General Questions About The Ruling Family Of Abu Dhabi 1:

[feiraguy]

Hazza really is fading away, year after year; most of Tahnoun's work happens behind the scenes, there's nothing unusual going on*. I wonder if Abdullah will ever be presented with the role of Deputy PM, perhaps his loyalty will be rewarded

*Even in recent weeks there has been some speculation about Tahnoun's involvement in negotiations between the belligerents in the Syrian War. He is still the protagonist in national security affairs

It is likely that when Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed wins his first post in the Federal Cabinet or Executive Council, I believe MBZ will turn his eyes to Zayed and start grooming him.

About Hamdan bin MbR, this is exactly what I believe; he is expected to become Vice President and Prime Minister, but will be easily dominated by Bin Zayed, who will give many powers to Dhiyab and Hamdan bin MBZ; maybe Maktoum will have a certain spotlight too

 

[karmen_lii]

I think it is unlikely that Hamdan will be vice-president with Mansour after MRM's death

 

[whitepaper]

We can only speculate. We don't know. If that doesn't happen, it might hamper the trust between AD and Dubai and with other Emirates as well. Let's see.

 

[whitepaper]

Yes, Abdullah surely deserves some kind of appreciation in terms of good role, may be deputy CM. I have observed that he shares very good relationship with all his counterparts from diff countries. Who do you think has potential to replace him if he moves to a new role ?

Hamdan bin Zayed made back to back appearances sometime back and he is also not seen these days. Hazza, last i remember was seeing him attending some sports event with his daughter and at Eid prayers. Why do u think he was not uplifted by MBZ ? Has he got something against him ?

 

[feiraguy]

We can only speculate. We don't know. If that doesn't happen, it might hamper the trust between AD and Dubai and with other Emirates as well. Let's see.

I think it is unlikely that Hamdan will be vice-president with Mansour after MRM's death

I do not doubt Abu Dhabi's desire to centralize more and more power in its hands, but it is clear that such a move would affect the relationship between Abu Dhabi and the other emirates, especially Dubai.

I'm not sure it's worth making this move for a merely ceremonial post. The post of Prime Minister is theoretically much more important.

I believe that Hamdan, if he succeeds his father, will inherit his Vice President and Prime Minister positions.

 

[feiraguy]

Yes, Abdullah surely deserves some kind of appreciation in terms of good role, may be deputy CM. I have observed that he shares very good relationship with all his counterparts from diff countries. Who do you think has potential to replace him if he moves to a new role ?

Hamdan bin Zayed made back to back appearances sometime back and he is also not seen these days. Hazza, last i remember was seeing him attending some sports event with his daughter and at Eid prayers. Why do u think he was not uplifted by MBZ ? Has he got something against him ?

Yes, Abdullah is one of the most competent members of the family, his competence is recognized since the times when he was Minister of Information and Culture.

When the time comes for the President to remove Saif and Mansour from the posts of Deputy PM, perhaps the intention is to directly appoint his sons Dhiyab and Hamdan, in which case there will be no room for Abdullah

One scenario in which Abdullah becomes Deputy PM is if the President removes Mansour from that post, identifying that he is accumulating too many positions.

 

[whitepaper]

I think most probably Mansour would be let go off Deputy PM role, though VP role is ceremonial it's still giving him spotlight, power and authority. He is also chairman of Mubadala, minister of Presidential affairs, chairman of Judicial Dept of AD, Agriculture minister.
Will MBZ make one of his sons Minister of foreign affairs to replace Abdullah ?
What happens to Saif, Tahnoun, Mansour, Abdullah when MBZ wants to remove them and place his own sons and sons in law. In how many years you see this happening ? All of them are in mid and early 50s, they still have long career. There isnt much age difference between Mansour/Abdullah and Khaled, just 11-12 years. So when will they be forced to retire from important roles ?

 

[karmen_lii]

The question is, if Hamdan is to become deputy prime minister when mrm dies, will Mansor lose the post or will they become vice-president together.

 

[feiraguy]

Who do you think has potential to replace him if he moves to a new role ?

