Succession and Membership Issues

[Ista]

I read this and snorted. It would be nice if it were true, and there was going to be a substantive discussion followed by a realistic action plan, but I think this is posturing on the part of the government. I would so love to be proven wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.

A senior agency official explained, "Since the new emperor will be younger, we decided to pass the baton with duties as they currently are." And it's good that Naruhito has been forewarned: he's younger, so he's going to be loaded up with duties until he wears out. Good to know.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Japan to start discussions soon on imperial succession system - The Mainichi

No progress on debate over reducing Imperial Family's burdens as succession nears - The Mainichi

[...]

"There is no definition for an emperor's public duties aside from acts in matters of state," Isao Tokoro, an expert on the history of the Imperial System and a professor emeritus at Kyoto Sangyo University said. "There is a need to think of a new way of doing things, using the upcoming abdication and ensuing succession as an opportunity to do so." But there are no signs that such discussion is taking place. The Imperial Household Agency's review of the emperor's public duties led to no fundamental changes. A senior agency official explained, "Since the new emperor will be younger, we decided to pass the baton with duties as they currently are."

Crown Prince Naruhito has expressed his enthusiasm for pursuing what is required of the Imperial Family "in accordance with the changing times." At a press conference last year, he said that "depending on changes in society, what society seeks from the Imperial Family will change. It is important that we respond to that." [...]

Some criticize that the range of activities carried out by the Imperial Family is expanding as the number of Imperial Family members dwindles. Hideya Kawanishi, an associate professor of modern and contemporary Japanese history at Nagoya University, says there is a need for a nationwide discussion on the issue. "The bar has been lowered for the public to seek certain things from the Imperial Family. We can't deny that the Imperial Family's desire to stay by the side of the people has made them busier. Now is the time to scrap the current way of doing things and build a new one," he suggested.

It doesn't surprise me that the imperial family is remaining adamant on "staying by the side of the people" by maintaining its wide range of activities over the objections of traditionalists.

Firstly, the traditionalists are still unable to take control of the imperial family. Technically, I suppose Prime Minister Abe has the authority to force the royals to give up their interactions with the public, but that would likely be unpopular with the public, and he has greater policy priorities on which he needs to expend his political capital.

Secondly, all the recent celebrations commemorating emperor Akihito's reign will have given the imperial family the message that the people are grateful to them for standing with them and sharing their joys and sorrows.

Thirdly, as mentioned in the article, Crown Prince Naruhito has indeed talked about the necessity of rethinking royal duties with the times, but his planned "new way" appears to be more expansive, not more restrictive, than his father's. (Here is an interesting old post in regards to this: A German book about Crown Princess Masako)

Hmmm, forgive me for being skeptical. The Abe government has never struck me as a champion of equal rights - on the contrary.
So wonder if this is merely for show?

Abe said (see article) "Because this is an extremely important issue related to the foundation of the nation, we have to give careful consideration to the matter", which is the same line he has been using for the last seven years. He needs only to use it for another 25 years or thereabouts, until Aiko has passed childbearing age ...

 

[Prisma]

I agree with you all. I have low/zero expectations the discussions will lead anywhere. However, it'll be mildly interesting to see how similar or different the Abe government's report will be to the Koizumi government's report on female/stable succession.

While looking up info on the Higashikuni family after Nobuhiko Higashikuni's death on March 20th, I learned the Kitashirakawa branch is extinct.

Michihisa Kitashirakawa died on October 20, 2018 at age 81. He had 3 daughters.
Japan wikipedia - Kitashirakawa Michihisa

Slim options for conservatives wishing to restore an ex-Imperial branch.

Ex-Imperial branches with 2 generations of male descendants: Kaya, Higashikuni, and Takeda

At risk ex-Imperial branches...
Fushimi: current head Hiroaki (born 1932) has 3 daughters
Kuni: current head Kuniaki has 2 sons (born 1959 and 1961) but no grandsons
Asaka: current head Tomohiko has a child (born 1972) who is unmarried

Extinct: Nashimoto, Yamashina, Kitashirakawa, Higashifushimi, Kan'in

Recent Takeda family news: Tsunekazu Takeda (age 71) resigned as president of the Japanese Olympic Committee as he's under investigation for alleged bribery in Tokyo's successful 2020 Olympics bid. I saw Western media mention he's Emperor Akihito's second cousin whereas Japanese media omitted that connection.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

I agree with you all. I have low/zero expectations the discussions will lead anywhere. However, it'll be mildly interesting to see how similar or different the Abe government's report will be to the Koizumi government's report on female/stable succession.

Provided that there will be a report... I envision Abe delaying or extending the "discussions" until he leaves office, at which point they can be conveniently put on ice by his hand-picked successor. But I agree, it seems highly unlikely that Abe would allow the gender equal model from the Koizumi government's report to be discussed on his watch.

While looking up info on the Higashikuni family after Nobuhiko Higashikuni's death on March 20th, I learned the Kitashirakawa branch is extinct.

Michihisa Kitashirakawa died on October 20, 2018 at age 81. He had 3 daughters.
Japan wikipedia - Kitashirakawa Michihisa

Slim options for conservatives wishing to restore an ex-Imperial branch.

Ex-Imperial branches with 2 generations of male descendants: Kaya, Higashikuni, and Takeda

At risk ex-Imperial branches...
Fushimi: current head Hiroaki (born 1932) has 3 daughters
Kuni: current head Kuniaki has 2 sons (born 1959 and 1961) but no grandsons
Asaka: current head Tomohiko has a child (born 1972) who is unmarried

Extinct: Nashimoto, Yamashina, Kitashirakawa, Higashifushimi, Kan'in

Recent Takeda family news: Tsunekazu Takeda (age 71) resigned as president of the Japanese Olympic Committee as he's under investigation for alleged bribery in Tokyo's successful 2020 Olympics bid. I saw Western media mention he's Emperor Akihito's second cousin whereas Japanese media omitted that connection.

