Emperor Akihito and his abdication

[Tatiana Maria]

https://politiken.dk/udland/art6397...s-premierminister-ud-på-den-politiske-mødding

The very national-conservative PM Shinzo Abe is in trouble!
He has been involved in a number of scandals as well as being sidelined foreign politically by USA in regards to North Korea - not to mention that he is very unpopular in Japan's neighboring countries!
As such he general standing combined with his party dropping significantly in the opinion polls suggests that he may not survive his party's general assembly in the autumn this year. - Even though he is a very skilled survivor, there are limits to how many lives a cat has...

My guess is that Abe survives, but if he does not run for a third term, the favored candidate to win the party's leadership election is Fumio Kishida, a member of the same ultranationalist group as Abe (Nippon Kaigi).

How may that influence the abdication?
IMO there can be two ways:
A) The national-conservative government is too busy with political infighting and in establishing the authority of a very possible new leader, that the government prefer to have the whole abdication issue over and done with as soon as possible, preferably yesterday.
The abdication should run as smoothly as possibly - which means there is a good chance the court can negotiate a better deal than otherwise, simply because the government top is distracted.
B) The national conservative government see the abdication and proclaiming a new emperor as a most welcome distraction - that should be celebrated in as patriotic spirit as possible, with all the traditional national Japanese virtues going full throttle.

Both (A) and (B) would seem to be prudent approaches for the government to take. It would be interesting to see if the court would wish to negotiate; I'm not sure whether to believe the IHA's claims that both the emperor and the government desire that the abdication be kept low-key.

But many things also depends on who will take over, and what fractions will support the new PM.
A new PM needs to change course in order to get their voters back and hopefully attract more. And this is where the question of female succession may come in through the side door. Simply by appealing to women and especially young women as segment worth cultivating. - After all a considerable segment of the core voters of the national conservative government is dying out - literally. Even if man of them are very influential indeed, the Grim Reaper gets them eventually.

If Shinzo Abe continues it will be from a markedly weaker position.

Abe and his party in fact run stronger with younger voters than older voters.

Do the young lean right? Mainichi polls show strong youth support for Abe, LDP - The Mainichi

In the first poll, roughly 40 percent of those over 70 and in their 40s, and less than 40 percent of respondents in other age groups said they supported the Cabinet. Meanwhile, nearly half of teen voters and those in their 20s said they backed the Abe administration. In the second poll as well, roughly 40 percent of teens and people in their 20s and 30s supported the Cabinet, as compared to less than 40 percent of those aged 40-plus.

The LDP's approval rate was also highest among teens and those in their 20s, standing at nearly 40 percent in the first survey and around 30 percent in the second. This stood out from the less than 30 percent in the first and roughly 30 percent in the second survey among those aged 30 to 69.

No matter who Abe's ultimate successor may be, the likelihood that the succession and membership laws will be overhauled anytime soon is low, in my opinion.

1) It would not pay political dividends: Opposition to female succession and branches is important to nationalist-conservative voters, while imperial issues do not play an important role in the behavior of any other voter group.

2) In the years to come, Fumihito and Kiko will be the Crown Prince and Crown Princess, Hisahito will be a teenager raised in the position of future emperor, and Aiko will be at university educating herself to earn her own living as a likely future commoner. By that time, applying gender-neutral rules would have a strong impact on the imperial family, commensurate with the reintroduction of female succession in Denmark in 1953 (which was similar insofar as it displaced a man in his fifties and a teenage boy who were considered future kings, though Aiko would be much older than Margrethe was when she became the heiress to the throne).

 

[Muhler]

Thanks Tatiana Marie.

I guess my basic info is a bit out of date then. It's IMO pretty worrying when young men in larger number feel attracted to the kind of nationalist conservatism represented by Abe and his party.
The future emperor Naruhito may have considerable problems smoothing out the foreign relation problems, caused by this government. - But that's for the political thread of course.

