Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Winnie]

He has been very nasty towards Letizia publicly ,the fact that he heaps praise Juan Carlos speaks volumes!

He knows no more than anyone else. He does not have a crystal ball to look into the future. He has the right to his opinion but reading many of his remarks over the years, I truly believe a bit of deep jealousy is in his soul re the Spanish Royals. Shame.

 

[Kitty1224]

The Spanish and Belgian monarchy will last longer than the monarchies of Sweden or the Netherlands. Exactly because Spain and Belgium have complicated state structures, any change will have consequences for the core existence and unity of the state itself. In Sweden or the Netherlands, both rich, efficient, smoothly run unitary states with a strong central government, a toppling of the Bernadottes or the Orange-Nassaus will not threat the very existence of these states. I do not have the slightest worry for the Borbóns in Spain or the Sachsen-Coburgs in Belgium.

Agree to disagree.

 

[An Ard Ri]

He knows no more than anyone else. He does not have a crystal ball to look into the future. He has the right to his opinion but reading many of his remarks over the years, I truly believe a bit of deep jealousy is in his soul re the Spanish Royals. Shame.

He's looking for attention a bit like Letizia's less than delightful aunt Henar who is constantly tweeting anti monarchist bile.

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

Agree to disagree.

And your arguments are....?

An end to the monarchy in Sweden or the Netherlands is a system reset. An end to the monarchy in Spain and Belgium is a system destruction. Simply because the route to get rid of the monarchy is also the chance for separatists to get rid of the hated central state. Exactly this threat to the core existence of states, is a blessing for the monarchies there.

Now I am interested in your arguments why you think that a throne in Spain is less secure than in other monarchies?

 

[Kitty1224]

And your arguments are....?

An end to the monarchy in Sweden or the Netherlands is a system reset. An end to the monarchy in Spain and Belgium is a system destruction. Simply because the route to get rid of the monarchy is also the chance for separatists to get rid of the hated central state. Exactly this threat to the core existence of states, is a blessing for the monarchies there.

Now I am interested in your arguments why you think that a throne in Spain is less secure than in other monarchies?

I try to give my reasons in the past in these forums and you guys are extremely bias. So Agree to disagree.

 

[Blog Real]

I think that all monarchies are deeply rooted in their countries and still have a long life ahead of them.

Spain: The government does not want the end of the monarchy in Spain because it knows that this would be the beginning of the end of Spain as we know it. It would be very difficult to continue the state itself if that happens. The various states that make up Spain would break up forever.

Denmark: The Danish monarchy is one of the most popular and safest in Europe and has everything to have a long life ahead. The royal family is also very popular and loved by the Danes.

Sweden: Another very popular monarchy. Victoria, the Crown Princess, is also very popular just like the Kings. It has everything to have a long life ahead of this monarchy.

Norway: It is one of the safest and most popular monarchies in Europe. The King is very popular and the Heir Princes are not as popular as the king but people like them.

Belgium: Live the same situation as the Spanish monarchy. If the monarchy ends, Belgium itself will disappear as we know it.

Holland: It is one of the most popular monarchies in Europe and the Kings are very popular and loved by the Dutch. It has everything to have a long life ahead of this monarchy.

United Kingdom: It is perhaps the most popular monarchy in Europe. This monarchy will hardly be abolished in the coming decades.

Luxembourg: This monarchy is very popular and the population is very fond of the Grand Ducal Family. Last year a petition was made to refer to the monarchy but that petition failed.

Monaco and Liechtenstein: There are virtually no Republican movements in these countries.

 

[Kitty1224]

I think that all monarchies are deeply rooted in their countries and still have a long life ahead of them.

Spain: The government does not want the end of the monarchy in Spain because it knows that this would be the beginning of the end of Spain as we know it. It would be very difficult to continue the state itself if that happens. The various states that make up Spain would break up forever.

Denmark: The Danish monarchy is one of the most popular and safest in Europe and has everything to have a long life ahead. The royal family is also very popular and loved by the Danes.

Sweden: Another very popular monarchy. Victoria, the Crown Princess, is also very popular just like the Kings. It has everything to have a long life ahead of this monarchy.

