Monarchies & Republics: Future and Benefits

[Friedrich Karl II]

Future monarchs of Europe.
I decided to make here a post about the younger generations of future monarchs of Europe.
Who are the ones who have the greatest chance of becoming monarchs in the future? What's your opinion?

1. Prince Christian of Denmark
2. Prince George of Cambridge
3. Prince Charles of Luxembourg
4. Prince Jacques of Mónaco
5. Prince Joseph Wenzel of Liechtenstein

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uZ_7M3-n...f43f626ae5c08906669b5dfd3ca_a9415878_1280.jpg

1. Princess Elisabeth, Duchess of Brabant
2. Princess Ingrid-Alexandra of Norway
3. Leonor, Princess of Asturias
4. Princess Estelle of Sweden, Duchess of Östergötland
5. Catharina-Amalia, Princess of Orange

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iiuu1gc1...a1541c589e2f4e176d60c253602_86ab5bb7_1280.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sKnvO4cR...474_671577930294953_3034731799341623624_n.jpg

Assuming that they all outlive their predecessors nor removed from line of succession on some reason almost all have good chances get their thrones. Only Leonor and Elisabeth have smaller chances. Spain might become republic and Belgium might be dissolved altough both seems being bit unlikely. But other European monarchies pretty surely survive to next century.

 

[Blog Real]

I still want to see Leonor as Queen of Spain.
Yes I also agree that others have great chances of winning a throne.

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

When only one monarchy falls because of a referendum, others will follow soon. It is hard to defend that in for an example Sweden a referendum is held and that then the Netherlands categorically refuses to hold a similar one, with enough petitioners (in the NL a referendum is not possible about, guess three times... the monarchy).

For my own country I am not that optimistic. Forget personal popularity, which is wrongly confused with support for the principle that in a democratic society people have no any choice in their head of state.

Yes, Máxima is veeeeeeery popular. But so is Max Verstappen (a race coureur) or someone else. They will never be on the referendum paper. Year after year the trend for the idea of a monarchy is downward, while the individual popularity of members of the royal family remains.

As Spain and Belgium will be the very last to hold a referendum, their thrones are actually the most secure. It are the monarchies in countries like Sweden and the Netherlands, when a progressive wind gets it under the wings again, which are actually in the danger zone.

No need for guillotines. We are talking about decent and developed countries. For sure prudent arrangements will be made so that the Westlings and Von Amsbergs will live in great conditions in the Republic of the Netherlands or the Swedish Republic.

I am not talking about this year. I am talking about the longer term. And most likely the royal families themselves will know it as well. No illusions but reality. The support for the monarchy under the 40 yeaes old is just 55 %. Not that they dislike Willem-Alexander. Oh no, on the contrary. But simply because they disagree with the idea that someone is automatically born into a public function of state.

 

[Marengo]

Weren't referendums abolished in the Netherlands in 2018?

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

Weren't referendums abolished in the Netherlands in 2018?

The advisory referendum yes. ("We ask you something and them we wipe our derrière with it"). But many parties want a definitive referendum as it is not sustainable to keep people out of the democratic process except once in four years.

 

[Blog Real]

The concept of monarchy is much broader than just a person who is called to be head of state by birth. It is the symbol and tradition of a country.
With globalization and the breaking of traditions around the world, the various countries that are still monarchies can cling to their monarchies to maintain traditions and differentiate their countries.
We must not forget that in some republics there are also no elections to choose the head of state.

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

The concept of monarchy is much broader than just a person who is called to be head of state by birth. It is the symbol and tradition of a country.
With globalization and the breaking of traditions around the world, the various countries that are still monarchies can cling to their monarchies to maintain traditions and differentiate their countries.

That is an opinion. The statistics show another reality.

In general 68% support, under the younger generation 55% support, close to the point-of-no-return.
This trend is going on for 50 years. No surprises. It is a very slow but steady erosion. From 90% to 80% to 70% to 60% etc.

Once that 55% is under 50%, it gets a completely new dynamic. All media will jump on it. Political parties see this too and will jump on the bandwagon. Make no any illusion.

