Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Duke of Marmalade]

'We will not negotiate': Spanish government facing showdown over Catalan independence

Sacking the Catalan government is known in Madrid as the “nuclear option”, given it is considered likely to foment unrest in Barcelona and through the rest of the heavily industrialized, affluent region that accounts for a fifth of Spain’s economy.

The conflict looks like to become Spain’s worst political crisis for decades.

 

[Dalriada]

Catalonian president attacks Spanish king for 'ignoring his people' after independence vote in televised speech
Catalonian president attacks Spanish king for 'ignoring his people' after independence vote | The Independent

“With this attitude you have disappointed many Catalans who held you in esteem. The constitution gives you a role as a moderator which you have failed to use.”

Puigdemont criticised the King both for echoing the government’s views and for failing to refer to the hundreds of injured during heavy-handed police actions against a illegal pro-independence referendum in Catalonia over the weekend.

The idea for the monarch to act as moderator in such situations sounds quite plausible and I fail to see why the Castilian king could not act appropriately. The same role was enacted by George V at the July 1914-Buckingham Palace Conference on the Irish Home Rule Bill when all sides attended although the only result was to cool down the heated debate. The outbreak of WW1 then put things on ice. I think Felipe has just alienated millions of people permanently.

 

[wyevale]

I think Felipe has just alienated millions of people permanently.

I think that may seem so from abroad, and to consumers of Anglophone the 'media' which ['as one'] has swallowed the Catalan 'line' in promoting 'democracy at all costs'. The reality REMAINS that Referendums are not really 'democratic' if illegal, and the 90% figure in favour of leaving simply isn't credible..ONLY Banana Republics, and autocracies like China get such numbers in 'elections'. These numbers are clearly 'fiddled'.

The King [as a Constitutional Monarch] HAS to 'toe the Govt Line' [at least in Public]. But he was really addressing, and bringing succour to his subjects in ALL Spain, knowing that nothing he says or does will find favour from the secessionists , who detest him, his position and his family ON PRINCIPAL, and their opinion WILL NEVER CHANGE...

 

[lula]

The Head of State just defended the law and told the truth ... we are used to politicians making speeches to look good, to win votes, to manipulate ... and many people have been grateful for a direct speech.

The independentists or Podemos are never going to speak well of a speech of the King ... always will look for the polemic somewhere. They've been doing it for 40 years every Christmas, so it's not new.

In the video of An Ard Ri, it is part of the key of the speech of the King. Catalans who say "we are no longer a silent majority". Catalans who were afraid to speak because the power there is of the independentists. People whose representatives in Parliament are harassed, silent in plenary. People who see that neither the Catalan government nor the Spanish government defend their rights.

Probably the King's speech supporting the law gave them hope. Yesterday these people went back to the streets, yesterday these people approached the Spanish Police and the Civic Guard to show their support. That these people finally break their silence is a danger to independence (as it was in the Basque Country when people lost their fear and started to take to the streets against ETA).

There is also a majority of Spaniards who have a very simple reasoning. If a citizen breaches law, he is condemned. If a poor man steals to eat, he can end up in jail. If those responsible for the Catalan government are breaking the law, justice must act. If Catalan officials and police do not comply with the law that as public servants they are obliged to comply, they must be tried.

Many people also know that one of the reasons for the rapid flight to independence is that the nationalist party that took power in Catalonia for 40 years it is full of corruption. That's why they really hate the Civil Guard investigating them. In 2018, Andorra will put an end to bank secrecy, and will have to give the Spanish Government and Europe the data of its accounts ... and it is no secret that the corrupt politicians and the Catalan elites have hidden a lot of money there.

 

[Blog Real]

The King said what he had to say, obviously he does not like the King and the Monarchy will always find a way to criticize the speech of Philip VI.
This situation is complicated and not that the King says will change what is happening. Only the government can try to change this.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Latest update:
Spain suspends Catalan parliament session planned for Monday in attempt to block independence
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...reater-harm-from-catalonia-independence-plans

We have friends in Valencia and in Cambrils near Barcelona, their opinions are divided, even within the families.
I remember 10 years ago when we were on holiday in Australia and did a day trip in a group. A young man from Spain was there, maybe 20 years old. When he said he was from Girona, somebody said, oh from Spain, that's a long way.
He then made a point of stressing that he was catalan, and not spanish and he felt offended by being called spanish, and he explained why.
I was really shocked back then how deep the rift must be, even in young people. I know a few people who put their region before their country (eg a guy from Corsica) but I had never met somebody that clear about it, almost agressive.
It's a shame it has come that far, people should be able to be both, spanish and catalan without chosing either.

 

[Yashal]

Speaking of Girona...

The mayoress Marta Madrenas (who's very involved in the independentist process) has decided to break the ties with the Royal House after the King's speech. She has declared that no member of the royal family (or the government, or the national police or the guardia civil) will be invited to assist to the acts that will take place in Girona. Besides, nobody will represent the town at the acts organized and hosted by the Royal House.

