What If WWI/WWII Hadn't Happened?

[yukari]

Originally Posted by Frozen Royalist

(...)

Japan's imperial family would probably be a lot more revered assuming if WWII never happened. I think Japan probably could've held onto Taiwan, Southern Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, and Micronesia without issue but Korea is a whole different matter. I suppose a Korean monarchy restoration is possible in the events of independence and depending on the circumstances and the timing of said independence.

There is no way that an independent Manchuria/Manchukuo, let alone as a monarchy under a restored Qing Dynasty, could've survived easily because of Manchu nationalism being so artificial and the old Qing monarchy being unpopular unless Emperor Puyi really tried and succeeded at being one heck of a statesman and the Japanese actually letting him do what he needed to do in this situation.

Considering that Mongolia was between Russia and China, Mongolia as a monarchy could only survive if Mongolian independence is fully respected, which isn't too likely in my opinion.

I doubt it.
For one, invading China was already on the plan since before Edo period, even the idea was already there since Heian even when it's still Ming with Korea as stepping stone. World War or not, Sino-Japanese War would happen. After China, expanding to other areas in Asia would be very likely since you know, the Emperor was God and Japan was the centre of the world (prolong isolation is not good for their mentality). And by mid 19th century, China was an important market for UK, French, US, and Russia. So "conflict" with those "barbarian" would also happen sooner or later (kind of "revenge" of 1858 Treaties). Basically war is inevitable for Japan.

Furthermore, the self-sacrifice for Japanese was on different level compare to westerner. They would (read: must) give everything for the Emperor. Everything! During WWII, the ordinary Japanese in Japan suffered as bad as people they're invaded in other Asia countries. Now, British had George V visiting the troops or Princess Mary's hospital work. Meanwhile, even though every morning Japan's troops had to "salute" to the direction of Kyoto every morning, the Emperor would never visit them as a gesture of support nor any Princess would leave the palace giving comfort to peasant. Not going to happen, no way.

In any way, Japan would also lose this war. The only difference maybe the atomic bombs, so the war possibly would last longer. For ordinary Japanese, it might be something like sengoku jidai all over again, maybe worse. In that case, it would only bring more resentment towards the imperial family, particularly the emperor.

[Durham]

Just in terms of monarchies I think long term trends meant that Russia & Turkey (once the Ottoman Empire went) were likely to become republics.

Both the Ottoman & Austrian Empires were eventually going to be swept away by nationalism. There were already lots of cracks by 1914. I'm not sure what would be the fate of the Hapsburgs. Presumably emperors of a territory similar to modern day Austria. Or possibly Austrians might have wanted to become part of the German Empire?

Ireland might possibly have found peace within the UK with home rule or it might just have been a step towards inevitable independence. There would presumably have been no Easter Rising.

Without Vimy Ridge & Gallipoli what would have happened to national identity in the dominions?

And what about Poland? Carved up by three empires. A great & historic European people without a country of their own. It would surely have gained some sort of freedom in the C20th. After all once the Austrian controlled part became free then there would have been enormous pressure on German & Russian controlled Polish territory.

[CyrilVladisla]

If World War One had not occurred and Hungary had separated from Austria, should a different Habsburg be King of Hungary or a Hungarian nobleman be chosen to be King of Hungary?

[Curryong]

I don’t believe that by 1919 Hungary wanted anything more to do with the Habsburg dynasty. And the country seemed to be perfectly happy as a republic between the wars, though admittedly extremely right-wing.

[Muhler]

There is a segment that hasn't been mentioned so far: The royal families of the colonies and protectorates.
Malaya.
Jordan.
Morocco.
Persia. (Strictly speaking independent, but considering how the Soviets brushed everything aside, Persia would hardly have been able to maintain independence in the face of an invasion and might conceivable become a contested area between Britain and Russia.)
Iraq.
Egypt.
Afghanistan.
And last but by no means least Ethiopia. Would a non-fascist Italy have tried again?

[Alison H]

I think the Ottoman Empire was on the way out by 1914, even if there hadn't been a war, but would Britain and France have got so involved in the Middle East if there hadn't been a war? If not, then it's unlikely that the royal dynasties of Iraq and Jordan would have been established.

[JR76]

Originally Posted by Curryong

I don’t believe that by 1919 Hungary wanted anything more to do with the Habsburg dynasty. And the country seemed to be perfectly happy as a republic between the wars, though admittedly extremely right-wing.

