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  #521  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cepe View Post
No country today is truly independent.

To fully function, they need to be part of an alliance - UK; EU; Nato; UN; Commonwealth; SEATO; South American trading block etc. etc.

If the Scots vote yes, they have to apply (and meet the necessary criteria) to join all the relevant alliances - their history as part of UK does not count.
How does the UK decide who's going to be in the Commonwealth?
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  #522  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:54 PM
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I just read a tweet from one of the royal threads on Twitter that the Queen plans an address tomorrow afternoon (sorry no link - I had no idea I would need it).

Our CNN Wolf Blitzer just explained that the polls have closed and he is without polling data. As if the biggest issue is that Wolf has nothing factual to say...
Americans: we are nothing if not centered on our view of the world.
I was doing some driving of my Dad to appointments this afternoon. I had National Public Radio and and they did 20 minutes of Yes coverage. Terrible bias (and they normally at least nod at both sides of a question).

My thoughts are with all my affected Forums members tonight.
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  #523  
Old 09-18-2014, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kellydofc View Post
How does the UK decide who's going to be in the Commonwealth?

The UK doesn't decide.

Every one of Her Majesty's Realms is automatically in the Commonwealth. If Scotland votes Yes then Scotland is a Commonwealth Realm.

If a republic wishes to join the Commonwealth or retain membership after ceasing to be a Realm then the already existing Nations have to approve its membership.
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  #524  
Old 09-18-2014, 07:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cepe View Post
No country today is truly independent.

To fully function, they need to be part of an alliance - UK; EU; Nato; UN; Commonwealth; SEATO; South American trading block etc. etc.

If the Scots vote yes, they have to apply (and meet the necessary criteria) to join all the relevant alliances - their history as part of UK does not count.
You are absolutely right.
Furthermore, the referendum format "50%+1 vote" is odd. It will surely lead to ambiguous results and disputes.
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  #525  
Old 09-18-2014, 07:30 PM
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Sky News

Quote:
Many expect the result to go down to the wire - however YouGov's president tells Sky News he cannot see the No campaign losing.

The polls have closed and Scotland has made its decision - there are now just hours to wait to discover the future of the UK.

More than four million voters were asked the simple question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The result is expected to go down to the wire, with polls in the last two weeks of the campaign suggesting the result is too close to call.
A Yes vote will bring an end to the Union of the United Kingdom that has stood for 307 years.

A poll taken by YouGov after people voted in the Scottish referendum predicts a victory for No by 54% to 46% for Yes.

The survey involved 1,828 people after they voted today, together with the postal votes of 800 people, and was not a traditional exit poll.
Yes Campaign Bullish Despite YouGov Prediction
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  #526  
Old 09-18-2014, 07:57 PM
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The President of the polling company YouGov Peter Kellner has told Sky News he's 99% certain of a No vote win.
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  #527  
Old 09-18-2014, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
I don't see it that way.
The Scottish yes-voters will gain political advantages even if they lose, especially if they lose with a very, very low margin.
The no-voters would lose all. - But they will in return demand political concessions, which will make life a lot more difficult for the yes side.

The yes-side can try again in say ten or twenty years and perhaps this time secure a much more convincing yes to independence.
It's after all unlikely the UK will accept Scotland returning should the no side gain a political majority later on, no matter how big it may be.

Apart from the usual hooligans I can hardly see the Scottish yes-voters rioting should the outcome have been say 52-48 in favour of a yes. (With the acceptable majority being say 66 %)
After all I don't think the Scottish are or feel opressed, it's IMO more a case of there being very far politically speaking from Westminster to Scotland. - The northern most parts of England may actually feel the same way as the Scottish in that respect.

In other words isn't this referendum more about knocking the politicians in Westminster on the heads, rather than a genuine wish for full independence?

It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but I think Scotland will eventually become independent, - in a generation from now, but not today.

I don't think for a moment that this vote is about anything less than a genuine desire for independence. What's fueled that independence - be it patriotism or frustration with Westminster or both - can be debated, but when the referendum is as clear as "should Scotland be independent" and it's being anticipated to be a close vote, then it's about a lot more than just scaring Westminster.

The Yeses are going to win something regardless, as it's been made clear that Westminster intends on granting concessions to Scotland if the Nos win, which is a clear ploy to try to change the minds of the people who are only voting Yes out of frustration, but again I don't think the Yes is based purely on that.

The No vote will be losing all if the Yeses win, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. They're going to be in a position where either they have to count their loses and make the best of it in Scotland or else emigrate. I don't think they'll necessarily be able to make any demands of the Yeses in a post independence Scotland, but who knows.

