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  #1241  
Old 07-14-2008, 06:36 PM
Anna was Franziska's Avatar
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Is there any way we can contact him, and ask him if his estimations have changed based on the Bayesian method? Dr. Melton was very accesible, as was Ginter, I don't think I've ever heard of anyone writing Gill himself.

Really, anything in the high 90% range is more than impressive. As I've said before, I've seen paternity cases and criminal cases decided on less, as little as 96% and no one ever cries foul as they do in the AA case (though their personal lives depend on it)

In the end, why would AA be anyone else than FS? FS and AN were always the only two suspects, one is ruled out.
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  #1242  
Old 07-14-2008, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Elspeth View Post
(I'm away from home this week so I can't check).
Good Lord Elspeth! You're on vacation and you're POSTING??
Oh.
Wait.
I did that when I was in Hawai'i. . . .
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  #1243  
Old 07-14-2008, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska View Post
Is there any way we can contact him, and ask him if his estimations have changed based on the Bayesian method? Dr. Melton was very accesible, as was Ginter, I don't think I've ever heard of anyone writing Gill himself.
I don't know which of the authors did the statistical analysis, but a few months ago I contacted Dr Stoneking (the lead author on the paper) for his comments, which I've posted in the "The Gill Paper" thread. The relevant part of his response to me was this:

"These DNA tests therefore indicate that Anna Anderson was not Anastasia, and most likely she was Franzisca Schanzkowska. I would further add that these sorts of DNA tests are considered highly reliable and are used routinely in the forensic DNA community."

So as of earlier this year, his opinion was that Anna Anderson was not Anastasia but he wasn't as certain that she was Franziska, saying that most likely she was Franziska, which is a less definite statement than the one about Anastasia. I mean, if you asked him to give a yes-or-no answer about Franziska it looks as though he'd say "yes" - I'm not trying to suggest he thinks there's massive doubt. It's just that even recently it seems that this conclusion is less certain than the Anastasia one.

Quote:
Really, anything in the high 90% range is more than impressive. As I've said before, I've seen paternity cases and criminal cases decided on less, as little as 96% and no one ever cries foul as they do in the AA case (though their personal lives depend on it)
That probably wouldn't be mtDNA testing, which isn't useful in paternity tests as far as I know. Once you're using different tests, the standards of proof will probably also be different.

Quote:
In the end, why would AA be anyone else than FS? FS and AN were always the only two suspects, one is ruled out.
Doesn't mean there isn't a third person out there that nobody knew about. I mean, I can't answer this one because I'm not particularly bothered one way or the other who she was so I haven't been following all the hearsay evidence and other stuff; I just didn't like some of the posts that were trashing the reputation of the scientists involved in the DNA analyses.
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  #1244  
Old 07-14-2008, 11:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Elspeth View Post
I don't know which of the authors did the statistical analysis, but a few months ago I contacted Dr Stoneking (the lead author on the paper) for his comments, which I've posted in the "The Gill Paper" thread. The relevant part of his response to me was this:

"These DNA tests therefore indicate that Anna Anderson was not Anastasia, and most likely she was Franzisca Schanzkowska. I would further add that these sorts of DNA tests are considered highly reliable and are used routinely in the forensic DNA community."
That sounds like a good response, thanks for writing him and sharing with us. It does seem the scientists were certain the sample was AA's, and far too much has been made of Gill's comment 'if you accept this is from AA' by those who want to hold onto hope. I really don't think the scientists would have gone to so much trouble over this and had the papers done and all if they had thought for a minute they were not AA's. Also the idea of a switch and misconduct is so offensive and preposterous it's not even a valid topic to discuss.


