Succession and Membership Issues

[Prisma]

Order of Imperial succession not likely to change - The Japan News

[...]

The government believes that if discussions on the issue of a female emperor or a female-line emperor lead to a review of the order of succession, the Imperial system could be shaken.

The government will set up a panel of experts in the autumn to discuss the issue.

[...]

According to government sources, discussions on the stable succession of the Imperial throne will proceed in two stages. First, the panel will make clear that the three male-line male members will succeed to the throne according to the current order of succession. Then the panel will discuss specific measures for stable succession and measures to maintain the number of Imperial family members.

Urg Why even have the first "discussion"? It's not truly a discussion anyway. Just skip to the second.

Averting a Crisis: How to Preserve Japan's Imperial System of Male Lineage | JAPAN Forward

[...]

Preventing Extinction of the Imperial Line

One ray of hope lies in the possible restoration of former imperial branch families that were divested of their imperial status on orders from the general headquarters of the occupation forces after the end of World War II. There are males with the imperial Y chromosome among the members of those branch families.

[...]

At a minimum, the return of branch family males with the imperial Y chromosome should be facilitated to allow continuation of the imperial line. This should happen even if it is practically difficult to return former branch families to imperial status en masse.

[...]

Many of the ex-Imperial branches are already extinct or at risk of extinction. The ex-branches that are currently safe could face the same "no male heir" problem anyway.

 

[Muhler]

That is if they even wish to be restored to "imperial status". And how about the public, will they accept someone who is suddenly coming in from the cold as the next heir?
That I think is more eroding for the Imperial Family and their status than the - heaven help us - a female heir!

It's a desperate rearguard action by the ultra-conservatives. Sometimes their fear for women, because that's what it is, is downright comical.

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

This is all just theoretic, as Mr Abe secured a new term as Prime Minister last week, being victorious once again in the General Elections.

 

[Prisma]

Imperial succession is not high priority for the people. Over 50% didn't even vote.

More than 50% of voters abstain from voting in Upper House poll: The Asahi Shimbun

[...]

“Even if I vote, nothing will change,” said Hikasa, 47, who was walking near Shinbashi Station in Tokyo's Minato Ward.

[...]

Turnout was the second lowest of Japan’s postwar Upper House elections, 48.8 percent, meaning more than half of voters did not go to the polls.

[...]

A 52-year-old company employee who lives in Funabashi, Chiba Prefecture, said he was worried about Japan's falling population and whether the county's pension system will be able to support him when he retires.

But despite expressing displeasure with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration, he wasn't moved to vote for an opposition party or cast a ballot at all.

[...]

A 66-year-old unemployed resident of Kamakura, Kanagawa Prefecture, said he saw no reason to vote.

“The election was only conducted because it was time to hold one," he said. "I can't figure out what it was for."

[...]

 

[Muhler]

Pretty worrying. If people stop voting or even caring, only the extremists will benefit.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Imperial succession is not high priority for the people. Over 50% didn't even vote.

More than 50% of voters abstain from voting in Upper House poll: The Asahi Shimbun

Thank your making this essential point. A number of people in the West seem to have made the wrong assumption that the majority of Japanese people view male-only succession as important because of the ubiquity of elected officials with those views. As a matter of fact, most voters would accept female succession but cannot be expected to prioritize it over the economy, stable government, etc.

Order of Imperial succession not likely to change - The Japan News

Urg Why even have the first "discussion"? It's not truly a discussion anyway. Just skip to the second.

Averting a Crisis: How to Preserve Japan's Imperial System of Male Lineage | JAPAN Forward

Many of the ex-Imperial branches are already extinct or at risk of extinction. The ex-branches that are currently safe could face the same "no male heir" problem anyway.

I agree with you on both counts. The true "ray of hope" for the ultra-traditionalists lies in the invention of fertility treatments and sex selection methods, and in pressuring male heirs and their wives to utilize them if required for the sake of maintaining the male line.



Thank you for posting the Japan Forward article, which states the feelings and position of the ultratraditionalists very well.

Why were there so many female emperors in those times?

According to one theory, it had something to do with the fact that the blood lines of many powerful clans, such as Soga and Fujiwara, had flown into the imperial family. Because of power struggles among the influential clans, a decision couldn’t be reached on who should be the next-generation emperor in the male line. Female emperors therefore emerged in the capacity of relay successors, reigning until the next male emperor could be chosen, or so the theory goes.