I thought (and hoped!) the main ultra-nationalists was the old generation. The grandchildren of those who fought (and committed atrocities) during WWII.
In contrast to their fathers, they grew up during the Japanese "wirtschaftswunder" and didn't know how it was to be bombed. The old generation (many of them top executives in major businesses) have had a tendency to go into denial in regards to the past. - Like Nanking was not nearly as bad as the Chinese claim, and only a handful of Korean women were "prostituted" and Hiroshima was really an unwarranted war-crime and so on.
- That hasn't exactly endeared the Japanese to their neighbors!

So if the young men are jumping on that bandwagon too...

Oh well, a short reply turned into a lecture. ?

 

[Prisma]

I'm not surprised. The younger generation grew up using textbooks that gloss over Japan's war activities. No one wants to face the uncomfortable truth except to emphasize Japan's suffering from the atomic bombs. Jobs/economy is most important to younger voters. Plus the opposition parties are weak. During last year's elections, an article quoted a voter (I don't remember if he was young or old) who didn't like Abe or LDP but would vote for them anyway as there was "no alternative." Better to keep the stats quo than a new leader/government.

INTERVIEW: Open Discussions Necessary for New Era Name in Japan - JIJI PRESS

[…]

Nobuo Ishihara, who served as deputy chief cabinet secretary when the Japanese era name was changed from Showa to Heisei in 1989, has called for open discussions on the name of a new era […]

"This time, the Imperial succession is set to take place while the Emperor is alive, so we can hold discussions in a very open manner," Ishihara, 91, now head of the Research Institute for Local Government, said in an interview with Jiji Press, stressing the need to ensure transparency in the debates on the new era name, and ceremonies and other events related to the handover of the throne.

[…]

After Emperor Hirohito, the father of Emperor Akihito and posthumously called Emperor Showa, was diagnosed as cancer, the Japanese government secretly started, about a year before the demise of Emperor Hirohito, preparations for his funeral and enthronement ceremonies for the current Emperor, as well as work to select members of a panel of experts for deciding an era name, Ishihara said.

[…]

News Navigator: What are the Three Sacred Treasures of Japan? - The Mainichi

[…] Question: What exactly are the Three Sacred Treasures?

Answer: They are the sacred mirror Yata no Kagami, the sacred sword Kusanagi no Tsurugi and the sacred jewel Yasakani no Magatama. They have been passed down from generation to generation upon succession of the throne. In Japanese mythology, the sun goddess Amaterasu is said to have bestowed them on her grandson Ninigi-no-Mikoto.

[…]

Q: How are the treasures passed on?

A: When Emperor Akihito was enthroned in January 1989, the sword and jewel were handed down to him by placing them on a platform in front of him in the Matsu-no-Ma (State Room), in a ceremony called "Kenji to Shokei no Gi." The mirror remained in the Kashiko Dokoro, one of the three Palace Sanctuaries at the Imperial Palace, when it was passed on. […]

Q: Are the sword and the jewel normally kept at the Imperial Palace?

A: There is a sword and a jewel in the Kenji-no-Ma (Treasure Room) of the palace where Emperor Akihito lives. However, the mirror and sword in the Imperial Palace are said to be replicas. It is said that the real mirror is kept at Ise Grand Shrine in Mie Prefecture, while the original sword is kept at Atsuta Shrine in Nagoya.

[…]

 

[Kitty1224]

Emperor and Empress are great!

 

[Tatiana Maria]

INTERVIEW: Open Discussions Necessary for New Era Name in Japan - JIJI PRESS

Unfortunately, I doubt any open discussions on any of the abdication and ascension events will be granted by the government.

State does not plan to have female members of Imperial family attend key enthronement ceremony | The Japan Times

Japan to celebrate emperor's accession in rites, parade in Oct. 2019 - The Mainichi

Gov't approves plan for imperial succession rites next year - The Mainichi
Editorial: Abdication, enthronement rites should match times while regarding traditions - The Mainichi

The government has decided not to allow female members of the Imperial Family to join the "Kenji to Shokei no Gi" ceremony, in line with tradition. This decision is believed to have been made on the grounds that women who have no right to ascend to the throne should not be present at a ceremony symbolizing the transfer of the throne. At the same time, the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was probably avoiding giving momentum to debate in favor of accepting reigning empresses and emperors descended from female imperial lines -- which could have resulted from allowing female members to attend.