Hamdan bin Zayed made back to back appearances sometime back and he is also not seen these days. Hazza, last i remember was seeing him attending some sports event with his daughter and at Eid prayers. Why do u think he was not uplifted by MBZ ? Has he got something against him ?

I think most probably Mansour would be let go off Deputy PM role, though VP role is ceremonial it's still giving him spotlight, power and authority. He is also chairman of Mubadala, minister of Presidential affairs, chairman of Judicial Dept of AD, Agriculture minister.
Will MBZ make one of his sons Minister of foreign affairs to replace Abdullah ?
What happens to Saif, Tahnoun, Mansour, Abdullah when MBZ wants to remove them and place his own sons and sons in law. In how many years you see this happening ? All of them are in mid and early 50s, they still have long career. There isnt much age difference between Mansour/Abdullah and Khaled, just 11-12 years. So when will they be forced to retire from important roles ?

I would bet on Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed to replace him; it is a very strategic position, certainly Mohamed bin Zayed wants one of his sons or sons-in-law in it. In case none of the options is competent enough, keep an eye on Shakhbut bin Nahyan.

I don't think there's a problem with Hamdan and Hazza bin Zayed, look at them the same way you look at the elders Tahnoun, Saif and Surour bin Mohamed... they are respected figures, important to the family, they will eventually make public appearances even when the event involves international leaders, but they are no longer part of the government, they are not at the center of strategic decisions

I agree, I see this possibility of Abdullah replacing Mansour as Deputy PM, because all the brothers (Hazza, Tahnoun and Mansour) received new positions as a consolation prize, only Abdullah was left empty-handed. And as much as MBZ trusts Mansour, he has a LOT of power accumulated

Whitepaper, shortly after the death of Sheikh Zayed, Sheikhs Mubarak, Saif, Khalifa, Surour and Saeed bin Mohamed were already removed from ministerial positions, Hamdan bin Mohamed had already died, that is, the only brother kept in a position of authority was Tahnoun bin Mohamed , as Representative in Al Ain. Most of them were between 55 and 65 years old.
What will happen to "bin Zayed"? They will live the last 20/30 years of their lives retired and enjoying a billionaire fortune. One of them will become Representative in Al Ain (it was the position that Sheikh Zayed occupied before overthrowing Shakhboout, it must be an honor for them to inherit this position)... it could be Hazza, Tahnoun, Mansour or Abdullah

 

[whitepaper]

In other words, they will retire and live a luxury billionaire life which Fazza has already been living doing bare minimum work����.

One thing I appreciate about bin Zayed is they are hard working, passionate about making presence of their country. But as you said previously when main bloodline is established, other bloodlines will be sidelined. All they can do before they head towards retirement is to get their children into strategic marriages and secure their future, money will anyways be there.

Yes, MBZ gives so much respect to Tahnoun and brothers in Majlis. It's commendable.they are always there.

But I think after MRM, Fazza's transition to new roles VP and PM will not be smooth. Abu Dubai will make him agree to many matters internally i feel.

 

[whitepaper]

The question is, if Hamdan is to become deputy prime minister when mrm dies, will Mansor lose the post or will they become vice-president together.

Currently MRM is prime minister and vice president. Recently Mansour is also made vice president and hence mrm and Mansour both share the vice president role. After MRM, Hamdan will become prime minister and vice president(this role he will share with Mansour). So Mansour will not lose his role as a result of Hamdan becoming prime minister and vice president. Currently MRM as a prime minister has 3 deputy prime minister's Saif, Mansour and his own son Maktoum. MBZ can change these deputy prime minister's anytime. He might not change Maktoum but can remove Saif and Mansour and can appoint his own sons. That possibility is there

 

[feiraguy]

The question is, if Hamdan is to become deputy prime minister when mrm dies, will Mansor lose the post or will they become vice-president together.

Traditionally, the Vice President and Prime Minister are held by the Ruler of Dubai. In an unprecedented move, Mansour was appointed joint Vice President with Mohamed bin Rashid; the most likely is that Hamdan will succeed his father in both positions, and that Mansour will have this position of Vice President until Mohamed bin Zayed deems it necessary

There is a possibility that Hamdan and Mansour will share this position after Mohamed bin Rashid's death, we do not know what Mohamed bin Zayed's plans are.

