Russia, Monarchy and Restoration

[BorisRom]

Dear Black Cat, BeatrixFan and all participants of discussion of this theme,
I with the big interest and pleasure have read your messages and I agree with the majority of posts. For a long time I am interested in a history of Russia and especially in time of board of Nicholas II (see my posts in other themes of this forum also - “ Nicholas and Alexandra ” and “ OTMAA ’).
__ I think, the Russia really need the hereditary monarchy and I think, that the monarchy in Russia will be restored in 2012-2014.
__ Starting approximately since 2003 in Russian mass-media in increasing frequency there are articles for the benefit of the monarchy. For example, on February, 7, 2004 in the largest newspaper "News (Известия)" the article of the colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs R.Zlotnikov «Monarchy - mother of a prosperity» has been published:

___«Earlier at a word "monarchy" I contemptiously bent lips. People, in the modern world seriously concerned to a monarchy, seemed to me "clowns", such played "old teenagers".
But once I saw the directory with a rating of the United Nations on quality and life expectancy. I with surprise have found out, that seven countries from first ten are the monarchies. I tried to explain it by accidental. Then I have thought, that all these countries first of all are democracies. A monarchy there - only the tradition which is not having any practical value. Is it possible to count Canada or Australia as the monarchic states? In fact where are they, and where are the British queen?! But this question has touched me to the quick, and I started "to dig". And I have come to the conclusions which have struck me.
First, the monarchy is not one of forms of board, but more likely the most successful form of the organization of the nation. I understand under "the nation" not the certain limited ethnos, but all set of peoples, which managed to create a strong and steady state, irrespective of the sizes of this state.
Let's tell, Flamand-Wallon nation in due time has managed to create the Kingdom Belgium, Austria-Hungary-Czeho-Slovakia - mighty Austria-Hungary, and Serbo-Croatian - Yugoslavia.
___ Interesting law: in case of the multinational state an integrity of the country is kept only at safety of a monarchy. And where a monarchy had been lost, there such state had been destroyed.
Today a monarchy is extremely flexible and many-sided system in a range from ancient forms (successfully working in the Arabian states of the Near East), up to a monarchic variant of the democratic state in many European countries.
Russia in Europe has "country - twin" which has passed through the revolution, and through the civil war, and through the variant of totalitarianism. It is Spain. And so, when the monarchy there has revived, in this country there were no steady political parties. Spain hardly left the totalitarian past. Spaniards had the putsch, and the Chechens - Basques. However they have done without execution of parliament and without «antiterrorist operation», and they have managed thus to develop(unwrap) priorities of all society, that it itself (without the help of militarians) has repulsed terrorism. After only ten years Spaniards already had stable economy and have come in members of European Economic Community...
And now compare it what we (Russians) have on 16-th year of "democratic transformations".
___ Thus, a monarchy is not an appendix to a stability and a prosperity, but it is an additional resource allowing more easy to overcome illness, to recover from political and economic defeats more faster».

You can look my article about restoration of a monarchy in Russia (in Russian):
http://www.petroprognoz.spb.ru/prognostic/mistic/art42-Monarhia2014.html

Boris

I’m sorry for my imperfect English

[branchg]

I do not believe the Russian people are prepared to support a restoration of the monarchy any time soon. While there is a monarchist element present in society, the majority of Russians are not interested in visiting the past and most have no point of reference.

It is irrelevant to wider issues in a weak democracy and dictatorship tendencies in the Kremlin.

[HRH Kerry]

Originally Posted by branchg

I do not believe the Russian people are prepared to support a restoration of the monarchy any time soon. While there is a monarchist element present in society, the majority of Russians are not interested in visiting the past and most have no point of reference.

It is irrelevant to wider issues in a weak democracy and dictatorship tendencies in the Kremlin.

I agree. The government itself has someways to go as I feel they aren't as stable as they can be but they are getting there. When will they be ready to accept this change?

[BorisRom]

Dears Branchg, Alison20, Kerry and all

1. I’m agree that a restoration of the monarchy in Russia is irrelevant to wider issues in a weak democracy and dictatorship tendencies in the Kremlin. I’m agree that the majority of Russians are not prepared to support a restoration of the monarchy now. Moreover, the majority of Russians badly understand a foundations and many principles of democracy. Alas, we have the democracy (the week democracy) in March-October 1917 and 1991-1996 (may be 2002) only.
2. However, all these statements were true for Spain and Spaniards in 1970th years also - before coming to power of king Juan Carlos I in 1978. As far as I know, the majority of Spaniards those years have rather critically apprehended a restoration of a monarchy and even the person of Juan Carlos too.