In contrast, the government is considering allowing female Cabinet ministers, currently numbering two, to take part in the rite on the grounds they are unrelated to the imperial succession and would be attending as observers.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said only male imperial family members will attend the ritual on May 1 next year, in which the new emperor will inherit traditional regalia, based on the example of the previous succession in 1989.

Suga declined to elaborate on another contentious point of whether minor imperial family members, specifically the emperor's 11-year-old grandson Prince Hisahito, will join a series of events. It has been customary for minor members not to attend succession rites.

The explanations of the government are far from consistent.

Because female imperial family members have no right to ascend the throne, they cannot be present at the rite, but because cabinet ministers have no right to ascend the throne, they (the males at least) can be present at the rite?

The government will exclude female imperial family members in line with tradition, but they will consider allowing Hisahito to attend in disregard of tradition?

 

[Somebody]

In my opinion also the current empress, the future empress, proncess Kiko and all former commoners turned princesses are also unrelated to imperial succession, so no reason why they cannot attend .

 

[Tatiana Maria]

In my opinion also the current empress, the future empress, proncess Kiko and all former commoners turned princesses are also unrelated to imperial succession, so no reason why they cannot attend .

We might even inquire why, if female succession is as preposterous as the government claims it to be, the Akishino, Mikasa, and Takamado sisters are not considered "unrelated" enough to the imperial succession to attend.

 

[Somebody]

We might even inquire why, if female succession is as preposterous as the government claims it to be, the Akishino, Mikasa, and Takamado sisters are not considered "unrelated" enough to the imperial succession to attend.

Great point. They cannot ascend the throne so no problem at all

 

[Prisma]

Japan's Current Emperor to Be Absent from Accession Ceremonies - JIJI PRESS

Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko will be absent from ceremonies related to Crown Prince Naruhito's accession to the Chrysanthemum Throne on May 1, 2019, a senior Imperial Household Agency official said Monday.

[...]

 

[Prisma]

The Takamikura and Michodai thrones will be disassembled and transferred from Kyoto Imperial Palace to Tokyo Imperial Palace for restoration.
Disassembly will begin in June and the thrones' pieces could be in Tokyo by July or August. Land transport is possible this time unlike 30 years ago when the thrones were airlifted to Tokyo due to extremist concerns.
Repairing the lacquer paint and gold work degradation will take 6 months. The IHA will hire a private contractor in Tokyo for the restoration. Reassembly will begin in September next year.

Sources: Sankei, Asahi

ETA: Throne to be moved to Tokyo from Kyoto in Aug. ahead of accession - The Mainichi

[...]

The 8-ton, 6.5-meter-high canopied throne is expected to be transported by a private company and undergo repairs at the Imperial Palace for the Oct. 22 state ritual next year [...]

Past emperors have ascended to the Takamikura throne during their enthronement rites, with use of the throne believed to have begun in the eighth century.

The current structure has been used since the 1915 enthronement ceremony of Emperor Yoshihito (1879-1926), posthumously known as Emperor Taisho. It is now kept at the Shishinden hall of the Kyoto Imperial Palace

[...]

The government is set to spend about 500 million yen ($4.6 million) earmarked in the state's budget through March 2019 for transportation and repair of the throne.

[...]

Once the repair work is finished, the throne will be moved to the Matsu-no-Ma state room, where the ceremony will be held. [...]

 

[Tatiana Maria]

The Takamikura and Michodai thrones will be disassembled and transferred from Kyoto Imperial Palace to Tokyo Imperial Palace for restoration.
Disassembly will begin in June and the thrones' pieces could be in Tokyo by July or August. Land transport is possible this time unlike 30 years ago when the thrones were airlifted to Tokyo due to extremist concerns.
[...]