Quote:
Doesn't mean there isn't a third person out there that nobody knew about. I mean, I can't answer this one because I'm not particularly bothered one way or the other who she was so I haven't been following all the hearsay evidence and other stuff; I just didn't like some of the posts that were trashing the reputation of the scientists involved in the DNA analyses.
I agree about the scientist trashing, but the 'anonymous long lost identical cousin' theory has also been a very frustrating thing to deal with in these discussions. *sigh* I can't understand why there would be so much consideration of such astronomical odds of the alternate position when it's obvious that all signs point to FS and where there's smoke, there's fire. In some versions, the mysterious cousin is a CHEKA plant.
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  #1245  
Old 07-15-2008, 12:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska View Post
In some versions, the mysterious cousin is a CHEKA plant.
I have never heard of that. Do you have a book to reference so I can check that out? Thanks.
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  #1246  
Old 07-15-2008, 02:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elspeth
Doesn't mean there isn't a third person out there that nobody knew about. I mean, I can't answer this one because I'm not particularly bothered one way or the other who she was so I haven't been following all the hearsay evidence and other stuff; I just didn't like some of the posts that were trashing the reputation of the scientists involved in the DNA analyses.
That is how I feel but with another dislike to add, I hate the idea of an impostor being able to get away with the pretense that she was the poor murdered GD Anastasia, Tatiana, Maria or even Olga. It is too cruel and an insult to their memory.
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  #1247  
Old 07-15-2008, 05:39 AM
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The Administrators are becoming increasingly concerned at some of the statements and claims being made in this thread. Members are reminded of the need to avoid posting statements that are libellous or defamatory.

To avoid the threat of legal action this means staying away from personal attacks against published authors. Personal attacks include accusations that certain statements in books are lies, or are based on lies, as well as accusations that the authors are liars or that their sources are liars (which implies that the authors have knowingly included false information).

There is a difference between saying that you disagree with someone, that someone is wrong, and that someone is lying. As you progress along that list you need to back up statements with increasingly solid proof. Please note that quoting posters or sources from other discussion boards does not constitute such proof.

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  #1248  
Old 07-15-2008, 07:07 AM
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I have never called anyone a 'liar' and have purposely avoided posting anything that can make me be accused of that, and I believe if all the posts are read this will bear out. However, if this includes even statements such as that I don't believe everything that's in Rathlef's book because she was on AA's side, or that Chat doesn't believe anything in Gilliard's book because he was against her, then we really have nothing to discuss here anymore because basically all we do is match quotes and give reasons for not accepting each other's quotes.

I also must bring to attention that when it comes to accusations, direct or insinuated, no one has been more 'defamed' than the DNA scientists, Martha Jefferson Hospital, the British Crown and the Russian Gov't, in all the ridiculous accusations that the DNA testing was 'shady', there was intentional mishandling or wrongdoing to achieve a certain result, or that results or even bone fragments were invented and/or lied about to try to trick people. Even the very position that AA might still be AN after the DNA tests proved otherwise alludes to this position, for if the poster accepted the results, there would not still be a discussion, and if they don't accept the results, it has to be due to aforementioned reasons. As we all know, the open statements regarding accusations of tampering and/or incompetence of the scientists have been very common here, and I don't think it's right, now that the spectre of 'legal action' has been raised, that this issue also not be addressed.

Elsewhere, other mods and admins have even stated that unless valid proof of tampering or misconduct in the DNA testing be produced and proven, no such allegations should be made, and due to this, and the fact that, (barring conspiracy theories) all the bodies are now accounted for, no discussion of AA = AN as a viable, defensible position continue, (or that Heino Tammet= Alexei, etc) only the aspects of the claimant stories as they appear in a historical sense.
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  #1249  
Old 07-15-2008, 08:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OlgaNikolaievna View Post
. …She remembered the girls so well she was able to describe in detail the formation of their teeth, fingers and nails. Being a person who knew the girls that closely and saying with no reservations at all that the Miss Unknown was not one of the girls looks very bad for the claimant and her supporting cast. Therefore Sophie must become an untrustworthy liar. I do not believe she was.


Can you tell me where you read this? I was not aware that that Baroness was a dental specialist, much less a manicurist. (Just how close did she get to the girls? I have this image of her peering closely into their mouths during her visits to Tsarskoe Selo .) Apart from which by the time she visited Dalldorf, AA had had several teeth removed the year before and so the Baroness wouldn't have been able to done any kind of comparison.

Incidentally, I believe it was Felix Yussopuv (Chat will be able to confirm this or correct me) who when shown a picture of AA's hands thought that it was a picture of Tsarina's hands.
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  #1250  
Old 07-15-2008, 08:54 AM
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It seemed to me, without going through all the threads again, that in the main it was the poster Chat-Noir that was calling people liars IMHO. He often states Gillard and the Baroness as liars in relation to AA etc. While I am new here I was surprised at the tone Chat_Noir takes to others who post valid views for discussion but if they do not agree with his they are shot down. A was F seem to be at the receaving end of this more than most. She puts forward a view that is supported by evidence in the form of DNA etc.