Norway: It is one of the safest and most popular monarchies in Europe. The King is very popular and the Heir Princes are not as popular as the king but people like them.

Belgium: Live the same situation as the Spanish monarchy. If the monarchy ends, Belgium itself will disappear as we know it.

Holland: It is one of the most popular monarchies in Europe and the Kings are very popular and loved by the Dutch. It has everything to have a long life ahead of this monarchy.

United Kingdom: It is perhaps the most popular monarchy in Europe. This monarchy will hardly be abolished in the coming decades.

Luxembourg: This monarchy is very popular and the population is very fond of the Grand Ducal Family. Last year a petition was made to refer to the monarchy but that petition failed.

Monaco and Liechtenstein: There are virtually no Republican movements in these countries.

Still don’t know about Spain and the UK(in like 50 years).

 

[Blog Real]

BREAKING

Popular consultations on the monarchy in more than twenty Spanish universities

Hundreds of people have participated until Thursday at noon in the symbolic referendum on the monarchy that takes place this Thursday at the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) organized by a student assembly, an initiative that will be replicated in other 25 Spanish universities until the February, and that follows the wake of popular votes held recently in Madrid neighborhoods like Vallecas or Vicálvaro.

Some 70 people, including teachers, have set up polling stations in the nine faculties of the Madrid university, most of them located on the campus of Cantoblanco, north of the capital, from 10 am. Up to 20 hours on this Thursday will be able to vote students, professors and workers of the UAM.

"Are you in favor of abolishing the Monarchy as a form of State and establishing a Republic?" And "If yes, are you in favor of opening constituent processes to decide what kind of Republic?" These are the two questions that can be answered with a 'yes' or a 'no' in the consultation that is exceeding the expectations of the organizers.

"As we are the first university that organized it, we did not know how the people would respond, but we are very surprised", explains Paula, a student of Sciences and Languages ​​of Antiquity, at the table of the School of Philosophy and Letters where students flocked about 11 hours taking advantage of the rest between class and class.

In the attached faculty, that of the Magisterium, the organizers have met people waiting before 10 am to vote. "My teacher has started the class saying that today was a great day," says Olivia, who participates in the assembly that organizes the consultation to claim "to be able to decide on the State form".

"I think it's a very good initiative for students to organize themselves and for the University to become a center of reflection for society," says Marta, a professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, after depositing her ballot in the ballot box. He does so after a colleague who questions the organizers about the guarantees of the consultation. "I voted to say that I am against those who organize these things, it is immoral and they are against democratic systems," he explained.

At the table, on the other side of the urn, another teacher carries the account of participants, a hundred in the first hour. "It is the first step to reform the Constitution and abolish the monarchy to constitute a confederal republic," says Xosé, who teaches the subject of Economic Structure of Spain in the European Union. He is accompanied by David, a student who marks a cross with a marker in his hand to each participant in the voting.

"We can not ask for the DNI, this is a symbolic act. We trust in the good faith of the people and that they will not vote twice, "he explains. After the closing of the polls, the persons in charge of each table will meet at 21.00 hours in the Faculty of Sciences to do the scrutiny. "The polls are filling, good!" Exclaims a worker raising his thumb as he passes one of the tables.

https://www.republica.com/2018/11/2...bre-la-monarquia-en-la-universidad-autonoma/#

I ask the TRF Spaniards to keep us informed about what is happening in Spain.

 

[Muhler]

University students tend to be republican.

Because if you think rationally at the monarchy as an institution, it's an anachronism, anti-democratic and anti-egalitarian and seemingly doesn't serve a purpose that cannot logically be replaced by something else.

But monarchy cannot be viewed in a strictly logic context.

Because you can say the same thing about religion and the national state. - And how many are willing to abandon that?

 

[Blog Real]

University students tend to be republican.

Because if you think rationally at the monarchy as an institution, it's an anachronism, anti-democratic and anti-egalitarian and seemingly doesn't serve a purpose that cannot logically be replaced by something else.

But monarchy cannot be viewed in a strictly logic context.

Because you can say the same thing about religion and the national state. - And how many are willing to abandon that?