My prediction of riot was not based on the actual circumstances of the referendum as it stands, but rather the outcome if the vote needed to hit 66%, as you think it should have to. I don't believe for an instant that this is an attempt to knock the heads of Westminster, but rather a genuine attempt for independence. As such, I firmly believe that in such a situation as you put, if the majority of Scots had voted "yes" but failed to meet the magic number set my Westminster - the 66% - then there would be riots, as the majority of Scots, by however narrow of a margin, would have voiced their desire for independence only to have a foreign government deny it to them because not enough people voted yes.

That's all hypothetical, though, as those circumstances don't exist in this referendum. As it stands now, I don't expect there to be any serious uprisings either way, although I do expect a good chunk of the Scottish population to be disappointed with the outcome, regardless of the outcome itself.
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  #528  
Old 09-18-2014, 09:34 PM
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First result from Clackmannanshire is through, with the no vote 8% ahead.. the Yes side was expected to do better there, but it is the smallest constituency in Scotland so not too much should be read into this result.
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  #529  
Old 09-18-2014, 09:41 PM
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Quote:
Alex Salmond has apparently pulled out of appearing at his local referendum count after a final poll suggested that he is set to lose the historic independence vote.
The First Minister had been expected to visit the Aberdeenshire County Council ballot count after spending the day in the county, where he has his Scottish Parliament seat.
However, after the release of a YouGov poll showing the No campaign eight points ahead, a spokesman for Mr Salmond said he would skip the event and instead fly to Edinburgh.
Expecting bad news, Mr Salmond? With the writing on the wall, SNP leader pulls out of appearance at his local count* | Daily Mail Online
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  #530  
Old 09-18-2014, 09:50 PM
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Reminder (apologies to those in the know) that this is not the majority of wins in each area, it is the total % of votes. This 1st result is teeny; its the large nos. that matter. So Im staying calm and not counting chickens.
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  #531  
Old 09-18-2014, 09:59 PM
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The article mentioned: "after the release of the final YouGov survey, which put No on 54 per cent with Yes lagging on just 46 per cent."

How reliable is the YouGov survey?
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  #532  
Old 09-18-2014, 10:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cepe View Post
Reminder (apologies to those in the know) that this is not the majority of wins in each area, it is the total % of votes. This 1st result is teeny; its the large nos. that matter. So Im staying calm and not counting chickens.
Thank the Lord it's not like the US Electoral College, lol.

Definitely not counting any chickens for another 4-5 hours and the results from some of the largest constituencies.
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  #533  
Old 09-18-2014, 10:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CyrilVladisla View Post


The article mentioned: "after the release of the final YouGov survey, which put No on 54 per cent with Yes lagging on just 46 per cent."

How reliable is the YouGov survey?
I'm hoping very accurate

Methodology
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  #534  
Old 09-18-2014, 10:17 PM
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The exquisitely lovely Orkney Islands have also voted NO, by a comfortable margin.
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  #535  
Old 09-18-2014, 10:21 PM
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Orkney for No!

29,049 for No and 21,233 for Yes overall.


Laura Bicker

BBC Referendum Correspondent
Edinburgh count

Posted at 02:25
This is quite a hefty count to go through so it could be 05:00 before we get the result. There are a few worried faces within the "Yes" camp.

I have spoken to a few people here who believe it could be as much as 60% for "No" and 40% for "Yes".
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  #536  
Old 09-18-2014, 10:47 PM
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SHETLAND RESULT

Posted at 02:44
"No" wins by 9,951 votes to 5,669. That is a vote share of 64% for "No" and 36% for "Yes". The turnout was 15,620.
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  #537  
Old 09-18-2014, 10:59 PM
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Orkney & Shetland were expected to be "no" wins. The one I'm really looking forward to is Glasgow. That will be telling.
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  #538  
Old 09-18-2014, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Roslyn View Post
Orkney & Shetland were expected to be "no" wins. The one I'm really looking forward to is Glasgow. That will be telling.
Orkney i heard was a expected Yes


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  #539  
Old 09-18-2014, 11:03 PM
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Clackmannanshire is most surprising so far. Yes was expected to win

WESTERN ISLES RESULT

Posted at 03:03
"No" wins by 10,544 to 9,195. That is 53% for "No" against 47% for "Yes".
Ballot total: 19,758, a turnout 86.2%.
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  #540  
Old 09-18-2014, 11:06 PM
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The Western Isles [a strongly Nationalist area with an SNP at Westminster] has voted NO... This is a real surprise and is a good indication that Scotland will vote as a whole to stay in the United Kingdom.
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