 

[feiraguy]

But I think after MRM, Fazza's transition to new roles VP and PM will not be smooth. Abu Dubai will make him agree to many matters internally i feel.

You can be sure this is already being discussed

You had asked me how long this generation transition process will last... I believe in 10 years max.

How many "bin Zayed" do we have in executive positions today? Mohamed as President, Tahnoun as NSA, Mansour as VP, DPM and Minister of the Presidential Court, Abdullah as Foreign Minister and Saif as Minister of the Interior, that's just five. Two months ago it was seven; Hazza and Hamed were kicked out from the Executive Council

The question is how long will it take for MBZ to prepare worthy replacements for Saif, Tahnoun, Mansour and Abdullah

 

[whitepaper]

What I think is Abu Dhabi recognises MRMs visionary leadership and how he transformed Dubai into a world class city. There is no one person from AD who can take credit for the city's growth, but in Dubai all the credit goes to one man MRM. Those who don't follow politics and never been to UAE even think Dubai is it's capital. Growth of tourism in UAE can be attributed to Dubai only. As you said above there are atleast 5 strong men in AD, let's include Khaled, then it's 6. How many from Dubai, just 1. So after MRM, am sure MBZ will renegotiate the terms with Fazza during his transition to his Father's roles and will take take some power away from Dubai. This is my guess. Am not sure how strong Fazza and Maktoum will stand after their father. I would not even be surprised if AD tightens it's grip on Dubai and start interfering in the internal matters of Dubai after MRM.

 

[rexbine]

What I think is Abu Dhabi recognises MRMs visionary leadership and how he transformed Dubai into a world class city. There is no one person from AD who can take credit for the city's growth, but in Dubai all the credit goes to one man MRM. Those who don't follow politics and never been to UAE even think Dubai is it's capital. Growth of tourism in UAE can be attributed to Dubai only. As you said above there are atleast 5 strong men in AD, let's include Khaled, then it's 6. How many from Dubai, just 1. So after MRM, am sure MBZ will renegotiate the terms with Fazza during his transition to his Father's roles and will take take some power away from Dubai. This is my guess. Am not sure how strong Fazza and Maktoum will stand after their father. I would not even be surprised if AD tightens it's grip on Dubai and start interfering in the internal matters of Dubai after MRM.

It would also be interesting to see who will become the next Crown Prince of Dubai.

 

[whitepaper]

Feiraguy - read this and let me know your thoughts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-leader-tests-u-s-ties-with-moves-toward-russia-china-ecf9b779

 

[feiraguy]

Feiraguy - read this and let me know your thoughts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-leader-tests-u-s-ties-with-moves-toward-russia-china-ecf9b779

Thanks, I'll read later and let you know what I think

It would also be interesting to see who will become the next Crown Prince of Dubai.

Of course... the first question is which of the brothers would be the heir? The eldest (Rashid) or the son of the Al Maktoum wife (Mohamed)?

Could Hamdan appoint an even underage heir? Or he would be without an heir for a few years until the children come of age. Or he would appoint Maktoum as heir until the boys turn 18?

Remembering that Qatar has not had an heir for 10 years.

And, of course, there's the scenario where Maktoum becomes the heir to actually succeed Hamdan. There is also a scenario in which Maktoum succeeds his father.

And what would Abu Dhabi's wishes be in this regard? Do they want Hamdan in the VP and PM roles? Or would it be advantageous for Maktoum to occupy these positions? Or Hamdan as VP and Maktoum as PM is a possibility

 

[feiraguy]

worthy replacements for Saif, Tahnoun, Mansour and Abdullah

What are your guesses for each position, Whitepaper?

 

[whitepaper]

Thanks, I'll read later and let you know what I think



Of course... the first question is which of the brothers would be the heir? The eldest (Rashid) or the son of the Al Maktoum wife (Mohamed)?