I realize that. In Denmark most students look at the monarchy?

The monarchy has to be seen as something that should unite a country and as a way of preserving its traditions and customs. It should not be seen as a form of disunity.
Despite this some Spanish students are in favor of the monarchy for what I have seen on the internet.
The Kings of Spain must from now on be closer to the youth and the students so that they perceive the value of the monarchy.

 

[Muhler]

I realize that. In Denmark most students look at the monarchy?

The monarchy has to be seen as something that should unite a country and as a way of preserving its traditions and customs. It should not be seen as a form of disunity.
Despite this some Spanish students are in favor of the monarchy for what I have seen on the internet.
The Kings of Spain must from now on be closer to the youth and the students so that they perceive the value of the monarchy.

I believe most university students in DK are republicans - out of principle - rather than based on a personal dislike or deep wish to abolish the institution.
At present at least you would IMO have to look long and hard to find a similar movement at universities here in DK.

However, to me it seems like the Spanish university students are just as much against the system in Spain, as it is right now and wish to reform it. That of course includes the monarchy that is being seen, at least recently as very much a part of the system. The Catalan question springs to mind as an example where the King had, on behalf of the Spanish government and Parliament (and perhaps himself personally), to take sides in a direct political way.

 

[lula]

The intentions of the independentists and Podemos are clear for years, they want to break with the current Spanish constitutional system, divide Spain and acquire more power. The Monarchy is therefore their worst enemy, because it represents what they want to end with.

For some years, the conservative government of Rajoy was the enemy, and the cases of corruption for what was affected, helped the populist discourse.

When Sanchez and the leftist arrive to the Government with the support of Podemos and the independentists, they need a new enemy, and that enemy is the Monarchy. Podemos is stuck in the polls, has many internal problems, people no longer believe so blindly in their promises ... so the promise of the republic is the way to retain their left-communist electorate.

They are doing a brutal campaign, promoting those referendums, creating scandal of everything, spreading fake news... every opportunity is approached. Next week is the 40th anniversary of the Constitution, and they are doing everything possible to boycott it, and they will attack the Monarchy in every way they can.

 

[Dman]

Is the Spanish Monarchy still needed?
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/26/inenglish/1543234577_165448.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Mbruno]

Is the Spanish Monarchy still needed?
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/26/inenglish/1543234577_165448.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

If Pablo Iglesias wants a Spanish republic, I suggest he follows the procedure outlined in the Spanish constitution to get that, i.e. pass a constitutional amendment twice (first in principle then in detail) in the two houses of the Spanish Parliament by a majority of two thirds and with a general election in between the two votes, and then put it to a national popular referendum.

Good luck to him overcoming that constitutional hurdle ! Personally, I find it very unlikely that it will happen at least in this or the next generation.

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica]
Article 168 [Revision]
(1) When a total revision of the Constitution is proposed, or a partial revision thereof, affecting the Preliminary Title, Chapter II, Section 1 of Title I, or Title II, the principle shall be approved by a two-thirds majority of the members of each Chamber, and the Parliament shall immediately be dissolved.
(2) The Chambers elected must ratify the decision and proceedto examine the new Constitutional text, which must be approved by a two-thirds majority of the members of both Chambers.
(3) Once the amendment has been passed by the Parliament, it shall be submitted to ratification by referendum.
[/FONT]

 

[Muhler]

I actually agree with the person who has made a comment to the article.

The article IMO was from a staunch republican, who wish to introduce the republic regardless, rather than the monarchy being such a big problem.
The "problems" presented with the monarchy, would be the same that a president of a republic, who has a constitutional role to play. - I.e. going against the political will of the author.

 

[Blog Real]

To end the monarchy is to end Spain. The Spanish provinces were soon to achieve their independence. Monarchy is necessary, yes, for several reasons.

 

[Frozen Royalist]

Another week, another poll.

Another poll was released on the popularity of the Spanish monarchy with 48% in favor of a Third Spanish Republic, 35% in favor of continuing the Kingdom of Spain and 17% undecided. 60% of people between 18 and 24 are in favor of Spain becoming a republic. I don't know what to think of these polls anymore, they claim widespread condemnation for the monarchy while I've seen photos of thousands upon thousands of people greeting the king and his family with happy smiles, keep in mind there are young people in these photos, and waving the Spanish flag like patriots. The poll was from YouGov if that helps people think more or less of the poll.