Thank you for finding this and for pointing out Mr. Takeda's close relation to the emperor. I wonder why Japanese reports omitted it. Were they under the impression that it was commonly known already, or acting out of "respect" for the imperial family?

Even though the conservatives' options are slim, if one applies the same rules to the Takeda family as the Komuro family, then following the allegations about Tsunekazu it ought to be forbidden to elevate any members of the Takeda family to royal status, correct?



It really is incumbent on the imperial family to confront reality and be more flexible on finding a path forward. I'm pleased that the IHA is brainstorming reforms to the schedule of duties, according to the Japan Times in December.

With little prospects for an amendment, the family and the Imperial Household Agency are trying to devise ways within the current legal framework to tackle the mounting burden of having individual royals perform public duties.

Those duties range from visits to disaster-hit areas, trips to mourn the war dead to participation in social, cultural and sports events. In addition, the Emperor is required to carry out state acts such as the promulgation of laws and convocations of the Diet.

Imperial Household Agency officials and experts say some ceremonies could be attended by a single member rather than a couple, and events with similar themes could be consolidated, although state acts and some official activities cannot be curtailed due to constitutional requirement and in view of fairness.

Ayako Moriya, who recently left the Imperial family, retains honorary titles at two organizations even after her marriage, in the first such case for female members who have married commoners.​

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...japans-dwindling-imperial-line-clouds-future/

Yamashita says one solution would be to share public duties with members of 11 collateral branches that left the Imperial family in 1947.

“If they are delegated to perform duties related to the Imperial household and such practices continue for a long time, the public may start accepting their return to the Imperial family, and ultimately could view male members as potential heirs of the throne,” he said.

Similar arguments have been made by Abe and his supporters […]​

However, I find the suggestions of Mr. Yamashita/Abe's supporters underwhelming. Delegation of royal duties to private citizens would be a clear curtailment of Parliament's prerogative to determine who is a member of the royal family and who is not. If delegation were deemed allowable then it would be more sensible to delegate to the experienced ex-princesses instead of strangers who would be novices at public duties.

 

[Prisma]

Provided that there will be a report... I envision Abe delaying or extending the "discussions" until he leaves office, at which point they can be conveniently put on ice by his hand-picked successor. But I agree, it seems highly unlikely that Abe would allow the gender equal model from the Koizumi government's report to be discussed on his watch.

Very true... and Japan's government is certainly well-versed in discussing issues forever. They held meetings for 7 years (1997-2004) on female succession before official discussions in 2005 under Koizumi's administration.

Secret meetings were behind Japan's 2005 move to allow female emperor: Kyodo News+

The government secretly considered the option of allowing females to ascend Japan's imperial throne from 1997, before officially starting a debate on the issue under a panel of experts in 2005, internal documents and other sources showed Thursday.

While the plan was later dropped, the confidential talks helped lay the groundwork for the government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who served between 2001 and 2006, to lean toward revising the Imperial House Law, which allows only male heirs who have emperors on their father's side to reign.

The secret meetings started in 1997 under then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and were attended by members such as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Teijiro Furukawa. At that time, Emperor Akihito had no grandson.

[...]

The meetings continued until 2004 and a document compiled in May that year called on the government to "swiftly start considering" changing the law to allow females and their descendants to ascend the throne.

Koizumi launched an advisory panel on the issue, which wrapped up its nearly one year of discussions in 2005 by proposing that female monarchs be allowed, in a bid to avoid an expected succession crisis for the world's oldest hereditary monarchy.

Koizumi was eager to pursue the proposal, but the plan fizzled out following the birth in 2006 of Prince Hisahito [...]

Thank you for finding this and for pointing out Mr. Takeda's close relation to the emperor. I wonder why Japanese reports omitted it. Were they under the impression that it was commonly known already, or acting out of "respect" for the imperial family?

I suspect the latter, the IHA is quite powerful and no media would risk losing access by embarrassing the royal family about their demoted relations. Despite that power, I find the IHA's handling of controversies / scandals quite poor. Aiko's bullying in elementary school / absences, Aiko's minor health updates (do we really need to know she had a fever/cold and missed a few days of school?), any royals' minor health status (Princess Yoko hurting her knee after an anemia episode), and most recently Kei Komuro. I'd love for the IHA to join social media but they'd probably make a mess of it.

Even though the conservatives' options are slim, if one applies the same rules to the Takeda family as the Komuro family, then following the allegations about Tsunekazu it ought to be forbidden to elevate any members of the Takeda family to royal status, correct?

Indeed. Also, Tsunekazu was at fault in a 1974 car accident that killed a 22-year-old woman. He was not prosecuted, instead compensating the victim's family.

It really is incumbent on the imperial family to confront reality and be more flexible on finding a path forward. I'm pleased that the IHA is brainstorming reforms to the schedule of duties, according to the Japan Times in December.

I wish solo activities for Imperial women were considered years ago, especially for Masako. Imagine if she had been allowed patronages or something.

However, I find the suggestions of Mr. Yamashita/Abe's supporters underwhelming. Delegation of royal duties to private citizens would be a clear curtailment of Parliament's prerogative to determine who is a member of the royal family and who is not. If delegation were deemed allowable then it would be more sensible to delegate to the experienced ex-princesses instead of strangers who would be novices at public duties.

It's exhausting how far the conservatives will go...

 

[Prisma]

Record-high 76% say they are familiar with the imperial family: The Asahi Shimbun

[...]

The survey was conducted nationwide by mail from March to April ahead of the enthronement of a new emperor on May 1. Of 3,000 people who received the mail, 2,043, or 68 percent, gave valid responses.

[...]

By sex, 73 percent of men and 79 percent of women replied in the latest survey that they were familiar with the imperial family. Among women in their 40s and higher age groups, the answer exceeded 80 percent. In particular, women in their 50s, the same age group as Masako, marked the highest rate of 84 percent.

By age group, 60 percent of respondents aged 18 to 29 years old said they were familiar with the imperial family. On the other hand, corresponding figures among those in their 50s, 60s and the age group of 70 and older were 81 percent, 80 percent and 79 percent, respectively.

[...]