Could Hamdan appoint an even underage heir? Or he would be without an heir for a few years until the children come of age. Or he would appoint Maktoum as heir until the boys turn 18?

Remembering that Qatar has not had an heir for 10 years.

And, of course, there's the scenario where Maktoum becomes the heir to actually succeed Hamdan. There is also a scenario in which Maktoum succeeds his father.

And what would Abu Dhabi's wishes be in this regard? Do they want Hamdan in the VP and PM roles? Or would it be advantageous for Maktoum to occupy these positions? Or Hamdan as VP and Maktoum as PM is a possibility

Won't late Rashid MRMs son junior MRM not be considered for CPs role ? His father missed the opputunity for whatever reasons, what would happen to his son ?

Has it ever happened in Emirates or Gulf history that someone was made CP as rulers sons were underage and replaced once when they became adult ? I think Moroccon CP is underage and had been CP since very young age right ?

 

[whitepaper]

What are your guesses for each position, Whitepaper?

Honestly am still not there to make these guesses. I had been observing MBZ and his full siblings and Saif only. And MBZs last two sons are yet to make their presence felt and have no achievements till date, so would need more time to assess them. I would just guess that the last one Zayed might be put into something related to military.

 

[feiraguy]

Won't late Rashid MRMs son junior MRM not be considered for CPs role ? His father missed the opputunity for whatever reasons, what would happen to his son ?

Has it ever happened in Emirates or Gulf history that someone was made CP as rulers sons were underage and replaced once when they became adult ? I think Moroccon CP is underage and had been CP since very young age right ?

I am referring to Rashid bin Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Rashid.

Mohamed bin Rashid bin Mohamed bin Rashid has no chance in terms of succession.

The situation in Morocco is different, Morocco has a line of succession, issues such as career, competence and age do not matter, different from the Gulf countries.

 

[Puchu]

I am referring to Rashid bin Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Rashid.

Mohamed bin Rashid bin Mohamed bin Rashid has no chance in terms of succession.

I would refer Mohammed bin Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid. His mother is prevalent now. If he had no son except rashid, then it would be him. Now bin hamdans have age gap of less than 2 years. Though i believe rashid will be deputy and Mohammed will be the main ruler.

Rashid's son will be type of ambassador on behalf of his grandfather or his uncles.

Hope these bin hamdans will be away from social sites. Wish they use it on official purposes only.

 

[feiraguy]

Honestly am still not there to make these guesses. I had been observing MBZ and his full siblings and Saif only. And MBZs last two sons are yet to make their presence felt and have no achievements till date, so would need more time to assess them. I would just guess that the last one Zayed might be put into something related to military.

So, Mohamed bin Zayed gained notoriety as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, it was his competence in this office that led him to be Deputy Crown Prince; perhaps it is Zayed's desire to follow in his father's footsteps, perhaps he sees himself as the heir to that position. It is possible that Zayed pursue a career outside the executive bodies of the Federal Cabinet and the Executive Council, but in the Armed Forces.

About the Ministry of Interior, it is a very specific ministry for police officers, Mohamed bin Tahnoun bin Mohamed is an obvious choice.

Dhiyab was Chief of the Crown Prince's Court, I see him as a natural heir to the position of Chief of the Presidential Court, that would mean removing Mansour from that post.

On the positions of NSA and Minister of Foreign Affairs, we have Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed and Mohamed bin Hamad bin Tahnoun who are present at almost all meetings with international leaders.

But we can't rule out Nahyan bin Saif bin Mohamed, how long does MBZ intend to keep him in Riyadh? Zayed bin Hamdan bin Zayed can also get more strategic posts than that of Head of Media. We don't know yet the plans for Khalifa bin Sultan bin Hamdan, we'll see.

 

[Puchu]

I feel he will appoint nahyan bin saif, zayed bin mohamed, khalifa bin sultan in the same way he did for his 3 brothers. May be he is planning or observing them. This khalifa bin sultan still doesn't have much appearances, i think he/nahyan will be the advisor. What do you think?

 

[whitepaper]

Who is khalifa bin sultan bin Hamdan. He doesn't seem to be son in law of MBZ ..
Edit: okay, he is the one MBZs youngest daughter is engaged to. Someone mentioned in the earlier comments.

