Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Tatiana Maria]

Originally Posted by Frozen Royalist

The Citizens Party, known as Ciudadanos in Spanish, is an increasingly popular party in Spain that advocates for Spanish Unionism but at the same time a good portion of the leadership of the party advocates for a referendum on the monarchy and said advocators are republicans themselves. So what do Spanish monarchists do if they come to power?

The political parties' long-standing policy is of support for allowing the firstborn, whether female or male, to inherit the throne, but the political leaders have deferred the elimination of male preference in article 57.1 of the Constitution for the reason that the necessary referendum could instigate a debate about the Constitution and the monarchy.

Similarly, I think unionist republicans will remain reticent about calling a referendum on the monarchy, since debate about modifications to other articles in the constitution would obtrude on the procedure.

Originally Posted by Somebody

It could very well be that Letizia would have held the same ideas as her aunt had she not married the now king... She lived in Barcelona and was according to many a republican as well.

I imagine she was not republican anymore when she became the Princess of Asturias, since most sufficiently affluent people would not take a position in an institution which they were politically opposed to.

Originally Posted by Duke of Marmalade

There were serious reasons for JC's abdication, poor health, scandals, losing the moral authority that is essential for the job ... its not that he walked away because he wanted to retire like an average Spaniard.

The reality that the first and (then) only monarch since its restoration was forced in effect to abdicate seems to display that the Spanish monarchy so far has not been established as securely as the other nine European hereditary monarchies – none of their monarchs have been deposed since the abdication of Leopold III of Belgium in 1951.

Originally Posted by Denville

\and so are most constitutional monarchies, I don't understand your point....

Kitty1224 was addressing the belief that constitutional monarchies are better than republics.

[Kitty1224]

Originally Posted by Denville

Don't know what youmean by "they have to toe the line". All constitutional monarchs have to actin accordance with their government's wishes, otherwise they would be veering into a more autocratic form of monarchy. The Govt is elected and has a mandate from the people so the King or queen has to follow its wishes and policies.
And I thin you said that you thoguth the Spanish monarchy was very secure..

Think about it, one wrong move and the Spanish monarchy is finished. I’ve changed my mine about the security of the monarchy since reading this forum. I like Felipe and Letizia and admire what they are trying to do with the monarchy, but I would not be shocked if there is no throne for Leonor to inherit or if they do away with the monarchy in the future before that. Of course all monarchies have to toe the line but compare the Spanish monarchy to the British one and the British one is much more secure.

[Kitty1224]

Originally Posted by wyevale

It seems to me that 50% ish thinks one US President is 'great' whilst the other thinks he is APPALLING. Certainly that is the case with the present incumbent,and [judging by the BILE written about the previous occupant of the White House], it was true of him too.

That is the real virtue of non-Political Heads of State [especially a crowned head], people of very different political persuasions can [and do] unite around them..

Wasn’t talking about Trump. Talking about all presidents in the US. There have many great presidents and bad one. Same can be said about monarchs. America is great without a monarchy. Each country is different.

[Mbruno]

Violent revolutions like the American, French or Russian revolutions are out of question in modern European countries. The only way to abolish the monarchy in those countries then is to go through the normal democratic process to amend the constitution.

In Spain, in particular, amending the constitution is quite difficult because it requires the support of 3/5 of the House and the Senate, or 2/3 of the House and over 50 % of the Senate. On top of that, upon request by only one tenth of the members of either chamber, the proposed amendment has to be submitted to ratification in a national popular referendum.

As of now, three major national parties (PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos) support the continuation of the monarchy. Podemos is the only major national party that openly supports a republic and I don't see them either leading a national government or, more significantly, achieving the necessary qualified majority in the Spanish parliament to pass a constitutional amendment to abolish the monarchy. Furthermore, popular support for the monarchy as an institution seems to hover around 60 % while personal support for Felipe VI is slightly higher than that. Even if a republican amendment were passed in Parliament, it would be still uncertain that it would win majority support in a national referendum. So I think the monarchy is pretty safe for now, unless another major national party, e.g. PSOE, changes its position and embraces republicanism.