Respondents were also asked whether they support female emperors and “jokei-tenno,” or children who were born between female emperors and non-imperial family men and later became emperors.

Seventy-six percent and 74 percent of respondents support allowing female emperors and jokei-tenno, respectively.

The respondents were also asked whether female members of the imperial family should be allowed to establish “miyake” branch families after marriage so that they can remain in the imperial family.

Fifty percent supported the idea, while 37 percent opposed it.

Talks on Imperial succession rules may be delayed until next fall or spring | The Japan Times

Some government officials are calling for deferring discussions on stable Imperial succession until the events related to Emperor Akihito’s abdication and Crown Prince Naruhito’s enthronement are over in spring 2020, sources said Tuesday.

[...]

If the government postpones the discussions, it may face criticism from opposition parties. But because conservatives — the main supporters of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — oppose changing the rules, succession talks are highly likely to be fractious, observers say.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party also hopes to refrain from holding discussions on the matter, which could divide its members, ahead of this summer’s elections for the House of Councilors, sources said.

[...]

A resolution attached to the special law to enable the Emperor’s abdication stipulates that the government should start discussions on stable Imperial succession soon after the law takes effect on April 30, when the Emperor will step down, and promptly report the results to the Diet.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has said he wants the government to launch the discussions not long after the enthronement, scheduled for May 1. (I think the article meant May 1 ascension or October 22 enthronement)

[...]

The abdication- and enthronement-related state events [...] end with the Rikkoshi no Rei ceremony on April 19, 2020, proclaiming Prince Akishino [...] as first in line to the throne.

A government source said, “We don’t want discussions on stable Imperial succession to heat up” and the talks “will be kicked off after the Rikkoshi no Rei ceremony.”

The speaker of the House of Representatives, Tadamori Oshima, said in a speech on Monday that he wants the government to initiate the talks after related ceremonies end this fall.

One government official said it would be difficult for the government to win public acceptance for postponing the discussions for a year.

Given this, the government is expected to seek the best timing for such talks while paying close attention to public opinion, observers said.

Hmph. Conservatives solidifying Prince Akishino as Crown Prince before discussions and will probably pick a "best time" when interest is low.

 

[Muhler]

That makes sense.

For whatever reasons the Japanese have for voting for the current national-conservative government, female succession is pretty far down the list.
Hence why the government can, shall we say, stall the issue.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Record-high 76% say they are familiar with the imperial family: The Asahi Shimbun


Talks on Imperial succession rules may be delayed until next fall or spring | The Japan Times

Hmph. Conservatives solidifying Prince Akishino as Crown Prince before discussions and will probably pick a "best time" when interest is low.

Good point! As someone also pointed out in Princess Mako's engagement thread, Abe and his allies have demonstrated considerable skill at using their control of the terms of debate to win many of the battles concerning the imperial family: nationalist politics, treating Akihito's abdication as an exception, female succession, female-headed branches, the attacks on Kei Komuro…

Seventy-six percent and 74 percent of respondents support allowing female emperors and jokei-tenno, respectively.

The respondents were also asked whether female members of the imperial family should be allowed to establish “miyake” branch families after marriage so that they can remain in the imperial family.

Fifty percent supported the idea, while 37 percent opposed it.

I would like them to have investigated the (at least) 24% of people who support female-line emperors but don't wish to allow female-headed branches.

Does the concept of a future emperor being brought up as a commoner appeal to them? I imagine that would be satisfying to Abe's ears, since it would facilitate his desire to elevate commoners from former collateral branch families into the imperial family.

Or are the 24% prepared to allow a branch headed by a future empress, but not by the other princesses of the imperial family? That seems to me to be a risky strategy. Imagine, for instance, that Hisahito had never existed and as a consequence Aiko had become crown princess. If the other princesses were prohibited from remaining in the imperial family after marriage, what would they plan to do if Crown Princess Aiko and her husband were unable to have children? By the point that they discovered their infertility, it is likely that Mako and Kako, both of whom are older than Aiko, would have married and become commoners.

 

[Prisma]

Possible reasons for the disconnect between higher support for female emperor and lower support for female-led branches:
- More imperial branches is daunting. The survey didn't specify who could stay or how many generations. Financially supporting all the male and female-led imperial branches and later their children's branches (no matter how distant from the current emperor) gets expensive.

- Influence of Japan's strict gender roles. Wives join the husband's family registry after marriage. Adult adoption typically happens when a family lacks an suitable heir so a son-in-law joins his wife's family registry.

- Maybe those surveyed are OK with direct inheritance but prefer limitations on branches for siblings or relatives which the survey didn't specify. Outside of princesses leaving the family on marriage, no one has ceded from the Imperial family. The late Prince Tomohito of Mikasa wanted to leave but couldn't.

Japan to consider Imperial succession issue after November: Suga - The Mainichi

[...]

"Our first priority is to dedicate ourselves to successfully hold rituals related to the enthronement including Daijosai," commented Suga on the timing to initiate deliberations on the succession issue.

[...]

Abe previously insisted reinstating male descendants in the male line from houses which left the Imperial Family under the occupation of the General Headquarters of the Allied Forces (GHQ) after World War II. Regarding Abe's opinion, Suga limited himself to say, "We will discuss the matter later. I refrain from commenting."

 

[Muhler]

Hmm, that smells like another poor excuse for keeping women away from the throne.

But that problem has been addressed in other monarchies in various ways, so why not in Japan?
After all most monarchies today have only three or four active couples, the rest are left to create their own careers.

As for gender roles. Well if you marry an active royal, you marry into the royal family, rather than the other way around. - Another poor excuse IMO.

What would they do if there was only Princess Aiko? Sorry, you marry into your husbands family and as such you have to abdicate, and whoops now we have no empress and no monarchy...
Come on!

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Hmm, that smells like another poor excuse for keeping women away from the throne.

But that problem has been addressed in other monarchies in various ways, so why not in Japan?
After all most monarchies today have only three or four active couples, the rest are left to create their own careers.