By the way, this year Russian radio station «Echo of Moscow» has carried out an interrogation: Would you like, that such person how Juan Carlos, has headed Russia?
( http://www.echo.msk.ru/cgi-bin/v.cgi?mode=result&poll_id=3081 )
Results of voting on the air:
«Yes» = 95 %
«No» = 5 %
You can open Polls’s List:
<http://www.echo.msk.ru/cgi-bin/v.cgi>
and to find there any leader (under the question “Do you want…” (in Russian)) and to click “See a result ” (in Russian).
For example:
Juan CARLOS: +95%/-5%
Jackues CHIRAC +91%/-9%
Hillari CLINTON: +89%-11%
Toni BLAIR: +82%/-18%
Shimon PERES: +76%/-24%
Hugo CHAVES: +55%/-45%
Silvio BERLUSCONI: +42%/-58%
So, the firsts five Leaders have ratings more than Putin (his rating is about 70-73% )


Boris

[Jo of Palatine]

IMHO one real important problem is that there is no male pretender of the direct line. Head of the House of Romanov as accepted by the Rusian government and European royality is a woman whose son is a Prussian prince - a German. While this was okay with Empress Elisabeth and her German nephew Peter II. I don't see public support for a woman with a German son as heir.

[Alison20]

Very interesting posting, BorisRom. (And your English is quite intelligible - and light-years better than most of our Russian!).

I always feel that a constitutional monarchy has the advantage of removing politics from the Head of State. This allows everyone to look to the monarchy in its role of representing the nation, its traditions and aspirations. And this is why, as you state, multicultural/multilingual countries can survive with this form of government.

[HRH Kerry]

The mother should be Russian Orthodox but what about the "candidate"? Does Prince Michael practice catholism or is it just his wife?

[BorisRom]

Kerry,
I think, any "candidate" should accept Orthodoxy together with the wife.
On the other hand, the modern religious situation in Russia very much differs from the situation in Imperial Russia (till 1917). Till 1917 Orthodoxy was «the state religion». Now 4 traditional faiths formally are equal in Russia: Orthodoxy, Moslem, Buddhism and Judaic faith. On the other hand, till 1917 the overwhelming majority of the population were the truly faithful (believers). Now about 80 % of the population count themselves as orthodox, but only 4 % of "orthodox people" on a regular basis attend Church.
Whether it is possible to imagine a monarchy (in Russia), which is not basing on Orthodoxy or even on christianity in general? Whether it is probably to elect a Tzar without an intronaton, - without a blessing by Russian Orthodox Church?
Or, on the contrary, whether it is possible to present, that all 4 religions will bless on reign of the monarch elected by people? First there should be an election (national elections by a Zemsky cathedral, by analogy to 1612 ?) and after that there should be a blessing by all four religions.
I think, just the last variant is represented unique true. In this case an acceptance of Orthodoxy by the candidate and his wife is desirable, but not obligatory.
Probably, the majority of Russians will be satisfied by "Forsyte's three principles" and will not demand an accepting by the candidate of Orthodoxy.

Boris

[Alison20]

Prince Michael is Church of England. His wife is Catholic. Both his children were brought up Church of England. However, the Church of England is in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by Alison20

Prince Michael is Church of England. His wife is Catholic. Both his children were brought up Church of England. However, the Church of England is in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Alison20,
thank you for the information.
Regards
Boris

[HRH Kerry]

Originally Posted by Alison20

Prince Michael is Church of England. His wife is Catholic. Both his children were brought up Church of England. However, the Church of England is in communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Thanks, Alison20. I wasn't sure what faith Prince Michael was. I only knew that Princess Michael was Catholic.

[HRH Kerry]

I would think that the religion does matter. As you've stated that 80% of the population is orthodox. Religion is a very touchy subject. Even though there hasn't been a monarchy in quite sometime, I would think that not being an orthodox monarch would be asking too much of the people of Russia. To change that tradition of religion to one less popular in the country would IMO lead to political unrest. Russia has come along way so I wouldn't want to see it go backwards.

[BorisRom]

I think, the nearest four-five years will be rather complex(difficult) and heavy for the Kremlin independent of who will president of Russia. The Kremlin after 2003 has made too many critical mistakes in internal and foreign policy (in economy also). The situation for Russia will be even catastrophic if the prices for oil will go down twice (or even less, on 30-40 %). In any case, in five-six years I predict for Russia very large and cardinal changes in a state system.
Boris

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by kerry

I would think that the religion does matter. As you've stated that 80% of the population is orthodox. Religion is a very touchy subject...