 

[Blog Real]

I understand what you're saying, but we don't know what the future's going to be like.
These are polls, which indicate what a sample of the population thinks.
Polls aren't always reliable, but that's another matter...
In this poll that showed me the monarchy is still popular in all age groups and that's good.
The popularity of the monarchy also increased at the time of king Willem-Alexander's proclamation and a few years later.
In the long run, obviously, we don't know what it's going to be like.

 

[victor1319]

In this poll that showed me the monarchy is still popular in all age groups and that's good.
The popularity of the monarchy also increased at the time of king Willem-Alexander's proclamation and a few years later.
In the long run, obviously, we don't know what it's going to be like.

In Germany we have a saying: Who is not a Leftist at age 18 - has no heart. And who is not a conservative by age 40 - has no brain...

The youth in the poll of Duc et Pair, they will get older...

 

[Curryong]

I agree that most of these heirs look likely to succeed at the moment, except maybe for the thrones of Spain, Sweden and perhaps Belgium.

Ref the present polling- younger generations are coming up right now who share the same opinions as those in their thirties who don't care about monarchies. And some older people do not change their opinion on having a republic. The tide of history rarely changes, and I say that as a monarchist who was born in Britain and has noticed apathy rising regarding the BRF in the last twenty years.

Several of the Royal children featured are not likely to reach the throne for another forty years or so, especially George who will have to wait through his grandfather and then his father's reigns, perhaps fifty years. We have no idea what societies in these countries will be like in that time.

 

[Mirabel]

In Germany we have a saying: Who is not a Leftist at age 18 - has no heart. And who is not a conservative by age 40 - has no brain...

The youth in the poll of Duc et Pair, they will get older...

I agree.
I think, as people age, they tend to place more value on stability and tradition.

 

[Blog Real]

I agree.
I think, as people age, they tend to place more value on stability and tradition.

I agree, too.
At the age of 20 we want to change the world and we think anything is possible.
At 30 and 40 we lose the igenuity and accept things as they are.
As we age we prefer stability than large change

 

[Andy T]

I think there is a greater chance of an evolution towards a purely ceremonial monarchy alongside an elected presidency in some monarchies. There's no earthly reason why there can't be an elected president and a royal family in the same state. it doesn't have to be binary.

Thankfully, the days of violent upheavals and revolutions in Europe are increasingly distant, so unless there is an earth-shaking scandal, it would seem more likely for the shift to an elected head of state being 'softer', and the establishment of a system in which the royal families would be removed from the pinnacle of the state but still recognised for their cultural, symbolic and ceremonial roles. Ironically, this may open the door for a restoration of other royal families (Romania? Albania? Serbia?) to a similar role.

 

[Denville]

I think there is a greater chance of an evolution towards a purely ceremonial monarchy alongside an elected presidency in some monarchies. There's no earthly reason why there can't be an elected president and a royal family in the same state. it doesn't have to be binary.

Thankfully, the days of violent upheavals and revolutions in Europe are increasingly distant, so unless there is an earth-shaking scandal, it would seem more likely for the shift to an elected head of state being 'softer', and the establishment of a system in which the royal families would be removed from the pinnacle of the state but still recognised for their cultural, symbolic and ceremonial roles. Ironically, this may open the door for a restoration of other royal families (Romania? Albania? Serbia?) to a similar role.

there would be complaints abuot the cost. If Monarchies cost a lot and are inegalitiarian are the public going to pay for a royal family AND a elected President?

 

[Friedrich Karl II]

I think there is a greater chance of an evolution towards a purely ceremonial monarchy alongside an elected presidency in some monarchies. There's no earthly reason why there can't be an elected president and a royal family in the same state. it doesn't have to be binary.

Thankfully, the days of violent upheavals and revolutions in Europe are increasingly distant, so unless there is an earth-shaking scandal, it would seem more likely for the shift to an elected head of state being 'softer', and the establishment of a system in which the royal families would be removed from the pinnacle of the state but still recognised for their cultural, symbolic and ceremonial roles. Ironically, this may open the door for a restoration of other royal families (Romania? Albania? Serbia?) to a similar role.