I see your point about allowing royals to have private careers, but the necessity of being apolitical and commercially neutral is more urgent in Japan in comparison to other monarchies. And even in comparable monarchies in Europe, where the public is more tolerant of royals' gaffes, the commercial interests of various royals generate headlines on a frequent basis, and not always positive ones.

All in all, I consider the Japanese monarchy to be appropriately cautious by requiring family members to choose between being completely in the Imperial Family or completely out of it.

But the problem of too many branches would be easy to manage with the secession system, which is already set down in the Imperial House Law even if it hasn't needed to be used since 1947.

Possible reasons for the disconnect between higher support for female emperor and lower support for female-led branches:
- More imperial branches is daunting. The survey didn't specify who could stay or how many generations. Financially supporting all the male and female-led imperial branches and later their children's branches (no matter how distant from the current emperor) gets expensive.

- Influence of Japan's strict gender roles. Wives join the husband's family registry after marriage. Adult adoption typically happens when a family lacks an suitable heir so a son-in-law joins his wife's family registry.

- Maybe those surveyed are OK with direct inheritance but prefer limitations on branches for siblings or relatives which the survey didn't specify. Outside of princesses leaving the family on marriage, no one has ceded from the Imperial family. The late Prince Tomohito of Mikasa wanted to leave but couldn't.

Japan to consider Imperial succession issue after November: Suga - The Mainichi

As for gender roles. Well if you marry an active royal, you marry into the royal family, rather than the other way around. - Another poor excuse IMO.

What would they do if there was only Princess Aiko? Sorry, you marry into your husbands family and as such you have to abdicate, and whoops now we have no empress and no monarchy...
Come on!

That is what I am curious to know. The possible explanation Prisma provided (they would prefer to consider a reigning empress a special exception while other princesses must comply with gender roles, but the option was not available in the survey) is very plausible, but I wonder if there are individuals who would prefer an Empress Aiko to remain single or to abdicate when she marries.

 

[Muhler]

The question of being politically neutral also applies in other monarchies.

Surplus royals quietly fade out - some even during their own lifetime. See Madeleine in Sweden or perhaps Joachim in Denmark.
Other opt out, like Märtha in Norway.

What I see is a lot of excuses for not doing anything new.

As for Aiko. We have established earlier in this thread that some conservatives are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to prevent a woman on the throne. Even adopting a male child from a remote branch of the family would IMO be acceptable to some, rather than a female emperor! - Never mind the human aspects.
Cloning would probably also be acceptable for that matter...

The problem is that at present there is only a tragedy, a mental illness, a low sperm count, a "dynastically speaking undesired sexual preference" or a scandal between Aiko and the throne.
Japan is running out of young heirs.

And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand, other surveys have shown that the Japanese public are much more open for a female empress.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

The question of being politically neutral also applies in other monarchies.

Surplus royals quietly fade out - some even during their own lifetime. See Madeleine in Sweden or perhaps Joachim in Denmark.
Other opt out, like Märtha in Norway.

Yes, but before fading out they generate headlines and critical commentary with their and their spouses' business ventures, and even some European monarchies seem to be taking steps toward restricting royal status to those who will play a role in the monarchy.

What I see is a lot of excuses for not doing anything new.

Are you referring to the enthronement? That is the only excuse I can perceive in the government's statement.

As for Aiko. We have established earlier in this thread that some conservatives are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to prevent a woman on the throne. Even adopting a male child from a remote branch of the family would IMO be acceptable to some, rather than a female emperor! - Never mind the human aspects.
Cloning would probably also be acceptable for that matter...

The problem is that at present there is only a tragedy, a mental illness, a low sperm count, a "dynastically speaking undesired sexual preference" or a scandal between Aiko and the throne.
Japan is running out of young heirs.

And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand, other surveys have shown that the Japanese public are much more open for a female empress.

I don't think the nationalist conservatives are burying their heads in the sand at all. It is precisely because they recognize that a tragedy, low sperm count, etc. is a possibility that they are attempting to postpone the discussions indefinitely. Discussions might bring about a female-led branch, which might have the consequence of a sonless Emperor Hisahito being succeeded by his daughter, female cousin, or female-line nephew/niece instead of by a male child from a remote patrilineal branch of the family.

 

[Muhler]

Yes, but before fading out they generate headlines and critical commentary with their and their spouses' business ventures, and even some European monarchies seem to be taking steps toward restricting royal status to those who will play a role in the monarchy.

Otherwise they would generate headlines and critical commentary for being idle and costing taxpayer money...
Just look at a number of the British royals.

Are you referring to the enthronement? That is the only excuse I can perceive in the government's statement.

I refer to the very serious question of Japan running out of official heirs.
A question that could be solved by accepting female heirs.

I don't think the nationalist conservatives are burying their heads in the sand at all. It is precisely because they recognize that a tragedy, low sperm count, etc. is a possibility that they are attempting to postpone the discussions indefinitely. Discussions might bring about a female-led branch, which might have the consequence of a sonless Emperor Hisahito being succeeded by his daughter, female cousin, or female-line nephew/niece instead of by a male child from a remote patrilineal branch of the family.

Well, if you believe that then I've got an Eiffel Tower for sale. ?
The national-conservatives don't strike me as people who are particularly concerned with the sensibilities of the Imperial Family. On the contrary in fact.
There is a global tendency among ultra-conservatives to be scared witless of females in prominent positions. I don't really understand why and it's usually excused by traditional and/or religious reasons - ergo it should not be done...

 

[King of the Jungle]

Who is in line for the throne of Japan if the young Hisahito were to have no children and assuming his father and uncle predecease him?

 

[Prisma]

No one. Well, Prince Hitachi is next in line but he's 83 and not likely to succeed

1. Naruhito
2. Fumihito (Prince Akishino)
3. Hisahito
4. Masahito (Prince Hitachi, Emperor Akihito's brother)

Not succession related but a recent Poll finds low expectations for Abe, but don't want change: The Asahi Shimbun

Even though a majority of respondents in a survey hold low expectations for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they prefer stability over an upheaval in the political landscape.

[...]