In addition, there were cases in those days in which an emperor succumbed at a young age. In some such cases a female emperor served as a relay successor when the crown prince — the next in line to the imperial throne — was a child, or a suitable successor could not be identified immediately.

It is interesting that the two sides of the succession issue have such disparate theories on the factors in choosing female emperors during the sixth and seventh centuries. Read an alternative opinion here:

http://www.theroyalforums.com/forums/f68/succession-and-membership-issues-4108-47.html#post1905377

Noteworthy in this connection is the hard fact that, although there did exist female emperors, there never existed even a single emperor who descended from the female imperial line.

While there were cases in which females ascended the throne as relay successors, the imperial lineage has been inherited through the male line on a continuous basis. There was no instance of the sex chromosome of Y — which is passed on from the father only to his sons — having been discontinued or altered to another chromosome.

That is right, of course, but it is also noteworthy all of the female emperors who had issue passed on the throne to their children or grandchildren, the imperial Y chromosome being maintained in the sons as their parents were closely related.

This is all just theoretic, as Mr Abe secured a new term as Prime Minister last week, being victorious once again in the General Elections.

Mr. Abe theoretically approves of changing the succession law to restore ex-imperial branches, but he is probably too pragmatic to attempt a divisive change.

He secured his third term last autumn with his victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election. Last week's elections concerned seats in the Upper House only, and there was no prospect of the LDP losing its majority there. The question is whether there will be another change in LDP party rules before 2021 to allow him a fourth term.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...uJ0SGuQi1nvmm-cpoiYosRg31pVLnh68#.XUA1JugzYuW

Panel planned to discuss shrinking royal family, possible female emperor

 

[Mbruno]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...uJ0SGuQi1nvmm-cpoiYosRg31pVLnh68#.XUA1JugzYuW

Panel planned to discuss shrinking royal family, possible female emperor

Couldn't semi-Salic succession be a pragmatic first step before introducing full male-preference cognatic primogeniture ?

 

[Tilia C.]

Imo, it would be a start to allow married princesses to remain members of the Imperial House, and to continue their work as Imperial Princesses. The decision, if they or their children should be in the line of succession or not, could be easily delayed, according to whether Hisahito will have sons or not. But right now, it must be ensured that the young princesses can get married and have a family of their own, while at the same time they will be there to support Hisahito when his time comes to take over the throne. He will need a few family members of his own generation to share the burden of his position. Right now, it looks like his sisters can't get married, because the Imperial House needs them in their workforce. Now, imho, that's really tough on them.

 

[Furienna]

That is if they even wish to be restored to "imperial status". And how about the public, will they accept someone who is suddenly coming in from the cold as the next heir?
That I think is more eroding for the Imperial Family and their status than the - heaven help us - a female heir!

As I see it, the heir would be expected to take on princely duties, and get known by the people, before he could take the throne. I don't believe that he would go frim being a private citizen one day, to be an emperor the next day.

It's a desperate rearguard action by the ultra-conservatives. Sometimes their fear for women, because that's what it is, is downright comical.

Why would they fear women? It is only that some people in Japan are very traditional, so they will find the male-only succession important.

 

[Muhler]

Well, they are only a tragedy away from ending up in that situation. So there may not even be time for the public to get acquainted with a completely new heir.

I believe the efforts of ultra-conservatives to curb women, not only in Japan but worldwide, is deep down based in a fear of being "usurped" by women.

To paraphrase a quote from Mississippi Burning: "If you ain't more than a woman, then what are you?"

 

[Furienna]

Well, they are only a tragedy away from ending up in that situation. So there may not even be time for the public to get acquainted with a completely new heir.

I agree. They must find a third heir soon, just to make sure that an heir exists and has the right training and public support.

I believe the efforts of ultra-conservatives to curb women, not only in Japan but worldwide, is deep down based in a fear of being "usurped" by women.

Well, I'm a bit more optimistic than that.

 

[Ista]

I agree. They must find a third heir soon, just to make sure that an heir exists and has the right training and public support.


Well, I'm a bit more optimistic than that.

There isn't a third heir to find according to the current rules, and there won't be one unless Hisahito grows up, finds a woman who is willing to put up with a highly restricted life governed by the IHA, and starts popping out male heirs. I have my doubts about both of those last two points considering both Michiko and Masako's experiences within the Imperial family.