As I said , the main challenge to the Spanish monarchy today is still Catalan separatism. However, even in Catalonia, there is not a clear popular majority for independence or a republic, even though the separatist parties have a majority in the regional parliament (as we have seen in Scotland and Quebec, those two are not equivalent propositions !). If Madrid had agreed to a non-binding, free and fair referendum in Catalonia, the matter would probably have been settled by now. Instead, the Spanish authorities (government and courts) chose instead to suspend the regional Catalan government and now prosecute the (non-violent) Catalan government leaders, not only for misuse of public funds or calling an illegal referendum (of which, to be fair, they are guilty), but also for sedition/ treason, which, seen from outside, does make them look a lot like political prisoners (I apologize to the Spanish posters for saying that) and only strengthens the hand of the separatists and the republicans.

[Kitty1224]

Originally Posted by Mbruno

Violent revolutions like the American, French or Russian revolutions are out of question in modern European countries. The only way to abolish the monarchy in those countries then is to go through the normal democratic process to amend the constitution.

In Spain, in particular, amending the constitution is quite difficult because it requires the support of 3/5 of the House and the Senate, or 2/3 of the House and over 50 % of the Senate. On top of that, upon request by only one tenth of the members of either chamber, the proposed amendment has to be submitted to ratification in a national popular referendum.

As of now, three major national parties (PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos) support the continuation of the monarchy. Podemos is the only major national party that openly supports a republic and I don't see them either leading a national government or, more significantly, achieving the necessary qualified majority in the Spanish parliament to pass a constitutional amendment to abolish the monarchy. Furthermore, popular support for the monarchy as an institution seems to hover around 60 % while personal support for Felipe VI is slightly higher than that. Even if a republican amendment were passed in Parliament, it would be still uncertain that it would win majority support in a national referendum. So I think the monarchy is pretty safe for now, unless another major national party, e.g. PSOE, changes its position and embraces republicanism.

As I said , the main challenge to the Spanish monarchy today is still Catalan separatism. However, even in Catalonia, there is not a clear popular majority for independence or a republic, even though the separatist parties have a majority in the regional parliament (as we have seen in Scotland and Quebec, those two are not equivalent propositions !). If Madrid had agreed to a non-binding, free and fair referendum in Catalonia, the matter would probably have been settled by now. Instead, the Spanish authorities (government and courts) chose instead to suspend the regional Catalan government and now prosecute the (non-violent) Catalan government leaders, not only for misuse of public funds or calling an illegal referendum (of which, to be fair, they are guilty), but also for sedition/ treason, which, seen from outside, does make them look a lot like political prisoners (I apologize to the Spanish posters for saying that) and only strengthens the hand of the separatists and the republicans.

I abeee it’s pretty safe for now but I’m thinking long term.

[lula]

Juan Carlos was the victim of his personal mistakes and the institutional crisis of the country ... a difficult combination, which perhaps he could have overcome if the disease and the successive operations had not soured his character and made him an absent king when he was most necessary for the country. His own health did not allow him to solve things better.

Mbruno, the independence of Catalonia is unconstitutional, therefore no Spanish government can call a referendum about something unconstitutional, without changing the Constitution beforehand and for that it needs a majority of votes from the Spaniards.

Two million Catalans can not decide the state model shared by 47 million Spaniards and approved by a large majority of Catalans and Spaniards in the Constitution. If a government unilaterally gave them that right, they would be taking away their democratic rights from millions of Spaniards.

The Catalan separatists have prepared and financed with public money, an international campaign to sell their version ... the Spanish government has done a very bad job to counter that. But one thing is social networks, the opinions of journalists and the fake news ... and another the reality and the laws.

The Catalan independence push: a catalogue of violence

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/02...25_617960.html

Madrid sends more bodyguards to protect judges and politicians in Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/03/29...7.html?rel=mas

[Kitty1224]

Originally Posted by eya

The problem for me is not only the origin." She is commoner the jealous because she and not me". The problem is that the Letizia does not have this charisma to come into contact with the people and wins. She seem like a distant cold to think itself and not the other "I'm not a commoner anymore I'm your queen".