If people are long dead they can be called liars if needed as they cannot start a court action. Those alive I agree could and we should not without good evidence suggest. this Authors would normally be mistaken rather than issuing a lie knowingly in their works.

The AA debate is a valid debate in that from the DNA we see that she was not AN and therefore that leads to only one valid view point. As to those who supported her we can debate their reasons why they did so as some must have know she was not who she stated she was, Such as Botkin who had known the real AN. This would seem to go for all involved such as Gillard etc as their roles demand an explination from an historical point of view on both sides of the argument although AA not being AN is the winning side now as we all know.

As to modern day people we must be careful. Most of us would not say that the people who carried out the DNA testing have lied, why on earth would they, but some do argue this who do not like the results that have come out against AA. Some seem to suggest that even the Royal family are in on a lie to defraud the public with regard to the ID of AA and this must be disputed.

It seems to me that the only persons who have a reason to call anyone a liar are those who still try to suggest with a straight face that AA was AN as this would seem to be the only way to get around the strong evidence that she was a Polish factory worker who managed to fool many people over many years and damage and hurt the reputaitons of such people as GD Olga who deserve in light of modern evidence to have their point of view put and their reputations corrected to show that they were correct the entire time.

The whole AA episode was a lie that has gone on for long enough and with the assistance of the modern day evidence must be argued to show just who AA actually was and who and why others have supported her even to this day and age, including their possible reasons why.
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  #1251  
Old 07-15-2008, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska View Post

Elsewhere, other mods and admins have even stated that unless valid proof of tampering or misconduct in the DNA testing be produced and proven, no such allegations should be made, and due to this, and the fact that, (barring conspiracy theories) all the bodies are now accounted for, no discussion of AA = AN as a viable, defensible position continue, (or that Heino Tammet= Alexei, etc) only the aspects of the claimant stories as they appear in a historical sense.
So what are you saying? That the debate on this forum should also be shut down?
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  #1252  
Old 07-15-2008, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska View Post
I also must bring to attention that when it comes to accusations, direct or insinuated, no one has been more 'defamed' than the DNA scientists, Martha Jefferson Hospital, the British Crown and the Russian Gov't, in all the ridiculous accusations that the DNA testing was 'shady', there was intentional mishandling or wrongdoing to achieve a certain result, or that results or even bone fragments were invented and/or lied about to try to trick people. Even the very position that AA might still be AN after the DNA tests proved otherwise alludes to this position, for if the poster accepted the results, there would not still be a discussion, and if they don't accept the results, it has to be due to aforementioned reasons. As we all know, the open statements regarding accusations of tampering and/or incompetence of the scientists have been very common here, and I don't think it's right, now that the spectre of 'legal action' has been raised, that this issue also not be addressed.

.
Well personally I certainly disagree with that. You know perfectly well that I don't think AA was FS but I've never said that any of the scientists "intentionally mishandled", "invented results or bone fragments" (who did say that by the way - anyone?) or indeed that they were "incompetent". What I have said is that - unlike the Pope - I don't believe DNA is infallible (and I am not prepared to accept the opinion of someone you quoted who doesn't even give his full name). I respect your right to have an opinion - even if I don't like the way you voice it sometimes - so why can't you do the same for others without putting words in our mouths?
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  #1253  
Old 07-15-2008, 09:38 AM
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This article by Laurie Cohen originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal in November 1997 with regard to an unrelated criminal case.

“In the scientific community, though, the much-sought-after forensic tool is being greeted with skepticism. While juries may assume one type of DNA is the same as another, the truth is that mitochondrial DNA—which is inherited from the mother’s side only—doesn’t provide the same kind of unique fingerprint as nuclear DNA. The same mitochondrial DNA sequence is shared by siblings and their mother and all of a person’s maternal relatives for many generations. And a 1993 British study found that even among unrelated people, four out of 100 who were tested shared the same mitochondrial DNA sequence.”

