Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy


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IMO it was a mistake by the Spanish Government to try to aggressively prevent the [admittedly] illegal vote yesterday. The images of violence by the Guardia Civil will have done NO good to Spain's image worldwide.
A far better response would have been to let the vote proceed peacefully then just ignore the result - after all an illegal referendum in nothing more than an opinion poll...

This mornings communique from the European Commission shows that they will not recognise an independent Catalonia, and that if Barcelona announces secession it will get no support whatsoever, except from the secessionist parties in other countries like the SNP [Scotland] Sein Fein [ Northen Ireland] and Parti Quebecois [Canada].
Thus the unity of Spain will be preserved for now, but who can say what the future holds...
 
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Well I believe National Day we will see a Madrid full of flags and people like you have not seen in years. In the last week thousands of citizens in all the cities of Spain have taken the flag to the balcony in support of the State. The sale of flags has multiplied, surpassing even when Spain won the World Cup.

Catalonia has its own Police, and the work of the Spanish Police and Civil Guard are residual there. If yesterday they were there it is because a judge ordered them to be there. The Catalan police refused to comply with the orders of the judge, there were no Catalan riot police, and asked the Spanish police for support to go to the most conflictive polling stations. Not complying with the law, and lying to the Spanish police ... they got what they wanted, to show the world how cruel the Spanish state was. Recently the Catalan government ceased to the head of its police for not being willing to make this, and they placed one of them. The policemen who were against this illegality were marked and called fascists.

The Spaniards have seen many demonstrations in Catalonia, we have seen on the street the anti-system that are now in government and we have seen their police ... and the images were much more brutal.

They have broken with legality. They do not want dialogue, the current Catalan government is formed among others by antisystems, they want the total break. They can not demand that the Spanish government pass over the law and all Spanish citizens to give them what they want.

Now they have two options ... or they declare independence unilaterally against all national and international laws ...or there will be a confrontation between the members of the Catalan government and the anti-system can rebel and then we will see more violence, of them against them.
 
I agree with Mirabel and Mbruno that it would be more reasonable to offer a way to independence if a region truly wants it (not just in Spain but in general). Just blocking every attempt and even considering brutal police force 'justice' will do exactly the opposite of what is intended. I am quite sure the separatist movement has won quite some support because of the Madrid response.

Given that the king has not spoken against the violence, I am afraid he is more in agreement with preventing the referendum (and independence) at all costs than most royalwatchers outside of Spain would like to think.

I do think that the requirements to become and independent country need to be high given the consequences. Two rounds of voting requiring 2/3 majorities including a very clear path of what it means/what the new state would look like - this could be worked out between the first and second round - (with the costs of the whole independization process being largely for the region that wants to become independent).
 
he is more in agreement with preventing the referendum (and independence)

His Majesty is hardly likely to favour the dissolution of his Kingdom, is he ?
 
The King's duty is to support the Constitution and the law.

Spain as every democracy has its laws, and laws are not changed at the whim of a minority. If they want referemdum and independence, they must obtain the necessary parliamentary support.

Another problem is that half of the Catalans do not want independence. The successive Catalan governments have been favorable to the independentist ideas, so these people, who are almost half of the population are quite abandoned and they are the silent part of this story, the millions who yesterday did not go to vote and that in their daily life are marked and called fascists for not defending independence.
 
Casa Real remained silent during the whole day of the referendum

https://translate.google.com/transl...um-independentista-Cataluna_0_3013498621.html
Silencio de la Corona en el referéndum independentista de Cataluña

IMO as much as the Spanish government is legally right, it bears great responsibility for the fact that the situation is totally hopeless. With his ignorance of the nationalist ideas of the Catalans and their immobility, the Spanish PM has been the best campaigner of the Catalan cause. By refusing to react politically to the striving of a considerable part of the Catalans for more autonomy for years, he has given the separatist the best ammunition free of charge and presented Spain as an authoritarian state.

