Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Duke of Marmalade]

All signs point to escalation ...

Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has told Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy that the region's parliament could formally vote through its suspended independence declarion if Madrid "persists in impeding dialogue".

https://www.thelocal.es/20171019/bre...eding-dialogue

[camelot23ca]

Originally Posted by BELTRANEJA

The Spanish constitution works perfectly well, has a process to carry out the withdrawal of autonomous Community management, this is not automatic, and has a time. Initially this history of independence,it had lot of support, but in less of one month, more than 700 companies have left Catalonia, some important, some even with an antiquity of centuries, have left,

Which, if true, should be almost as alarming to Madrid as the possibility of Catalonian independence. If Catalonia succeeds in obtaining independence both Catalonia and Spain lose. If Catalonia remains part of Spain but struggles with social unrest and an economic downturn the rest of Spain will suffer as well. I get the impression that some feel the rest of Spain will somehow win if Catalonia loses. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I don’t think we can even begin to quantify yet how damaging these past few weeks have been for Spain - everything from the future of its monarchy to its economic prospects to its image abroad could be affected medium to long term, along with other consequences we can’t even envision yet. It seems to me the government and the Catalonians are engaged in a high stakes game of chicken. I’m sure it feels like the right thing to do at the moment. I’d be interested in hearing their thoughts twenty years from now when they and their children are still picking up the pieces from everything they’ve broken so needlessly.

[An Ard Ri]

King Felipe VI says Catalonia 'will remain' Spanish

BBC News

King Felipe VI says Catalonia 'will remain' Spanish - BBC News

[muriel]

Whilst I appreciate the many articles of the Catalan crisis being put on this thread, I do believe they are off-topic. This thread should, IMO, focus on issues relating to the Future of the Spanish monarchy, and not domestic political matters. Perhaps the moderators can opine.

[Lee-Z]

Originally Posted by muriel

Whilst I appreciate the many articles of the Catalan crisis being put on this thread, I do believe they are off-topic. This thread should, IMO, focus on issues relating to the Future of the Spanish monarchy, and not domestic political matters. Perhaps the moderators can opine.

Agree, this is more about "the future of Spain" than "the future of the spanish monarchy"

[Duke of Marmalade]

Maybe a new thread something like Felipe and the Catalonia crisis? Because whatever happens there, will have an impact on casareal.

Latest news:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...from-catalonia

The Spanish government has suspended Catalonia’s autonomy and will
introduce direct rule from next Saturday as the country sinks further into its worst constitutional crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1977.
After an emergency cabinet meeting, and citing the Catalan government’s “conscious and systematic rebellion and disobedience”, Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, said he was invoking article 155 of the constitution to “restore the rule of law, coexistence, the economic recovery and so that elections could be held in normal circumstances”.
Pending senate approval next week, the government of Carles Puigdemont will be stripped of its powers, with its functions assumed by the relevant ministries in Madrid. Early elections would then be held within six months, Rajoy said.
“We are not ending Catalan autonomy, but we are relieving of their duties those who have acted outside the law,” Rajoy said, without detailing which Catalan institutions would come under direct rule. It is expected that the interior ministry, and therefore the police, would be one.

[Al_bina]

Originally Posted by Duke of Marmalade

Maybe a new thread something like Felipe and the Catalonia crisis? Because whatever happens there, will have an impact on casareal.

Latest news:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...from-catalonia

The Spanish government has suspended Catalonia’s autonomy and will
introduce direct rule from next Saturday as the country sinks further into its worst constitutional crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1977... [snipped]

Given the situation in the international arena, the Catalan referendum was ill-times and ill-executed. Nether Russia nor China can support the referendum. The Brussels obkom can not allow fragmentation of any EU country at this point in time. A lot depends on what EU will look like in 10-20 years ( I mean the concept "two speed Europe") and how fast the aforementioned concept will get into gear.

Casareal will not be affected by the situation. King Felipe has to follow the government's line. It remains to be seen whether or not Spain will use General Franco's methods to quell the unrest.

[Duke of Marmalade]

Felipe yesterday cancelled an award presentation for ABC newspaper due to the Catalonia crisis, now we have the worst case:

Catalonia just declared independence and the Spanish senate votes on triggering §155, taking control of Catalonia.
https://www.businessinsider.nl/spain...onal=true&r=UK

[Mbruno]

What a mess ! What will the Catalan civil servants, including the Catalan police, do now ? Will they follow orders from the self-proclaimed Catalan republic or from the national government of Spain which is about to impose direct rule from Madrid ?