http://www.themacdonaldcase.org/accuracy.html

Obviously it’s the bit I’ve highlighted that interests me. (See link for whole article.) I appreciate that a long time has passed since then but if this is true then that seems a bit less than 99% certainty to me. Elspeth, do you have any idea what study this refers to?
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  #1254  
Old 07-15-2008, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by ferrymansdaughter View Post
Well personally I certainly disagree with that. You know perfectly well that I don't think AA was FS but I've never said that any of the scientists "intentionally mishandled", "invented results or bone fragments" (who did say that by the way - anyone?) or indeed that they were "incompetent". What I have said is that - unlike the Pope - I don't believe DNA is infallible (and I am not prepared to accept the opinion of someone you quoted who doesn't even give his full name). I respect your right to have an opinion - even if I don't like the way you voice it sometimes - so why can't you do the same for others without putting words in our mouths?
Perhaps you haven't alleged incompetance or intentional tampering, but others of the same position have. In addition to that, the very position that AA might still be AN even after the DNA ruled out AA being AN in FOUR TESTS which all matched up, and the bones found last year were found to be the last two missing children, proving there were no survivors regardless of what the AA results said, is just as much as saying that you do not believe or accept the results found by several scientists. Isn't that technically the same thing (or worse) as saying you don't accept certain quotes in certain books by certain people, and if one is an accusation, why not the other?
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  #1255  
Old 07-15-2008, 11:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ferrymansdaughter View Post
This article by Laurie Cohen originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal in November 1997 with regard to an unrelated criminal case.

“In the scientific community, though, the much-sought-after forensic tool is being greeted with skepticism. While juries may assume one type of DNA is the same as another, the truth is that mitochondrial DNA—which is inherited from the mother’s side only—doesn’t provide the same kind of unique fingerprint as nuclear DNA. The same mitochondrial DNA sequence is shared by siblings and their mother and all of a person’s maternal relatives for many generations. And a 1993 British study found that even among unrelated people, four out of 100 who were tested shared the same mitochondrial DNA sequence.”

http://www.themacdonaldcase.org/accuracy.html

Obviously it’s the bit I’ve highlighted that interests me. (See link for whole article.) I appreciate that a long time has passed since then but if this is true then that seems a bit less than 99% certainty to me. Elspeth, do you have any idea what study this refers to?
I don't entirely see her point, to be honest, because it was known from the start that mtDNA isn't a unique fingerprint. Since it's inherited, usually unchanged (I think, anyway), from the mother, it's obvious that it isn't going to provide a definitive ID of a particular individual. However, that isn't how the Gill researchers were using it; they were simply trying to show patterns of relatedness, which is an appropriate use of the technique.'

As for the comment about unrelated people sharing the mtDNA, that isn't surprising because some mtDNA types are a lot more common than others, and this has to be taken into account when deciding how significant your results are. The Cambridge Reference Sequence (aka the Anderson sequence, which has nothing to do with Anna Anderson) is quite a common one, which is why it's used as the reference sequence to compare other sequences.

I seriously doubt that mtDNA testing is regarded with scepticism in the scientific community. It may be the case in the lay community where people don't know one type of DNA from another, but mtDNA is quite a powerful tool for tracing family relationships.
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  #1256  
Old 07-15-2008, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by ferrymansdaughter View Post
Well personally I certainly disagree with that. You know perfectly well that I don't think AA was FS but I've never said that any of the scientists "intentionally mishandled", "invented results or bone fragments" (who did say that by the way - anyone?) or indeed that they were "incompetent". What I have said is that - unlike the Pope - I don't believe DNA is infallible (and I am not prepared to accept the opinion of someone you quoted who doesn't even give his full name). I respect your right to have an opinion - even if I don't like the way you voice it sometimes - so why can't you do the same for others without putting words in our mouths?
What do you mean in practical terms here? With a very few exceptions, people have a unique DNA fingerprint (nuclear DNA, that is). Also with a very few exceptions, mtDNA can be used to trace familial relationships. If a scientist comes up with a nuclear DNA match between samples alleged to have been from two people, or an mtDNA match or mismatch between two samples, what reason would you have to dismiss the results other than shoddy work by the scientist or deliberate attempts to mislead?
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  #1257  
Old 07-15-2008, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Michael HR View Post
It seemed to me, without going through all the threads again, that in the main it was the poster Chat-Noir that was calling people liars IMHO. He often states Gillard and the Baroness as liars in relation to AA etc.
From Botkin's book:

"But to quote all the instances in which M. Gilliard had stated deliberate untruths, or availed himself of retouched photographs and other faked or planted evidence, would require the writing of a whole book."
So, as you can see, I am not the only one. And if you have read my posts, you will also see that I have backed up my accusations against Gilliard. Now I would like you to find the post where I call the Baroness a liar.

