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  #501  
Old 09-18-2014, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by cepe View Post
I wonder how the Queen is? Will she stay up? Will she find out ahead of the general public? (Mmm? need to see if I can find the answer to the last question). Will she speak to the nation or just quietly come back to BP this week end

Probably a night for 2 gin/dubonnet, rather than the usual one!
The Queen did not speak to the nation when Rhodesia became independent or when Hong Kong went to China, did she? Scotland at least remains one of her Realms, that can not be said about Rhodesia or Hong Kong.

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  #502  
Old 09-18-2014, 04:32 PM
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The thing about this referendum that irks me the most is 16 and 17 year olds voting. They have never been allowed to vote at that age before. Many of them will probably have no idea of the future ramifications of a yes vote and are caught up in the idea of a free, independent nation. Mr Salmond only wanted them to vote as he knew without them he wouldn't stand a chance!


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  #503  
Old 09-18-2014, 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair View Post
The Queen did not speak to the nation when Rhodesia became independent or when Hong Kong went to China, did she? Scotland at least remains one of her Realms, that can not be said about Rhodesia or Hong Kong.

If I remember it correctly, the Queen did speak to the Australian nation following Australia's republican referendum. Basically she renewed her committment to continue serving the Australian people as "their Queen" following the decision in the referendum to keep the monarchy.
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  #504  
Old 09-18-2014, 04:42 PM
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The campaign to keep Scotland in the Union has increased its narrow lead, according to the last referendum poll

An Evening Standard/ Ipsos Mori poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, found that the No campaign had taken a six point lead in the run up to the referendum.

It found that six in 10 of those voting for Scotland to stay in the union were motivated more by "fear" about the risks of independence than "hope" for the future. By contrast eight in 10 Yes voters said they were motivated more by hope than fear.

The poll highlighted a significant gender divide, with men 53 per cent of men favouring independence while 58 per cent of women said they intended to vote for Scotland to stay in the union.

People aged between 25 and 34 were the most likely to vote yes, dividing 73 to 27, while those over-55 were split two to one in favour of Scotland staying in the Union.
Scottish independence poll: No campaign takes six point lead - Telegraph
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  #505  
Old 09-18-2014, 04:49 PM
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That is a bit like mustard after dinner.... coming with a poll while the Mother-Of-All-Polls is right now under way...

It is impossible to predict. Asking a group of 1200 people but what age, which background, which political preference, from Edinburgh or from Dundee, etc. When it is so close, it is almost impossible to tell. A difference of 5% in a group of roughly 1000-1200 persons just means 40 persons. A change in that gap only needs a few persons, that is why these polls are as trustworthy as throwing a coin and choose which side...


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  #506  
Old 09-18-2014, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
I disagree with you, Ish.

The 66 % is to ensure that a very sizeble majority of the population actually do want to go through with whatever but crucial issue they vote for. In this case independence.
It's also to ensure the interests of the loosing side. In this case say 49 % of the voters, who could otherwise become very frustrated since there will be no turning back.
Such frustrations need of course not become violent, but they could result in people leaving Scotland, or at the very least that the no voters in this case would start to vote for those parties and politicians who were most in favour of a no, thus changing the political landscape.
In any case such a large minority would be very vocal, and very troublesome to deal with politically and ultimately the yes side could end up with a political pyrrus victory on their hands, rather than a new refreshing start, which they clearly aim for.

Don't get me wrong, If the Scots want independence they should have it. Personally I would not accept a part of my own country gaining independence based on a 1 % majority. That would be unfair for the loosing side and politically polarizing.
After all, the yes-side can always try again, this time perhaps securing a much more substancial majority.
The no-side only get one chance this way.
In other words: if the yes-side can't win with a large majority, then the project isn't mature yet.
I don't know.

When the 1995 Quebec referendum had a result of 50.58% voting against separation things were controversial. There were accusations of vote tampering (despite the fact that 98.12% of the votes were considered valid), deliberately unclear wording (which... granted, the wording of the referendum was rather unclear), and attempts to buy the vote. Now, almost 20 years later the issue still hangs over Canada and there are still concerns about whether or not Quebec is going to have another referendum, and what the result will be when it happens. And that's with a vote that had the No win. I can't imagine what would have happened had the Yes been at 50.58% and Quebec hadn't been given their sovereignty because the Yeses hadn't had enough of a vote.

If it's a close vote then the losing side is going to be disappointed either way and there will likely be repercussions - and if the Nos win by a small majority the issue isn't likely to go away. But if the Yeses come out with the majority and were denied their independence because they didn't have enough of a majority? That's how you start riots.
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  #507  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair View Post
That is a bit like mustard after dinner.... coming with a poll while the Mother-Of-All-Polls is right now under way...