Does that indicate the terrorism threat level has been lowered since 30 years ago? I hope so.

 

[Prisma]

The Takamikura and Michodai thrones were shown to the press on April 17th.

Mainichi and Sankei galleries

Throne to be used in accession ceremony for new emperor shown to press - The Mainichi

ETA: I like the KyodoNews video below better. More details.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

They look stunning.

 

[Prisma]

Rolls-Royce in Akihito's parade now too old for son's celebration: The Asahi Shimbun

A Rolls-Royce convertible worth 40 million yen ($367,000) can now only gather dust in an Imperial Household Agency garage, putting government officials in a bind over transportation for the biggest celebration parade of 2019.

The luxury car was purchased 28 years ago for Emperor Akihito’s parade following his ascension.

[...]

However, the car in its current state is too old and in no shape to run on a public street, let alone in the parade for Naruhito scheduled for Oct. 22 that year.

The Rolls-Royce convertible was used when Naruhito and Crown Princess Masako were married in 1993.

But since then, it has not been driven for a special occasion.

[...]

When Akihito’s father, Hirohito, took the throne, he was carried in a horse and carriage at his parade.

But a car was used for Akihito’s parade for security reasons and because government officials thought that using horses could be risky in the event of an emergency.

[...]

 

[Ista]

What a shame, that's a gorgeous car. It's also a little surprising, since Queen Elizabeth's household seems to manage to keep very old cars going for a long time. I wonder what the specifics are (not that we're ever likely to know).

 

[Muhler]

There is no way in this world an only 28 year old Rolls Royce is too old!

I fear it has simply been left to rust, perhaps even under damp conditions, which means wiring, engine and upholstery is in poor condition.
It is simply nothing short of a crime! - Both against a Rolls Royce and because so much money has been poured down the drain.

Now if I were to decide, this would be the car to replace the Rolls Royce. A Mercedes-Benz 770K, 1938.
https://sinsheim.technik-museum.de/assets/uploads/images/150/ATM02Oldtimer2009_11_0002.jpg
Notice the huge get-out-of-the-way! horns in front.

It's beautiful!
It's massive!
It's so way over the top it's classy!?
And it's a Mercedes!

 

[Ista]

That Mercedes is wonderful, but I'll admit to being partial to the Rolls

I also agree that it makes no sense that the car wouldn't be useable unless there had been some serious neglect, or that there is actually another reason that they don't want to use it, and its age is just an excuse.

 

[ROYAL NORWAY]

Thanks Muhler! That Mercedes is indeed wonderful.

Well, perhaps the IHA can ask the Norwegian court if they can borrow one of our two open beauties:

The Iconic A1 - Buick Roadmaster from 1939: pic 1 - pic 2 - pic 3

A5 - Lincoln Continental from 1966: pic 1 - pic 2

And if someone wondered? No, I was not serious.

 

[Muhler]

However, I am!

Ah, but they are cars for the proletariat.

No, no, A Cadillac Phaeton 1932.
It's smaller than the Mercedes, but still very stylish!
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/27/72/61/277261ff551b1d98685d5207719703a4.jpg

 

[ROYAL NORWAY]

Of course you are!

--------------------

And then to the serious part, if we can call it that:

Well, the IHA really likes to make thing difficult, doesn't they?

From the article:

Imperial Household Agency employees have occasionally polished the body of the car in the garage.

Wow, have they really bothered to do that? I am impressed.

However, it has been many years since the vehicle underwent a safety inspection.

Perhaps they can do it now, not that difficult, is it?

“We can no longer secure parts for the car for maintenance,” said an official at an agency section that manages the vehicle. “We have not started up the engine for a long time.”

Well, perhaps they should just try to start up the engine, not very difficult that either, is it?

Buying another luxury convertible for the parade is an option, but the government recently has been watching its budget.