 

[feiraguy]

I feel he will appoint nahyan bin saif, zayed bin mohamed, khalifa bin sultan in the same way he did for his 3 brothers. May be he is planning or observing them. This khalifa bin sultan still doesn't have much appearances, i think he/nahyan will be the advisor. What do you think?

It depends, perhaps the intention is for Nahyan bin Saif to be a career diplomat. I remember Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who was ambassador to Washington for 22 years (1983-2005). There is a chance he could be an option for NSA and MFA positions, being an ambassador in Riyadh is a great experience that credits him for these higher positions. But today I see Hamdan bin Mohamed (son) and Mohamed bin Hamad (favorite son-in-law) more likely.

Mohamed bin Zayed, already in his late 20s and 30s, had already become his father's main adviser in terms of military affairs, he already participated in negotiations involving purchases of war material. I believe this is the path for young Zayed.

My view of KSN is still very hazy, MBZ will have to watch him for a few years before nominating him for a position. Perhaps something related to sports, youth or tourism? Abu Dhabi does not have a strong body in the sports sector, there is only the Sports Council headed by Nahyan bin Zayed

 

[feiraguy]

The President's 17 grandchildren, updated with the arrival of baby Hamdan

All seven of the President's married children now have offspring.
Only the two unmarried (Zayed and Hessa) don't have kids yet

Mohamed bin Khalid bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Shamma bint Khalid bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Salama bint Khalid bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Zayed bin Dhiyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Fatima bint Dhiyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Salama bint Dhiyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Mohamed bin Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed
Tahnoun bin Mohamed bin Tahnoun bin Mohamed
Zayed bin Mohamed bin Tahnoun bin Mohamed
Zayed bin Mohamed bin Hamad bin Tahnoun
Hessa bint Mohamed bin Hamad bin Tahnoun
Salama bint Mohamed bin Hamad bin Tahnoun
Fatima bint Mohamed bin Hamad bin Tahnoun
Mohamed bin Nahyan bin Saif bin Mohamed
Saif bin Nahyan bin Saif bin Mohamed
Zayed bin Nahyan bin Saif bin Mohamed
Hamdan bin Zayed bin Hamdan bin Zayed

 

[whitepaper]

Feiraguy - what do you think ? Will MBZ attend Arab league Summit tomorrow ? I don't think he will, let's see.

There's so much emphasis on Syria's inclusion than on Sudan crisis. What do you think ? How will Syria's inclusion change Middle East politics ? Russia is happy, China is happy and US isn't about this.

There's never a dull moment in geopolitics.

 

[feiraguy]

I read the article you referred me to yesterday; the UAE is experiencing a moment similar to that of my country, there is a search for an independent geopolitics, balancing on four different poles (USA, European Union, Russia and China)

I do not believe that this rapprochement between UAE/China and UAE/Russia is due to errors in the conduct of the relationship between UAE and USA, these only accelerated the process, it is a natural movement (and without return) of a geopolitics based on a multilateral world, and not based on the wishes of a global superpower (as it used to be with the US)

I am looking closely at this rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, tension between the countries could serve as a stage for global powers to prevail their interests
(example: US supporting one "side" and consequently the other side looking for support from China, or vice versa)... we'll see

 

[feiraguy]

Assad's reintegration is inevitable, the West and the Arabs realized that it is not possible to win that war, the solution will be through diplomacy.

The difference between the West and the Arabs is that in the West there will be some embarrassment and pressure from the press, the people and the opposition if the leaders decide to reinstate a "War Criminal", in the Gulf this is not a concern.

I am also surprised at how the Sudan issue is being overshadowed by the Syria issue. Perhaps it is in the UAE's interest that Sudan be overshadowed so that things are resolved in the backstage? The UAE has been a sponsor of the warlord Khalifa Haftar in the Libyan War for many, many years, and this is poorly reported in the global media, perhaps that is the intention with regard to Hemedti

I'm not sure about MBZ's participation, let's look forward to the announcement