And there's not much doubt that in Japan at least, there is a definite level of discomfort among certain sectors of the population with the increasing level of autonomy women have acquired by working outside the home, so I think Muhler has a point.

 

[Furienna]

There isn't a third heir to find according to the current rules, and there won't be one unless Hisahito grows up, finds a woman who is willing to put up with a highly restricted life governed by the IHA, and starts popping out male heirs. I have my doubts about both of those last two points considering both Michiko and Masako's experiences within the Imperial family.

And there's not much doubt that in Japan at least, there is a definite level of discomfort among certain sectors of the population with the increasing level of autonomy women have acquired by working outside the home, so I think Muhler has a point.

I know, and what I meant was that the rules must be changed. They have to put the princesses in the line of succession, or introduce a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir.

 

[theroyalfly]

I know, and what I meant was that the rules must be changed. They have to put the princesses in the line of succession, or introduce a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir.

There's no use to find a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir because if there is (using the current succession laws) they would have found one.

It's either they consider married princesses as a legit household and allow women in the succession or they put back the Kazoku.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

I know, and what I meant was that the rules must be changed. They have to put the princesses in the line of succession, or introduce a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir.

That is the main reason why the rules have not been changed: There is no universal consensus among voters or political leaders on which change should be adopted, and so the safest course for any politician is to remain passive and offend nobody.

There's no use to find a male-line relative with imperial heritage as the third heir because if there is (using the current succession laws) they would have found one.

It's either they consider married princesses as a legit household and allow women in the succession or they put back the Kazoku.

Furienna is proposing to change the current laws, which would also be necessary if married princesses were to be allowed to form imperial households or be in the line of succession. The nobility (Kazoku) did not have a place in the imperial succession, and its restoration hasn't been considered.

 

[theroyalfly]

Furienna is proposing to change the current succession laws, which would also be necessary if married princesses were to be allowed to form imperial households or be in the line of succession. The nobility (Kazoku) did not have a place in the imperial succession, and its restoration hasn't been considered.

Considering married princesses' to form imperial households or to be in line of succession is the most plausible answer.

I did not say the Kazoku was in line of imperial succession but some of these families lineage are from the imperial line of Emperors and Imperial Princes. Just an option.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Considering married princesses' to form imperial households or to be in line of succession is the most plausible answer.

I did not say the Kazoku was in line of imperial succession but some of these families lineage are from the imperial line of Emperors and Imperial Princes. Just an option.

I see your meaning now. For whatever reason, when the option is raised in Japan, the proposal always relates to families from the lines which remained royal until 1947. I suppose they believe the public would be more welcoming to someone with a fairly recent imperial lineage.

On a side note, I have edited my post as changes to the law would be necessary even to allow princesses to form households without being in the line of succession.

 

[Prisma]

Urg... I'm all happy about the enthronement and then I see THIS article (published on October 23)

Japan lawmakers eye restoration of ex-imperial members for succession - Kyodo News

A conservative group within Japan's major ruling party on Wednesday finalized proposals to allow men from now-abolished collateral branches of the imperial family to rejoin it, as part of measures to ensure stable succession.

The proposals, to be submitted to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, were crafted as the number of successors to the Chrysanthemum Throne continues to dwindle.

[...]

To sustain the imperial family, the group within the Liberal Democratic Party came up with ideas such as having unmarried male members of the former branches join the imperial family through adoption or marriage, if they want to. The group has suggested the creation of a law to enable this as an emergency measure, instead of revising the Imperial House Law.

[...]

Well, who wants to return? How will this "potential successor" be vetted? What's the adoption process? Who exactly adopts him? Naruhito? Akishino? The IHA as a group?

If by marriage... well, forced marriage is against the law. Which princess is he willing to marry or vice versa?

If no one wants to return, then the National Diet wasted everyone's time and effort because the succession issue continues...

ETA: Or maybe the conservatives have found a willing candidate and the "if" doesn't mean anything?

 

[Muhler]

An act of desperation.

And even if they have found someone, how about the public opinion?

 

[Tilia C.]

If things go well, and Hisahito lives up to a normal life span, they will have more than half a century to build up the public profile of the new candidate. Good PR can do wonders to that. Interestingly, the new candidate does not have much of a chance to become the Emperor himself, as Hisahito is still the heir and is still so very young. It's more likely that a son or grandson from the new line will be the one to inherit... unless Hisahito will have a son (or several?) himself. The new contender must accept that his, or his offspring's succession is far from certain.

