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  #1101  
Old 10-01-2017, 08:53 AM
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Given the current situation in Catalonia one wonders what would happen with the monarchy if parts of Spain gained independence. Could the constitutional process initiated by such a thing happening lead to a republic?
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  #1102  
Old 10-01-2017, 09:29 AM
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That situation in Spain is interesting to watch.


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  #1103  
Old 10-02-2017, 01:55 AM
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Absolutely shocking pictures, how can you think that police violence can prevent anything. Catalans wanted to be heard, a majority possibly would have voted no anyway. Now this has escalated to no end and there will be worse tension than ever. Not only moderate Catalans are appalled but also the rest of Spain and the civilized world.
Catalans 'vote for independence' in 'illegal' referendum | Daily Mail Online

Felipe is sworn to political neutrality but has made clear that there is no other way than a unified Spain, same position like the central government in Madrid. But I am sure he strongly disagrees with any violence.
Rajoy is a hate figure for many now, I don't think this will reflect on Felipe in any way, but monarchy has never been popular in Catalonia, what could even be seen after the recent attacks when Felipe got booed, and it certainly won't get any better now.
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  #1104  
Old 10-02-2017, 04:28 AM
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AFAIK Cataluña was never an independent country. I do not see why every province and region in Europe should gain independence.

I do not think violence is the answer to anything and I wonder if Rajoy is able to stay on, considering the mess his government has made of this. It is unlikely that he can be helpful in a deescalation of the conflict, but the same goes for Puigdemont. Both men have been looking for confrontation, in the hope of electoral gain. Let's hope that moderate voices on both sides will stand up soon.

The Spanish constitution is clear, it is "based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards". The court-of-justice as such is correct in declaring the referendum illegal.

The only thing the king can do is to stay away from this mess. But in the end he is the symbol of Spain and as such his role will always be controversial to seperatists.
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  #1105  
Old 10-02-2017, 04:52 AM
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When you say it is in the Constitution - did the people approve the constitution in a referendum? How can the constitution be changed?

In Australia, for instance, our constitution was approved by a referendum to begin with and can only be changed via a referendum. Works well down here as it allows the entire population to have a say in any changes rather than simply a few elected people. In 44 referenda since Federation we have changed the constitution 8 times.

In a democracy surely the people should have a say in the rules by which they are governed?
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  #1106  
Old 10-02-2017, 04:52 AM
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Both are to blame and totally ruthless using the people as pawns for their own political power games. Compromise was never seriously discussed.

Puigdemont put a questionable populistic law through the Catalan Parliament, against the advice of independent legal experts or opposition. Alone with the majority of his own mandates, only thanks to a very specific election law. Less then half of the Catalans did not vote in favour if I recall correctly.

Puigdemont knew from the start that the referendum would only trigger a violent conflict with Madrid, that the constitutional judges would declare it illegal for Catalans to participate, and that the scandal would only benefit him, mobilizing his own troops, the other side left divided: those who boycot and those who say NO. With escalation, a majority of YES could be calculated.

Rajoy has done everything to become the hate figute of Catalans. He went before the Constitutional Court against a new autonomy law for Catalonia, with success. Then he blocked all requests from Barcelona to renegotiate the money transfers to Madrid. Regarding a referendum, he always said NO, without any empathy for the people. Instead of trying to find a compromise, he only came up with the law, prosecutors, judges, policemen making his dirty work. The massive use of police violence, injuring defenseless people with batons and rubber boots - far too much and unnecessary. Nobody in Europe would have recognized this referendum because it is unconstitutional and violates the principle of a free, secret or democratic election.

I know that the Scottish referendum is different, at first they allowed it because and overwhelming majority did not want to split from UK, but in the end it became too tight for politicians to be relaxed about it. Maybe it would have worked in Catalonia at an earlier stage, let them vote trusting they vote NO, not recognizing a YES anyway.
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  #1107  
Old 10-02-2017, 05:03 AM
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Thanks for the additional information DoM Indeed, both sides have been using people as pawns. The difference of course is that the Catalan government did not use force while the Spanish government did. Images of state thuggery will do nothing to improve the position of Madrid. This kind of violence is rare in our part of the world and thus rather shocking. We even saw the national police beating firemen who tried to protect demonstrators.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iluvbertie
When you say it is in the Constitution - did the people approve the constitution in a referendum? How can the constitution be changed?
The constitution can be changed indeed, but it can only be done at a national level. A regional party, representing only a few percent of the Spanish electorate, can not change the constitution on its own. The 1978 constitution was approved in referendum, also by the people of Catalunya.

Since the Spanish constitution was ratified in 1978, it has been amended twice. It can be changed by a majority in the Cortes, though I do not know how large the majority needs to be. Seperatists are free to try to gain seats in the Cortes and work with other parties to achieve their goal.
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  #1108  
Old 10-02-2017, 05:20 AM
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They had violence, because violence is what the Catalan independentists wanted to sell their story... everything was organized.