It's hard to say what would have happened but I guess it depended on the way Hungary got its independence. The main reason a Habsburg didn't become king after the war was because of allied pressure and not because the Hungarians didn't want one. The country did officially remain a monarchy until 1946 under the regency of Horthy so it's not unlikely that we'd seen a king ascend the throne like we did in Spain.

Originally Posted by Alison H

I think the Ottoman Empire was on the way out by 1914, even if there hadn't been a war, but would Britain and France have got so involved in the Middle East if there hadn't been a war? If not, then it's unlikely that the royal dynasties of Iraq and Jordan would have been established.

Good point. If France and the UK didn't carve up the Middle East many of today's states in region wouldn't be there. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Israel are all based on decisions made by the colonising countries. A breakup of the Ottoman empire would have lead to much conflict but most likely we'd still have a large Christian population in Anatolia, on the Aegen and Black Sea costs, around and in Istanbul and in Northern Mesopotamia. There would not have been the gigantic population transfer between Greece and Turkey leading to a Muslim Northern Greece and in the absence of the Turco-Greek war no need for Andrew and Alice to flee Greece and with that no years spent in exile for their son Philip who then most likely would never have had the chance to meet a certain Elizabeth.

[Muhler]

Israel, yes.

No WWII, no Holocaust. (Although there would still be discrimination and probably even a pogrom from time to time.)
Millions of Jews still living in Europe, making their mark in so many ways.
No Israel, even if the Ottoman Empire fragmented. It would be "Next year in Jerusalem" every year.

Someone would have taken over in the power vacuum of a fallen Ottoman Empire. Russia is contender number one!
Britain contender number two, to curb Russia.
Germany that already had established connections with the Young Turks prior to WWI might have had a considerable influence in Turkey itself.

No WWI would have meant that the mechanization of Europe, in regards to cars and planes would have been delayed. Perhaps by twenty years?

Would Lindberg have crossed the Atlantic at the time he did, if it had not been for the technological leap during WWI? Or would that have been delayed by a decade or two as well?

What about Japan? One of the reasons why Japan became a militarized society with territorial ambitions (for fear of USA in particular) was that they gained significant territories in the Pacific as a result of being on the winning side during WWI. Would Japan have entered Manchuria? Would Russia? Would there be a Second Russo-Japanese War over Manchuria?
Could the Russian monarchy survive a second defeat if that became the result?
Would China have been carved up by the Western powers, as was already happening with gunboat-policy there?

Interestingly, Tibet would have been left in peace I think. Too remote to make it worth the effort.

Would Latin America have continued to accept the Monroe Doctrine, with the odd Banana Wars? Or would USA have found itself mired down in endless conflicts in Latin America - that was supported by Europe?

[Biri]

Would Poland have regained independence?

[Friedrich Karl II]

Originally Posted by Biri

Would Poland have regained independence?

It would depends what would happen to Russai. But probably independent Poland, either republic or monarchy, would be pretty much under German influence.

[Prinsara]

Originally Posted by Biri

Would Poland have regained independence?

Piłsudski only managed to do it by using WWI to Batman Gambit literally everyone, with the small side effect that he was considered completely untrustworthy afterwards.

Considering he wasn't even a formal soldier, did someone that intelligent and far-seeing have a peacetime version of doing this? Maybe. Probably. But would it have worked...? Who knows?

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by fearghas

I suspect that in Germany, the idea f equal marriage would have and gemale succession brought in. This would have prevented the extinctions of Mecklenburg Scjwerin say. And the Emporer of Germany would not be Georg Friedrich but his uncle. Friedrich.

Yeah, I certainly do think that both non-morganatic marriages and female succession would eventually have to be allowed in a scenario where the German monarchy--or, for that matter, any other Western European monarchy--survives up to the present-day. I suspect that even without the World Wars, egalitarian principles would have still eventually become too entrenched there for the pre-World War I status quo to indefinitely continue.

Former (currently non-existing) monarchies can get away with not changing their succession laws because there's no throne to actually contest at the present time and because they can quite legitimately say that this is a topic that should await a monarchical restoration or something along those lines.

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by Biri

Would Poland have regained independence?

If there's an eventual successful revolution in Russia, then very likely Yes.

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by Friedrich Karl II

It would depends what would happen to Russai. But probably independent Poland, either republic or monarchy, would be pretty much under German influence.

It would help if there would be no Polish Corridor since this would make Germany much less hostile towards Poland and since this would make Poland much more dependent on Germany and German goodwill for sea access.

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by Muhler

Israel, yes.

No WWII, no Holocaust. (Although there would still be discrimination and probably even a pogrom from time to time.)
Millions of Jews still living in Europe, making their mark in so many ways.
No Israel, even if the Ottoman Empire fragmented. It would be "Next year in Jerusalem" every year.

