomy, position is unknown on monarchy or republic.)

It should be noted that the constitution should still be taken into consideration where 2/3 of the seats in the Spanish parliament need to be in favor of a referendum on the future of the Spanish Royal Family. According to the latest polls, republicans do not enjoy that kind of support. It should also be noted that some republican parties refuse to work with the current PSOE-Podemos coalition government on grounds of being separatists.

So despite this month's opinion polls, the royal family is safe. But measures are badly needed in order to improve the monarchy's image, otherwise we could very well see a Third Spanish Republic before 2050 in my opinion.

-Frozen Royalist

Although Pedro Sánchez has said that he is personally a republican, a republic is not part of the official PSOE platform (at least not yet). In fact, Sánchez also said that "Felipe VI's monarchy" was an acceptable compromise on a divisive issue. Note that he didn't say "the monarchy" or any type of monarchy, but specifically "Felipe VI's monarchy", which I take to mean not only a limited monarchy under the strict terms of the constitution, but also an even more slimmed-down monarchy than in JC's reign.



Just to put it the context though, a constitutional amendment to end the monarchy requires a 2/3 majority in both houses of Parliament and in two consecutive parliaments, i.e. with a general election in between. And, then, as Frozen Royalist said, the amendment still needs to be confirmed in a popular referendum. Even if PSOE switched to support a republic officially, there wouldn't be a 2/3 majority for it in the current parliament.

[Tatiana Maria]

For comparison, are there any other monarchies reigning in democratic countries where a plurality (or majority) of the citizens support a republic?

[Mbruno]

Originally Posted by Tatiana Maria

For comparison, are there any other monarchies reigning in democratic countries where a plurality (or majority) of the citizens support a republic?

Based on available polls, I don’t think so, at least not in Europe.

Until recently, support for the monarchy in Spain was still around 54 or 55 % . I don’t know what has happened in the past months, but I would imagine it was a mix of JC’s scandals, Catalan separatism and the Covid crisis.

It would be interesting to see how the national numbers would look like if Catalonia were excluded from the poll.

In any case, unless PSOE switches to an openly republican platform, I don’t see a game changer in terms of serious movement in Parliament towards a republic.I still think the Spanish elite and most of the political establishment are behind Felipe VI . Leonor’s position may be less secure depending on how events unfold in the future.

[janelarn]

Who is "Electomania"? LOL
Last week there was a survey with more than 70 percent support for the monarchy, and you just have to see the tour they are doing for the country and the support and love they have.
The rest, spare.
Of course, Sánchez is a Republican, with not exactly moderate ideas, but far to the left, but he has a precarious majority and no matter how much they try to make up his polls, he loses followers every day.
*

[Tatiana Maria]

Originally Posted by janelarn

Who is "Electomania"? LOL
Last week there was a survey with more than 70 percent support for the monarchy, and you just have to see the tour they are doing for the country and the support and love they have.

Can you provide a link to this survey?

[Mbruno]

Link to the Electomania poll including interesting regional breakdowns.


https://electomania.es/epmonar10jul20/

PM Pedro Sánchez seems to rule out any move towards a republic in the current government.


https://elpais.com/espana/2020-07-27...tabilidad.html


The PM's statement in support of King Felipe VI comes shortly after his deputy, Pablo Iglesias, from the far-left Unidas Podemos bloc said that "the debate about the usefulness of the monarchy is growing in Spain, but admitted that constitutional change is unlikely in the short run.

Iglesias also distanced himself from the statement by the third vice-president of the Congress of Deputies, who called on King Felipe VI to abdicate and on a referendum on the monarchy to be held.