I know people are entitled to their opinions and all but just replacing the king with a president wouldn't really make much of a difference, if any. You'd essentially be giving the powers of the king to a president who will definitely be tied to a political party, thus making the head of state political. I predict that the Third Spanish Republic would lead to the break up of Spain which nobody would want, not the EU, not NATO, and probably not the UN except for maybe Iran, knowing those guys.

I really hope this poll was just a preferential one where they are just asking for their "ideal" Spain rather than trying to make it a reality. I get that monarchies aren't what they used to be and the idea of choosing who gets to be leader may seem attractive but I wish that the Spanish Republicans would stop and just think if this would help out a multi-lingual nation or not. I don't think the national football team and the Church would be enough of a unifying factor to keep the nation together if the monarchy is removed. There are better ways of improving Spain is what I'd say to the Republicans.

-Frozen Royalist

Here is the website:
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2018...-monarchy-and-creating-republic/#.XA2hFhNKhZ0

P.S. You know I think I'm starting to be more coolheaded about this sort of thing, I still feel like I made a bit of a fool of myself when I blew up as a result of the previous poll. Being such a history nerd is probably why I'm such a monarchist in the first place, I just hate seeing things get swept under the rug for no good logical reason except for the sake of "change".

 

[Tatiana Maria]

It is interesting that numerous monarchists also advocate a referendum, seeing as the percentage in favor of holding a referendum on the monarchy far exceeds the percentage in favor of a republic.

[...]

The sympathy towards the Princess of Asturias pushes that 76.7% request an early constitutional reform to end the privileges of the male heirs. A broad majority in all age groups is favorable to it. In addition, 72.8% of citizens ask to be educated as their father.

[...]

https://translate.google.pt/transla...s-espanoles-ve-a-leonor-como-reina-DI19779695

http://img.kiosko.net/2018/09/09/es/larazon.750.jpg

I would imagine that for the 76.7% who favor an early constitutional reform to end male privileges, it is a matter of equality rather than sympathy towards the Princess of Asturias, as the possibility of Leonor being displaced by a younger brother is almost zero.

 

[Frozen Royalist]

I think women should be allowed on the Spanish throne too and it is nice to see that a majority support the crown princess at the moment.

But seriously though, what the heck is with these wonky polls? You'd think that Podemos, the only truly openly Republican party in Spain, would be slammed packed with young Spanish voters. Is it not too much of a priority for the young Republicans? Is the margin of error a bit of an issue in Spain when it comes to opinion polls? I can't make heads or tails in this situation because I recall some polls and articles saying that the popularity of the monarchy was strengthened because of the Catalan crisis while at the same time I hear it was weakened, I'm honestly confused. I hear that the king is greeted by cheering crowds while polls are published showing that most people around my age, I'm in my early 20s, want him and the whole royal family gone. Do Spaniards want a Third Republic or not? Either you do or you don't, this isn't rocket science guys.

I love Spain but their opinion polls are just mindboggling. You'd think that young people would like the idea of having a reigning queen, it's pretty much one of the easier ways of getting a female head of state after all.

But seriously, what do Spainairds want?

-Frozen Royalist

https://www.dw.com/en/spain-asks-is-monarchy-right-for-us/a-46664399

Here is another article about the monarchy vs. republic debate as of late. Must be a slow day in Spain for these to be published, haven't really heard much about Catalonia in the last few days.

-Frozen Royalist

 

[tamta]

Anyone can give us an insight on how the Sanchez government proclaiming elections and their prospect impact the position and popularity of Felipe and the monarchy..?

 

[Frozen Royalist]

Well, despite all the worry I've had in my previous posts, I don't think there will much of an impact on the popularity of the monarchy in the next election.

Yes, Prime Minister Sanchez is a Republican but I don't see the PSOE, the Spanish Socialist Worker's Party, really making a stance for establishing a Spanish Federal Republic when they gain more seats according to the opinion polls I've seen. They're left wing with many anti-monarchists but they prefer the system that Spain has.

