Which Country Could Next Abolish Their Monarchy?

[padams2359]

I think Spain came very close. Juan Carlos came to his senses and abdicated. Spain has gone pleasantly quiet.

[eya]

Originally Posted by padams2359

I think Spain came very close. Juan Carlos came to his senses and abdicated. Spain has gone pleasantly quiet.

I agree about Spain. But someone saying about Sweden . I read somewhere how after Victoria maybe there is not throne anymore for Estell. Why saying that i have not idea.

[Winnie]

Personally I don't believe any of the above mentioned. But, many friends strongly believe Norway. As I don't live or follow that country's citizens, I don't understand their opinion, but they seem quite certain and happy with that fact. They feel Norway's CP and his wife pathetic. I think they look rather sweet.

[ROYAL NORWAY]

Originally Posted by Winnie

But, many friends strongly believe Norway. As I don't live or follow that country's citizens, I don't understand their opinion, but they seem quite certain and happy with that fact. They feel Norway's CP and his wife pathetic. I think they look rather sweet.

My father is Norwegian and I have grown up in Norway. I and most people I know in Norway does not agree with what your friends says. It is true that there has been some controversy surrounding Haakon and Mette-Marit, but they and the monarchy is very popular both in the media and the people. I'm pretty sure that Norway is not going to become a republic in my lifetime, and I'm 27.

[Duc_et_Pair]

Interesting to see that according this poll the two monarchies with the House of Nassau (the Netherlands and Luxembourg) are the least likely to become republics. There is a republican sentiment in the Netherlands with some hiccups now and then but I agree that -for the moment- it is unlikely that these countries will topple their King resp. Grand-Duke.

[Mbruno]

Several Commonwealth realms are likely to become republics in the next 50 years or so, e.g Australia. Barbados, Jamaica and New Zealand. I find it very unlikely though that any of the current European monarchies will be abolished before the end of the 21st century.

[ROYAL NORWAY]

The monarchies in the UK, Netherlands, Denmark and Norway remains popular, and some polls have shown record high support the last four years. This is not going to change unless we get some very very major scandals, which is unlikely.

I don't think we will see a republic in Sweden or Belgium either, and I hope that the Spanish monarchy will survive.

As far as UK is concerned, I actually think it is the safest Monarchy in the world, along with the Japanese.

Republicanism in the UK remains among the lowest in the world, with figures rarely exceeding 20% in support of a British republic, some polls have it as low 13%, and consistent ~70% support for the continuation of the Monarchy. And Some polls have the support for the monarchy as high as 82%, others at around 70 to 76%, another poll has the support for the monarchy from 66 to 70%.

To abolish the British monarchy will be very difficult.
1: Most polls must show a majority for a republic.
2: Majority in the house of commons for a referendum, this is not going to happen.
3: Majority in the referendum for a republic, this is not going to happen.
4: Changing the country's name, changing the pound, remove the royal name from all state institutions. These are just some of the things that must be changed.
5: All of this is going to cost so much money that even many Republicans will start doubting it.

[Furienna]

I have a hard time seeing how any of the current monarchies will be abolished. They have stuck through all the changes in society of the 20th century, so I have to to say that they all look safe enough. And for us in Sweden, Victoria seems to be popular enough to keep it going at least through her lifetime.

I agree with Mbruno though that some of the commonwealth countries just might want to become republics in the future. But in the UK itself, the monarchy will most likely stay.

[carlota]

i thought some of you would enjoy reading this article:

https://qz.com/1281030/royal-familie...-the-monarchy/

[Biri]

Why non-European monarchies are not included in the poll?
The lost monarchy which fell was a non-European one (Nepalese).

[Marengo]

The poll started in 2006 by a former moderator.
As said in the opening post: it was based on a question about European monarchies by a member.
We can not add more options once the poll is active.

[Mbruno]

According to an IPSOS poll posted recently in another forum, 37 % in Spain believe the country would be better off as republic. By comparison, that number was 23 % in Sweden and only 17 % in Belgium.

If I recall it correctly, Spain was the only country where the percentage of “don’t know/ not sure” plus “a republic would be better for the country” was above 5O %. In most countries, however, a plurality ( around 40%) said that a republic “would make no difference” in making the country either better or worse. It is also interesting that, in Belgium specifically, 26 % said it would make the country worse, which was actually one of the highest percentages in that category among all polled countries.

It looks to me from that poll alone that Spain is the only European country where there is really a strong republican sentiment.

[PleasantPastures]

Originally Posted by carlota

i thought some of you would enjoy reading this article:

https://qz.com/1281030/royal-familie...-the-monarchy/

Looks like the UK is pretty safe then, thank heavens!

[Mbruno]

Originally Posted by PleasantPastures

Looks like the UK is pretty safe then, thank heavens!

That is exactly the same poll I was mentioning above. Bad news for the Spanish royal family. All others look reasonably safe, even in Belgium and Sweden.

[QUEENECE29]

Spain
Belgium
Norway

[FashionMaven]

I hope it's Spain. As soon as possible.

[Mbruno]

Originally Posted by FashionMaven

I hope it's Spain. As soon as possible.

Unlikely because, as we discussed in another forum, the Spanish constitution makes it very hard to abolish the monarchy.



In order to abolish the monarchy under the present constitution:

1. Two-thirds of the members of each of the two houses of parliament would have to first agree in principle to a constitutional amendment introducing a republican form of government. The two houses would then be automatically dissolved and a general election would be called.
2. Following the election, the renewed houses would have to deliberate on the matter again and two-thirds of the members of both houses would have to approve now the actual (detailed)text of the constitutional amendment.
3. Finally, after the amendment is passed by the aforementioned qualified majorities, it would have to be ratified by the voters in a national popular referendum.

Right now, my impression is that there isn't a national popular majority for the republic (although popular support for the republic may be as high as 40-45 %). More significantly, however, definitely there isn't a two-third majority in parliament to initiate a republican amendment as, out of the four major national partisan groups, only Unidos/Podemos is likely to support it.



Among the Socialist Party's parliamentary caucus (PSOE), there are many republican MPs and senators, including the current prime minister, Pedro Sanchéz, who admited publicly to being a republican. However, the party's current position, to quote Sanchéz himself, is to support the continuation of Felipe VI's constitutional monarchy (rather than "the monarchy" in general and in abstract) as a compromise solution between the republicans and the monarchists within the party. The right-wing and centrist parties on the other hand, namely PP and Ciudadanos, are monarchist parties as far as I understand it and, together, they are likely to account for at least 40 % of the parliamentary seats (or probably even more than that), which would be already enough to block any republican amendment.

[Lee-Z]

Originally Posted by FashionMaven

I hope it's Spain. As soon as possible.

Out of interest: why do you hope that?