A combined 41 percent of respondents said they held "high" or "somewhat high" expectations for Abe, while 57 percent said they held "low" or "somewhat low" expectations.

Among respondents who said they had no political party affiliation, a combined 76 percent said they had low expectations for Abe.

But that did not translate into a desire for change in the political world.

When asked what they preferred in politics, 60 percent of respondents said "stability," while only 34 percent chose "change."

Even among respondents who said they held low expectations for Abe, 51 percent preferred stability over the 43 percent who wanted change.

[...]

When asked to what extent they trusted what Abe said, a combined 60 percent said they had "no" or "very little" trust. Among those with no party affiliation, 79 percent said they didn't trust what Abe said.

The respondents were generally cautious about the extended period during which the LDP has dominated both chambers of the Diet, with 80 percent of respondents saying the situation was not good.

At the same time, the respondents did not want to see repeated changes in government, with only 40 percent saying they welcomed such a development, and 53 percent saying otherwise.

[...]

Questionnaires were mailed from early March and collected until mid-April. Valid responses were obtained from 2,043 voters.

The poll also showed that respondents who mainly get their news through the Internet or social networking services tended to be more right-leaning.

[...]

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Not succession related but a recent Poll finds low expectations for Abe, but don't want change: The Asahi Shimbun

Even though a majority of respondents in a survey hold low expectations for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they prefer stability over an upheaval in the political landscape.

[...]

A combined 41 percent of respondents said they held "high" or "somewhat high" expectations for Abe, while 57 percent said they held "low" or "somewhat low" expectations.

Among respondents who said they had no political party affiliation, a combined 76 percent said they had low expectations for Abe.

But that did not translate into a desire for change in the political world.

When asked what they preferred in politics, 60 percent of respondents said "stability," while only 34 percent chose "change."

Even among respondents who said they held low expectations for Abe, 51 percent preferred stability over the 43 percent who wanted change.

[...]

When asked to what extent they trusted what Abe said, a combined 60 percent said they had "no" or "very little" trust. Among those with no party affiliation, 79 percent said they didn't trust what Abe said.

The respondents were generally cautious about the extended period during which the LDP has dominated both chambers of the Diet, with 80 percent of respondents saying the situation was not good.

At the same time, the respondents did not want to see repeated changes in government, with only 40 percent saying they welcomed such a development, and 53 percent saying otherwise.

[...]

Questionnaires were mailed from early March and collected until mid-April. Valid responses were obtained from 2,043 voters.

The poll also showed that respondents who mainly get their news through the Internet or social networking services tended to be more right-leaning.

[...]

Thank you for posting this, Prisma. I think it is a helpful addition to this discussion, as it elucidates the mental process of the public and politicians who largely give passive verbal support to female branches/empresses but have made the choice (which is fully understandable within the context of Japanese politics) not to take affirmative steps in pursuit of that change.

Otherwise they would generate headlines and critical commentary for being idle and costing taxpayer money...
Just look at a number of the British royals.

That's quite true. In my opinion, it is another point in favor of having the Japanese-style binary choice between working full-time for the monarchy (and/or an uncontentious charitable organization) or becoming an entirely private citizen.

Well, if you believe that then I've got an Eiffel Tower for sale. ?
The national-conservatives don't strike me as people who are particularly concerned with the sensibilities of the Imperial Family. On the contrary in fact.
There is a global tendency among ultra-conservatives to be scared witless of females in prominent positions. I don't really understand why and it's usually excused by traditional and/or religious reasons - ergo it should not be done...

But I did not say they were concerned with the sensibilities of the imperial family. What I said was that they are not burying their heads in the sand. If anyone is leaving themselves open to the charge of burying their heads in the sand, it is the public, who state their support of change for women in the imperial family but are continuing to back Prime Minister Abe, a staunch opponent (to clarify, I think the public's actions are fully explainable and I am not accusing them of burying their heads in the sand).

The nationalist-conservatives have made their position clear. Were anything to happen to Hisahito, or if he failed to produce a son, they would heartily choose allowing the official line of heirs to run out and promoting a commoner from a remote male branch of the family to the imperial throne, over accepting females as official heirs. Far from burying their heads in the sand, they have recognized the possibilities and they are making a choice accordingly.

 

[Muhler]

So to sum up: We pretty much mean the same thing?

Except that I perhaps have a good deal more reservations when it comes to national-conservatism. Some of them have a tendency, over time, to develop a stiff right arm...

 

[Hans-Rickard]

I sadly don't think Aiko, Mako or Kako will ever reign.
Their children ? Only if Hisahito dies without sons and at least one of them marry a male line descendant of an Emperor and have children so theur children is still in the correct bloodline.

Otherwise, i'm pretty sure we will see an Empress Aiko for a while who will be succeeded by a man from another branch who has been brought up as a commoner and elevsted to royal status late in life. A stable solution for the monarchy ? I don't know. The only thing i know is that it won't happen here in Sweden. And probably in no other european monarchy. But the swedish monarchy is not the Japanese one....

It's easy for us here in Europe to sit and tell how Japan should handle their monarchy, based on how we do and after our western european culture and not after their culture and traditions.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

So to sum up: We pretty much mean the same thing?

Except that I perhaps have a good deal more reservations when it comes to national-conservatism. Some of them have a tendency, over time, to develop a stiff right arm...

I was under the impression that we weren't having a political discussion (assuredly, I wasn't discussing politics), but debating the motivations behind nationalist-conservatives' ostensible inaction concerning the succession and membership laws.

My response was to your comment "And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand" (in post #1122), because it is a comment which numerous other people, at least in the West, have made.

My aim was to highlight that the reason the nationalist-conservatives are stalling is not that they are burying their heads in the sand – the term would imply they are ignoring the issue. To the contrary, it is because they are active and vigilant on this issue, and they recognize that stalling is the easiest route to achieving their desired outcome.

I sadly don't think Aiko, Mako or Kako will ever reign.
Their children ? Only if Hisahito dies without sons and at least one of them marry a male line descendant of an Emperor and have children so theur children is still in the correct bloodline.