Unidos Podemos, considering they're losing their support to the PSOE and Vox, I don't see Pablo Iglesias getting his republic anytime soon. Sure it is likely they'll form a coalition with the PSOE but I don't see this affecting the monarchy personally. I think that support will probably recover again (I'm still flabbergasted about the drop in support because of the Catalan crisis, doesn't the rest of Spain want Catalonia to remain part of Spain? Wasn't the king speaking in their interests back in his 2017 speech? I just don't get it.)

Considering Vox, I don't see them advocating for a republic, most of their supporters wave around the flag of Spain proudly, which talks about Spain's status as a monarchy if you understand the colors and symbols on the flag. However, I'm worried about their anti-feminist stance because the king only has two daughters. What I'm saying is that I'm worried that Vox might not allow the king's oldest daughter to ascend the throne when the time comes and give it to his, pardon my French, poor excuse of a nephew instead. This will cause the monarchy to lose support if this were to happen.

And the People's Party and Citizens largely support retaining the monarchy, so no point talking about them.

The separatist parties are the only ones with a republic on their mind.

In conclusion, it is the Far-Left and the separatists who really have abolishing the monarchy on their minds. With Podemos losing support, I think the separatists are the only real threat at the moment. Altogether, Vox, the PSOE, the People's Party, and the Citizens (the parties not interested in establishing a republic at the moment) will make up roughly 75% of the vote according to opinion polls, while Podemos and the separatists make up the rest. Parties/coalitions need 2/3 of the votes in order to initiate a referendum, despite the support for the monarchy according to the questionably accurate polls at the moment there isn't a chance for a monarchy or republic referendum happening anytime soon.

But in all seriousness, separatism in North America and Europe never really made sense to me because of nations being more powerful together. I mean Catalonia, Flanders, Quebec, and Scotland, in my opinion, would be shooting themselves in the foot if they gain independence. Catalonia would be outside of the European Union and the Eurozone automatically if they gain independence so why take the risk? What, for the sake of ego, not paying for people less fortunate, lies, and having a slightly different and yet similar language and culture? I just don't understand Catalan nationalism/separatism.

-Frozen Royalist

P.S. I'm surprised the Cuban government isn't suing the Catalan separatists for ripping off their flag

 

[Muhler]

Thanks, Frozen Royalist.

Interesting analysis.

What does the law say? It is possible for a government to by-pass Leonor?

If she continue to be a the quiet sensible person we've known her to be so far, who has been groomed for her role all her life, what arguments could they possible use to by-pass Leonor? Especially since the concept of a formidable queen is not something that is unknown in Spanish history!
Also, wouldn't they automatically alienate half the population (the women) not to mention those who did not vote for the government?

I agree with you, politically there is no need to rock the boat in regards to the monarchy. As long as that works works quietly and without scandals - leave it well alone! That's a political no-go zone!

These years nationalism is on the rise, for various reasons. One reason IMO is the pendulum effect. After a period with globalism, which doesn't work that well in every respect, there would almost inevitably be a period with nationalism - which won't work that well either...

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I don't think there will be a lot of impact. Why would they seriously get rid of the monarchy at this stage. It's good to have it and serves many purposes, from serious to fluffy and as a buffer where everybody can dump their complaints.

I think it will be increasingly difficult for the person who has to do the job, being King of Spain in no fun for Felipe and his family, living a life between a rock and a hard place with the public watching and people waiting for you to snap. Felipe has visibly aged in the last 10 years or so, and the job is for life.

Leonor will have additional pressure as she will be Queen in a Men's world, she has to give birth to children etc etc and will be judged by her looks on a daily basis something Felipe does not have to worry about.

 

[Mbruno]

Thanks, Frozen Royalist.

Interesting analysis.

What does the law say? It is possible for a government to by-pass Leonor?

Leonor will be by-passed only if King Felipe has a legitimate son. The order of succession to the Crown (by cognatic male-preference primogeniture) is enshrined in the constitution and could be changed in principle only by a constitutional amendment, which, as I explained in a previous post, is extremely difficult to pass.


