Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[cepe]

As I said in hte Inaki thread, I'm catching up on this.

What some appear to be suggesting is that the King abdicates before Inaki is even charged with an offence in order to save the monarchy.

Surely if he did that, (1) it would say Inaki is guilty and (2) " I knew about it".

On the basis of being fair and given the King's statement that none are above the law, I think that he should do nothing until the legal process has been gone through - keeping well away from it and by no action on his part letting people think he knows the outcome. He needs to be as distant from it as possible (might be difficult but he needs to try).

If his son-in-law is found guilty then he takes the consequences and his daughter stays in the US.

Harsh but if "sacrificing" his daughter is necessary, then he should do so.

[Duke of Marmalade]

Originally Posted by EIIR

JC has the perfect excuse for abdicating - his health. It's clear that his health is deteriorating and his mobility is greatly reduced as a result of his hip problems. Abdication need not be attributed to the ongoing scandal, all he would need to say is that his doctors have advised him to cut down significantly on his work and that, to provide the Spanish with a full-time head of state he is stepping aside for his son. I'm sure some would look at it as an admission of guilt, but his health problems would be just as plausible.

His health - the part that matters, the mental part - is perfectly fine. For somebody who understands this role as for life, the decline of physical health doesnt matter. Like in Britain - I can imagine QEII going towards her mother's age record and Charles standing in for her for the things she is too frail to do. She would never abdicate because of physical decline.

Abdication would be the worst option for JC and the monarchy as an institution at this time.

[Artemisia]

I have to agree; abdicating is the worst thing Juan Carlos can do right. In a way, it'd be like a captain abandoning his sinking ship before anyone else. The King has to steer the Monarchy clear of this storm and only then, if he wants it, think of an abdication.

[Duke of Marmalade]

Abdication only works out of a very, very stable position or by tradition, like in the Netherlands. In a similar timespan people will be expecting WA to hand over to Amalia. But in case of trouble and major republican movement, its a dangerous thing to do, even in case of the Netherlands (should the climate change in the next decades), where at present the monarchy is very popular, not at least because the heir married a woman who perfectly fitted into the dutch idea of how the future queen should be.

Spain has its own problems, unlike the other monarchies. Despite having a perfectly groomed heir, he or the SRF in general were unable over the years to really convince or wow the public in favour of the institution to remain. Its not so much about Felipe himself but about the system in general. JC brought democracy by monarchy (in the beginning, he held political power that he inherited from Franco, which helped to tackle the most urgent issues, that he only gave up with the renewal of the constitution), what would it be needed for now?

Other countries will face other problems, after parent generation has gone: Heirs or consorts not being up to the task or their offspring unwilling to live a royal life under scrutiny without a real purpose. I wonder how royal parents feel to put such a weight on the heir/esses shoulders.

This generation, the next or the next after that, sooner or later I dont see any of the european monarchies to remain, Spain might be among the first to go.

[cepe]

This may take some pressure off in the short term. The public hate corrupt politicians more than anyone else. Spanish PM accused of corruption

BBC News - Spain PM Mariano Rajoy denies 'false' slush fund claim

[cepe]

Latest from the BBC on the problems facing the Spanish PM. The reason for putting it in here is to highlight that the problems raised re corruption and the future of the monarchy are spreading in terms of government

BBC News - Spanish protests after PM Rajoy denies slush fund claim

[ANNIE_S]

From El Mundo:

From "juancarlists" to "Felipists".
Is is the time of the Prince?
-The King´s surgery is a political event of the first order.
- Politicians have been unable to regulate something as fundamental as the succession.
(*)

Traductor de Google

Original: ¿Es la hora del Príncipe? | Op-Blogs | elmundo.es

(*) Javier Castro-Villacañas is a journalist. He has just published the book: "The failure of the Monarchy".

[An Ard Ri]

Originally Posted by ANNIE_S

From El Mundo:

From "juancarlists" to "Felipists".
Is is the time of the Prince?
-The King´s surgery is a political event of the first order.
- Politicians have been unable to regulate something as fundamental as the succession.
(*)

Traductor de Google

Original: ¿Es la hora del Príncipe? | Op-Blogs | elmundo.es

(*) Javier Castro-Villacañas is a journalist. He has just published the book: "The failure of the Monarchy".

