Did KH Make The "Right" Succession Decision?

[papillon]

Now that over five years have passed since his death and KA has a track record, do you think King Hussein made the "right" decision about succession? Is KA the best man for the job? If you think KH could have made a better choice, please say who and why you think so.

Thanks.

[papillon]

OK, so I forgot to declare how I voted and why. I voted "no" because I have read a number of reputable articles in the West saying that KA is perceived as too much of a lightweight by some of the more important leaders with whom he has to work and negotiate. I think this criticism might have been even more acute and publicized had KH chosen CP Hamzah, but things might be better in the region if KH had stuck with his original pick, who had already been groomed for the job for years, who is older and presumably more experienced and seasoned, and who had established relationships with other leaders and presumably an established reputation among them. If KA is perceived as a lightweight, I don't think it helps him that his wife seems to be an aspiring supermodel. These are sober times, and it just isn't coming off well. Just my observation and opinion.

[shelley]

It is wierd and sad for Jordan that after five years P. Hassan is still not heard or seen on Jordanian TV and radio etc. whilst he is often on all other Arab channels and also BBC, CNN etc etc. I know he was just asked to address the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee ahead of the G 8 meetings and was then in France meeting with officials. I believe he was asked to go to Saudi Arabia earlier this year too. It is a pity, when the region is in such a mess, that his long years of experience and contacts, as you say, are not being used for good. Actually, if he were in a position of authority, I guess he would be the most experienced head of state around - going back to 1965, and often having exercised real power, not just being a regent in , especially in the last ten years of K. H.'s life when he was away from Jordan for at least six months of every year. Despite not having an offical role in Jordan, there is no doubt that P. Hassan is one of few Arab leaders who seems to be asked his opinion and to join think tanks and various orgainisations etc. in his own right, rather than becuase of the position they hold. I am confused as to how things are in Jordan as depending on whom you listen to you get a different view, but it does seem a waste that these skills cannot be somehow used in the new Jordan. How much of what is going on econmonically is absolutely new, and how much was begun before ? How are things for the middle class and the poorer people ? I don't know but like you I wonder.

[bethan16]

Five years ago, I thought yes, King Hussein made the right decision. I had a lot of admiration for QN and the way she handled herself through KH's last months, and really felt for all of the children. I can understand KH wanting the succession after Prince Hassan to revert back to his (Hussein's) children, but from the very limited info I heard, Prince Hassan wasn't comfortable making that promise. After that, the next things I heard was that PHassan & family never went to say goodbye to KH (not sure if true but, again, what I heard), and then PSarvath (Hassan's wife) was supposedly redecorating the King's offices while the King was still alive (again, what I heard, not sure if true).

Now, five years later, with all of the turmoil in the ME going on and getting worse, and hindsight being 20/20, I think PHassan could have made a HUGE difference as King. His years of experience alone makes him the most qualified person. I just wish KA would see this and use PHassan as his main adviser - put the man's skills to use in other ways than giving speeches. (But then I can see why he's not doing it either - why put yourself next to such an experienced diplomat which clearly shows your lesser skills?) So, I voted no, KH didn't make the right decision.

[papillon]

Originally posted by shelley@Jun 16th, 2004 - 4:38 pm
It is a pity, when the region  is in such a mess, that his long years of experience and contacts, as you say, are not being used for good.

I am confused as to how things are in Jordan as depending on whom you listen to you get a different view, but it does seem a waste that these  skills  cannot be somehow used in the new Jordan.

So true. The region is a mess and in need of all the brainpower, energy, and experience it can get. It seems like both KA and QR haven't learned (or haven't chosen) to better utilize the skills of Prince Hassan and QN, who have so much to offer in the experience, respectability, and hard-won wisdom departments.

I'm a little saddened by the survey results so far. I had hoped I was the only one who thought maybe the lesser man got the position.

[shelley]

I think I have said it before in LTR certainly on other posts in other forums....P. Hassan did not have the choice to give that reassurance, short of offering to change the constitution ( which although do-able may not be a wise move in the present time - when you start chaging constitutions people may ask for other changes ). The Jordanian consititution as it it stands says that the of succession descends from the actual monarch, who is free to nominate a brother over a son, but says nothing about nephews. In the absence of a son it would revert to the elsdest nephew. So P. Hassan's views etc. weould have been irrelevant.

I also have heard that P. Hassan wanted to visit his brother, but that the King himself felt it was not advisable in the political atmosphere of the region to leave the country without either of them . The practice was for the both of them to alternate. Occasionaly there was a day or so when the present King or P. Mohammed would be regent but very rarely, and never anyone else. (This is now changed, almost all the male member of the JRF have been regent at some pont in the 5 years, except P. Hassan or Prince Rashid) I have heard from people close to people who work for the couple P. Sarvath tried to visit 3 times, once waiting in the US to see the K. for over week but was told it was not convenient. P. Rashid did go., saw the King but then Q. N asked him to leave. Many other members of the family and close friends were discouraged from visiting and even those that were there often had to wait weeks before being allowed to see the ailing king. And no, it is now widely accepted in Jordfan that P. Sarvath did not try to redecorate the palace. It is not in the nature of the woman. I have written about this in other threads as well. There is no doubt that Q. Rania has been much more visible and high profile and in that way raised the image of Jordan in some ways than P. Sarvath would ever have done . Her style is sompletely different to P. Sarvath. Is this good or bad ? I do not know.