Well, if the government has that little money, perhaps they can borrow one or something (again, not that difficult).

 

[Ista]

It does make me wonder a bit what is really going on. I find it really hard to believe that a car that was an important part of two important imperial events would be allowed to moulder away without any attempt at maintenance, but perhaps there really wasn't the money in the budget to provide upkeep.

Which brings us to the next question: so what kind of car is going to be provided for the new emperor's enthronement parade?

 

[Muhler]

A Japanese car. - It's after all a nationalist government.


Sounds to me like it was dumped in some remote corner somewhere - deliberately.
Okay, old cars can have their quirks, even when maintained. But a car from 1990 is not old. And a car of that quality from 1990 should not have quirks.

The DRF owns a large Rolls Royce from the 50's, which sometimes decides not to work. - That's a privilege a car that old can allow itself. But not a greenhorn from 1990.

And I simply cannot resist:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/47q1ThqmCs4/maxresdefault.jpg
A Horch 930 Cabriolet from 1939.
The Japanese will love it! The name alone is something all Japanese would love to pronounce!

 

[ROYAL NORWAY]

Which brings us to the next question: so what kind of car is going to be provided for the new emperor's enthronement parade?

Probably a new (or used) open car, similar to the old one.

And I simply cannot resist:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/47q1ThqmCs4/maxresdefault.jpg
A Horch 930 Cabriolet from 1939.
The Japanese will love it! The name alone is something all Japanese would love to pronounce!

Well, it had been interesting to see what those IHA guys would have said to that proposal (a red car).

 

[Muhler]

What's wrong with a red car?

 

[ROYAL NORWAY]

Nothing at all. ? ?

But to those conservative guys? Well, they would probably have jumped through the roof in shock.
And the equally conservative government had probably (but not in public) accused the IHA for destroying the monarchy or something (yes, I'm actually serious, I think).

 

[Prisma]

The car was unregistered in 2007.
Imperial Rolls can't be fixed | Nippon TV NEWS24 JAPAN

I wonder if the IHA would consider bringing back horses and carriage ... assuming they took proper care of the carriage and if the security situation is safer than Akihito's parade.

 

[Muhler]

We may hope! We may hope.

Otherwise they'll need to bring in sedan chairs.

 

[Prisma]

Mainichi has a 5 part series on the Emperor and Imperial activities.

Part 1: Politicians expected to play bigger role in next era name selection process - The Mainichi

Work by bureaucrats to select the next era name gained momentum in November 2011 when Emperor Akihito was hospitalized for bronchial pneumonia.

An official at the Cabinet Secretariat phoned scholars specializing in Chinese classics and Chinese history, among others, saying, "Let me confirm a location where we can quickly contact you." The official asked the scholars not to reveal what they talked about during the phone calls.

These scholars were unofficially commissioned by the government to come up with proposals on the name of a new era that will follow the current Heisei era. The Cabinet Secretariat official secretly called these scholars to confirm their contact information in case the government will need to officially commission the scholars to come up with new era name proposals.

In February 2012, Emperor Akihito underwent cardiac bypass surgery.

[…]

Then Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of the Democratic Party of Japan or the then chief Cabinet secretary did not know about the move, according to a source who was then a high-ranking official of the prime minister's office.

At the time, the condition of Emperor Akihito was far less serious than that of the late Emperor Hirohito, who vomited blood in September 1988. Therefore, bureaucrats at the Cabinet Secretariat apparently deemed it unnecessary to report the matter to politicians.

[…]

Politicians will likely get more deeply involved in the process leading up to the announcement of the next era name because Emperor Akihito will hand over the throne while he is alive.

[…]

Parts 2-3 are summaries about Emperor Akihito and CP Naruhito leading up to next year. I'm not quoting because the info is covered elsewhere.