There are also two different proposals for elections, one by the separatists to elect a National Assemby to draft a new constitution for the Catalan republic, and another by the Spanish government to elect a new regional parliament of Catalonia under the Spanish constitution. I don't see how to reconcilie those two positions and hold any kind of election in this climate.

[wyevale]

I can see no resolution ahead, the two parties being ABSOLUTELY opposed to one another, with irreconcilable differences.
What will the EU do ? Will any EU states recognise this 'rogue state'. Will Russia, will the US, will the UN ?

[Al_bina]

The Russian Federation "considers Catalonian referendum as Spain’s internal affair".

"This is Spain’s internal affair, we don’t believe it necessary to interfere in any way," Peskov said when asked about Moscow’s attitude to the issue.

TASS: Russian Politics & Diplomacy - Kremlin on the Catalonian referendum

[An Ard Ri]

I wonder will we have another empty week of activities next week from the Royal House,such a terrible mess.

[Muhler]

Originally Posted by wyevale

I can see no resolution ahead, the two parties being ABSOLUTELY opposed to one another, with irreconcilable differences.
What will the EU do ? Will any EU states recognise this 'rogue state'. Will Russia, will the US, will the UN ?

There is no way the EU will recognize Catalonia. Partly because no one wants to antagonize the Spanish government and partly because EU has enough problems with Brexit as it is, but first and foremost because that will only embolden other separatist movements.

Russian has no interests in Catalonia, even though it, like the rest of Spain is a popular tourist destination for Russians.
Russia has no interest in antagonizing Spain, there is nothing to be gained from that.
USA will not support Catalonia. USA has no interest in weakening a NATO country like Spain.
China then? Forget it! China has problems with separatists out west, no need to encourage anyone. Not to mention Taiwan. China can hardly support Catalonia and still consider Taiwan a Chinese province.

So Catalonia has no friends, no support and hardly any international sympathy.
The sympathy the separatist movement got after the pretty heavy handed way the Spanish government handed the referendum has been squandered away, simply because the separatists have no long term policy. They only thought one move (the referendum) ahead. And now they simply don't know what to do and say. - And that does not impress anyone in power!
Even the foreign public view has shifted, after the foreign media actually got around to investigate the facts and now the separatists are left standing like bumbling amateurs.

- The best thing the Spanish government can do now, it to quietly take control and be as restrained as possible. The ball is now on the field of the separatists, if they overreact they lose the little foreign sympathy they have left. If they keep fumbling around they will stop being taken remotely serious.
The best card the Spanish government has is the separatist leadership.

[wyevale]

The United Kingdom, and France [I believe] have already said the same as the Russian Federation, and will not recognise Catalonia as an independent entity.

Ms Nicola Sturgeon [First Minister of the devolved Government of Scotland, and a Scottish Nationalist] certainly WILL. But since her govt has NO jurisdiction on external and foreign affairs, such 'recognition' is utterly meaningless...

[wyevale]

Catalonia crisis: Donald Tusk says 'nothing changes' for EU over 'independence'

[Blog Real]

And now what will happen? I'm worried and I think this could have consequences. We're going to have to wait and see what happens.

[Duc_et_Pair]

The difference with the Scottish situation is that in Spain the nation, the people and the territories of the kingdom are one and indivisible according the01978 Constitution. A minority in Catalonia wants to break away, one-sided, from the unitary state.|

Scotland at the other side is no part of an unitary state but one of the parts of the United Kingdom ánd the Referendum was democratically approved by the national Parliament in Westminster in which representants of the whole Union approved the Referendum Bill.

From a legalistic view, the actions of the Catalonian Government borders that of a coup d'état in a part of Spain, withdrawing it from the authority of the national state and then the legal Government can do little else than to impose their authority once again.

[wyevale]

The US State Departments view -

[Al_bina]

Originally Posted by Muhler

... [snipped]
Russian has no interests in Catalonia, even though it, like the rest of Spain is a popular tourist destination for Russians.
Russia has no interest in antagonizing Spain, there is nothing to be gained from that. ...

Antagonise is a strong word. Spain has no warm/friendly feelings towards Russian Federation. It does like money brought by Russian tourists and rich Russians. Russia has no particular compassion for Madrid. On a different note, Spain has its own personal Kosovo. It was one of the countries that opened "Pandora's box" in 2008.

[Mbruno]

Apparently, the Scottish government has issued a statement saying it " respects and understands" the decision of the Catalan parliament, but did not explicitly recognize the Catalan republic , Recognition in this case would have been moot anyway as Scotland is not a sovereign state in international law.