[Dreamcatchergrl]

I voted yes because I think that KH made the right decision in the end.

Prince Hassan had moved in the last months of his brother's life to consolidate his grip on power in Jordan. He attempted to appoint people to significant posts in the Jordanian military without informing his brother. Abdullah, sensing that his position as probable future army chief of staff was being threatened informed his father of the political manuevering going on behind his back. KH was getting weaker but he still had a grip on the reins of power. He chose to bypass Hassan in favor of Abdullah. Would KA have had this opportunity if Hasssan had just waited? No.

Please remember that most of the ruling men in power in that region of the ME are aging. Of course they feel that KA with his 'partnership' with his wife and his plans for developing Jordan into an industrialized nation are the work of a lightweight that does not have a grip on the complex issues facing the region.

Only KA would have been able to walk the tightrope between the Arab states and the west after 9-11. Hassan and Hamzah would have veered too far to the West for the liking of the Jordanian people and the Arab world. Besides Hamzah was way too young. In my opinion, he still is. He needs time to be his own man rather than a pale imitation of his father. No matter what his mother thinks.

I also think KA has made some interesting maneuvers towards the Arab world in the past year or so. While Hassan has been lobbying for a Hashemite based monarchy in Iraq, KA has been forging some new alliances through the marriages of his siblings.

These are thhe reasons why I voted 'yes'. He was the best choice.

[shelley]

K. Hussein had in fact handed over total powers to P. Hassan during those last six months. Altough there was therefore no consitutional requirement to do so, P. Hassan sent weekly reports to the K. and frequently consutlted with him on all major decisons over the phone. Unfortunately, it is now clear that the now disgraced former Chief of Security and the then Head of the Army played an unfortunate role during the last few weeks of the king's life, along with some others, towards P. Hassan. It is a pity as perhaps Jordan and the region need the man K. Hussein refered to as 'his fox' when Mr. Rabin presented Gen. Sharon as 'his bear'. The fox managed to wrest a lasting peace for Jordan out of the Israeli bear. The Arabs need more foxes against the bears, sloths, hyenas and jackels around not to mention eager beavers ! I am sure there could a place for both men in today's Jordan. It was big enough before for the two brothers for over 35 years, who shared the work between them. I think yoiu are mistaken in view of P. Hassan. he is very well understood and appreciated by the Arab man in the street as well the Europeans - one of the few in Arab region who straddles both worlds with equal skill.

[tiaraprin]

This is a difficult question. So many points of view swirl around that it is hard to see what is right. I wish that King Hussein had not died and had more time to promote peace and goodwill in the Middle East. However, I think there is no way there will ever be peace. There are too many fanatics who won't listen to reason and agree to disagree about certain things.

But King Hussein has come the closest to succeeding in this aim.

[shelley]

I left out vultures, which also abound.....!

[papillon]

Originally posted by Dreamcatchergrl@Jun 17th, 2004 - 3:26 am
Only KA would have been able to walk the tightrope between the Arab states and the west after 9-11. Hassan and Hamzah would have veered too far to the West for the liking of the Jordanian people and the Arab world. Besides Hamzah was way too young. In my opinion, he still is. He needs time to be his own man rather than a pale imitation of his father. No matter what his mother thinks.

What did KA do in the aftermath of 9/11 that really showed any genius or leadership? I don't agree that "only" he could've walked this tightrope. I think many of us in the States were agog that no Arab leader (ruler or religious leader, just anyone) really emerged in the aftermath to right the boat. I don't know what Hamzah might've done in that situation, but I wholly agree with you that, despite his mother's fondest wishes, he is far too young for the job. Just too little life and leadership experience, regardless of how intelligent he might be. He would have very little credibility on the world stage. Picking him would have been a big mistake.

[shelley]

I hope this thread is fully read by people interested in Middle Eastern topics as it would useful to hear from some of the Jordanians who post to that forum. People on the ground should have the best perspective.

