If the IHA is traditionalist like Prince Akishino but not Prince Naruhito, then it's to the IHA's great advantage for the succession to move to the younger brother and not down the Crown Prince's line. That way, the Crown Prince can try to make all the reforms he wants to - the IHA knows it can just wait him out. And Prince Hisahito is being raised by his traditionalist father, not his reformist uncle.
I would not call prince Akishino traditionalist. In order to be traditionalist he would need to have principles, traditionalist principles in that case. But I think that he has as much principles, traditionalist or reformist or whatever, as a cat: If he wants to marry before his elder brother – which is against tradition – he will be a mightily modern man. And if his favouring the male succession offers him the opportunity to attain a higher status for himself he will support the traditionalists with much zeal. But, in any case, it is always about what he wants and what is comfortable for him.
I agree in so far with you as I think that he will be easy to handle by the establishment. As long as his personal needs and wishes are well taken care of he will certainly not quarrel with them and will let them do whatever they think best. But if we called such a way of behaviour traditionalist we would, in my opinion, wrong those who really and truly support traditionalist or conservative values.
As for Hisahito, I would not yet despair - you never know. He would not be the first child in history to be raised by his parents with a clear idea about who he should become - and to turn out quite differently...
The best example to demonstrate this would be his uncle Naruhito. He was raised in a very severe, rigid way, and, for a Japanese child, in extraordinary isolation. And, in fact, he became the proverbial good boy whom all Japanese mothers could set up as an example to their sons. But hardly did Naru-chan´s parents think that this paragon of obedience would one day be enabled by this very education to stubbornly endure their disapproval, without changing his mind, and to endure it for years… We know that the crown prince is pretty much isolated in his family and probably also among the executives who surround him. Of course, his wife supports him to the best of her ability but she has already succumbed in some measure to the pressure they are living under. But her husband still does not show any signs of breaking down soon. He stands nearly alone but he stands. In a society that is based to such a degree on team playing and conformism as the Japanese this is nearly a miracle. And I do think that the hard and isolated way in which the crown prince was raised is one of the ingredients that made this miracle come true. He has become used by his hard childhood to being on his own and to still finding means to survive somehow. Like the flower in the desert that has impressed him so much…
Theme for the New Year's Poetry Reading,2009 (Other important ingredients are probably Naruhito´s strong sense of duty and his conviction of having a mission.)
Naruhito has grown up to show in some respects a completely different behaviour from what his parents had intended in raising him. Likewise, we cannot be sure yet what will become of little Hisahito – he might well surprise us all one day…
Well, in twenty years or so from now, maybe they will have to change some laws. We'll have to wait and see.
If they want to change the law so that the princesses can stay in the family when they marry and support the heir of the throne I am all for it. But that will make any sense only if they do it very soon: whoever will marry an imperial princess has to know - preferably before even courting her but certainly before the engagement takes place - if that means that he will have to stand for the rest of his life in the public limelight and visit foreign states or if he can basically go on with his life as he intended before he fell in love with Mako, Kako or Aiko, with only the nice addition of a luxurious flat in the centre of Tokyo.
Mako is nearly grown up, so there is no time to be left.
As emperor, will he not have power over the IHA? I genuinely do not know if his position will allow for him to make changes in the IHA that ultimately could result in a change in succession.
Formally, it is the government and the parliament who have the power to change the succession law. We saw that before Kiko´s third pregnancy was announced, remember? There was a debate going on in the Japanese parliament about changing the law and making Aiko heiress after her father that was put off after the pregnancy had been made public.
So, even as the emperor Naruhito will not be able to directly change the rules of succession. He may be able to do something about it by informal influence but how much is probably impossible to guess.
Currently, that's how it stands.