From videos I've seen she seems lovely? Maybe I'm wrong since I do not live in spain.

[Denville]

Originally Posted by Kitty1224

From videos I've seen she seems lovely? Maybe I'm wrong since I do not live in spain.

What can you tell about someone from videos.. Interviews, reading books and articles... yes but unless it is a very long video interview, I don't know if you can tell very much....

[Mbruno]

Originally Posted by lula

Mbruno, the independence of Catalonia is unconstitutional, therefore no Spanish government can call a referendum about something unconstitutional, without changing the Constitution beforehand and for that it needs a majority of votes from the Spaniards.

Lula, I think we are talking about two different things.

The unilateral independence of Catalonia, or Catalonia becoming independent following a local referendum are indeed unconstitutional propositions. A different question is whether it is impossible for any Spanish region to ever break out from the Kingdom of Spain under the current constitution. Although the constitution says that it is based on " the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards" , I still believe that it is possible for a region to leave the kingdom by an appropriate revision of the constitution, even if that required a 2/3 majority twice in both chambers of parliament with a general election in between, and ratification in a national referendum.

What I was suggesting was a non-binding referendum, which would basically be just a poll to ascertain the desire of the Catalan preople to leave Spain. Like the 1995 Quebec referendum and the 2015 Scottish referendum, a hypothetical 'Yes' vote would not change the constitutional status of Catalonia, but rather would be simply an invitation extended to the national government and the national parliament to begin discussions that might end up in a negotiated breakup within the proper constitutional framework.

Of course, it is possible to take the hardline position that a consented, non-binding referendum is also legally impossible (even though the Canadians and the Brits thought otherwise), or even assume that, based on the Preliminary Title of the constitution, Spain is indivisible and that the question of secession is not even passible of discussion. Politically, however, I don't think that is the smartest position to take. As I said, I strongly believe the 'No' side would have won a non-binding referendum two or three years ago, settling this issue at least for a generation.

[Duke of Marmalade]

I don't think that Letizia is decisive for the future of the monarchy, her role is not important for the institution. She seems to polarize, there is a lot of negativity in the tabloid media but I guess most people don't really care.
She's not a charismatic people's person like Maxima, who put the anti-monarchy movement back to the stone age in her country, maybe this not what the Spanish society is asking for anyway, but I don't think she makes Felipe shine either.
For me there has been a lack of authenticity because from the beginning Letizia was not allowed to be who she is, what makes her look controlled and stiff.

[LadyRohan]

Originally Posted by Kitty1224

In Spain I disagree that the monarchy is secure. It actually isn’t. No wonder they have to toe the line.

It would help the discussion if that view was based on something factual, otherwise it's just a statement without much meaning.

I think you confuse 'toeing the line' with being sensitive to regional movements and separatists who will use every move you make to their advantage. That's a delicate balance to walk for a sovereign, but one that His Majesty manages quite well, and is respected for.

Spain is a formal society, and the upper class, with the King at the pinnacle, still speak quite formally and they may seem detached to many. However, faced with the alternative, in a country where most dislike politicians immensely, there is no real worry that a majority would ever want to elect another politician (or reality buffoon) as head of state, instead of keeping the system they know, and that they have known for centuries and centuries.

[Kitty1224]

Originally Posted by Denville

What can you tell about someone from videos.. Interviews, reading books and articles... yes but unless it is a very long video interview, I don't know if you can tell very much....

Well why does she appear cold and distant?

[Denville]

Originally Posted by Kitty1224

Well why does she appear cold and distant?

Since I've never seen a video of her I have no idea.....and I know little about her other than the basics, that she is a divorcee married to the King...

[Denville]

Originally Posted by LadyRohan

It would help the discussion if that view was based on something factual, otherwise it's just a statement without much meaning.

I think you confuse 'toeing the line' with being sensitive to regional movements and separatists who will use every move you make to their advantage. That's a delicate balance to walk for a sovereign, but one that His Majesty manages quite well, and is respected for.

Scenturies.

Is the Catalan crisis likely to affect the position of the monarchy? It seems as if Felipe has successfully avoided controversy over it....