Even though there are more flags than usual to be expected in Madrid, Madrid is not Spain just as much as London is not England and Paris is not France. You cannot keep a country together by force of the elite in the capital in the long run.

We will see if Rajoy will go one step further and arrest those who are responsible for the referendum, eg Puigdemont himself.

The King or the EU will probably and hopefully condemn the violence but will stand by the law of the state, there is no other option.
 
The statement from the EU commission, and a map which probably explains its stance...
 

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Unlike King Juan Carlos I, the current King of Spain represents very little. The current Spanish government is incapable of strategic thinking. Festering from the times of General Franco, tensions within the Spanish society just re-surfaced.

Catalonia and its referendum are an internal matter of the country.
The statement from the EU commission, and a map which probably explains its stance...
The map is surprising. I thought that Germany had no independence movements at all.
 
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The results of yesterday's referendum are not reliable, about 90% of people embracing independence is to laugh.
Thousands of people did not vote, and naturally most people who went to vote are supporters of independence.
I believe that now there will be much revolt and tension on the part of the Catalans but I do not believe that independence is proclaimed.
Probably the Spanish government will have to take advantage of some form of these results to reach an agreement with the government of Catalonia and to make this region more autonomous of some form, but still being territory of Spain.
This is not going to affect in any way the image of the monarchy, this is another matter, and it is the monarchy that unites Spain at the moment and is the symbol of all of Spain.
 

Catalonia and its referendum are an internal matter of the country.
It's not just an internal matter. The inhabitants of Catalonia, like all Spaniards, are citizens of the European Union and thereby the union is responsible for protecting their rights even, at times, against their own national government.
 
His Majesty is hardly likely to favour the dissolution of his Kingdom, is he ?

You conveniently left out the 'at all costs'.

Nobody would expect him to be in favour of the dissolution of his kingdom but most people would expect him to be against (and speak out about) brutal force against his own people!
 
The results of yesterday's referendum are not reliable, about 90% of people embracing independence is to laugh.

According to Swedish media sources yesterday 90% of those who voted wants independence but the same sources also states that only about 43% of the population voted.
 
The King's duty is to support the Constitution and the law.

Spain as every democracy has its laws, and laws are not changed at the whim of a minority. If they want referemdum and independence, they must obtain the necessary parliamentary support.

Another problem is that half of the Catalans do not want independence. The successive Catalan governments have been favorable to the independentist ideas, so these people, who are almost half of the population are quite abandoned and they are the silent part of this story, the millions who yesterday did not go to vote and that in their daily life are marked and called fascists for not defending independence.
If half of the population does not want independence than the referendum would not have been considered such a treat! If they had sticked to clearly denouncing the referendum as illegal but without the extreme repression that we have seen over the last few weeks with its climax yesterday the story would be very different.

The King's duty is also to represent and care for his people - including those that were brutally beaten by the police :whistling:
 
most people would expect him to be against (and speak out about) brutal force against his own people!

It is inconceivable that the Kings are not both deeply distressed at the violence of yesterday, but as a Constitutional Monarch King Felipe can only speak and act as his government directs. He is NOT a private individual who can issue statements without ramifications for his nation or government...
 
It's not just an internal matter. The inhabitants of Catalonia, like all Spaniards, are citizens of the European Union and thereby the union is responsible for protecting their rights even, at times, against their own national government.
Catalonia is one of the provinces in Spain. At the same time, EU is not a full confederation yet. This means the Spanish laws still precede the EU ones.

The way the Spanish government has been dealing the situation is amateurish.
 
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According to Swedish media sources yesterday 90% of those who voted wants independence but the same sources also states that only about 43% of the population voted.

Yes, but it is important to consider how hard it was made to vote (closing polling stations up until taking the votes that were cast at some polling station - so actual turn out was higher); a turn out of 43% of people means that a huge part of the population was apparently willing (especially those in Barcelona) to be beaten to make their voice heard. So, I wouldn't say that 'only' 43% voted.