To my knowledge, sense of duty is still very, very strong in the Japanese culture. So I believe that they could find a candidate who is willing to shoulder the burden of becoming a member of the Imperial Family, and thus do his duty to the country.

As for marriage: I hope that they don't bully one of the Princesses into accepting an arranged marriage. They can't force them, but those ultra-conservative men in the IHA might think that they can 'persuade' one of them to anyways.

 

[JR76]

Regarding arranged marriages being outdated let's not forget that Princess Takamado has been open with her setting up at least on of her daughters with a suitable young man so the concept is apparently not dead and buried within the Imperial family.

 

[Ista]

Urg... I'm all happy about the enthronement and then I see THIS article (published on October 23)

Japan lawmakers eye restoration of ex-imperial members for succession - Kyodo News

Well, who wants to return? How will this "potential successor" be vetted? What's the adoption process? Who exactly adopts him? Naruhito? Akishino? The IHA as a group?

If by marriage... well, forced marriage is against the law. Which princess is he willing to marry or vice versa?

If no one wants to return, then the National Diet wasted everyone's time and effort because the succession issue continues...

ETA: Or maybe the conservatives have found a willing candidate and the "if" doesn't mean anything?

This is the first thing that comes to my mind, but I also wonder a bit about the type of pressure that might be directed towards the unmarried princesses if a measure like this were passed into law.

 

[victor1319]

As for marriage: I hope that they don't bully one of the Princesses into accepting an arranged marriage. They can't force them, but those ultra-conservative men in the IHA might think that they can 'persuade' one of them to anyways.

Hmm, but please don't forget, that it takes (at least) two to marry. For the case of an arranged marriage the future husband will be have been somehow "persuaded" too. Poor chap...

 

[Hans-Rickard]

Urg... I'm all happy about the enthronement and then I see THIS article (published on October 23)

Japan lawmakers eye restoration of ex-imperial members for succession - Kyodo News

Well, who wants to return? How will this "potential successor" be vetted? What's the adoption process? Who exactly adopts him? Naruhito? Akishino? The IHA as a group?

If by marriage... well, forced marriage is against the law. Which princess is he willing to marry or vice versa?

If no one wants to return, then the National Diet wasted everyone's time and effort because the succession issue continues...

ETA: Or maybe the conservatives have found a willing candidate and the "if" doesn't mean anything?

Through adoption or marriage ? I would have got their point (though not necessarily agreed) had they meant just re-instating living male line members of the collateral branches as nr 4, 5, 6 etc in the line of sucession...

But through adoption or marriage ? How would that take place ? Who would want to adopt them ? Neither The Emperor, nor the Crown Prince comes across as men who would do that... Then there is their uncle Masahito Prince Hitachi but he is 83 years old and in bad health...

Through marriage makes it sound like they are open for the idea to pressure them and Princess Aiko, Mako, Kako and the other unmarried Princess'es into arranged marriages.... But remember that they more or less bullied Masako (and her family) in to accept Naruhito's proposal so i wouldn't be surprised...

 

[Muhler]

Perhaps we should try and reverse things.
So I'll try be the Devil's Advocate and become a Japanese ultra conservative nationalists.

- And I love this idea!
It makes perfect sense and it's a very satisfactory solution to the problem with the lack of males within the Imperial Family.

Adopting a suitable male, perhaps a young teenager, from another branch is a neat solution.
It's merely a formal process, in which he will still have his biological parents, but he will be brought up and educated within the Imperial Household enabling him to perform his duties when he becomes an adult.
It will be an honor for him and his biological family. To un-selflessly dedicating his life to the Emperor, to Japan, to the Japanese people, to his family. (You should perhaps look up the concept of "giri".)
Adopting a suitable heir is a time-honored thing and which has worked well in other great cultures.

Let us be honest. Women are by nature not the best suited to be heads of a nation, certainly not an ancient nation with a rich culture and old traditions as ours.
You can't argue with biology. Women give birth, it is their natural instinct to nurture and care for their children. To keep the family together, to ensure a stable home with a good harmony for the family. In that respect the woman is crucial.
There is not demeaning or oppressive in that. I revere and honor my wife! Had it not been for her, I and our family, would live a much less happy life. And for that I love her.