[LadyRohan]

Originally Posted by Denville

Is the Catalan crisis likely to affect the position of the monarchy? It seems as if Felipe has successfully avoided controversy over it....

I think it was stated earlier in this thread, but if the Catalan situation in any way affects the monarchy, it's most likely in a positive way. The debate about the future of Catalonia serves to strengthen the position of the King, because he is 1) the only one who can claim a moral mandate to speak for all Spain, in a land where politicians are widely disliked, and 2) should Catalonia be allowed to detach from Spain, the Spanish throne would be the only thing that could effectively insulate the rest of Spain from dissolving, and would serve as a rallying point for every other spaniard wishing to keep their country unified.

If one is awfully cynical, one could say that letting Catalonia go would strengthen the monarchy, by removing the most republican region in Spain from the union, and by the other reasons above, but regardless, the King would not want Catalonia to be lost, Spain would not be the same without Catalonia, and Catalonia would lose far, far more than they would gain by becoming an independent, outsider state in Europe, instead of being a prosperous part of Spain.

[M. Payton]

[QUOTE=LadyRohan;2088085]Hear, hear. Most republics in Europe that function fairly well, such as Germany, Finland and Iceland, have a ceremonial president that has little to do with the daily running of the country, as is the case in constitutional monarchies. There is very little need to replace a hereditary sovereign, who is neutral politically and trained at their job from early years, with someone who must be elected and can never achieve neutrality like a sovereign, just for the sake of doing so. Executive republics, like the U.S and Russia, can never function as well as a parliamentary republic, because too much power is gathered in the hands of one person, and power corrupts, always, so you always end up with a flawed presidency in one way or another.

I totally agree with your comment LR for all the years of reading history and learning here about the different governments and how they operate that a constitutional monarchy is the best way to go. In viewing first hand what my country goes through for many many decades now, that the *Executive Republic* has forgotten about the very people that put them in power. I used to be big in volunteering for a party and then learned and saw what goes on...not anymore! Became very disillusioned quickly and left. It is not just our president and by that I mean *All Presidents* not just the sitting one for it is our entire *Congress* what makes and breaks this country for they are the ones that really yield the power in our government. A group of men and women that do not work together and bicker and fight over every little article that is on the table.

I personally think the Spanish reign of King Felipe is doing a remarkable job in keeping in touch with the people and working on their behalf.

[M. Payton]

Originally Posted by Kitty1224

I believe the US is doing very well as a republic.

IN your dreams it is doing very well. It all depends on a person's view of their government how old/young they are, if they have worked or volunteered to work for a party in their government come election time or not, how the elected officials in your area work for the people, and many other factors as to where our government is doing well. Being someone of an much older generation I have seen how much this country as changed. A good book to read on this subject is The Fall of the Roman Empire for it clearly IMHO reminds me of my country, so in time we will see what happens here.

Gads I can not believe some of the things that go on in this country, it just is a nightmare at times...........so we need change here now!

[Denville]

Originally Posted by LadyRohan

I think it was stated earlier in this thread, but if If one is awfully cynical, one could say that letting Catalonia go would strengthen the monarchy, by removing the most republican region in Spain from the union, and by the other reasons above, but regardless, the King would not want Catalonia to be lost, Spain would not be the same without Catalonia, and Catalonia would lose far, far more than they would gain by becoming an independent, outsider state in Europe, instead of being a prosperous part of Spain.

Thanks for explaining it quickly. I don't know much about it, but I wasn't sure if the Govt/Felipe were handling it well... I'm sure he would not want it lost but it could have some positive effects for him as the King... still, to preside over a loss of a region could hardly be beneficial to him or the Govt....

[Gawin]

My thoughts...governments should be democratic. The details - monarchy, republic, whatever - are secondary and should be based on the will of the people. Because each country has its own history, customs, and traditions, each country will also have its own preferences. One form of democratic government is not necessarily better than other.

The future of the Spanish monarchy should and will be determined by the Spanish people.

[carlota]

in spain, 36% of people are in favour of abolishing the monarchy. it is the highest percentage across all monarchic countries.

https://qz.com/1281030/royal-familie...-the-monarchy/