Otherwise, i'm pretty sure we will see an Empress Aiko for a while who will be succeeded by a man from another branch who has been brought up as a commoner and elevsted to royal status late in life. A stable solution for the monarchy ? I don't know. The only thing i know is that it won't happen here in Sweden. And probably in no other european monarchy. But the swedish monarchy is not the Japanese one....

It's easy for us here in Europe to sit and tell how Japan should handle their monarchy, based on how we do and after our western european culture and not after their culture and traditions.

I think the outcome of Hisahito dying without sons would be determined by many influences: the government and public opinion of the day, whether female-led branches have been introduced, the existence of any scandals connected to the suggested candidates for the imperial throne.

It bears remembering that if Emperor Akihito had not asked Fumihito and Kiko to conceive a male child, Japan would almost certainly have a Crown Princess Aiko and Prince Kei (if Mako were allowed to marry her boyfriend in this scenario) in the near future.

 

[Somebody]

It bears remembering that if Emperor Akihito had not asked Fumihito and Kiko to conceive a male child, Japan would almost certainly have a Crown Princess Aiko and Prince Kei (if Mako were allowed to marry her boyfriend in this scenario) in the near future.

Do we know for sure it was the emperor who asked his son (and daughter-in-law) to try for more children?

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Do we know for sure it was the emperor who asked his son (and daughter-in-law) to try for more children?

The emperor has never made a public statement to that effect. But I agree with ChiaraC's reading of the events and her conclusion that the couple would never have done so, and the IHA official would never have made the public statement asking them to do so in 2003, without support from the emperor.

Correction: The public statement about the Akishinos was made in 2003 (and thus not immediately after Aiko's birth), and on a reread of some of ChiaraC's posts on this forum, it seems she was citing the analysis of two reliable journalists.

As Fritz and Kobayashi report it had at this time already become obvious even to some visitors of the princess that there was something seriously wrong with her. One remembered: “The princess tried to hide her psychical fatigue because she did not want to cause worries to anybody. But the dark circles around her eyes could not be overlooked, despite of the make-up she had put on.” A friend of Masako´s told Fritz and Kobayashi that this was one of the princess` characteristics: “It is part of her character that she will try to the last to not show her suffering to others.” Unfortunately though, in a certain respect she was too successful doing this: the medical team surrounding the princess (they are always there, not because she was thought to be ill at the time but just because in her position as the crown princess she would always have medicals watching her) did not take her serious when she described to them her symptoms of sleeplessness, fatigue and her problems to get up in the morning. Their advice simply consisted in: “Take walks and think positive!” And it very probably did not make things easier for Masako that in June 2003 the grand steward of the kunaicho, Toshio Yuasa, said on a press conference that he strongly wanted the couple to have their second child – and that he was not the only one entertaining that wish…

Masako still carried on a bit but on the 2nd December 2003, only one day after her daughter´s second birthday, she broke down with physical symptoms that the doctors finally HAD to take serious. She was diagnosed with herpes zoster. Herpes zoster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia A famous dermatologist from a big private hospital was called in at once who prescribed a treatment combined of antibiotics and injections. Although this eased Masako´s pain the doctor decided to have her brought to the palace hospital where she remained until the 8th December. But the princess was still not well. So, the celebrations on occasion of her 40th birthday had to be cancelled. The head of the togu household, at the time that was Hideki Hayashida, declared that the princess would not be able to perform any official duties before spring 2004. As a reason he said that Masako was suffering from exhaustion because of the double burden of official duties and the education of her child.

It was at the same time that Masako was publicly informed that she had finally been given up as hopeless to bear an heir. Toshio Yuasa, grand steward of the kunaicho, told the press that for the interest of the monarchy the Akishinos were desired to have their third child. And he added that this should be done quickly in order to not further increase the big gap (in age) already existing between this new child and its elder sisters. Fritz and Kobayashi comment that for an executive, even if he was the grand steward of the kunaicho, it would have been impertinent and by far exceeding his authority to bring public shame on the crown princess in such a way. And they say that as he nevertheless dared to act like this it is to be supposed that he was not speaking for himself but had been ordered to do so by a higher power…

In January 2004, the princess herself gave a comment on her state (in written form). It said: “Since my wedding, approximately 10 years ago, I have tried to give my best in an unfamiliar environment under enormous pressure. But I feel that my illness is owing to the fact that my psychical and physical exhaustion has been accumulating during that time. Since Aiko´s birth I have taken pains to do justice equally to my official duties and to the taking care of my child. But since last year´s spring I feel bad.”

I really think its contents are worth sharing because the authors are trying to give an explanation for the conflicts in the imperial family that to me seems very interesting and convincing. As you can already suppose from the title (Prinzessin Masako – Der gefangene Schmetterling: Princess Masako – The encaged butterfly, from 2005) they are very compassionate upon Masako. They say that they got a lot of information from friends of Masako and Naruhito who did not get the couple´s official permission to talk to journalists but who are so concerned and worried about the situation that they decided to give them anonymously the information they have. That the authors really got their information from these friends, of course, is something that they cannot prove under the circumstances, we have to believe it (or not). From my point of view, I can say that neither the style of the book nor the contents give the impression of yellow press. One of the authors, Martin Fritz, is a German journalist who lives in Tokio and works for a German public TV station, ARD, and they are usually supposed to be "serious" and to not invent things to make a story. (Of course there are many differences but to give you an idea: they have a reputation a bit like BBC.) They definitely have a reputation to lose if one of them tells nonsense. So I really suppose he should be creditable. The other author, Yoko Kobayashi, works as a free journalist in Tokio.

 

[Muhler]

I was under the impression that we weren't having a political discussion (assuredly, I wasn't discussing politics), but debating the motivations behind nationalist-conservatives' ostensible inaction concerning the succession and membership laws.

My response was to your comment "And while the national-conservative wish to keep burying their heads in the sand" (in post #1122), because it is a comment which numerous other people, at least in the West, have made.