That's quite interesting because of the Princess of Girona Foundation. Tomorrow the Chamber of Commerce of Girona (one of the founding members back in 2009) will decide whether they will drop their patronage.

https://www.economiadigital.es/directivos-y-empresas/fundacion-princesa-girona_511791_102.html

El president de la Cambra de Girona proposarà sortir de la Fundació Princesa de Girona

 

[wyevale]

Given the likely 'declaration of Independence' next week, Companies in Catalonia are beginning to react, and make plans for their future - Sabadell [no 2 Catalan Bank] is leaving Catalonia for Spain, and the No 1 bank [la Caixa] looks set to do the same, after an alarming loss of customers towards Spanish banks. That is 60% of the money leaving. Industry and Business will surely follow after that...
Without access to the Euro or membership of the EU, it looks likely there will be a 'flight of Capital' [and jobs]..

 

[ANNIE_S]

Given the likely 'declaration of Independence' next week, Companies in Catalonia are beginning to react, and make plans for their future - Sabadell [no 2 Catalan Bank] is leaving Catalonia for Spain, and the No 1 bank [la Caixa] looks set to do the same, after an alarming loss of customers towards Spanish banks. That is 60% of the money leaving. Industry and Business will surely follow after that...
Without access to the Euro or membership of the EU, it looks likely there will be a 'flight of Capital' [and jobs]..

Several banks and major bussiness are assessing wther they will move out of Catalonia, others have already anounced they will:
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/3.0....or-banks-and-businesses-move-out-of-barcelona

This is a bit OT, but I found this article by a Catalan politic scientisc to be a really good analysis of the situation:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/27/catalonia-a-fight-within-a-nation/

And another worth-reading.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/03/inenglish/1507025584_438952.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CC

 

[Blog Real]

How will the monarchy become if Catalonia declares independence?

 

[Al_bina]

'We will not negotiate': Spanish government facing showdown over Catalan independence

Sacking the Catalan government is known in Madrid as the “nuclear option”, given it is considered likely to foment unrest in Barcelona and through the rest of the heavily industrialized, affluent region that accounts for a fifth of Spain’s economy.

The conflict looks like to become Spain’s worst political crisis for decades.

Spain is definitely experienced in a prolonged civil war. I wonder who outside players might be. It is unusual that Madrid has been doing nothing to address the Catalan issues for about 11 years.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Former British PM Tony Blair tipped to become mediator between Catalonia & Madrid.

https://www.rt.com/uk/405802-tony-blair-catalonia-spain/

 

[wyevale]

Tony Blair tipped to become mediator between Catalonia & Madrid.

Because a War Criminal [allegedly] is EXACTLY what an already febrile situation needs...?

 

[lula]

Former British PM Tony Blair tipped to become mediator between Catalonia & Madrid.

https://www.rt.com/uk/405802-tony-blair-catalonia-spain/

In Spain there is no news about it.

As long as the independentists do not renounce to the unilateral declaration of independence and return to legality, the Spanish government will not debate anything.

Actually the Spanish government can not negotiate much. Catalonia already has a high level of independence, they can promise more money, as always ( but that will not please the rest of Spain).

The government can not allow a binding referendum on independence without changing the constitution, and for that they need 2/3 of the parliament and that most Spanish vote in referendum.

According to the September survey of the Center for Sociological Research, only 9.6% of Spaniards would favor the state allowing a declaration of independence. So many millions of Spaniards would have to change their minds.

 

[Marengo]

The link is a website of Russia Today, mouthpiece of the Kremlin and it quotes the Daily Express, a British tabloid notorious for its lies & aligned with the party of Nigel Farage. Not the most reliable sources I would think.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Tony Blair. Ugh. Maybe in his dreams.
But hopefully something happens and there is no further escalation on Monday.

 

[wyevale]

I fully expect an Iberian equivalent to 'the Tennis Court Oath' [at the beginning of the French Revolution] to happen this Monday...

 

[lula]

Something is happening, money is starting to flee Catalonia.

The banks of Catalonia change their corporate headquarters. Sabadell Bank has done so today. And La Caixa, emblem of Catalonia, is preparing for it.

Probably tomorrow the Spanish government will approve a decree to help companies that want to move their corporate headquarters from Catalonia.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Pro and anti rallies take place ,Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont attacks Spain's King Felipe VI

 

[Princess Larisa]

Something is happening, money is starting to flee Catalonia.

Of course they are leaving. They would be going from a market/client base of 46.5 million to 7.5 million. Not to mention that all membership in international organizations, trade and tax agreements, export contracts, ect., that Spain has would become null and void for a new state. Even in an ideal situation all this will take years to negotiate again, my own country is an example of this.


Don’t get me even started on a huge blow to tourism this is doing. Ask Greece how long their tourist industry will be recovering from unrest they had a few years ago. It took us 20 years to get our numbers up to the pre-war years and this with being an UN/NATO/EU member.