I don't see on such system being much of idea. It would be really expensive. If monarchy is expensive can you imaginate how much more expensive it will be if there is monarch and elected president. Elections and sustaining president's apartment and his workers is not cheap. And presidents too have pretty high wage. And there would be too question about what are duties of president and what are duties of monarch. Who would host state visitors? Who would open olympics? Who would give New Year speech etc? And in many European countries presidents are becoming more and more ceremonial heads. I think that president-monarch-prime minister triple system just would make administration too messy and confusing.

 

[Durham]

It's an intriguing idea. Not sure how it would work though.

Andorra has two heads of state doesn't it?

 

[Somebody]

I don't see the benefit either. Why would the people that currently have a monarch and a prime minister prefer an 'executive president'; it seems there are more checks and balances in systems with a prime minister and ceremonial head of state (whether a monarch or a president) than in those with an executive president.

 

[Andy T]

It's not a proposal or a suggestion, folks, and I'm not arguing that it's a good thing. I just think that rather than via overnight abolitions, it's more likely that many of the remaining monarchies will get gradually and gently nudged further and further out of the political/state arena, ever more slimmed down and sidelined.

 

[Somebody]

It's not a proposal or a suggestion, folks, and I'm not arguing that it's a good thing. I just think that rather than via overnight abolitions, it's more likely that many of the remaining monarchies will get gradually and gently nudged further and further out of the political/state arena, ever more slimmed down and sidelined.

But why an elected president next to a royal family if the indirectly appointed prime-minister works perfectly fine?! Because imho that would be going back to a monarch-type presidency where too much power is in the hand of one person - even though that person was elected based on popular opinion instead of prepared for that responsibility all his life (which in both cases can go horribly wrong).

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

It's not a proposal or a suggestion, folks, and I'm not arguing that it's a good thing. I just think that rather than via overnight abolitions, it's more likely that many of the remaining monarchies will get gradually and gently nudged further and further out of the political/state arena, ever more slimmed down and sidelined.

Oh, all of them are practically ceremonial. The real power lies with the Government, supported by an electoral mandate in Parliament. Queen Elizabeth has zero power, as we have seen with that promulgation of Parliament, which was ruled as an abuse of the royal prerogative by the Supreme Court. In the Privy Council, the Queen could do nothing else than to nod her head and say "approved" (to promulgate Parliament).

In Luxembourg the Grand-Duke lost his legislative role. His only prerogative is to promulgate laws for publication in the State Gazette. He no longer has to give a grand-ducal assent.

In Belgium the ongoing erosion of the federal state in a continuous transfer of responsibilities to the regions means that the King more and more is sidelined, as the federal government has no say in a lots of areas, which are now under jurisdiction of the regions.

In the Netherlands in theory all royal prerogatives from 1848 are intact: the King is an integral member of Government, the King is President of the Council of State (the Supreme Court of Administration as well the legislative Council to the Government), the King assents all Decrees, Acts and Treaties, invests and dismisses authorities, ambassadors, etc. But he himself has no any desire to play an active political role. As King Willem-Alexander himself said: the role of a monarchy in our time is to be instrumental for the cohesion of society. He makes no any other illusion than that. So, like in the UK, lots of formal powers, but in practice totally limited by the ministerial responsibility.

In Sweden lots of these formal powers are gone, the role is truly ceremonial. In fact all other monarchies do the same. Prince Albert of Monaco has maybe a bit more formal powers but also he is pretty a-political and leaves it to well paid, well experienced (French) politicians he entrusts with the daily affairs.

 

[Blog Real]

An image with the various monarchies of Europe (extinct and present).
https://c7.quickcachr.fotos.sapo.pt/i/Gef178d64/21907313_kdhYj.jpeg

 

[Somebody]

An image with the various monarchies of Europe (extinct and present).
https://c7.quickcachr.fotos.sapo.pt/i/Gef178d64/21907313_kdhYj.jpeg

I guess Belgium and Norway would disagree... They surely think they are monarchs too...

 

[Blog Real]

I guess Belgium and Norway would disagree... They surely think they are monarchs too...