Somehow I think there are more "Juan Carlists" over "Felipists" ,Felipe I'm sure will make a great King but I wouldn't like the assocation of the NOOS scandal going into a new reign.

[EIIR]

I think perhaps they're suggesting that those who are supportive of the monarchy generally may now see Felipe as the best chance of seeing the institution into the future, as opposed to being passionate believers in Felipe personally. Juan Carlos is no longer the 'jewel in the crown' that he was previously, in fact he's potentially part of the problem.

[lula]

It does not say that, it is more a reflection of a legal problem, which is negative for Prince Felipe.

Spain lacks a statute of the Royal Family with the laws concerning the Royal Family. The abdication, waivers or even obligations and rights of the Crown Prince, are not regulated by law.

The situation of the royal family in recent months shows that the regulation is required, but the current political and institutional situation makes very difficult to do it now.

[tamta]

Originally Posted by Duke of Marmalade

This generation, the next or the next after that, sooner or later I dont see any of the european monarchies to remain, Spain might be among the first to go.

This is an ending that has been predicted ever since the end of the First World War; yet a century later all of the monarchies that survived the post-WWI period are still in place, precisely because of their ability to re-invent themselves, and successfully respond to those very tasks which you question they will be able to in the coming generation.. In fact, the peculiar thing about the crisis that European economies and societies are currently undergoing, is that while it has enhanced questioning of the role of politicians elected with popular vote, it has rather led large majorities in the monarchical states to esteem stability in these societies as represented by their monarchies (I was reading a good analysis about this on the web a few weeks ago which unfortunately I can't find right now..) In no monarchical country -other than Spain- in Europe today is the monarchy weeker than what it was 10 years ago -and that includes not only the 'comeback' of the British RF's popularity, but also the way that the Swedish one has come through its own problems, or even the esteem that the institution continues to enjoy in otherwise rapidly-disintegrating Belgium..

As for Spain, I agree it is a whole different case -where the monarchy was restituted while the monarchical culture had eclipsed, and has been solely based ever since on the popularity of its members, rather than on the roots of the institution in Spanish society and history or anything such..
Yet I still don't see what causes such alarm -yes, the King has had a bad year (for most of which he only has himself to blame), but what tangible sign has there been that there is a strong and vibrant republican movement or agenda in Spanish politics at the moment? (In fact I feel that until the hunting affair, they were handling even his son in law's scandal quite descently in the eyes of the public..) Don't mix it with separatism -this has been there for much longer and is not primarily targeting the monarchy, but the Spanish state per se..
Of course I am not from Spain and I have a very selective picture of what is going on here; so I wish to ask those who feel otherwise to substantiate it.

[NGalitzine]

Would Spain even survive the turbulence of overthrowing the monarchy? If such drastic changes were to happen would it not be likely that Catalonia and perhaps other provinces would decide to go it alone?

[tamta]

I found this documentary on youtube about the king, but it's a french production.

Juan Carlos, le roi des Espagnols - Secrets d'Histoire - YouTube

does anyone know more about this? has it been played anywhere with subtitles? who produced it, does is it available on dvd? it seems very interesting...

[Duke of Marmalade]

A Weakening Bond Between King Juan Carlos and Spain - SPIEGEL ONLINE

[tamta]

The Spiegel article hits it right on the point.

Spaniards are not monarchists in the way Britons or other Northern Europeans are; with Spanish society having entered modernity in the 20th century without the monarchy being part of its institutional structure and culture, the link went amiss. When the monarchy was restored it was not based on legitimacy stemming from historical or cultural past (perhaps ignoring the role that these factors could have on its solidification in modern Spanish society far more than what it should, but that's a different discussion), but on the personality of Juan Carlos, his role in restoring and securing democracy and how well he and his family functioned within it. It seems that the royal house had chosen to embed its role in modern Spanish culture, consciousness and society through that road alone -and possibly, if things had kept the way they were for another 20 or 30 years, this might have been the case. But so far, for the 40 years that have passed since the restoration of democracy, it remained for most part a personal, rather than institutional bond -relying on how well the members of the royal family perfomed their role.