My aim was to highlight that the reason the nationalist-conservatives are stalling is not that they are burying their heads in the sand – the term would imply they are ignoring the issue. To the contrary, it is because they are active and vigilant on this issue, and they recognize that stalling is the easiest route to achieving their desired outcome.

(Shortened by me.)

Alas, we cannot separate politics from the succession issue, especially not when it comes to the national-conservatives.

As you know most of the mainstream press in Japan is either controlled or under heavy influence of the current government and/or the more ultra national conservative segments of the public and political spectrum.
(In other threads we have discussed for the foreign political aspects of that. Which is a major irritant to quite a few of Japan's neighbors!
And also the hushing up of certain things regarding the nuclear plant that was flooded after the tsunami.)
In the press a number of trial-balloons have gone up in regards to the succession issues, not least in regards to proposing a number of solutions to how having a female on the throne is (read should be) unnecessary.
I need not mention the suggestion of using an official (and fertile) concubine, do I? Of course suggested while adding that as a last resort-absolutely-last-unavidable-necessary step a female could (at least temporarily) sit on the throne.
And while we outside Japan, may roll our eyes way back in our heads or even chuckle at these suggestion, the political realities in Japan is that the current national-conservative government needs the support of the ultra-nationals. So the albeit limited (but very influential) political resistance to females on the throne is to be taken very seriously!

 

[Prisma]

Key opposition party favors opening way for female, maternal-line emperors - The Mainichi

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) has declared that it is in favor of opening the way for female members of the Imperial Family in the male line and male members in the female line to ascend to the Imperial Throne.

[...]

In the meantime, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), another key opposition party, said it agrees with allowing female members of the Imperial Family in the male line to accede to the throne as it unveiled a summary of its proposal to revise the Imperial House Law. However, it stopped short of supporting the idea of allowing those in the female line to ascend to the throne.

[...]

The CDP and the DPFP released their respective views in apparent bids to take the initiative in discussions on Imperial succession, an issue that has drawn particular attention from the public, and urge the government to take action.

There are no prospects that a consensus can be formed on whether to allow Imperial Family members in the female line to ascend to the Chrysanthemum Throne, which the CDP advocates.

[....]

In contrast, the DPFP is poised to submit a bill to revise the Imperial House Law to the Diet during the ongoing regular session at the earliest and incorporate the proposal in its campaign pledge. The party believes there is room for compromise on its proposal to allow female members of the Imperial Family in the male line to accede to the throne because even conservatives within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party accept the idea.

Another opposition Japanese Communist Party (JCP) earlier this month declared that it is also in favor of allowing female members of the Imperial Family and male members in the female line to ascend to the Imperial Throne. [...]

On June 20th, ultranationalist association Nippon Kaigi rejected female emperors, female-line emperors, and female-led Imperial branches at a plenary session within the National Assembly. They will propose measures to secure male-only succession. [Sankei]

 

[Muhler]

An interesting suggestion.
That should annoy the government since it's a palatable compromise as well as sound and therefore difficult to reject.

It depends of course on how dependent the government is on the ultra-nationalists. And how important the ultra-nationalists find this.
I think this proposal is half genuinely sincere and half designed to create a split within the government coalition.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Key opposition party favors opening way for female, maternal-line emperors - The Mainichi

I wonder why the CDP and DPFP opted against embracing a more wholehearted stance. The polling evidence is that anti-maternal-line emperor voters are overwhelmingly anti-female emperor as well, and considering the preponderance of ultranationalists among them, I'm skeptical about the winnability of these voters for the CDP and DPFP.

The Communist Party's suggestion to open the imperial throne to non-imperial family members is odd.

On June 20th, ultranationalist association Nippon Kaigi rejected female emperors, female-line emperors, and female-led Imperial branches at a plenary session within the National Assembly. They will propose measures to secure male-only succession. [Sankei]

Nippon Kaigi has made their views clear enough with or without a plenary session...

An interesting suggestion.
That should annoy the government since it's a palatable compromise as well as sound and therefore difficult to reject.

Unfortunately, the government is under no obligation to reject it. They need only to reiterate their promises to discuss the suggestions - on a date to be announced later.

Alas, we cannot separate politics from the succession issue, especially not when it comes to the national-conservatives.

Yes, but you seemingly thought that I was discussing my own positions on politics, and I wished to emphasize that I was not.

 

[Jiwa]

I wonder why the CDP and DPFP opted against embracing a more wholehearted stance. The polling evidence is that anti-maternal-line emperor voters are overwhelmingly anti-female emperor as well, and considering the preponderance of ultranationalists among them, I'm skeptical about the winnability of these voters for the CDP and DPFP.

The gap between LDP and other parties is huge.

http://https//www.japantimes.co.jp/...-20-opposition-39-undecided-japan-poll-shows/

In a two-day telephone poll conducted from Wednesday, 28.8 percent said they would vote for the LDP when casting their ballots under proportional representation. The ruling party was followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan with 9.0 percent.Komeito, which forms the ruling bloc with the LDP, garnered 5.6 percent, while the Japanese Communist Party had 3.4 percent followed by Nippon Ishin no Kai at 3.2 percent, the Democratic Party for the People at 1.6 percent and the Social Democratic Party at 1.2 percent.

Tsumura Keisuke from DPFP and Yasushi Adachi from JRP are promoting Aiko to be the Crown Princess. The proposal content is to allow female inheritance with the priority given to the direct descendant then to the paternal line with the following succession order :
1. Princess Aiko
2. Prince Akishino
3. Prince Hisahito
4. Princess Mako
5. Princess Kako
6. Prince Hitachi

Tsumura keisuke claimed that his party haven't decide anything to allow female-line / maternal-line succession. He said with this succession order he insisted on "giving priority to the male-line". As for the female miyake that is for the future generations of the citizens to decide.

So far with this proposal DPFP don't lose or gain supports significantly despite the survey for Crown Princess Aiko is about 70 to 80 percent in favor.
While the JRP is currently on crisis. They are usually regarded as voters alternative for LDP. But now some voters are sceptical ever since the CP Aiko proposal and another proposal avout birthplace information elimination from koseki and other identity documents.