It is not the Spanish government who prohibits, it is the Spanish Constitution, the laws and the judges who have declared that this was an illegal activity.

A judge of a court in Catalonia, has been who ordered days ago that polling stations should be closed and voting avoided.

It was the Catalan government who encouraged families to lock up with their children in schools to prevent the court order being enforced, and some have reported in the press how they were instructed to confront the police (there are allegations in the public prosecutor's office for this use of children). It was the police dependent on the Catalan government who did not comply with the order of the judge (they are also reported in court for not doing their job), forcing the Spanish police to act. That police did not act by direct order of the Spanish government, acted like judicial police by order of a judge of a court of Catalonia.

The millions of Catalans who yesterday decided not to participate in this lie are not heard, and the independence government seems to continue committed to non-complying with Catalan, Spanish and international law.

It is not strange that they boo the King, he represents the Spanish State, the enemy. The Catalan government controls education, and children have been educated in hatred of Spain... many families must struggle because their children are not allowed to study in Spanish. In Catalan television they insult the Royal Family and Spain constantly. The Catalan independents burn flags of Spain and photos of the King and nothing happens.

It is also true that all this has also had a reaction in the rest of Spain. Millions of Spaniards have taken their flag to the balcony, something that until now was only usual in sporting events. In the last public events of the king, he was accompanied by cheers and many flags of Spain.

Many Spaniards are tired, for decades Basque and Catalan independentist have gained benefits threatening to organize things like these. By the electoral system, their votes are worth more than the votes of other regions of Spain. They increasingly have more independence, more concessions, more money (in the end it was always solved with more money)... and the rest of Spaniards have to shut up.

They demand rights that are above the rights of the rest of Spaniards, they do not comply with the law that the rest of the Spaniards are obliged to comply with.

They pretend to impose the opinion of 2 million Catalans, to the 3 million who did not participate in this and that of almost 40 million Spaniards .

In order to change the most important articles of the Spanish Constitution, it is necessary that 2/3 of the Parliament approve it, and that these changes be submitted to the vote of all Spaniards. No political party, no government can change the Constitution if most of the Spaniards disagree.
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  #1109  
Old 10-02-2017, 07:00 AM
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Spanish National Day Celebrations 2017 will be one to watch seeing as what happened in Barcelona yesterday.

Little wonder there are no official acts this week.
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  #1110  
Old 10-02-2017, 07:36 AM
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I think to go in front of the cameras to say 'there was no referendum' and talk about law and police and justice when looking at people being beaten bloody is as deluded as to say 'we have won the referendum and will have our own state'.
Nobody seems to learn anything. The scenes were horrible, I saw on TV this morning a man holding a flower up to a policeman and he was hit straight into the face. Excessive force will lead to nothing, as we can see in many examples before.
There has to be a compromise of some kind, we'll see what role the King can play.
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  #1111  
Old 10-02-2017, 08:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke of Marmalade View Post
I think to go in front of the cameras to say 'there was no referendum' and talk about law and police and justice when looking at people being beaten bloody is as deluded as to say 'we have won the referendum and will have our own state'.

I agree.

And frankly, I don't see why Catalans should not be allowed such a referendum.
It's fine to say well, it's due to the Constitution, but from what I have read, it would be a labor of Hercules to get the Constitution changed.

In effect, Catalonia is being held prisoner, and that seems very wrong.
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  #1112  
Old 10-02-2017, 09:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iluvbertie View Post
When you say it is in the Constitution - did the people approve the constitution in a referendum? How can the constitution be changed?
Yes, the Spanish constitution was approved in a referendum in 1978. A constitutional amendment has to be passed by a qualified majority of three-fifths of the members of each of the two houses of Paraliament, Once an amendment is passed by Parliament, it is submitted to a national referendum for ratification if so requested by at least one tenth of the members of each house.

In other words, Catalonia cannot unilaterally declare its independence under the constitution, but , to put matters in context, Scotland couldn't do it either under the British constitution. Nevertheless, the UK government agreed to let Scotland hold a legally non-binding referendum, upon which, if the result had been a majority for secession, the UK and the Scottish governments would enter into negotiations for an orderly separation that would then be properly ratified by the UK parliament.
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  #1113  
Old 10-02-2017, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marengo View Post
AFAIK Cataluña was never an independent country. I do not see why every province and region in Europe should gain independence.
I suppose the Netherlands should revert then to Spanish rule. After all, it had never been independent before the 16th century and its unilateral declaration of independence in 1581 (?) was clearly illegal, wasn't it ?

Now, seriously, Catalonia was part of the Kingdom of Aragon, which entered into personal union with the Kingdom of Castile in the late 15th century, but remained a separate kingdom until the Bourbon king Philip V issued the Nueva Plantas decrees between 1707 and 1716. So, in a sense, you can say Catalonia, together with other parts of Spain, was once independent.