Of course, this referendum doesn't have any legitimacy but it should be a clear sign that something is going on and that some way of addressing these concerns needs to be found instead of a haughty dismissisal of 'a whim of the minority'.
 
This is not going to affect in any way the image of the monarchy, this is another matter, and it is the monarchy that unites Spain at the moment and is the symbol of all of Spain.
Everyone who spoke out in favour of an independent Catalunya also spoke out in favour of becoming a republic as that was part of the question!

And the King is very much perceived as part of 'Madrid', so even though he already was unpopular in this part of the country, not speaking out against but previously supporting the actions of the government is another clear sign that he doesn't care about them (at least that is how it will be interpreted).
 
On the "votes" of yesterday, everything was totally illegal and embarrassing... there was no census, there was no control, the press recorded a woman who came to an electoral college with a ballot box full of votes before starting the voting, there are photographs of children voting, there are people who voted up to four times in different places, people could print their ballot at home or vote in the street ... The numbers of the government of Catalonia are not serious, they even announced them before finishing the voting.

Duke, it was not just Madrid. Spanish cities, from north to south, were filled with Spanish flags and on Saturday there were demonstrations in support of the unity of Spain even in Barcelona.

Many Spaniards are tired, and feel their rights are worth less. Precisely that is one of the problems, that many national political parties know that the speech with which they win votes in Catalonia, causes to lose votes in other regions of Spain ... and the other way around.
 
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The statement from the EU commission, and a map which probably explains its stance...

Trusting the PM's leadership in this process is laughable as he has just shown to handle it extremely badly not holding back on the use of violence (which was condemned in the previous sentence) but instead justifying it as appropriate.

Furthermore, that map does represent regions where there are some separatist movements but that does not mean that all these regions truly want to become independent only that sometimes a very small minority wants (a little) more autonomy (some explicitly state that they do not aim for full independence). Only very few of these regions have separatist movements that represent a large part of the population (for example Scotland, the Basque Country and Catalunya). So, using these maps to justify their stance is misleading.

It is inconceivable that the Kings are not both deeply distressed at the violence of yesterday, but as a Constitutional Monarch King Felipe can only speak and act as his government directs. He is NOT a private individual who can issue statements without ramifications for his nation or government...

If they truly wanted to they would be able to find some kind of formula to still clearly back up the idea of a united Spain while also showing some compassion for those hurt yesterday.

On the "votes" of yesterday, everything was totally illegal and embarrassing... there was no census, there was no control, the press recorded a woman who came to an electoral college with a ballot box full of votes before starting the voting, there are photographs of children voting, there are people who voted up to four times in different places, people could print their ballot at home or vote in the street ... The numbers of the government of Catalonia are not serious, they even announced them before finishing the voting.

You can hardly blame the organizers of the referendum for that! Except for those who want to use it all for their political gain (and I am sure there a quite a few of them including the region's president), I am sure most voters would rather have voted in a more orderly manner to make their voice heard but the actions of the central government made that impossible.
 
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So, using these maps to justify their stance is misleading.

They would [probably] use these maps to 'justify their stance'.. I dislike the EU intensely and are delighted my country will no longer be a member, so i'm certainly no apologist for them....
 
Many Spaniards are tired, and feel their rights are worth less.

You have expressed this sentiment before and even though I lived in Spain several years ago I don't fully understand. Could you elaborate because I am really curious to why their wish (and also a few other regions) for independence makes the rights of other Spaniards worthless? Is it because the government has been giving in to some of their requests in the hopes of keeping them as part of Spain? And if so, would independence not be a solution as their privileges would be completely abolished if they were no longer a part of the country?

[Again, I am not advocating for independence, just for them (and other groups - another relevant example are the Kurds) to be listened to including a reasonable (careful with high demands and safeguards against misuse) path to independence if that truly were the wish of the people. I don't think upholding a nation in its current form (which is always the result of a long process throughout history including many changes over the years and sometimes very arbitrary - think about African countries -) should be the end-all.]