Yes, they are only in the legend but are not featured on the map.
Luxembourg, Monaco and Liechtenstein are also not highlighted.

 

[Mbruno]

I guess Belgium and Norway would disagree... They surely think they are monarchs too...

It also looks like Spain has gone back to the 17th century and is ruled by King Felipe IV.

 

[SakuraBlues]

Royal Prediction

Hello everyone! I am a newbie here and would like to start my contribution with somewhat an unusual post. It’s actually a forecast for the British Monarchy, and maybe not only British, who knows?

A bit of a background. I’ve been following a certain forecaster – an amasing AI-system - for decades. The system in question mainly forecasts economic, political, financial, societal, cultural etc development of the world. It does connect the dots of all there is around us, though, and so far it has not been wrong once.

That said, I’m not trying to persuade anyone, so don’t get me wrong, please. You don’t have to believe in what I’m going to tell you, either. I’m just sharing with you some relevant IMO royal info, which you might be interesting in. In general, people are curious about predictions, even if being at the same time sceptical or dismissive. That’s just human nature, I presume.

Now, the forecast. According to it, the British Monarchy will most likely find itself on a crossroad in 2021. I’ve no idea what that means, so your guess is as good as mine. Moreover, the British Monarchy will most likely cease to exist in 2032. That won’t come out of nowhere, of course. The Great Britain as we know it will come to its end in 2032 as well. All of these will be a result of a multi-levelled crisis of unprecedented proportions.

And now, my personal opinion. I think the monarchies in Sweden, Belgium, Spain and probably in the Netherland will be all gone by 2032, too. For the same socio-political reason, sadly. Denmark and Norway might be the last countries to abolish their monarchies. But I’m sure that sometime around 2040 all the European monarchies will be a matter of more or less a glamourous past… Would appreciate your views on this info, thanks!

 

[Muhler]

Well, it's difficult to make predictions - especially about the future...

I would personally like a few more details and background info on how you reached these conclusions, otherwise it's almost impossible to comment on this in a meaningful manner.

 

[Blog Real]

I can't predict the future. But I hope that monarchies will last for many decades.

 

[Hendrik-Jan77]

Hello everyone! I am a newbie here and would like to start my contribution with somewhat an unusual post. It’s actually a forecast for the British Monarchy, and maybe not only British, who knows?



A bit of a background. I’ve been following a certain forecaster – an amasing AI-system - for decades. The system in question mainly forecasts economic, political, financial, societal, cultural etc development of the world. It does connect the dots of all there is around us, though, and so far it has not been wrong once.



That said, I’m not trying to persuade anyone, so don’t get me wrong, please. You don’t have to believe in what I’m going to tell you, either. I’m just sharing with you some relevant IMO royal info, which you might be interesting in. In general, people are curious about predictions, even if being at the same time sceptical or dismissive. That’s just human nature, I presume.



Now, the forecast. According to it, the British Monarchy will most likely find itself on a crossroad in 2021. I’ve no idea what that means, so your guess is as good as mine. Moreover, the British Monarchy will most likely cease to exist in 2032. That won’t come out of nowhere, of course. The Great Britain as we know it will come to its end in 2032 as well. All of these will be a result of a multi-levelled crisis of unprecedented proportions.



And now, my personal opinion. I think the monarchies in Sweden, Belgium, Spain and probably in the Netherland will be all gone by 2032, too. For the same socio-political reason, sadly. Denmark and Norway might be the last countries to abolish their monarchies. But I’m sure that sometime around 2040 all the European monarchies will be a matter of more or less a glamourous past… Would appreciate your views on this info, thanks!

Totally unfounded predictions based on nothing. You have to base your assumptions on actual facts.

 

[SakuraBlues]

All right then. I don't like unwarranted aggressiveness in any way, shape or form. It was indeed a mistake to post what I did. So, have a good day everyone and enjoy your self-righteousness to the fullest.

 

[Denville]

All right then. I don't like unwarranted aggressiveness in any way, shape or form. It was indeed a mistake to post what I did. So, have a good day everyone and enjoy your self-righteousness to the fullest.

but you haven't explained why you think various monarchies will come to an end..