Part 2: Emperor Akihito remaining active to culminate last year as symbol of State - The Mainichi

Part 3: Crown Prince Naruhito preparing for accession to the throne - The Mainichi

Part 4: Official titles converge on Prince Akishino as Imperial Family shrinks - The Mainichi

The list of Prince Akishino's activities on the Imperial Household Agency website is expansive, ranging from ceremonies to mark the formation of Japan's Olympic delegation for the Pyeongchang Winter Games and to commemorate the seventh anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, to events for organizations in which he serves as honorary president and university lectures.

[…] In all, the prince is honorary president of 13 organizations, which requires him to pay visits to various areas. Among them are the Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, whose work overlaps with his own field of research, and the Saiseikai Imperial Gift Foundation, Inc., [...]

In contrast, Crown Prince Naruhito holds the single title of honorary vice-president of the Japanese Red Cross Society. Emperor Akihito currently does not hold any official positions at such organizations.

Commenting on why such activities have fallen on the shoulders of Prince Akishino, an official from the Imperial Household Agency told the Mainichi Shimbun, "When it comes to the positions of Emperor and Crown Prince, it is difficult to take on official positions simply from the perspective of fairness, so branches of the Imperial Family that are in a comparatively free position have come to take them on."

[…] Prince Akishino will take over the role of visiting areas across Japan that Crown Prince Naruhito previously inherited from Emperor Akihito. [...] The problem is there is no obvious figure to take over the public duties and positions that Prince Akishino has fulfilled for years.

[…] The Imperial Household Agency [...] is also starting to consider decreasing the frequency of Prince Akishino's attendance at events and other such measures, on the grounds that the burden would be too great for him if his official duties were not reduced.

At a news conference in November last year, Prince Akishino was asked about the sharing of official duties, and he replied, "The situation is such that there is no place for me to turn over the things I am doing now. I would like to discuss this in degrees with His Imperial Highness the Crown Prince."

[…]

Unfortunately, Mainichi has not yet provided an English translation for part 5 which discusses rituals.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Mainichi has a 5 part series on the Emperor and Imperial activities.

Part 1: Politicians expected to play bigger role in next era name selection process - The Mainichi

[...]

Part 4: Official titles converge on Prince Akishino as Imperial Family shrinks - The Mainichi

[...]

However, the timing could be affected by the political situation as the Abe administration has been rocked by a series of scandals.

The government is now considering announcing the next era name sometime after a ceremony in February 2019 to celebrate the 30th anniversary of Emperor Akihito's ascension to the Imperial Throne. Initially, the government had been exploring the possibility of making the announcement sometime around summer this year. However, some have advised that the government should avoid making such an announcement shortly before the leadership election of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party this coming autumn.

First, has somebody promised that the Abe administration's scandals will cease by February 2019?

Secondly, it is also unclear to me how the era name announcement would disturb the leadership election.

Bureaucrats, who are supposed to be politically neutral, have taken the initiative in selecting a new era name. "It's a customary rule not to allow politicians to be involved in the selection process," said a former high-ranking official.
[…]
Politicians will likely get more deeply involved in the process leading up to the announcement of the next era name because Emperor Akihito will hand over the throne while he is alive.

I hope not. The next era name/Naruhito's posthumous name should not be perceived as a political message, regardless of whether that is accurate.

Sources close to the Imperial Household Agency say that the agency is considering translating "koshi" in English as "Crown Prince" to make it clear both in Japan and abroad that Prince Akishino will be the next Emperor.

What about the translation of Akihito and Michiko's titles following the abdication? That will present a dilemma since there is no word in English for a retired emperor or a wife of a retired emperor.

 

[Mbruno]

First, has somebody promised that the Abe administration's scandals will cease by February 2019?

Secondly, it is also unclear to me how the era name announcement would disturb the leadership election.



I hope not. The next era name/Naruhito's posthumous name should not be perceived as a political message, regardless of whether that is accurate.



What about the translation of Akihito and Michiko's titles following the abdication? That will present a dilemma since there is no word in English for a retired emperor or a wife of a retired emperor.

If we follow the rule used for retired bishops and now the retired Pope, he could be called “Emperor Emeritus”.