 

[wyevale]

huge blow to tourism

Hotel Bookings in Barcelona are down by 35% already...

 

[Al_bina]

Hotel Bookings in Barcelona are down by 35% already...

Hasn't the city of Barcelona had anti-tourism campaigns? I read that Barcelonians were suffocated by hordes of tourists. Now the city will have a break.

 

[wyevale]

the city will have a break.

Dreaming of a break, and the REALITY of one, is rather different, as the City will discover.. the loss of revenue WILL hurt...

 

[tommy100]

I don't understand why the King had to make a statement at all if he was going to make one which is so one-sided. I understand that monarchs can't go against the government but likewise they are not simply spokespeople for governments who must speak out for the government at every turn.

There is a way to take a middle ground and if Felipe wasn't going to do that he could have said nothing.

That said I don't understand why the Spanish government is so determined to stop the vote, wouldn't it be better to put effort into campaigning for a united Spain?

I have to say I do think the Catalan government is wrong to get people to vote in a referendum which has no legal standing and needs to realise it can't go on making its own rules to suit its self.

 

[Princess Larisa]

Hotel Bookings in Barcelona are down by 35% already...

Not surprising. I know from my personal experience. Catalonia and Barcelona are a very popular destination for high school and university graduation trips in Croatia. Before the terrorist attack in Barcelona 2,5 million euros worth high school trips had been planed for beginning of September. After the attack most schools canceled and many rescheduled for October. Now they are all again cancelling, including two schools I work with. This means that next year the school and the parents won’t even take Barcelona in consideration, they’ll go to Italy or France instead. Same thing happened with Greece and they are still not getting the contracts they had before.
And this is only tiny Croatia.

 

[moby]

lula, thanks for the insight on the economy. Interesting what's happening with Sabadell and La Caixa and the government's move to facilitate transfer of companies.

I'm in Barcelona now and what I see in the media and the reality on the ground are so, so very different. Before the referendum at least there were people banging on pots and pans at 10 pm or so, today there's none. If I didn't know half of them are working towards independence, I wouldn't have any idea about it as there are barely any signs of it on the street. Everything is business as usual. I don't know if there's any country in the world that has managed to become independent in a short time and without any blood spilled so IMO, so nothing's gonna happen. I wish the rest of the world can see how bizarre it is that the media makes Barcelona seem like it's chaotic at the moment, as it's really not.

I honestly think now that King Felipe is on the right, you have to stamp down blatant rebellion and be firm about defending the constitution. The best to hope for from his speech is to get the anti-Independence, pro-Spain silent majority groups to be brave about speaking out. If he has accomplished that with his speech then well done.

I really do think that some Catalans have an inflated sense of importance--counting the benefits they give to the rest of the country without counting how the investment the government has made in the region to even make that possible. Plus the anti-tourists sentiment the past year, although understandable, is also puzzling especially if any of those protesting against it are pro-independence. Hasn't the local government purposefully promoted tourism throughout the years to generate income and what do they think will happen should they become independent? Tourism would basically be something Madrid can't pull out, so they better be extra nice to tourists asap. lol

 

[Yashal]

Speaking of Girona...
...

That's quite interesting because of the Princess of Girona Foundation. Tomorrow the Chamber of Commerce of Girona (one of the founding members back in 2009) will decide whether they will drop their patronage.

And they are out. Apparently they decided it yesterda and not today as the article was claiming.
Their role in the Foundation was pretty much only institutional but still it's a big decision as they were among the founding members.

The articles says they've released an official statement but I haven't been able to find it. They ask the Crown to reflect on and finally assume its arbitrator role or to look for somebody who can take it.


La Cambra de Comerç sale de la Fundació Princesa de Girona

 

[lula]

Precisely that foundation is an example of the great effort that King Felipe has made during years to understand and be close to the Catalans.

Its activities are dedicated to support young people, and help in their training and business development. And so far the main beneficiaries have been Catalan youth.

These are political decisions ... but the foundation is a private entity, funded mainly by large companies with interests throughout Spain. In the last years they are developing activities throughout Spain.

That game can do both parts ... another of the founders is the Dalí Foundation. If there is an icon of Gerona and around its figure is developed tourism there, is Salvador Dalí. And Dalí left his inheritance, all his work and the rights to the Spanish state. Will they return that too? Or will they make an illegal seizure?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

So what could be a solution?
Rajoy can't move without questioning the authority of the state and the constitution, the Catalan government would have to take the first step but this would be admission of defeat.
A mediator from within or outside Spain?
The next step would be the impeachment of the catalan government, probably on Monday, when the parliament plans to meet to announce independence, Madrid evoking §155 and taking away the autonomous status.
Worst case, there are arrests, and the nationalists finally become martyrs. It would lead to massive, possibly violent protests. This could be the trigger to even more chaos.

 

[An Ard Ri]

Catalan crisis: Spanish court bars MPs' independence move - BBC News