The statement about Japan's media being controlled by ultra-nationalist conservative right-wing is not true. In Heisei era there's a new conservative generations that have different characteristic than their older counterparts the uyoku dantai. This new generation is called Netouyo. Literally means internet right-wing. Netouyo was a phenomenon in those days because they deviate from mainstream media's opinion. Netouyo in its conception was started as an insult and the mainstream media liked to "study" them and their mindset on tv programs in a condecending way. The internet is their turf and matome websites are their nests. This Netouyo also more friendly towards USA than the uyoku dantai.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Welcome, and thank you for your perceptive posts!

The gap between LDP and other parties is huge.

http://https//www.japantimes.co.jp/...-20-opposition-39-undecided-japan-poll-shows/

In a two-day telephone poll conducted from Wednesday, 28.8 percent said they would vote for the LDP when casting their ballots under proportional representation. The ruling party was followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan with 9.0 percent.Komeito, which forms the ruling bloc with the LDP, garnered 5.6 percent, while the Japanese Communist Party had 3.4 percent followed by Nippon Ishin no Kai at 3.2 percent, the Democratic Party for the People at 1.6 percent and the Social Democratic Party at 1.2 percent.

Indeed, I'm surprised the leaders of the small parties (is the JRP the JIP?), who presumably have an understanding of their numbers, are concerned enough about disappointing voters on this issue to attempt to straddle the divide. I have a strong feeling that the parliamentary arithmetic is not going to change depending on the minor parties' positions on the Imperial House Law.

Tsumura Keisuke from DPFP and Yasushi Adachi from JRP are promoting Aiko to be the Crown Princess. The proposal content is to allow female inheritance with the priority given to the direct descendant then to the paternal line with the following succession order :
1. Princess Aiko
2. Prince Akishino
3. Prince Hisahito
4. Princess Mako
5. Princess Kako
6. Prince Hitachi

Tsumura keisuke claimed that his party haven't decide anything to allow female-line / maternal-line succession. He said with this succession order he insisted on "giving priority to the male-line". As for the female miyake that is for the future generations of the citizens to decide.

A confusing claim. I don't understand how an order of succession in which Aiko is number one and Hisahito is number three could be considered to "give priority to the male line", or how female succession could be sustainable if female-line succession and branches are not instituted.

So far with this proposal DPFP don't lose or gain supports significantly despite the survey for Crown Princess Aiko is about 70 to 80 percent in favor.
While the JRP is currently on crisis. They are usually regarded as voters alternative for LDP. But now some voters are sceptical ever since the CP Aiko proposal and another proposal avout birthplace information elimination from koseki and other identity documents.

Do you have the survey, and does it refer to female succession, or to making Aiko in particular the Crown Princess? I would think the latter would receive more criticism since it would remove Fumihito and Hisahito from their position as future monarchs.

The statement about Japan's media being controlled by ultra-nationalist conservative right-wing is not true. In Heisei era there's a new conservative generations that have different characteristic than their older counterparts the uyoku dantai. This new generation is called Netouyo. Literally means internet right-wing. Netouyo was a phenomenon in those days because they deviate from mainstream media's opinion. Netouyo in its conception was started as an insult and the mainstream media liked to "study" them and their mindset on tv programs in a condecending way. The internet is their turf and matome websites are their nests. This Netouyo also more friendly towards USA than the uyoku dantai.

Thank you for the clarification. Do you think there is a demographic divide between the Netouyo and the nationalist establishment on imperial issues?

I wish solo activities for Imperial women were considered years ago, especially for Masako. Imagine if she had been allowed patronages or something.

Agreed. I hope that all the members of the imperial family, including the Akishino sisters, the Mikasas and the Takamados, will be able to develop their independent contributions during this reign.

 

[Ista]

More opinions on the succession issues:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...-ascending-chrysanthemum-throne/#.XS5cRy2ZM6V

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ccession-follows-male-bloodline/#.XS5c2i2ZM6U

 

[Tatiana Maria]

More opinions on the succession issues:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...-ascending-chrysanthemum-throne/#.XS5cRy2ZM6V

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ccession-follows-male-bloodline/#.XS5c2i2ZM6U

While the professors' analyses of the Constitution are interesting, I would not expect their arguments to have any political value. The cases of Japan's Supreme Court striking down a law as unconstitutional are remarkably rare, happening only in cases of blatant violation of the Constitution. Moreover, neither side's constitutional argument is seriously compelling, in my personal opinion.

The Constitution indeed forbids gender discrimination in Article 14, but the same Article 14 also forbids hereditary privileges. If the monarchy should not be "above the law", as Professor Yokota says, the same principle could be used to argue that the monarchy itself is unconstitutional.

On the other hand, Professor Yagi's argument that in 1946, the wording "hereditary" in Article 2 was supposed to mean exclusively male heirs runs counter to history. The Diet in 1946 already saw debate over whether the gender equality clause in the Constitution allowed male-only succession.

The then Imperial Household Ministry offered the view that Imperial succession only by male-line males would not run counter to gender equality guaranteed under the Constitution because the Imperial Family was an exception. However, in the then Imperial Diet, many legislators pointed out the inconsistency between male-only Imperial succession and the supreme law.

"When I read the Imperial House Act, I can't help feeling that the Imperial Family stands out from the people," said Ito Niizuma, a legislator of the Social Democratic Party of Japan, during a House of Representatives session in December 1946. Niizuma was elected to the Diet in April that year -- the year when Japanese women were franchised in national politics. Citing gender equality under the postwar Constitution, Niizuma continued, "As women appear to have become equal to human beings, I wonder if they can somehow eliminate the 'male-line male' rule."

[…]

In response, then Minister of State Tokujiro Kanamori said, "We have no choice but to recognize the legitimacy of the conventional system that has been in place for many years and to keep carrying it out." His reply was an apparent attempt to sidestep in-depth debate over the compatibility of the male-only succession rule with the new Constitution. "It is almost the Japanese people's conviction that the Imperial Throne must be succeeded by male-line males," he added.