As for the future of the monarchy, I am afraid that, if Catalonia leaves and becomes a republic, the rest of the country will soon descend into republicanism as well.
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  #1114  
Old 10-02-2017, 09:40 AM
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IMO it was a mistake by the Spanish Government to try to aggressively prevent the [admittedly] illegal vote yesterday. The images of violence by the Guardia Civil will have done NO good to Spain's image worldwide.
A far better response would have been to let the vote proceed peacefully then just ignore the result - after all an illegal referendum in nothing more than an opinion poll...

This mornings communique from the European Commission shows that they will not recognise an independent Catalonia, and that if Barcelona announces secession it will get no support whatsoever, except from the secessionist parties in other countries like the SNP [Scotland] Sein Fein [ Northen Ireland] and Parti Quebecois [Canada].
Thus the unity of Spain will be preserved for now, but who can say what the future holds...
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  #1115  
Old 10-02-2017, 09:43 AM
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Well I believe National Day we will see a Madrid full of flags and people like you have not seen in years. In the last week thousands of citizens in all the cities of Spain have taken the flag to the balcony in support of the State. The sale of flags has multiplied, surpassing even when Spain won the World Cup.

Catalonia has its own Police, and the work of the Spanish Police and Civil Guard are residual there. If yesterday they were there it is because a judge ordered them to be there. The Catalan police refused to comply with the orders of the judge, there were no Catalan riot police, and asked the Spanish police for support to go to the most conflictive polling stations. Not complying with the law, and lying to the Spanish police ... they got what they wanted, to show the world how cruel the Spanish state was. Recently the Catalan government ceased to the head of its police for not being willing to make this, and they placed one of them. The policemen who were against this illegality were marked and called fascists.

The Spaniards have seen many demonstrations in Catalonia, we have seen on the street the anti-system that are now in government and we have seen their police ... and the images were much more brutal.

They have broken with legality. They do not want dialogue, the current Catalan government is formed among others by antisystems, they want the total break. They can not demand that the Spanish government pass over the law and all Spanish citizens to give them what they want.

Now they have two options ... or they declare independence unilaterally against all national and international laws ...or there will be a confrontation between the members of the Catalan government and the anti-system can rebel and then we will see more violence, of them against them.
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  #1116  
Old 10-02-2017, 09:47 AM
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I agree with Mirabel and Mbruno that it would be more reasonable to offer a way to independence if a region truly wants it (not just in Spain but in general). Just blocking every attempt and even considering brutal police force 'justice' will do exactly the opposite of what is intended. I am quite sure the separatist movement has won quite some support because of the Madrid response.

Given that the king has not spoken against the violence, I am afraid he is more in agreement with preventing the referendum (and independence) at all costs than most royalwatchers outside of Spain would like to think.

I do think that the requirements to become and independent country need to be high given the consequences. Two rounds of voting requiring 2/3 majorities including a very clear path of what it means/what the new state would look like - this could be worked out between the first and second round - (with the costs of the whole independization process being largely for the region that wants to become independent).
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  #1117  
Old 10-02-2017, 10:02 AM
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Quote:
he is more in agreement with preventing the referendum (and independence)
His Majesty is hardly likely to favour the dissolution of his Kingdom, is he ?
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  #1118  
Old 10-02-2017, 10:44 AM
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The King's duty is to support the Constitution and the law.

Spain as every democracy has its laws, and laws are not changed at the whim of a minority. If they want referemdum and independence, they must obtain the necessary parliamentary support.

Another problem is that half of the Catalans do not want independence. The successive Catalan governments have been favorable to the independentist ideas, so these people, who are almost half of the population are quite abandoned and they are the silent part of this story, the millions who yesterday did not go to vote and that in their daily life are marked and called fascists for not defending independence.
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  #1119  
Old 10-02-2017, 10:45 AM
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Casa Real remained silent during the whole day of the referendum

https://translate.google.com/transla...013498621.html
Silencio de la Corona en el referéndum independentista de Cataluña

IMO as much as the Spanish government is legally right, it bears great responsibility for the fact that the situation is totally hopeless. With his ignorance of the nationalist ideas of the Catalans and their immobility, the Spanish PM has been the best campaigner of the Catalan cause. By refusing to react politically to the striving of a considerable part of the Catalans for more autonomy for years, he has given the separatist the best ammunition free of charge and presented Spain as an authoritarian state.

Even though there are more flags than usual to be expected in Madrid, Madrid is not Spain just as much as London is not England and Paris is not France. You cannot keep a country together by force of the elite in the capital in the long run.

We will see if Rajoy will go one step further and arrest those who are responsible for the referendum, eg Puigdemont himself.

The King or the EU will probably and hopefully condemn the violence but will stand by the law of the state, there is no other option.
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  #1120  
Old 10-02-2017, 10:56 AM
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The statement from the EU commission, and a map which probably explains its stance...
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