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  #41  
Old 10-12-2021, 08:23 PM
Gentry
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Friedrich Karl II View Post
Without WW1:

- Russian monarchy was going to collapse, not same way as in ours world but it would be ended probably in ten years. Nicholas II was just too stubborn and reactionary and there was already huge problems which just waited to be solved with way or another.


- Austria-Hungary might survive but it would need much of reforms.


- Ottoman Empire might survive but it not be sure. There too was tons of problems.


- German monarchy is going to survive and probably develope as British style monarchy.


Without WW2 but WW1 still happens:

- Italian monarchy probably would survive. It almost did that even during WW2 and was abolished on referendum only with small margin.


- It is questionable can Yugoslavia even survive. Serbian monarchy might do that but I bit doubt that Yugoslavia would do that when it was such mutlinational nation. Much too depends what its neighbors are going to do. If treaties after WW1 are similar than in ours world, Italy would be still mad about betrayal on treaties and Hungary wants take back regions which it lost on extremely humiliatin Treaty of Trianon.


- Bulgarian and Romanian monarchies would survive easily without WW2 when Soviets not occupy the countries.


- Hungary was actually monarchy without king between world wars so we can include that too. If Horthy manage keep power until his death he might decide appoint Otto von Habsburg as his successor. But that is not so sure.
What about with World War I, with World War II, but without the 1940 Fall of France? Would anything have been different in comparison to a with World War I but without World War II scenario?
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  #42  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:55 AM
CyrilVladisla's Avatar
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I wonder if the two countries of Austria and Hungary would have separated from one monarch. Austria would still have had its Emperor. However, would an Archduke of Austria have become the sovereign of Hungary?
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  #43  
Old 10-13-2021, 03:52 PM
Gentry
 
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Originally Posted by CyrilVladisla View Post
I wonder if the two countries of Austria and Hungary would have separated from one monarch. Austria would still have had its Emperor. However, would an Archduke of Austria have become the sovereign of Hungary?
Depends on what the Hungarian nobility would have wanted and also on what the other European Powers' thoughts on this would have been. Because Germany, for instance, might decide to support the Hapsburgs' claim (or at least, *some* Hapsburg's claim) to the Hungarian throne while, say, Russia might theoretically support a different claimant--perhaps one of their own Romanov Grand Dukes, even!
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  #44  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:14 PM
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Hungary was technically still a kingdom until after the Second World War, and the Habsburgs were more popular there than in Austria. It was probably more likely that Hungary would have kept the monarchy than that Austria would, even though that seems odd because we tend to think of the Habsburgs as being Austrian.
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  #45  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:21 PM
Gentry
 
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Originally Posted by Alison H View Post
Hungary was technically still a kingdom until after the Second World War, and the Habsburgs were more popular there than in Austria. It was probably more likely that Hungary would have kept the monarchy than that Austria would, even though that seems odd because we tend to think of the Habsburgs as being Austrian.
Without the 1940 Fall of France (or without the outbreak of World War II in general) and the subsequent Sovietization and Communization of Hungary (which would have been avoided in this scenario), it's entirely possible that Miklos Horthy could make Otto von Hapsburg his designated successor after his death, but only if the Anglo-French and the Little Entente will both actually approve of such a move on Horthy's part. If they won't, then it very likely won't happen.

Interestingly enough, there was no huge movement to restore the Hungarian monarchy after 1989, but then again, almost half a century had already passed since 1946 by that point in time.
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  #46  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:27 PM
Gentry
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meraude View Post
I doubt the Russian monarchy would have survived very long, the WW I was not in it self the reason for the fall of the Romanovs. There was too much internal unrest in the country and a weak monarch unable to or unwilling to make a change towards democracy.
If both France and Russia would have been republics, then this would have made the Franco-Russian alliance of an exclusively republican character. It would have then been put in contrast against the monarchical Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Italy, and perhaps even Britain if Britain would have eventually left the Franco-Russian orbit due to fear of Russia's growing power and instead moved into the German orbit. I wonder if the Franco-Russians could have gotten a lot of sympathy from the US in such a scenario due to their shared mutual republican character.
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  #47  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by fearghas View Post
I suspect that in Germany, the idea f equal marriage would have and gemale succession brought in. This would have prevented the extinctions of Mecklenburg Scjwerin say. And the Emporer of Germany would not be Georg Friedrich but his uncle. Friedrich.
*Female succession (not gemale succession; corrected typo)