Quote:
While I am new here I was surprised at the tone Chat_Noir takes to others who post valid views for discussion but if they do not agree with his they are shot down. A was F seem to be at the receaving end of this more than most. She puts forward a view that is supported by evidence in the form of DNA etc.
And what do you expect me to do in a discussion? Just sit back and say "Oh, how right you are!" Honestly.........

Quote:
If people are long dead they can be called liars if needed as they cannot start a court action. Those alive I agree could and we should not without good evidence suggest. this Authors would normally be mistaken rather than issuing a lie knowingly in their works.
Don't worry, Gilliard had to confess in the Hamburg court that he had been telling, eh, untruths. Why do you think he burned his papers?

Quote:
The AA debate is a valid debate in that from the DNA we see that she was not AN and therefore that leads to only one valid view point. As to those who supported her we can debate their reasons why they did so as some must have know she was not who she stated she was, Such as Botkin who had known the real AN. This would seem to go for all involved such as Gillard etc as their roles demand an explination from an historical point of view on both sides of the argument although AA not being AN is the winning side now as we all know.
And this would involve reading a few books.

Quote:
It seems to me that the only persons who have a reason to call anyone a liar are those who still try to suggest with a straight face that AA was AN as this would seem to be the only way to get around the strong evidence that she was a Polish factory worker who managed to fool many people over many years and damage and hurt the reputaitons of such people as GD Olga who deserve in light of modern evidence to have their point of view put and their reputations corrected to show that they were correct the entire time.
You mean that Olga was correct when she said: "My heart tells me that the little one is Anastasia"? And, by the way, FS was a German factory worker.

Quote:
The whole AA episode was a lie that has gone on for long enough and with the assistance of the modern day evidence must be argued to show just who AA actually was and who and why others have supported her even to this day and age, including their possible reasons why.
As I said before, this would involve actually reading up on the matter.
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  #1258  
Old 07-15-2008, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Elspeth View Post
What do you mean in practical terms here? With a very few exceptions, people have a unique DNA fingerprint (nuclear DNA, that is). Also with a very few exceptions, mtDNA can be used to trace familial relationships. If a scientist comes up with a nuclear DNA match between samples alleged to have been from two people, or an mtDNA match or mismatch between two samples, what reason would you have to dismiss the results other than shoddy work by the scientist or deliberate attempts to mislead?
Well how about the fact that - as you have said above - there are a few exceptions and unrelated people can have the same mTdna profile? I am simply saying that there is a possibility - however slight it may be - that the results are not 100% and since it doesn't square in my mind with a lot of the historical testimony, that bothers me.
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  #1259  
Old 07-15-2008, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ferrymansdaughter View Post
Incidentally, I believe it was Felix Yussopuv (Chat will be able to confirm this or correct me) who when shown a picture of AA's hands thought that it was a picture of Tsarina's hands.
This is correct according to Botkin. I do have the photo in Botkin's book, but no scanner, so I cannot post it here.
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  #1260  
Old 07-15-2008, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ferrymansdaughter View Post
Well how about the fact that - as you have said above - there are a few exceptions and unrelated people can have the same mTdna profile?
This is, unless the scientists concerned are ignorant or dishonest or are working with something so outdated that newer discoveries have cast doubt on the results, taken into account when the results are reported. This is why an mtDNA match isn't given the same weight as a DNA fingerprint match, and why the Gill-Stoneking paper reported that there was still a finite possibility on the basis of just the DNA that Anna Anderson wasn't Franziska Schankowska. However, the mtDNA mismatches have ruled out the possibility of her being related to Tsarina Alexandra unless you fall back on shoddy or fraudulent work. Since Dr Stoneking told me a few months ago that the results show that Anna wasn't Anastasia and since Dr Ginther told someone else a couple of years ago that the Gill-Stoneking results are generally believable, I think we can probably rule out the possibility of the results being invalidated by developments in the techniques since 1994. That leaves incomptence and dishonesty as the only possibilities.

Quote:
I am simply saying that there is a possibility - however slight it may be - that the results are not 100% and since it doesn't square in my mind with a lot of the historical testimony, that bothers me.
The results are as reported. Unless you want to invoke the spectre of incompetent or dishonest scientists or some massive and concerted and very well concealed tampering exercise by third parties, Anna Anderson isn't Grand Duchess Anastasia.
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