There would be another simpler possibility though to by-pass Leonor: she could renounce her place in the line of succession, in which case Infanta Sofía would automatically become the heir and hold the title of Princess of Asturias. A renunciation can be ratified by an organic law, which requires only the approval of a majority (50 % plus one) in each of the Houses of Parliament, and is therefore much easier to pass than a constitutional amendment.

 

[Blog Real]

The monarchy is not in danger at this time in Spain. This is not a subject spoken at the moment in the press or by political parties. Princess Leonor will assume, when the time comes, her duties as Princess of Asturias and will certainly be supported by the government. The monarchy is the only thing that unites Spain at this time, without it Spain will cease to exist as we know it and the government knows this.

 

[tamta]

Thank you all for the responses.
They are very timely -especially after today's elections...

 

[Frozen Royalist]

Well, there is some good news for the future of the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Spain. There was a poll recently with more people in Catalonia in favor of remaining part of Spain then becoming a separate nation. Plus Separatist parties only gained 39.4% of the vote for the Catalan Parliament (FR, ERC, and JuntsxCat). Fun fact, the ERC (who are moderates in favor of negotiating with the government unlike the JuntsxCat) got most of the separatist votes. Even though Podemos says it supports the rights to self-determination (It got about 14.9% of the vote in Catalonia), I don't see this going anywhere at the moment if they wish to form a government with the PSOE.

-Frozen Royalist

P.S. I really do hope Spain is going to have a bright future from here on out, I really do.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/majority-of-catalans-oppose-bid-for-independe-618389.html

 

[Mbruno]

So it looks like that, after repeatedly denying he would do it, Pedro Sanchez has finally agreed to form a coalition government with Podemos ministers in the cabinet as long as Pablo Iglesias is not a part of it.

Pedro Sanchez recently came out as a republican, but claimed he was satisfied with "Felipe VI's monarchy" as an acceptable compromise (at least for now). Could Podemos , however, push for a republican constitutional referendum now that they are about to become junior partners in the government? I know the coalition government , including the separatist and nationalist parties, doesn't have the required two-thirds majority in Parliament to pass a republican constitutional amendment, but still what do the Spanish TRF members think ?

 

[Stefan]

So it looks like that, after repeatedly denying he would do it, Pedro Sanchez has finally agreed to form a coalition government with Podemos ministers in the cabinet as long as Pablo Iglesias is not a part of it.

Pedro Sanchez recently came out as a republican, but claimed he was satisfied with "Felipe VI's monarchy" as an acceptable compromise (at least for now). Could Podemos , however, push for a republican constitutional referendum now that they are about to become junior partners in the government? I know the coalition government , including the separatist and nationalist parties, doesn't have the required two-thirds majority in Parliament to pass a republican constitutional amendment, but still what do the Spanish TRF members think ?

A change of the Constitution would need another vote with 2/3 majority in the Parliament followed by a referendum so nt as easy to do something.

 

[Blog Real]

So it looks like that, after repeatedly denying he would do it, Pedro Sanchez has finally agreed to form a coalition government with Podemos ministers in the cabinet as long as Pablo Iglesias is not a part of it.

Pedro Sanchez recently came out as a republican, but claimed he was satisfied with "Felipe VI's monarchy" as an acceptable compromise (at least for now). Could Podemos , however, push for a republican constitutional referendum now that they are about to become junior partners in the government? I know the coalition government , including the separatist and nationalist parties, doesn't have the required two-thirds majority in Parliament to pass a republican constitutional amendment, but still what do the Spanish TRF members think ?

Even if the PSOE makes a coalition with the PODEMOS, and although the We can be a Republican party this will not affect the monarchy.
The monarchy is the only thing that unites Spain, if they want to change the constitution this would awaken several other movements and Spain, as we know it, would cease to exist.
It is very difficult to change the regime at this time and no one wants to touch on this matter, not even PODEMOS, because they know what can happen.
The monarchy is to last in Spain, the King is popular and got the monarchy to overcome all crises after the scandals of King Juan Carlos and Infanta Cristina and Iñaki.
I think, in my opinion, that there is no cause for concern right now.