Anyway, agreed with your analysis here. But of course there's also the butterfly effect to consider. For instance, Prince Wilhelm of Prussia might have actually had a son in this scenario--and perhaps even a different wife, to boot:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince...6%E2%80%931940)
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  #48  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Claire View Post
This is actually rather difficult to do as so mush could have turned on some many things.
1. it is unlikely the Saxa-coberg- Gotha's would have changed their name - but then again they might have faced an a communist revolution later. It must be remembered that WW1 and WW2 halted communism. Also WW1 and WW2 both cemented the monarchy in the UK at least, as a shared rally point of nationalism.
2. We might still have a monarchy in Germany and several other countries. However it is more then likely that we would have had localized if not ethic conflicts that kicked them out. So we might have several small German states and princes. It must be remembered that royals families have bound ethic groups together in unlikely friendships. This about Belgium and Spain. No wars - might have resulted in the families unable to bind those regions together.
3. It is very likely that the royals would have continued to marry into each other and we might have been something like a Scandinavian country emerge and not the 5 that exist today.
4. Another thing about WW1 especially is that it destroyed the structured class system that existed in Europe - titles nobles were essentially knocked off their pedestals. So if communism hadn't engulfed the whole of Europe and possible the world - we would still have a rigid class system.
Women would have remained in the home - so universal suffrage and there would only be men in work force and Empire would remain. As many of the countries only broke off the various empires due to their weakened state after the wars and surges of independence
Mind you that you are only saying no wars - not no raise of Fascism. Fascism might have engulfed Europe and if Germany was anything to go on - the royals would have joined up.
However my guess is most if not all the royal families would have been executed or gone into exile with the spread of communism into the Europe.
The trend towards women's suffrage already began before WWI. WWI simply significantly accelerated it. I suspect that *Communist* revolutions in Europe without the World Wars would have been VERY unlikely, though more moderate socialist revolutions or at least socialist cultural and political transformations would have been very possible. Socialism was strong in places such as pre-WWI Germany and France, after all.
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  #49  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
No WWI might have meant that Lenin would have remained in Switzerland, politically impotent. Or just as importantly: Have arrived too late.

It was very much the deprivations of WWI that led to the (relatively limited) rise of the communists. The communists/bolsheviks were extremists who didn't have that wide a political public appeal and without the suffering of the war a more moderate (Social-Democrat) government might have cemented their power and reduced the power of the Tzar - something that at the time had a wide public appeal.
A democratic Russia sure would have had its fair share of challenges, but still...
Agreed with all of your analysis here.

Quote:
Not to mention the Baltic mercenaries who got close to blocking the Communist coup.
Can you please elaborate on this part?

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Originally Posted by Frozen Royalist View Post
Oooooohhhhhhh I love alternate-history :)

Let me see...if WWI and WWII didn't happen.

Honestly, I'd say that Austria-Hungary would've balkanized even if Archduke Franz Ferdinand's United States of Greater Austria plan was implemented mainly because of so many languages and a few religious differences within the Danube Realm. I think the Habsburg monarchy would've remained in German Austria and/or Hungary so we would've seen an Archduchy of Austria, Imperial State of Austria, or the Kingdom of Hungary but whether the Habsburgs would still be the royal family to this day because of those circumstances, I can't say for certain.
Would the identity of the Hapsburg ruling over German Austria be the same or different? As in, would it be the same person or would it be different members of the Hapsburg royal family?

Quote:
I think the Ottoman Empire would've balkanized too because of the exact same problems that Austria-Hungary was facing and we still probably would've seen the Republic of Turkey in my opinion.
Though Turkey's territorial fate is likely to be worse in this scenario. It's likely to lose Constantinople, eastern Anatolia, possibly Turkish Kurdistan and Hatay, et cetera.

Quote:
I think the German monarchy easily could've survived if WWI never happened, as long as it modernized and kept up with the times.
Agreed.

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As long as the 1914 act was honored, I think Irish Independence could've been avoided.
Weren't the Irish Protestants severely unhappy with that act, though?

Quote:
I think the Russian Empire would've balkanized too considering how backward, diverse, and despotic the regime was in that nation. I honestly think that Tsarist Russia was a ticking time bomb by 1914.
To be replaced by a Russian Republic? And what about places such as Ukraine, the Baltics, the Caucasus, and Central Asia? What kinds of governments would they have had?

Quote:
I think a royal Yugoslavia might've had a chance had surviving if a proper conclusive Yugoslav identity was established and all of the ethnic and religious groups were respected.
A proper conclusive Yugoslav identity through widespread secularization?

Quote:
Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania's monarchies could've easily survived without both World Wars.
Makes sense. Anyway, does Romania still get Transylvania, Bukovina, Bessarabia, and the eastern Banat in this scenario?

Quote:
I think Otto von Habsburg could have been asked to take the Hungarian throne overtime or maybe a new Hungarian royal dynasty might have been established. Heck, I think a royal restoration could've happened if the 1956 revolution was successful and Prince Otto pressed for a restoration afterward.
Not sure about in 1956, but otherwise, Yes, completely agreed.

Quote:
Japan's imperial family would probably be a lot more revered assuming if WWII never happened. I think Japan probably could've held onto Taiwan, Southern Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, and Micronesia without issue but Korea is a whole different matter. I suppose a Korean monarchy restoration is possible in the events of independence and depending on the circumstances and the timing of said independence.
Isn't the Japanese imperial family still very revered even right now, though?

Otherwise, Yes, completely agreed.

Quote:
There is no way that an independent Manchuria/Manchukuo, let alone as a monarchy under a restored Qing Dynasty, could've survived easily because of Manchu nationalism being so artificial and the old Qing monarchy being unpopular unless Emperor Puyi really tried and succeeded at being one heck of a statesman and the Japanese actually letting him do what he needed to do in this situation.
Agreed.