[shelley]

When I mentioned this discussion to a friend of mine who is married to a Jordanian and has lived a long time in Amman, this is what she said :

You are right to assume that much of the so called dirt on Prince Hassan and Princess Sarvath was concocted by the officials you mention. Battikhi has since been convicted of embezzling millions of dinars and after a spell in gaol is under house arrest. Ka'abneh ( former army chief ) cannot leave the country for fear of arrest as he is accused by interpol of using Jordanian Army aircraft to transport guns he was selling to various South American countries. Many of us believe that when it became clear that the late King was sicker than we all believed, these individuals and others like them with many skeletons in their closets, panicked. Prince Hassan was known to have raised questions as to the enormous amounts of money these men had at their disposal ( for example, Ka'abneh, who come from a modest background managed to build a JD 3 million residence on an army salary). The late king had been ailing for ten months before his illness was diagonosed properly, and was probably ill for much longer. For years his primary concern was the peace of the Middle East and so advantage had been taken of a less than vigilant rule at home. These officials fearing that with a King Hassan too many uncomfortable questions would be asked, as was already happening during the regency period, and being well aware of the tensions and jealousies with the Royal family, decided to turn this to their advantage. Sadly there were enough people with their own agendas and insecurities about the future who were willing to give them a hearing. Although he would have been fair and just there is no doubt that Prince Hassan's style is very different to his late brother's. The way in he and Princess Sarvath brought up and educated their family is a clear indication of that. No one here today, and not even that many five years ago, believed the slurs, but they served their purpose at the time. So is Jordan better off ? It depends from where you stand. A lot of money is coming into the country and the present King believes in a trickle down affect, hoping that the huge multi million projects that he has initiated will ultimately benefit all the population, although in theinterim it seems a few people are getting very rich indded, and the poor and the middle class are having to tighten their belts. Prince Hassan belived in what he called a bottom up approach where projects were created which enabled people to improve their quality of life and go up - so he believed in teacher training , roads, hospitals, mass housing, citizens conferences, municipal and borough elections etc. , national debate whatever. The present government believes in IT, toursim, high profile international conferences etc. There is a definite desire to present a more slick, glossy public face of Jordan, in the hope that this will attract the sort of investment they are looking for. .King Hussein's Jordan was a more traditional Arab society. Prince Hassan's would have probably combined the old and the new, being in that he was himself a mixture of both cultures, education and tradition. King Abdullah's vision is of a modern state with a totally international image. He and his wife are young and his influence and cultural affinities are western, and her's from the Gulf where she was born and brought up. are basically Different men, different styles. As the mother and grandmother of Jordanians, I hope the present King succeeds in his endeavors, as he is what we have now.

[tiaraprin]

That post from the Jordanian point of view was quite informative and enlightening!! Thank you for sharing!

[alia_musallam]

shelley all I can do is applaud!

there are so many vicious rumours about PHassan and his family and it is wonderful for you to put them all straight, i need to add that I think he would have made the best leader especially since 9/11 due to his incredible world outlook and his emphasis on interfaith and intercultural relations. it is entirely false to claim that he supports the idea of a hashemite monarchy in iraq when if you actually read some of his interviews and articles you can see that he is only interested in playing a one-off role to conciliate all sides and establish the foundations of a democracy.

if phassan had become king hassan then i think that jordan would be in a lot better off then it is now.

[shelley]

Thank you Alia. I am glad that as a Jordanian you give my views some credit. I sometimes think that the people I still hear from in Jordan must be a very small isolated group of people. I wonder if you read the discussions I had with two people in the Asian Royals Message Board ? There was someone called Gloria who seemed to share my views but these were quite empthatically attacked by these guys. I feel quite sorry for her as they were quite rude.

[alia_musallam]

What you're saying is the truth and that is all, but it seems that some people obviously have no idea about Jordan and the political intrigues and come away with a very distorted picture of what happened and is still happening today.

I have just checked out the asians royal message board and there someone says "An uncle who craves power. Sorry but he does." I totally disagree that PHassan craves power, in fact he does the complete opposite as the roles he has created for himself are purely intellectual ones with the aim of reconciling east and west, no mention of any power for himself. I sugest that the person who wrote that should read not just the newspapers but also Phassan's speeches and articles themselves. He would have brought a deeper sense of internationalism to Jordan, unlike the superficial one the KA has instituted, not just begging the West for money and putting on pretty shows like a circus dog, but giving Jordan a stronger international position by actively participating on both sides (East and West).

The income gap in jordan is growing at the fastest rate ever, as the rich are getting richer and the middle and lower classes are having a harder time, all because of KAbdullah's topdown 'reforms' which would and could never have taken place under HMKing Hussein or PHassan where the emphasis was on grassroots initiatives. It is also known that PHassan is the most honest man in Jordan, something that is viewed negatively by some (the corrupt officials who intrigued him out of the palace) as he would have cracked down upon them. This is unlike KHussein's sons who are all (except Hamzah) known for their philandering and their dealings.

[alia_musallam]

and that guy on asians royal board, julian, obviously has no idea what he's on about... he claims that the news reports and analysis are enough to have an 'objective' opinion, but he has obviously never met an educated jordanian before as anyone could tell him what went on.

[shelley]

Alia, I am so glad to read your post. It restores my faith in the judgement of my Jordanian friends. I hope that those guys from the Asian Royals message Board read what you say. Perhaps you should post there too. I really do feel strongly about the way in which P. Hassan has been maligned and continues to be by some.