Then the crisis erupted, the whole structure of the Spanish state undergoes questioning and challenges of legitimacy, and the monarchy could not be spared of the climate -at least to some degree, even if just moderate in the beginning. I think most would agree that the popularity of both the institution and the king survived pretty decently both scandals concerning his sons-in-law and his daughters' affairs with them. This proves that they were not teleologically meant to be 'swept' by the crisis..

And then, this comes up -the Botswana affair and all described and intervened since. Enormously sad and even hard to believe as it may be, that this whole bond which had led the Spaniards only a few years ago to vote the King in a popular newspaper as 'the greatest figure of their history' (an obvious emotional exaggeration) would demise so swiftly, it is nonetheless true. As is the fact that they (the royals), and particularly the King, have NO ONE to blame for all this but themselves. The 'incident' last year was more than a mistake -it was utterly stupid. He behaved, while a whole country was raging in a crisis, and in the midst of an era where celebrities find it hard to keep any secret, like a 19th century (or even older) monarch who can lead a life completely irrelevant to that which his subjects know of him, and completely unaccountable for it all.

I guess they have to pay the bill now. This might range from falling from grace in the eyes of a good part of the population for a good period (with politicians probably to follow in questioning the monarchy); the King abdicating in favor of his son -if the latter manages to pull through the storm better than his father-; or even, sadly, abolition.

The only thing that might work in their favor, is that while opposing public sentiment fluctuates, institutions which share some support in their respective societies (ans I hope and believe that the monarchy will retain support among a good portion of Spanish society no matter what) are not so easy to dissolve. The debate and the process is hard, requires commitment from those against them, and is rather divisive for public life. I can't see indeed why Spanish society with all its problems right now would choose to go down that road at this moment in history.

Should they still have a period of grace ahead, they better work a plausible scenario to improve their lot -whether that means passing the ball smoothly and with a good excuse to the next generation, or, somehow, restoring the prestige lost.

If their brains are not fit for responding to such a challenge, or in fact for much more than last year's behavior, then they simply have it coming...

[ANNIE_S]

Fresh news about new polls:

Support for the King falls, especially among the young.
The Prince has an aproval rating among citizens well above his father.

article:
Traductor de Google

The poll. This is about colectives and individuals, I mean, Spaniards has been asked to valore (aproved/disaproved) groups such as doctors, Army, University, ONG´s, lawyers, television, the Church, of course gobernment and political parties...and the King and the Prince. They are in a pink colour.
The King, at almost the same level as government, banks and Church
http://ep00.epimg.net/politica/image...rio_grande.png

[ANNIE_S]

Another article, with interesting contributions to understand the current crisis situation in Spain at every level, but especially about the Monarchy:

What is in crisis and what keeps Spain.
What keeps society away from going to chaos is the strenght of civil society.

Traductor de Google

PD: I have to apologize. I know Google Translator doesn´t make great translations from Spanish to English. If anybody knows a better online translator, I would be grateful if you meke me know

[ANNIE_S]

And more:
Traductor de Google

About the Monarchy/Republic debate: Traductor de Google

This last article strenghten my personal opinion that, if the Monarchy wants to continue being the political system in Spain, the King must abdicate soon. If things continue like they are they´re now, we´ll see many more articles like this one in the next months.

Things are changing very fast, I think.

[cepe]

Annie S - thank you for all this info. Is any alternative being proposed to the monarchy? And is it the monarchy or Juan Carlos?

[ANNIE_S]

Originally Posted by cepe

Annie S - thank you for all this info. Is any alternative being proposed to the monarchy? And is it the monarchy or Juan Carlos?

What do you mean with if is it the Monarchy of Juan Carlos?

If you mean if it is the Monarchy or just King Juan Carlos the problem to the ones that have written those articles, I think it depends of the article (and the writer).

One of them (the last one I´ve mentioned) is clearly favouring a Republic as the neccessary change to the current situation.

The others (the ones that position themshelves) are more in favour of an abdication for now. At least, that´s what they insinuate in their articles.