It is impossible to predict. Asking a group of 1200 people but what age, which background, which political preference, from Edinburgh or from Dundee, etc. When it is so close, it is almost impossible to tell. A difference of 5% in a group of roughly 1000-1200 persons just means 40 persons. A change in that gap only needs a few persons, that is why these polls are as trustworthy as throwing a coin and choose which side...


As long as those 1,200 people are a true random sample where all voters in the country have an a priori equal probability of being interviewed, then statistical theory as we learn in college tells that, in 95 out of 100 samples, the estimated voting intention equals the actual voting intention plus or minus at most approximately 2.8 % (the infamous "margin of error").

So, yes, scientific polls are accurate.
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  #508  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Ish View Post
I don't know.

When the 1995 Quebec referendum had a result of 50.58% voting against separation things were controversial. There were accusations of vote tampering (despite the fact that 98.12% of the votes were considered valid), deliberately unclear wording (which... granted, the wording of the referendum was rather unclear), and attempts to buy the vote. Now, almost 20 years later the issue still hangs over Canada and there are still concerns about whether or not Quebec is going to have another referendum, and what the result will be when it happens. And that's with a vote that had the No win. I can't imagine what would have happened had the Yes been at 50.58% and Quebec hadn't been given their sovereignty because the Yeses hadn't had enough of a vote.

If it's a close vote then the losing side is going to be disappointed either way and there will likely be repercussions - and if the Nos win by a small majority the issue isn't likely to go away. But if the Yeses come out with the majority and were denied their independence because they didn't have enough of a majority? That's how you start riots.

I don't see it that way.
The Scottish yes-voters will gain political advantages even if they lose, especially if they lose with a very, very low margin.
The no-voters would lose all. - But they will in return demand political concessions, which will make life a lot more difficult for the yes side.

The yes-side can try again in say ten or twenty years and perhaps this time secure a much more convincing yes to independence.
It's after all unlikely the UK will accept Scotland returning should the no side gain a political majority later on, no matter how big it may be.

Apart from the usual hooligans I can hardly see the Scottish yes-voters rioting should the outcome have been say 52-48 in favour of a yes. (With the acceptable majority being say 66 %)
After all I don't think the Scottish are or feel opressed, it's IMO more a case of there being very far politically speaking from Westminster to Scotland. - The northern most parts of England may actually feel the same way as the Scottish in that respect.

In other words isn't this referendum more about knocking the politicians in Westminster on the heads, rather than a genuine wish for full independence?

It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but I think Scotland will eventually become independent, - in a generation from now, but not today.
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  #509  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mbruno View Post
As long as those 1,200 people are a true random sample where all voters in the country have an a priori equal probability of being interviewed, then statistical theory as we learn in college tells that, in 95 out of 100 samples, the estimated voting intention equals the actual voting intention plus or minus at most approximately 2.8 % (the infamous "margin of error").

So, yes, scientific polls are accurate.
But there seems a HUGE difference between cities as Edinburgh or Dundee, between the cities and the countryside, between young and old, between the haves and the have-nots. Plus a large group (16-17 years) which are for the first time in the electorate and are not in the 'overview' of the poll bureaus because they do not join online questionnaires, telephone- or street interviews. In general is assumed the young is more YES and the elders are more NO (which has absolutely to do with pensions). But Scotland has a large eh... "underclass" with low prospects and have nothing to loose. Getting rid -forever- from the hated Tories might be a great prospect. The "haves" will fear for their mortgages, their jobs and are believed to say NO. All this has to be catched in that very sample of 1.000 - 1.200 participants to an enquête and hopefully they say honest answers and indeed do in the polling station what they have told to the enquêteurs. It is what it is: too close to call.

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  #510  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:16 PM
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Just under an hour until polls close.. then its 'all over bar the shouting' { and I fear there WILL be shouting...
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  #511  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
I don't see it that way.
The Scottish yes-voters will gain political advantages even if they lose, especially if they lose with a very, very low margin.
The no-voters would lose all. - But they will in return demand political concessions, which will make life a lot more difficult for the yes side.

The yes-side can try again in say ten or twenty years and perhaps this time secure a much more convincing yes to independence.
It's after all unlikely the UK will accept Scotland returning should the no side gain a political majority later on, no matter how big it may be.

Apart from the usual hooligans I can hardly see the Scottish yes-voters rioting should the outcome have been say 52-48 in favour of a yes. (With the acceptable majority being say 66 %)
After all I don't think the Scottish are or feel opressed, it's IMO more a case of there being very far politically speaking from Westminster to Scotland. - The northern most parts of England may actually feel the same way as the Scottish in that respect.