A female empress is as such not, it cannot, be the best solution.
A female head of state cannot focus herself in the same way in her official duties, while thinking about her young children at home. That is the female caring instinct, which cannot and should not be suppressed.
A male emperor can focus much more on his duties, knowing full well, that his children and home is cared for by a devoted wife and mother.

A male emperor has other advantages. A male emperor will not be divisive in the same way than a female. Especially in regards to the many traditionalists in this country. I being one.
A male emperor, will be default, command more respect abroad when visiting foreign countries that have a more patriarchal culture.
A male emperor doesn't suffer from the effects of pregnancies and the aftermath of giving birth, and as such can devote himself 365 days a year to his duties.
There are also certain things a female empress cannot carry out in regards to Shinto.

Can he not find a suitable partner in life on his own accord, an arranged setup is very much a desirable option. It has after all worked admirably for most of the time of human civilization.
They will grow to love and honor each other. A foundation that is often much stronger once the tenuous process of falling in love has subsided.
Marrying purely for love is after all a very recent concept - and just look at the divorce statistics...

 

[SLV]

I think that for the Japanese Imperial Court, this reasoning is, unfortunately, very accurate.

 

[Tilia C.]

Regarding arranged marriages being outdated let's not forget that Princess Takamado has been open with her setting up at least on of her daughters with a suitable young man so the concept is apparently not dead and buried within the Imperial family.

Yes, putting young people next to each other at the dinner table and keeping finger's crossed that they get on well is still a rather common thing in certain circles. It happens often enough that both parties agree to an arranged marriage because they are not averse to each other and see other advantages in the match. But I hope that the times of forced marriage, where one of the parties (usually the bride) has to enter a marriage against their will, are history in Japan. I guess that from the outside it is difficult to assess how much pressure the IHA would put on the Princesses.

 

[Prisma]

Poll: Public supports female ascending throne | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News (published October 21)

An NHK poll shows that over 70 percent of respondents are in favor of a woman ascending to the Imperial throne. It also indicates that public knowledge of the Imperial system is inadequate.

NHK conducted the telephone survey late last month.
More than 1,500 people responded.

[...]

Asked if changes in the Imperial system are needed to ensure the stability of succession, 54 percent answered "yes" while 31 percent said "no."

[...]

Asked about allowing a woman to become Emperor, 74 percent were in favor, far outnumbering 12 percent who were against.

Support for a female Emperor was particularly strong at 90 percent among those between the ages of 18 and 29.

On whether to allow a child of a female Emperor to ascend to the throne, 71 percent were in favor while 13 percent were against.

But when asked if they know the meaning of that kind of ascension, 42 percent of respondents replied that they do. However, a majority, or 52 percent, said they either don't know or know very little.

[...]

The latest poll has revealed inadequate public literacy about the Imperial system, while discussions are being undertaken about ways to stabilize the Imperial succession.

81% back idea of Japan having female emperor: Kyodo News poll (published October 28)

A whopping 81.9 percent of respondents to a Kyodo News survey over the weekend said they are in favor of the idea of Japan having a female emperor, while 13.5 percent indicated they are opposed.

[...]

Regarding whether to allow heirs of female lineage to ascend the throne, 70.0 percent in the poll supported the idea, while 21.9 percent were against it.

The nationwide telephone poll conducted on Saturday and Sunday, covering 732 randomly selected households with eligible voters as well as 1,282 mobile phone numbers, obtained responses from 505 and 504 people, respectively.

Earlier last week, a conservative group within Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party finalized proposals to allow men from now-abolished collateral branches of the imperial family to rejoin it, as part of measures to ensure stable male-line succession.

The group's ideas include having unmarried male members of the former branches join the imperial family through adoption or marriage, if they want to. It has suggested the creation of a law to enable this as an emergency measure, instead of revising the Imperial House Law, and is against allowing women to remain imperial family members after marriage.

[...]

ETA: Updated Kyodo article

 

[Prisma]

Sankei, the conservative newspaper, outlines the proposal made by 44 LDP members for unmarried males from the ex-Imperial branches to return to Imperial status:
1) adoption by a male Imperial member or as son-in-law of female Imperial member
2) the candidate must be willing to return to Imperial status

It acknowledges marriage "must be based on free will." (What about free will in adoption? Could Prince Hitachi be forced to adopt an heir?)

According to the proposal, the ex-Imperial branches have 7 unmarried males: 5 in their teens and 2 in their early 20s.