Kerry,
I agree with you. However, moslems and Judaic people of Russia can do not agree with us. 20 % of the population of Russia are moslems. The religious question in Russia is certainly important, but is not the major.
In any case you are right and an acceptance of Orthodoxy by the candidate and by his wife is very desirable.
Boris

[HRH Kerry]

Jo of Palatine,
I have never really familiarized myself with Lord Freddie, son of Prince Michael. He seems to be quite a character. I have to agree that he isn't heir apparent material.

Boris,
There seems to be a number of claimants to the throne. Do you think any of these have a chance if this scenario comes to fruition? Which claimant has the most support?

[BorisRom]

Originally Posted by kerry

Boris, There seems to be a number of claimants to the throne. Do you think any of these have a chance if this scenario comes to fruition? Which claimant has the most support?

Kerry
As far as I know, any sociological interrogations about pretenders were not carried out. Votings on radio «Echo of Moscow» determined only preferences of their hearers concerning working foreign leaders.
As far as I know, Russian monarchic organizations have no common opinion. I am not a member of any monarchist party. I'm a writer, historian and prognosist (foreteller ). Many of my forecasts till now came true. I published the forecasts about restoration of a monarchy in Russia for 2012-2014 since 1999. Starting approximately since 2003 in Russian mass-media in increasing frequency there are articles for the benefit of the monarchy.
I think now it is very difficult to define(determine) a circle (some) of the real pretenders. In 1613 dynasty Rurickovichs was replaced by Romanov's by dynasty at will of "Greatest Zemsky cathedral (Duma)" (elected by people; analogue of the constitutional assembly). In 1613 the Romanov's sort (stock) was not a favorite among applicants from the very beginning. It is impossible to exclude that in 2012-2014 a new dynasty will be chosen. Nevertheless, I think, that pretenders from Romanov's or\and Rurickovich's will have good chances.
Besides, two-three persons in Russia name themselves the son of tsarevitch Alexey who has been ostensibly rescued on July, 17, 1918.

The monk foreteller Avel (1757-1841) wrote, that the name of the new monarch will be the third name in a history of Russia. To this prophecy can correspond :

1. Nicholas III;
2. Michael III;
3. Alexey III, - cesarevitch Alexey was lost (whether was lost?) on July, 17, 1918 several minutes after violent death of Nicholas II.
If to consider Rurickovichs also, after prince Oleg and princess Olga:
4. Oleg III

Boris

[HRH Kerry]

Okay, I haven't been up on Russian history and I admit that. Young Alexei's remains were never found, right? But with the modern technology in science today, it is very possible to but some of these claims to rest. The DNA of the deceased Romanov family has already been catalogued so it wouldn't prove too difficult. But then again, that could open up the door for more people to throw their names in the kitty.

[BorisRom]

Kerry,
Yes, you are right.

[BorisRom]

Now, let me to designate some objective certificates of movement of Russia to restoration of a monarchy.
___ 1. Every year of ever less of Russians want the restoration of the USSR and more and more Russians are interested in a history of imperial Russia. According to last polls, only 17 % of Russians want the restoration of the USSR. On the other hand, heads of the largest telechannels speak, that the telecasts and films about Imperial Russia have high growing ratings. N.B.: nostalgia about Imperial Russia is nostalgia about time of board of Nikolay II in 1906-1917 (constitutional monarchy). Starting approximately since 2003 in Russian mass-media in increasing frequency there are articles for the benefit of the monarchy.
However, unfortunately, a relation of Russians to democracy improves slowly. I think, now no more than half of Russians completely support all democratic principles.
___ 2. As "lord rankin" has correctly noted,
“Considering President Putin holds more constitutional power than Tsar Nicholas II did after 1905 , I would think moving to a constitutional monarchy would be incredibly beneficial and contribute to the stabilization of the political climate there. I have read and learned much about the Russian culture in my life and I have to say that Russians seem to gravitate to a central figure of authority and respect. I believe a monarchy would fulfill that need”.
___ I think, president Putin does not wish restoration of a monarchy, but many Russians already perceive him as "tsar". 38 % of Russians are ready to give to him lifelong presidency However, 95 % of Russians would like to see as a president (a tsar?) such person, as the Spanish king Juan CARLOS!
___ 3. The Bishops's cathedral of Russian Orthodox Church several years ago has accepted «A social doctrine ROC» where it is written, that ROC counts a theocracy as the maximum(supreme) form of a state system, and the following form more comprehensible and favorable to the Christians is a monarchy.

Boris

[HRH Kerry]

Maybe Putin would think he has to compete with the monarchy. You did state that his approval rating is 70-73%. After all, monarchies seem to have a positive effect on their people. Maybe the president won't be too happy if his rating takes another beating.