Someone would have taken over in the power vacuum of a fallen Ottoman Empire. Russia is contender number one!
Britain contender number two, to curb Russia.
Germany that already had established connections with the Young Turks prior to WWI might have had a considerable influence in Turkey itself.

No WWI would have meant that the mechanization of Europe, in regards to cars and planes would have been delayed. Perhaps by twenty years?

Would Lindberg have crossed the Atlantic at the time he did, if it had not been for the technological leap during WWI? Or would that have been delayed by a decade or two as well?

What about Japan? One of the reasons why Japan became a militarized society with territorial ambitions (for fear of USA in particular) was that they gained significant territories in the Pacific as a result of being on the winning side during WWI. Would Japan have entered Manchuria? Would Russia? Would there be a Second Russo-Japanese War over Manchuria?
Could the Russian monarchy survive a second defeat if that became the result?
Would China have been carved up by the Western powers, as was already happening with gunboat-policy there?

Interestingly, Tibet would have been left in peace I think. Too remote to make it worth the effort.

Would Latin America have continued to accept the Monroe Doctrine, with the odd Banana Wars? Or would USA have found itself mired down in endless conflicts in Latin America - that was supported by Europe?

The Great Powers gave up on partitioning China with the Open Door Policy of 1900, no?

If the Ottoman Empire collapses and breaks up, then Germany might insist on direct control of the Berlin-to-Baghdad railway--or at least to have Britain control it in the event that Germany and Britain will already make up by that point in time due to their common fear of a more powerful and more threatening Russia.

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by JR76

It's hard to say what would have happened but I guess it depended on the way Hungary got its independence. The main reason a Habsburg didn't become king after the war was because of allied pressure and not because the Hungarians didn't want one. The country did officially remain a monarchy until 1946 under the regency of Horthy so it's not unlikely that we'd seen a king ascend the throne like we did in Spain.

Do you think that Italy's monarchy survives up to the present-day if France doesn't fall in 1940 and thus Italy never actually enters World War II?

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by Curryong

I don’t believe that by 1919 Hungary wanted anything more to do with the Habsburg dynasty. And the country seemed to be perfectly happy as a republic between the wars, though admittedly extremely right-wing.

Hungary was actually a kingdom without a king in the interwar era, with its Regent being Miklos Horthy, a former Admiral in a country that no longer had a navy due to it becoming landlocked as a result of its post-World War I territorial losses!

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by CyrilVladisla

If World War One had not occurred and Hungary had separated from Austria, should a different Habsburg be King of Hungary or a Hungarian nobleman be chosen to be King of Hungary?

A Hungarian attempt to separate from Austria in such a scenario might have itself been a trigger for an alternate World War I, actually. And if the Hungarians would have wanted the Russians to militarily help them secure their independence from Austria, then they might have needed to offer the Hungarian throne to some Russian Grand Duke or something like that. Seriously.

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by Durham

Just in terms of monarchies I think long term trends meant that Russia & Turkey (once the Ottoman Empire went) were likely to become republics.

Both the Ottoman & Austrian Empires were eventually going to be swept away by nationalism. There were already lots of cracks by 1914. I'm not sure what would be the fate of the Hapsburgs. Presumably emperors of a territory similar to modern day Austria. Or possibly Austrians might have wanted to become part of the German Empire?

Ireland might possibly have found peace within the UK with home rule or it might just have been a step towards inevitable independence. There would presumably have been no Easter Rising.

Without Vimy Ridge & Gallipoli what would have happened to national identity in the dominions?

And what about Poland? Carved up by three empires. A great & historic European people without a country of their own. It would surely have gained some sort of freedom in the C20th. After all once the Austrian controlled part became free then there would have been enormous pressure on German & Russian controlled Polish territory.

If Austria-Hungary implodes, Germany likely annexes the German and possibly Czech parts of Austria.

And if Russia ever actually experiences a successful revolution, then renewed independence for Poland is almost guaranteed, in my honest opinion. Poland might then subsequently be able to expand into Austrian Galicia through negotiations but German Poland would probably be off the table without a war.

[Futurist]

Originally Posted by Queen Ester

I wonder, had there been no war, would George offer asylum to the Russian Imperial Family. I think Nicholas II was finished no matter what, but perhaps without the war, the family could have been saved.

Very possibly Yes considering that without World War I, the perceived risk of revolution in Britain in response to a British offer of asylum for the former Russian Imperial Family should have been much, much smaller.