Mods, sorry if we are going too much off-topic. Although I do think the political implications of this whole process impact on the future of the Spanish monarchy. If there is a different topic in which the current situation in Spain should be discussed please let us know.

They would [probably] use these maps to 'justify their stance'.. I dislike the EU intensely and are delighted my country will no longer be a member, so i'm certainly no apologist for them....
I was in no way suggesting that you were justifying or apologizing for them - you were clearly just presenting the EU statement; sorry if that wasn't clear :flowers:
 
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On the "votes" of yesterday, everything was totally illegal and embarrassing... there was no census, there was no control, the press recorded a woman who came to an electoral college with a ballot box full of votes before starting the voting, there are photographs of children voting, there are people who voted up to four times in different places, people could print their ballot at home or vote in the street ... The numbers of the government of Catalonia are not serious, they even announced them before finishing the voting.

Duke, it was not just Madrid. Spanish cities, from north to south, were filled with Spanish flags and on Saturday there were demonstrations in support of the unity of Spain even in Barcelona.

Many Spaniards are tired, and feel their rights are worth less. Precisely that is one of the problems, that many national political parties know that the speech with which they win votes in Catalonia, causes to lose votes in other regions of Spain ... and the other way around.

thanks for your view, lula.
if this was the result the catalan politicians wanted, why did Rajoy walk straight into the trap of providing the pictures of bullying and violent behaviour by spanish riot police.
does the rest of spain condone this kind of violence because the catalan cause is illegal?
 
Podemos and the people who follow them are the hardest condemning the police action... but they come from citizen movements and anti-system ... so they hate the police. They criticize the Spanish government ... but do not criticize that the Catalan government violates the laws and tries to silence the opposition and half the Catalan population ... is electoral strategy.

Among the rest of the people there are opinions for everything, people obviously do not like to see these images ... but they also do not like the illegal Catalan government, its police, the families who used their children or those who went to vote knowing the orders of the judge.

Many people think that nobody acted totally well... but probably the opinion is that the fault is more of the politicians, than of the police. While the army and the police are always the most bloated institutions in Spain, politicians are always at the bottom of the list.

The presence of the police and the Civil Guard in Catalonia or the Basque Country is little, because they have their own police. And the rest of Spain knows perfectly well that their work in these regions is not easy and that many times they are attacked. Many young spanish policemen are going to work in these regions because they know they offer them a better salary, but they only work there for a few years, because life is not very pleasant.
 
i think every country have their laws that sould be respected this referendum is illegal sure there is other ways to solve the problem other than confrontation that i thin the separatists catalonians was looking for however violance isn't the answeer and that will make situation even worst as it's apparently what happen now in Catalunia,i've read that the ones who call for indepentendce are minority now alot of ppl changing their views,maybe the King should interfere as i don't see Mr Rajoy handling it right Imo.
 
In THE most critical speech of his reign, I hope the King can help 'bind the wounds' of his nation, and inspire his compatriots to solve this intractable issue.

I wish him good fortune tonight.
 
I think he can only speak as the government tell him to.

I also think that what he'll say tonight may condition the future of his reign and the monarchy for better or worse which, given the first fact, is discouraging.
 
I think he can only speak as the government tell him to.

I also think that what he'll say tonight may condition the future of his reign and the monarchy for better or worse which, given the first fact, is discouraging.

My take would be that he can only say what the governments approves of; I would sincerely hope that it is not the PM who writes the speech for him, but I am sure he'll have to approve it (but those are two distinct matters). And yes, the future of the monarchy (probably not short-term but in the long haul) is at stake.
 
He will stress the unity of Spain and hopefully condemn violence for any side.

I guess there needs to be a moderator, is there any figure in Spain who has a moral authority and is trusted to be impartial?
 
If I were Felipe, i'd decline to read a speech written for me by Rajoy..who has only enflamed the situation.

Rather his own words will be the ones likely to calm the Nation. Obviously the speech must be approved by the Government, but a choice of words that satisfies both King and PM MUST be found, and by 9pm...
 
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