In other words isn't this referendum more about knocking the politicians in Westminster on the heads, rather than a genuine wish for full independence?

It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but I think Scotland will eventually become independent, - in a generation from now, but not today.
I think that, like in Quebec in 1995, many voters do not genuinely want independence strictly speaking, but are being (mis)led into voting 'Yes' thinking they will retain some kind of "association" with the UK, including a common currency, common passport, common pensions and, in some voters' minds, even a common defense, without having to be ruled however by the Westminster parliament where a center-right party that happens to be unpopular in Scotland is now in power. In part, a 'Yes' vote is also a protest vote against the current British government, as many voters do not fully understand the implications of independence.
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  #512  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair View Post
But there seems a HUGE difference between cities as Edinburgh or Dundee, between the cities and the countryside, between young and old, between the haves and the have-nots. Plus a large group (16-17 years) which are for the first time in the electorate and are not in the 'overview' of the poll bureaus because they do not join online questionnaires, telephone- or street interviews. In general is assumed the young is more YES and the elders are more NO (which has absolutely to do with pensions). But Scotland has a large eh... "underclass" with low prospects and have nothing to loose. Getting rid -forever- from the hated Tories might be a great prospect. The "haves" will fear for their mortgages, their jobs and are believed to say NO. All this has to be catched in that very sample of 1.000 - 1.200 participants to an enquête and hopefully they say honest answers and indeed do in the polling station what they have told to the enquêteurs. It is what it is: too close to call.

@Duc: I don't know the methodology used by the polling firms in the UK, but I assume all of the subgroups that you mentioned are weighted accordingly in the sample.

In any case, the main reason why I agree it is too close to call is not so much sampling error/bias, but rather because the number of undecideds is still very high. Those 52/48 or 53/47 figures we see exclude "don't knows", but sometimes DKs are in the order of 10 %.
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  #513  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:35 PM
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No country today is truly independent.

To fully function, they need to be part of an alliance - UK; EU; Nato; UN; Commonwealth; SEATO; South American trading block etc. etc.

If the Scots vote yes, they have to apply (and meet the necessary criteria) to join all the relevant alliances - their history as part of UK does not count.
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  #514  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Duc_et_Pair View Post
That is a bit like mustard after dinner.... coming with a poll while the Mother-Of-All-Polls is right now under way...



It is impossible to predict. Asking a group of 1200 people but what age, which background, which political preference, from Edinburgh or from Dundee, etc. When it is so close, it is almost impossible to tell. A difference of 5% in a group of roughly 1000-1200 persons just means 40 persons. A change in that gap only needs a few persons, that is why these polls are as trustworthy as throwing a coin and choose which side...






Politicians and campaigns do exit polls ALL THE TIME. They don't just leave it up to chance. They want to know the result as soon as possible, as well as mobilize their vote machine wherever there appear to be gaps.

This is not unusual at all.
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  #515  
Old 09-18-2014, 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Mbruno View Post
I think that, like in Quebec in 1995, many voters do not genuinely want independence strictly speaking, but are being (mis)led into voting 'Yes' thinking they will retain some kind of "association" with the UK, including a common currency, common passport, common pensions and, in some voters' minds, even a common defense, without having to be ruled however by the Westminster parliament where a center-right party that happens to be unpopular in Scotland is now in power. In part, a 'Yes' vote is also a protest vote against the current British government, as many voters do not fully understand the implications of independence.
Based on boards and blogs I have read I think you are bang on. There was one board I was on where a person kept asking what would happen if independent Scotland couldn't keep the pound and they kept getting told that would never happen, just like the Bank of England was never really going to leave. In the end the person left the board and I was left feeling that a lot of people's ideas of what independence will be like are pretty pie in the sky.
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  #516  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:05 PM
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vSky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3 mins
Palace officials: The Queen is following Scottish #indyref closely and being kept abreast of matters by officials in Edinburgh and London
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  #517  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:08 PM
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Well thats it then the polls are closed. Nervous for the result.
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  #518  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:12 PM
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vSky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3 mins
Palace officials: The Queen is following Scottish #indyref closely and being kept abreast of matters by officials in Edinburgh and London
@Cepe: I assume HM would follow the #indyref closely. Curiously, on general election nights, she is said to go to bed. That illustrates the seriousness of the matter.
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  #519  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:13 PM
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When will we get the first exits?
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  #520  
Old 09-18-2014, 06:36 PM
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Martin @CourtierUK · 1m
Witchell says on BBC that The Queen will issue a statement tomorrow afternoon on #indyref.
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