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Considering that Mongolia was between Russia and China, Mongolia as a monarchy could only survive if Mongolian independence is fully respected, which isn't too likely in my opinion.
Though Mongolia can be outright annexed by Russia, no?

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An independent Lao and Vietnamese monarchy could still be around and probably be like Cambodia and Thailand depending on how independence happened and how complacent the local monarchies were with the Third French Republic.
Makes sense.

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The Italian monarchy would probably still be around assuming if the kings were competent and popular.
Makes sense.

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Spain, this depends on what happens between the wars, and assuming if Franco still came to power, the monarchy might now be restored.
Makes sense.

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-Frozen Royalist
Off-topic, but do you think that there was any chance of a French monarchical restoration in the event of a French defeat in World War I?
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  #50  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yukari View Post
I doubt it.
For one, invading China was already on the plan since before Edo period, even the idea was already there since Heian even when it's still Ming with Korea as stepping stone. World War or not, Sino-Japanese War would happen. After China, expanding to other areas in Asia would be very likely since you know, the Emperor was God and Japan was the centre of the world (prolong isolation is not good for their mentality). And by mid 19th century, China was an important market for UK, French, US, and Russia. So "conflict" with those "barbarian" would also happen sooner or later (kind of "revenge" of 1858 Treaties). Basically war is inevitable for Japan.

Furthermore, the self-sacrifice for Japanese was on different level compare to westerner. They would (read: must) give everything for the Emperor. Everything! During WWII, the ordinary Japanese in Japan suffered as bad as people they're invaded in other Asia countries. Now, British had George V visiting the troops or Princess Mary's hospital work. Meanwhile, even though every morning Japan's troops had to "salute" to the direction of Kyoto every morning, the Emperor would never visit them as a gesture of support nor any Princess would leave the palace giving comfort to peasant. Not going to happen, no way.

In any way, Japan would also lose this war. The only difference maybe the atomic bombs, so the war possibly would last longer. For ordinary Japanese, it might be something like sengoku jidai all over again, maybe worse. In that case, it would only bring more resentment towards the imperial family, particularly the emperor.
Do you think that Japan could have ever fought a war with Spain over the Philippines in the absence of the Spanish-American War?
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  #51  
Old 10-13-2021, 04:46 PM
Gentry
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
There is a segment that hasn't been mentioned so far: The royal families of the colonies and protectorates.
Malaya.
Jordan.
Morocco.
Persia. (Strictly speaking independent, but considering how the Soviets brushed everything aside, Persia would hardly have been able to maintain independence in the face of an invasion and might conceivable become a contested area between Britain and Russia.)
Iraq.
Egypt.
Afghanistan.
And last but by no means least Ethiopia. Would a non-fascist Italy have tried again?
I actually wonder if an alternate World War I could have eventually broken out over Persia in a scenario where World War I would not have broken out in 1914--especially if the 1907 Anglo-Russian Convention would not have been renewed in 1915 and in response Britain would have gradually drifted into the Germano-Austro-Hungaro-Ottoman orbit.
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  #52  
Old 10-13-2021, 06:07 PM
Serene Highness
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist View Post

Interestingly enough, there was no huge movement to restore the Hungarian monarchy after 1989, but then again, almost half a century had already passed since 1946 by that point in time.
I don't remember it even being mentioned, although there was talk of restoring the monarchies in Romania, Bulgaria and, later on, Serbia. I think too much water had passed under the bridge for any of those things to be likely, though: I know Spain's monarchy was restored after a long gap, but that was a different situation.

I think Tsarist Russia could possibly have survived with someone like Alexander II who was willing to make changes, but not with Nicholas II. And nationalism was on the rise long before the war: it was probably only a matter of time before the Austro-Hungarian Empire fell apart. I think it would have been divided up very differently without the war, though, with more land going to Austria and Hungary and less to Italy, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia ... and Poland and Ukraine, come to that. What a lot of countries were involved!
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  #53  
Old 10-13-2021, 08:46 PM
Gentry
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alison H View Post
I don't remember it even being mentioned, although there was talk of restoring the monarchies in Romania, Bulgaria and, later on, Serbia. I think too much water had passed under the bridge for any of those things to be likely, though: I know Spain's monarchy was restored after a long gap, but that was a different situation.

I think Tsarist Russia could possibly have survived with someone like Alexander II who was willing to make changes, but not with Nicholas II. And nationalism was on the rise long before the war: it was probably only a matter of time before the Austro-Hungarian Empire fell apart. I think it would have been divided up very differently without the war, though, with more land going to Austria and Hungary and less to Italy, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia ... and Poland and Ukraine, come to that. What a lot of countries were involved!
For what it's worth, I don't think that Nicholas II actually governed too differently from Alexander II. After all, in 1905-1906, Nicholas II finally created the figurehead and mostly powerless Duma that his grandfather Alexander II wanted to make right before his assassination in 1881, 25 years earlier. And both got their countries involved in large wars--the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878 for Alexander II and World War I for Nicholas I. But Alexander II might have possibly had a stronger will than his grandson had. As in, being more forceful and whatnot. Nicholas II was too waffling and indecisive, IMHO.
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